MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
What's your take on Tavares per minute production then? For the price tag, it doesn't strike me as impressive. He's not getting 20-21mpg and 3+ minutes of PP time a night in Toronto.
The ****ing 2017-18 Season
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
What's your take on Tavares per minute production then? For the price tag, it doesn't strike me as impressive. He's not getting 20-21mpg and 3+ minutes of PP time a night in Toronto.
Wayward DP
Well-known member
I don't think Tavares justifies the risk.
And that is based on his age, production, career trajectory (i.e. he has already peaked), and expected contract.
I want to be clear, my opposition to signing Tavares is based largely on the term and AAV I think will be required. For 2 years, and any AAV, I am on board. But for anything 3+ years, I want no part of Tavares at $10m plus AAV.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Yeah, this.
Add to this that it does address a significant roster need and, well, I'm just not too keen on it.
In terms of UFA cap expenditures, it's not impact (good to see elite is no longer being used for Tavares) vs. depth. It's addressing roster weaknesses. Right now, it's RHD. Next season, RHD and, to a much lesser extent, LW.
leafman101
Well-known member
I think his p/60 production is great. Its just more Kessel/Benn/Tarasenko territory than Crosby/McDavid/Matthews/Malkin etc. Which is more than fine.
But again, it has to be good value. The Leafs won't be the highest bidder.
number17
Mod Squad
No we won't, and Tavares, assuming he leaves, will have to choose between a good but not the highest offer with a serious chance to contend for the cup for his 7 yrs here; or, take the most $$ to join a rebuilding team and hope they get it right in a few years time, and that he's still young enough to contribute in the playoff run by then.
JackBurton
Well-known member
Why the **** would Tavares stay? He'd be an idiot. That team is shit.
LeafGm
Well-known member
Even if you get him on the deal that gives you relative "value" compared to what he could've gotten in an open market...I'd still take a pass.
For me, I just don't want to invest that kind of cap space over 7 years to a problem we've already got more than solved, with players who are all younger, better or significantly less expensive than even a discounted John Tavares would be on the long-term deal he'll probably want.
We've already got the best 1-2-3 down the middle in the league (if you roll with Auston-Willy-Kadri), and we've got a bunch of good young forwards. The finite resources that you'd have to use up on him are better spent elsewhere.
For me, I just don't want to invest that kind of cap space over 7 years to a problem we've already got more than solved, with players who are all younger, better or significantly less expensive than even a discounted John Tavares would be on the long-term deal he'll probably want.
We've already got the best 1-2-3 down the middle in the league (if you roll with Auston-Willy-Kadri), and we've got a bunch of good young forwards. The finite resources that you'd have to use up on him are better spent elsewhere.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I still don’t see the argument for which other position the money is better spent on.
We don’t need D any more than we need a forward. With Liljegren, Borgman waiting in the wings, we’re set. Need a vet in the meantime? Sign another Hainsey for cheap.
Keep Willy on the wing and let JT anchor the second line. Let Kadri slide more into the third line shutdown with offensive bonus role.
If we go with Willy at center, who’s the backup if Matty, Willy, or Kadri get hurt? Have Tavares at C and then Willy becomes your backup C. Extreme depth up front and at C will win us cups.
We don’t need D any more than we need a forward. With Liljegren, Borgman waiting in the wings, we’re set. Need a vet in the meantime? Sign another Hainsey for cheap.
Keep Willy on the wing and let JT anchor the second line. Let Kadri slide more into the third line shutdown with offensive bonus role.
If we go with Willy at center, who’s the backup if Matty, Willy, or Kadri get hurt? Have Tavares at C and then Willy becomes your backup C. Extreme depth up front and at C will win us cups.
number17
Mod Squad
If Karlsson is an UFA today and is willing to sign with the leafs then sure, I'd rather give him the 7 years contract than Tavares, but we could be holding on to the money for a long, long time without any 1st unit D hitting the UFA market and is willing to sign here.
On the other hand, to say we don't need Tavares is a little premature. Keep in mind JVR (and his 30G) is leaving. Bozak's PP production is also leaving. It isn't just the fact we don't have much C depth on our team and in our system. It's also we have 2 top 9 Fs leaving the team and we have a chance to more than compensate for that loss without taking away from our prospects or picks.
