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OT: The Official Toronto Raptors Thread

He was bad when it mattered, that’s why I don’t really care too much about seeing him go the other way.

But are we actually significantly better via this upgrade to actually have a shot?

we were already damn good in the regular season, and now we're even better.

more importantly, we have the kind of player that can lead us in the playoffs and make sure we don't choke like dogs and become a totally different team for some reason.

I'd wager we're now across-the-board favorites to come out of the east this year, and Kawhi even gives us a puncher's chance in the finals.

The other angle is, if they wanted to get rid of Demar anyway at some point soon to clear space for someone else (who?), this was a great deal to make. But if Kawhi walks, who replaces him?

you can't replace him. but at least we won't be paying Demar $28m.
 
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...eonard-trade-grades-do-spurs-raptors-win-deal


San Antonio Spurs: D

San Antonio must really like DeMar DeRozan.

In trying to understand the final permutation of this Spurs-Raptors deal, rumored since last week, San Antonio valuing DeRozan as the kind of star player other teams were unlikely to offer for Leonard in the final year of his contract is one of two possible explanations I see. Either the Spurs had become convinced that a trade had to be made before training camp because their relationship with Leonard had become irreparable and no other team was willing to offer a compelling package, or San Antonio values this package much differently than I do -- a disagreement that probably centers on DeRozan's value.

Toronto Raptors: A-

For the Raptors, giving up one of their nominal star players, a recent lottery pick and next year's first-round pick makes sense because they're in position to shake things up after getting swept each of the past two years. Perhaps LeBron heading West was all Toronto needed to perform better in the playoffs, but with the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers on the rise in the East, I agree with Masai Ujiri's willingness to take a bold risk to be able to get to the NBA Finals this season

If Leonard is healthy and reasonably motivated, the Raptors should be considered the best team in the East and the favorites to reach the Finals. I've already laid out all the reasons DeRozan wasn't as big a factor in Toronto's regular-season success as his scoring average and accolades would suggest. Swapping him for Leonard is a huge upgrade, and the Raptors have somehow also managed to get another valuable two-way wing in Green..

Alongside a healthy Leonard and promising second-year forward OG Anunoby, Green is somehow Toronto's third-best wing player. That gives new Raptors coach Nick Nurse the flexibility to deploy lineups with all three players together that are ideally suited to defend the NBA's best teams
 
This is the cost of failure in the NBA. I feel for Demar, dude clearly loved Toronto and wanted to be here, but when you flame out of the playoffs spectacularly year after year something has to give sooner or later.

He's just never been good for us in the playoffs. Over the last 3 seasons we've played 40 playoff games and his counting stats look pretty good. Something in the range of 22/4/4 but his shooting percentages drop across the board compared the regular season. Somehow his shooting volume goes up (thanks Coach Casey) despite this. In those 3 playoff runs, Demar has been worth a total of .8 Win Shares ffs, that's just embarrassing for a player of his calibre.

To put that into context, Lowry was worth 1.1 by himself in this 10 game playoff "run", and Val was worth .8. Fwiw, Val over that same 40 playoff games (32 actually due to injury) has been worth 2.7 wins

So I feel for Demar, but he has no one to blame other than himself.

With all of that said, I don't think we're the final destination for Kawhi. I'd be surprise if he was willing to report for training camp. I still see this move as a cherry on top of Masai's failure to add legitimate pieces to this core for years now, in addition to his not firing Casey after the sweep against the Wizards a couple of years ago.
 
Wouldn’t that be awesome. If he poops on his own trade value and then we have to flip him for parts that add up to less than Demar. If he gets flipped, I hope it’s because that was our plan, and not because he forced our hand.
 
This is the cost of failure in the NBA. I feel for Demar, dude clearly loved Toronto and wanted to be here, but when you flame out of the playoffs spectacularly year after year something has to give sooner or later.

He's just never been good for us in the playoffs. Over the last 3 seasons we've played 40 playoff games and his counting stats look pretty good. Something in the range of 22/4/4 but his shooting percentages drop across the board compared the regular season. Somehow his shooting volume goes up (thanks Coach Casey) despite this. In those 3 playoff runs, Demar has been worth a total of .8 Win Shares ffs, that's just embarrassing for a player of his calibre.

To put that into context, Lowry was worth 1.1 by himself in this 10 game playoff "run", and Val was worth .8. Fwiw, Val over that same 40 playoff games (32 actually due to injury) has been worth 2.7 wins

So I feel for Demar, but he has no one to blame other than himself.

With all of that said, I don't think we're the final destination for Kawhi. I'd be surprise if he was willing to report for training camp. I still see this move as a cherry on top of Masai's failure to add legitimate pieces to this core for years now, in addition to his not firing Casey after the sweep against the Wizards a couple of years ago.

it's not even about the playoffs, although that's huge.

but there was a flat-out legitimate argument to be made that we were better off even in the regular season with Demar coming off the bench rather than starting, and a real argument that VanVleet should start ahead of him this year.
 
but there was a flat-out legitimate argument to be made that we were better off even in the regular season with Demar coming off the bench rather than starting, and a real argument that VanVleet should start ahead of him this year.

