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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

axlsalinger said:
Well, you already compared watching games to living in Guantanamo Bay, so perhaps baseball isn't your thing? They were a .500 team until a couple of days ago.
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What?

I watched close to 162 Jays games a year for many, many years. I think I like the sport.

But I hate this current team.
 
UWHabs said:
Yeah, I find that other games definitely interest me more. Like, I'd totally rather watch Braves-Phillies right now. Although I do want to go to one of the next 2 games to watch Trout+Ohtani play, speaking of generational talents. And the minute that Vlad's called up I'm grabbing a ticket for that game - F whatever else I have on that night.
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Trout is a guy I definitely want to spend more attention on over the next bunch of years because I've kind of sadly not seen enough of his legit legendary shit over the first half of his career with him being out west.
 
MindzEye said:
Trout is a guy I definitely want to spend more attention on over the next bunch of years because I've kind of sadly not seen enough of his legit legendary shit over the first half of his career with him being out west.
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Now, you get Ohtani too.

Angels might have the 2 best players in baseball, and Andrelton Simmonds is a pleasure to watch as well.
 
MindzEye said:
I have a hard time accepting the "revisionist history" tag here when I'm just repeating a lot of the things I said at the time the moves were made.

As for Jose, he saw an across the board drop from ages 35 to 36 in almost every key statistical category. Even some of the leading indicators like IFFB (percentage of fly balls that don't make it out of the infield) dropped, his average fly ball distance dropped from 204 ft to 179 ft (to give that context, he dropped from 18th and tied with Nolan Arenado, to 137th and tied with Dionner Navarro...huge drop in power), his average exit velocity showed a decline.

I said it at the time, Bautista was looking close to done. He ended up being closer than I thought.
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He was coming off an injury-riddled season though, I think we would all agree that a one-year deal was worth a shot. With some extra juice re-signing in Toronto for obvious reasons.

Pearce was a good value add as a lefty masher 1B/DH, but he's always been a terrible outfielder. The Jays played him 637 innings in the OF last season, which is about as much as he had played in the 3 prior seasons combined. Where he has a legitimately good glove though is 1B. Of course, we played him 55 innings at the position he's legitimately good at.
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Yeah, this is pretty much fair. Dude can hit, and can play OF or 2B in a pinch, but due to injuries along with poor outfield planning he was asked to do way too much in the field.

I pretty vividly remember the sabremetric community calling for a power correction and warning of this being a mistake contract.
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There were definitely people who felt that Morales was undervalued. Largely (as you mentioned) from a power perspective playing at Rogers Centre.

Thames was 3 yrs younger, coming off of a god like performance in SK (he was actually nicknamed God in Korea), had shown decent hitting chops in MLB before leaving for SK and was half the cost. If we're making a risky use of money (Morales was 33 and coming off of a .8 WAR season...) then let's swing for the fences, no?
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It's hard to say whether they pursued or even considered him. But he would have definitely been a better allocation of resources, for sure (even though he keeps getting hurt).

Their attempt at it was ridiculously bad. Everything they've done to try to remain competitive has been an incredible failure. They may as well have lit the money they've spent on fire, it actually would have been less damaging to the W/L column.
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Last year was a tire fire for lots of different reasons, but they were competitive (89-73) in 2016, and so far this year. I do subscribe to the general argument many have made that they should have spent more money and went at it a little harder in '16 (this is probably more on Rogers, though).
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
Now, you get Ohtani too.

Angels might have the 2 best players in baseball, and Andrelton Simmonds is a pleasure to watch as well.
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Ohtani is a ****ing treasure, but I don't know if I'd call him the 2nd best player in baseball. The most unique though, absolutely.

Some insane Trout stuff though:

Not even 27 yet and he's already ranked the 16th best CF of all time by WAR which is better than the entire careers of Kirby Puckett & Johnny Damon. His 7 year peak WAR is 5th all time among CF's despite this being his 7th season, so his 7 year peak sample isn't complete. If he finishes this season on his current pace, he'll pass Mickey ****ing Mantle for 3rd in that 7 year peak WAR stat among CF (behind only Willie Mays and Ty Cobb). That means Trout's first 7 seasons are as good as the best 7 seasons of all but 2 CF's all time. Think about that for a second. His first 7 seasons are better than Mickey Mantle's best 7 seasons. Not his best 7 consecutive seasons, his best 7 from any part of his career.

Mike Trout is currently 128th all time in WAR, but if he stays healthy this season he'll likely move up into the high 80's. Another typical Trout season next year and he's into the 40's (basically knocking on Griffey Jr's career WAR only a few months after turning 28). If healthy, he could crack the top 30 before he turns 30.

With any sort of luck healthwise, he's looking at ending up somewhere in the 115 WAR range when all is said and done. Which is Mantle, A-Rod (juuuuuice), Gehrig territory. Top 12-15th of all time.