And haven't we heard this song and dance before? When Pittsburgh traded for Pittsburgh 2 years ago we said they don't need another forward, they didn't need more scoring, they needed a dman? Instead of waiting for the white knight dman to hit the market they spent the money on adding to their strength. 2 years and 2 cups later it doesn't look like a bad choice at all.
Adding elite talent is never a mistake imo.
On the other hand, to say we don't need Tavares is a little premature. Keep in mind JVR (and his 30G) is leaving. Bozak's PP production is also leaving. It isn't just the fact we don't have much C depth on our team and in our system. It's also we have 2 top 9 Fs leaving the team and we have a chance to more than compensate for that loss without taking away from our prospects or picks.
And haven't we heard this song and dance before? When Pittsburgh traded for Pittsburgh 2 years ago we said they don't need another forward, they didn't need more scoring, they needed a dman? Instead of waiting for the white knight dman to hit the market they spent the money on adding to their strength. 2 years and 2 cups later it doesn't look like a bad choice at all.
Adding elite talent is never a mistake imo.
JVR is definitely going to get a sweet contract. But I really truly believe the leafs are going to miss him significantly.
I don't believe just anyone can do what he does, JVR has a sweet pair of mittens. Very few guys in the league can pull of some of the stuff he does.
Just when it seems like everyone is firing on all cylinders we'll need to re-tool with someone younger, less expensive, but definitely less talented.
I don't believe just anyone can do what he does, JVR has a sweet pair of mittens. Very few guys in the league can pull of some of the stuff he does.
Just when it seems like everyone is firing on all cylinders we'll need to re-tool with someone younger, less expensive, but definitely less talented.
Iknowenuff
Banned
The Johnsson kid is so set up for next year when JVR leaves. He is pretty much the opposite of JVR physically. He is small, quick and feisty. But like JVR, he can score.
Sure we will miss Bozak and JVR, I know I will. But cap world, is where we are at.
Strong AHL program, great drafting, and top end player development, its where you have to be top notch in todays NHL. You are going to lose some very, very good players, its inevitable.
JVR, in my mind has been set up very nicely by the Leafs, he has had the luxury this year of playing with some great linemates and teammates. I hope for his sake, his decision isn't just purely $, and that he signs with a team that has a shot at something.
Sure we will miss Bozak and JVR, I know I will. But cap world, is where we are at.
Strong AHL program, great drafting, and top end player development, its where you have to be top notch in todays NHL. You are going to lose some very, very good players, its inevitable.
JVR, in my mind has been set up very nicely by the Leafs, he has had the luxury this year of playing with some great linemates and teammates. I hope for his sake, his decision isn't just purely $, and that he signs with a team that has a shot at something.
leafman101
Well-known member
I don't agree with the notion that anything is "solved" therefore you shouldn't go after a specific position. Tavares is an upgrade on at best 11 of our forwards, and at worst, 9 of them. There is no universe where adding Tavares doesn't make the team significantly better. I mean right now Zach Hyman gets top ES minutes a game. There is unquestionably enough ice time for Tavares. Its like saying Pittsburgh shouldn't go after McDavid if they had a legitimate chance to get him because they already have the best centers in the league. Who cares? They can all play.
Trying to shoehorn your plan around needs is how you become Edmonton giving up the opportunity to have better players for a guy like Larsson or Lucic. Yes we would like to have an elite RD, but none are available, except maybe Karlsson (who the Leafs should 100% go after as priority #1 if possible). So does that mean you just don't try to improve the team? Or that you take a move that provides less gain and upside just because it fills a perceived need? Does signing Calrsson for $9 million make more sense than signing Tavares for $9 million because of positional need? No. The later is a better addition.
There is no magic equation to winning, e.g. 2 C + 1 W + 2 D = Cup. Its the teams with the best players that are the best. Look at Nashville. They hardly needed to add Subban with Josi, Ekholm and Ellis, and needed help up front. But they picked up Subban anyway. Because he is an awesome player that significantly improved the team. Pittsburgh didn't need another scorer. But Kessel was available to them so they jumped on it and is significantly improved the team.