I dig Fred and I'm far from DD's biggest fan...but no there isn't. Being able to feature as a high USG% player in the NBA is a lot different than being a role player on the court. A lot.

DD is a damn good player. A legitimate star level performer. Just not a superstar level performer in a league where pure ability wins. The team with the most talented top 2-3 players almost always wins in a 7 game series in the NBA.
 
Wouldn’t that be awesome. If he poops on his own trade value and then we have to flip him for parts that add up to less than Demar. If he gets flipped, I hope it’s because that was our plan, and not because he forced our hand.

I don't think this is that. I think LAL had clear issues with sending the pieces SAS wanted in conference. Dealing with Toronto removes that concern. Allegedly, Pop hung on up on Magic very early into the trade conversation when Magic called to try to work a deal for Kahwi. There is a ticking clock in Lakerland right now, and it's Lebron's biological clock. The Spurs just didn't seem willing to remotely entertain giving in to Kahwi's terrorist demands. That hurdle is now cleared and Kahwi is a much, much better piece to trade for young players than Demar ever was.

Don't be shocked if we turn around and flip Kahwi for Ingram and Kuzma.
 
I dig Fred and I'm far from DD's biggest fan...but no there isn't. Being able to feature as a high USG% player in the NBA is a lot different than being a role player on the court. A lot.

DD is a damn good player. A legitimate star level performer. Just not a superstar level performer in a league where pure ability wins. The team with the most talented top 2-3 players almost always wins in a 7 game series in the NBA.

eh.

Freddy was actually pretty high usage when he was on the court.

And even in the regular season, there were signs that we were better off with Fred starting.....and then in the playoffs, Demar had to be benched in 4th quarters in favor of Fred, because there was no more denying it.
 
eh.

Freddy was actually pretty high usage when he was on the court.

19% to 29%. They're almost playing 2 entirely different games. One is where the opposition defence has been working for days/weeks to learn your tendencies and coach has been scheming specifically on how to make your life more difficult, and the other game is playing off of that guy that the other coach has been seeing in his night terrors. Benefiting from playing in the extra space that the other guy creates just by being on the court.

And even in the regular season, there were signs that we were better off with Fred starting.....

Yeah, I'm telling you that this is flat out wrong. Wrong in a way that's almost embarrassing man, just stop.

and then in the playoffs, Demar had to be benched in 4th quarters in favor of Fred, because there was no more denying it.

There's a massive difference between what Demar was in the regular season vs what he was in the playoffs and the stats aren't lying here. Yeah, Demar was benched for being shit in the playoffs, that doesn't change the fact what when regular season Demar was on the floor, he was a legitimate feature player. A legitimate NBA star. Freddy is a lovely rotation piece, maybe even a legit starting point guard, but he's not a star shooting guard. It's not close, settle down.

Don't let your narrative blind you from the fact that Fred sucked in the playoffs too. He stood behind the 3 point line and chucked (72% of total FGA were 3's for Freddy in the playoffs) and hit a whole 28% of them. So yeah, there's lots of excused for Fred to suck. He was 23 in his 2nd playoffs, and was fresh off of a shoulder injury to his dominant arm. But facts are facts. Yeah, we benched Demar for Fred, but we didn't succeed when we did that either and Fred didn't exactly answer the bell.
 
It hurts to see DD go from the sentimental side of things, but it was time to move on.

Basketball-wise it’s a good short term move and even better long term move.

Long term this deal is great. Only had to trade their fourth or fifth most valued young asset. Pick heavily protected. And if the vision is rebuilding come 2020 offseason, the DD player 2020-21 player option is out of the way. They could also get a better idea on what to do with Lowry/Ibaka one year earlier, possibly getting something out of nothing for them if the rebuild starts earlier. For me, this deal is less about Kawhi then it is about moving on from DD while still giving yourself a chance short term.

Short term, the optics of the worst case scenario (Kawhi doing a repeat of last season) could be bad, but it could be argued the Raptors with a pouting non-playing Kawhi are in the same tier as they were before the trade. The goal for the Raptors will be trying to convince Kawhi to turn into MVP Kawhi and maybe squeeze a Finals appearance out of it. The East is wide open.

Even if the odds of things working out are low, I still love the risk. If it works out you’ve moved the Raptors up to the highest contender tier under the Warriors (aka the “Curry ankle roll injury away from legit contender” tier). If it doesn’t work out, you only hurt your reputation with the whole loyalty thing. And so what. It’s not like stars were coming to Toronto through UFA in the past anyway. Plus I think Masai’s eyeing Giannis in 2021. I doubt he looks at this move in the same negative light as other stars do.
 
19% to 29%. They're almost playing 2 entirely different games. One is where the opposition defence has been working for days/weeks to learn your tendencies and coach has been scheming specifically on how to make your life more difficult, and the other game is playing off of that guy that the other coach has been seeing in his night terrors.