3rd all time in WAR among position players by their 26 yr old season (Cobb & Mantle) and that's without finishing this season. He's 1st if he finishes the season with 9.3 WAR or better.

Completely crazy.
 
axlsalinger said:
He was coming off an injury-riddled season though, I think we would all agree that a one-year deal was worth a shot. With some extra juice re-signing in Toronto for obvious reasons.
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Nah, we wouldn't agree and I said so at the time. We were budget sensitive and badly needed to get more athletic in the OF, spending 20M on a stationary object in RF who showed across the board decline at the plate the year earlier was a terrible idea. I made these arguments at the time, so no this isn't revisionist. I had been arguing about getting Jose out of RF for a few years previous to extend his MLB lifespan as long as possible because his defence had gotten so bad that it was eating away at the value his stick brought.



Yeah, this is pretty much fair. Dude can hit, and can play OF or 2B in a pinch, but due to injuries along with poor outfield planning he was asked to do way too much in the field.
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There were definitely people who felt that Morales was undervalued. Largely (as you mentioned) from a power perspective playing at Rogers Centre.
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They were wrong for thinking so. Some people think the world is flat. Some people think Trump deserves a ****ing nobel peace prize. Can't fix stupid. So yeah, I'm sure there were people saying this, but I don't think it was trusted sabre guys at all.

A 3 yr deal on a 33 yr old guy who was at best a mediocre DH coming off of his best power season since 2009, but despite the power surge only managed .8 WAR. Better ball players were available weeks later for less money and term. It was a gruesome decision. Embarrassing decision with a predictable outcome.



It's hard to say whether they pursued or even considered him. But he would have definitely been a better allocation of resources, for sure (even though he keeps getting hurt).
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I don't think they pursued him, but they absolutely should have. Again, if you're going to be risky with money (which Morales, Pearce, and Bautista absolutely were) why not be risky with some upside? Why not risk less money while we're at it? A really ugly oversight by Shatkins. A cherry on top of a tire fire of an off season.


Last year was a tire fire for lots of different reasons, but they were competitive (89-73) in 2016, and so far this year. I do subscribe to the general argument many have made that they should have spent more money and went at it a little harder in '16 (this is probably more on Rogers, though).
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Hey, you're not going to get any Rogers defending over here. ****ing useless. Probably the biggest bait and switch job pulled on Toronto fans in my lifetime. But with that said, Shatkins was in an opportunity to remodel the club on the fly with high end talent in house (includind a perennial MVP candidate) and a bucket of budget space to get it done with. They somehow managed to spend every dime they had on things that made the club worse. Think about that for a second. We're not talking about just not getting value for the money spent, but every dollar spent actually hurt the ****ing team. I'm not joking when I say that they could have lit the money on fire, found replacement level AAAA players to fill those spots and we would have been better. It's amazingly inept management. It's exactly the type of shit I was afraid of when Shapiro was given the job. Even with Vladdy, I have no faith that this management group will be able to competently put the pieces around the kids necessary to win. I'm also pretty ****ing concerned that Shatkins will nickle and dime Vladdy every year right up to his free agency and a generational player we developed will end up in stripes for a decade while they continue to shit stomp us.
 
Assuming the Jays aren't making the post season ( they are not) I will absolutely be supporting the Angels as i don't want Mike Trout to be that guy who doesn't do anything in the post season because his team is shit, that and **** the yankees, red sox, and NL in general. No real issues with Houston or Cleveland, but they don't have Mike Trout.

Billy Eppler has done a fine job surrounding Trout and Ohtani ( he gets no credit for Ohtani), with shrewed moves like Simmonds ( what a steal of a deal), Upton, Calhoun, Kinsler and Cozart. He did well to work around his predecessor's glaring **** up of Pujols.

The rotation needs an arm or two ( if anyone should overpay for J.A. Happ at the deadline, it's the Angels) and the pen is a mess ( again, hey, want a Clippard, Axford, Oh, or Loup) but those 2 things can always be fixed at the deadline. The Halos lineup won't get the fanfare of NY, BOS or HOU, but i think they can hang with em, and that defence? Jesus, between Cozart/Simmonds/Kinsler i'm stunned anything gets through the INF, and Calhoun/Trout/Upton is pretty damn good too.

I can even get past the fact they have a manager stuck in 1977 on how to manage a ball club.
 
My big concern re Vlad, is that they lower the team payroll during the years where he, Bo, and whoever are dirt cheap and producing. That's when you take those cheap years and allocate money to a free agent or two so you can maximize talent.