Think of WAR. If you have a replacement level middle infield, and 3 of the best pitchers in the league, adding a 5 WAR pitcher is still more valuable than a 2 WAR second baseman, even though you "need" a second baseman more.
The teams with the best players are the best teams. And in the cap era even the best teams have holes. You should try to build the team with the greatest strengths, not the most filled holes.
The reality is, with the Leafs cap situation, they likely cannot sign Tavares for 7 years $12+ million. But if they can get him for a number that does work you will be hard pressed to make a more impactful addition. it is the same reason why they went after Stamkos even though they had Matthews-Nylander-Kadri-Marner-JVR etc. And they didn't even have Zaitsev, Hainsey, Dermott, Liljegren, Borgman in the picture on the blueline at that point.
Trying to shoehorn your plan around needs is how you become Edmonton giving up the opportunity to have better players for a guy like Larsson or Lucic. Yes we would like to have an elite RD, but none are available, except maybe Karlsson (who the Leafs should 100% go after as priority #1 if possible). So does that mean you just don't try to improve the team? Or that you take a move that provides less gain and upside just because it fills a perceived need? Does signing Calrsson for $9 million make more sense than signing Tavares for $9 million because of positional need? No. The later is a better addition.
There is no magic equation to winning, e.g. 2 C + 1 W + 2 D = Cup. Its the teams with the best players that are the best. Look at Nashville. They hardly needed to add Subban with Josi, Ekholm and Ellis, and needed help up front. But they picked up Subban anyway. Because he is an awesome player that significantly improved the team. Pittsburgh didn't need another scorer. But Kessel was available to them so they jumped on it and is significantly improved the team.
Think of WAR. If you have a replacement level middle infield, and 3 of the best pitchers in the league, adding a 5 WAR pitcher is still more valuable than a 2 WAR second baseman, even though you "need" a second baseman more.
The teams with the best players are the best teams. And in the cap era even the best teams have holes. You should try to build the team with the greatest strengths, not the most filled holes.
The reality is, with the Leafs cap situation, they likely cannot sign Tavares for 7 years $12+ million. But if they can get him for a number that does work you will be hard pressed to make a more impactful addition. it is the same reason why they went after Stamkos even though they had Matthews-Nylander-Kadri-Marner-JVR etc. And they didn't even have Zaitsev, Hainsey, Dermott, Liljegren, Borgman in the picture on the blueline at that point.
Last edited:
Iknowenuff
Banned
Great point leafman101. I was stunned at how hard we tried for Stamkos. It wasn't a very well kept Lou secret that affair. We didn't have what we have now. Behind us. But we still went after him.
Thus, I agree, I think Lou will be in on Tavares. Fairly strong.
Gotta say. If Vegas wins the Stanley Cup, it will be funny to see all the other GM's in the league trying to create an entire team of 2nd liners and six number 3 dmen. Still very much a copy and paste NHL.
Thus, I agree, I think Lou will be in on Tavares. Fairly strong.
Gotta say. If Vegas wins the Stanley Cup, it will be funny to see all the other GM's in the league trying to create an entire team of 2nd liners and six number 3 dmen. Still very much a copy and paste NHL.
leafman101
Well-known member
Tavares-Matthews-Hyman
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Nylander-Kapanen
Leivo-Goat-Brown
Martin
Dermott-Rielly
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Borgman-Hainsey/Liljegren
Carrick
Andersen
McElRoy
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Nylander-Kapanen
Leivo-Goat-Brown
Martin
Dermott-Rielly
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Borgman-Hainsey/Liljegren
Carrick
Andersen
McElRoy
leafman101
Well-known member
Thats the opposite of how the competition would describe it.
zeke
Well-known member
My issue is describing Tavares alongside Karlsson or Doughty as similar impact players.
imo they're just not. Tavares is a good first liner. Karlsson (health permitting) and Doughty are elite MVP calibre players. they're not the same.
Tavares is the McDonagh of centers. Except he'll have more than double the caphit.
imo they're just not. Tavares is a good first liner. Karlsson (health permitting) and Doughty are elite MVP calibre players. they're not the same.
Tavares is the McDonagh of centers. Except he'll have more than double the caphit.
leafman101
Well-known member
Agreed I'd much rather have Karlsson or Doughty.