Yeah, I'm telling you that this is flat out wrong. Wrong in a way that's almost embarrassing man, just stop.

nah thanks. your assurances aren't assuring.

there is no doubt whatsoever that there is a legit statistical argument to be made, most especially in crunch time, even during the regular season.



Don't let your narrative blind you from the fact that Fred sucked in the playoffs too. He stood behind the 3 point line and chucked (72% of total FGA were 3's for Freddy in the playoffs) and hit a whole 28% of them. So yeah, there's lots of excused for Fred to suck. He was 23 in his 2nd playoffs, and was fresh off of a shoulder injury to his dominant arm. But facts are facts. Yeah, we benched Demar for Fred, but we didn't succeed when we did that either and Fred didn't exactly answer the bell.

Fred was injured, and STILL better than Demar.
 
nah thanks. your assurances aren't assuring.

there is no doubt whatsoever that there is a legit statistical argument to be made, most especially in crunch time, even during the regular season.

Except there isn't. I mean, you're more than welcome to make it, but so far you haven't and just asserted that there is. There are arguments that the 2nd unit was better than the 1st unit to, but in basketball moreso than hockey usage and quality of competition is a real ****ing thing.

You'll never hear me complain about the change in styles between 1st and 2nd units, the 2nd unit played a much much better brand of basketball but that's largely on coaching man. You'll see when Demar goes to SAS and plays efficiently this year under Pop. Demar's biggest problem was the coach who consistently tried to treat him like he was prime Jordan/Kobe. He wasn't close and should never have been expected to shoulder that type of load.





Fred was injured, and STILL better than Demar.

Except he wasn't better, he was actually worse in the playoffs than Demar. Demar put up a very mediocre .511TS% with 31.5% USG, Fred put up a downright awful .482 TS% with 18.5% USG. Go across the board statistically. Win Shares? DD was a terrible .023 WS/48, Fred was a may as well stayed the **** home -.006 WS/48.

BPM? yeah, Fred was worse than Demar. Demar's ****ing AST% was better than the lifetime point guards AST%, and so was his AST/TO

I love Fred, and hate having to shit on him here, but you're building a Zeke timeline narrative regarding Demar that you and you alone lived through apparently. Demar failed at being a superstar player, or even a star player in the playoffs for us. But he wasn't what you're claiming he was, and neither was Fred.
 

This was a pretty good article, definitely shifted me somewhat.

I didn't realize Demar only has two years left on his deal. I suppose you could just assume he'd sign an extension and so he was still a long term asset and not a risk to walk, but worth another huge long term deal? Not with those playoff performances.

Assuming Kawhi actually plays this year and stays, then it's a pretty great deal. If he stays and signals his intent to leave and we deal him to LA for some great return, then it's a pretty great deal. If he walks for nothing and we have cap space...then it seems to me that it kinda sucks, unless we make the finals and maybe even win it all. All depends on how things play out from here.
 
This was a pretty good article, definitely shifted me somewhat.

I didn't realize Demar only has two years left on his deal. I suppose you could just assume he'd sign an extension and so he was still a long term asset and not a risk to walk, but worth another huge long term deal? Not with those playoff performances.

Assuming Kawhi actually plays this year and stays, then it's a pretty great deal. If he stays and signals his intent to leave and we deal him to LA for some great return, then it's a pretty great deal. If he walks for nothing and we have cap space...then it seems to me that it kinda sucks, unless we make the finals and maybe even win it all. All depends on how things play out from here.

Bottom line ... this team was 2 years away from a near complete overhaul .

DD and JV were opting out and chances are slim they would be back at bigger money

Kyle , Miles and Ibaka are gone in 2 years .

GM had to make a gut core changing move this summer and he may not be done .

This deal will make us either playoff relevant or starts the inevitable rebuild if Kawai doesnt perform or turns into a bee ach and doesnt show up .

Status quo was unacceptable
 
So Kawhi makes $23m.

If he doesn't pick up his $21m player option for 19-20, then the max the raps can only give him is 4 x $27m.

If he picks up the player option for 19-20, then the raps can offer him 5 x $38m.

Since he was traded, he is no longer eligible for the supermax 5 x $44m.

As a free agent after this year, I believe he can only sign for a max of 5 x ~$30m.

If he leaves as as UFA he can't get the 5th year . The gap between resigning with us and walking away is about 50 million .

It's in his best interest to report and produce if he wants to get paid in the summer . Sitting out the year plus missing almost all of last year would be totally stupid on his part .
 
If he tries to sit out, we are entitled to a 3rd party assessment of his medical condition and if it's determined that he's fit to play, the Raptors get to fine him for every day he misses and retain his rights at the end of the season as that year of his contract will be considered to have not been delivered by Kawhi. He'll be in the exact same situation he's in right now.
 
Zach Lowe
@ZachLowe_NBA
League's trade memo on Kawhi has been sent to teams. Includes one final tidbit: the Spurs are sending Toronto $5M in cash (almost the maximum they can send for the year) as part of the deal. Meant to cover tax hit linked to Kawhi's trade kicker, but still...
 
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