I'm starting to see that Donaldson might not be that guy, as much as i wanted a team with Vlad/Josh on it, you kinda have to keep Vlad at 3B until he shows you can has to be moved off of it. Hell, Miguel Cabrera was at his best a below avg 3B, and he put up 8 WAR seasons, so, uh, whatever. Josh also seems to be hitting a decline, and i don't know if i want to see years 3 and 4 in a 4 year contract, let alone a 5. He also seems to be a guy that will take a stubborn approach if aksed to move off 3B.

The guy i would like to see us pay to replace Josh, is Brian Dozier. 2B appears to be a wasteland spot for us as Travis might not be any good, Bichette should be able to stick at SS, and i think Biggio profiles as more of a Mike Aviles, bench bat.

3B-Vlad
SS-Bichette
2B-Dozier
1B-Smoak
DH-Cheap Vet with declining D and still a stick, plus a spot you put Tulo, or keep open if a guy like Rowdy/Biggio/Davis force your hand.

Not bad for 2019, with a ton of flexibility going forward at 1B/DH.

I'd also put money into SP, as only Stroman/Sanchez are locks for 2019, Estrada/Happ are FA and Biagini/Garcia might be uh, awful.

As much as i think we can get a ton for Happ at the deadline, if you are serious about trying in 2019 ( and really you dont have to be) keeping Happ and putting a QO on him is a viable option and should lead to a fairly easy, team friendly contract extension if you want to do it. I'm not sure how many teams are going to surrender a draft pick to give 34 year old Happ a 3-4 year deal.

After that you see ( hopefully this year) what Bouricki, Reid Foley, Romano, Biagini, McGuire and hell, Gavligio can offer in regards to 19, and if they can take any spots for 2019. Ideally you only want to pay 1 FA SP in their mid 30's.


I should add, assuming Donaldson is for sure moving in July. I don't like to pigeon hole a return for a player like that, but i would be sure trying to get the best MLB ready controlled arm i could for him. If that deal isn't out there, so be it, but that would be my top priority. Early suitors for JD appear to be the Braves, Cardinals and Indians ( assuming none get Machado), and the first 2 for sure have boat loads of young MLB ready ish arms.
 
I could also see the Mets being in on JD if they actually want to make a push to the WC, since their offense and left side of the infield reeks. Philly could also be in on it if they don't trust Franco at 3B. Definitely the fact that ATL and PHI are surprising early opens up a few more suitors, and with the Dodgers falling out of the playoff picture, the NL is looking pretty open - I mean, if the season ended today, NONE of LAD, CHC, WAS, or ARI are a playoff team.

But yeah, I'd definitely be wary about giving 5/150 to JD. I'm assuming he'll bounce back from his little slump, but some numbers are getting concerning. Ks are up a bit, he's hitting more GB and less FB. No idea how stubborn he'd be, but odds are he'll still be better defensively than Vlad at 3B, so as long as JD is here, Vlad really isn't going to be getting much action on the corner there.

In a perfect world, you deal JD, and we sign Harper. We've got a clear need for a left handed middle of the lineup OF bat, but that only happens in video games. As mentioned, they really need to shore up the rotation, so ideally if you're looking to move JD and Travis, yeah, getting rotation arms are the way to go. The bigger problem is that the rotation is always really hard to fill in FA, and we just don't have the MLB-ready arms to step up. Really not sure what can be done there, and the problem is even worse if Stro and Sanchez don't return to form.
 
UWHabs said:
I could also see the Mets being in on JD if they actually want to make a push to the WC, since their offense and left side of the infield reeks. Philly could also be in on it if they don't trust Franco at 3B. Definitely the fact that ATL and PHI are surprising early opens up a few more suitors, and with the Dodgers falling out of the playoff picture, the NL is looking pretty open - I mean, if the season ended today, NONE of LAD, CHC, WAS, or ARI are a playoff team.

But yeah, I'd definitely be wary about giving 5/150 to JD. I'm assuming he'll bounce back from his little slump, but some numbers are getting concerning. Ks are up a bit, he's hitting more GB and less FB. No idea how stubborn he'd be, but odds are he'll still be better defensively than Vlad at 3B, so as long as JD is here, Vlad really isn't going to be getting much action on the corner there.

In a perfect world, you deal JD, and we sign Harper. We've got a clear need for a left handed middle of the lineup OF bat, but that only happens in video games. As mentioned, they really need to shore up the rotation, so ideally if you're looking to move JD and Travis, yeah, getting rotation arms are the way to go. The bigger problem is that the rotation is always really hard to fill in FA, and we just don't have the MLB-ready arms to step up. Really not sure what can be done there, and the problem is even worse if Stro and Sanchez don't return to form.
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Any GM that gives JD 150/5 will be an ex GM . Anyone that gives him term without team options is nuts.
 
If Donaldson can get, and stay healthy, he'll end up returning 150M in value on a 5 year deal. That's about 17-18 WAR. He was worth 34 WAR over the last 5 years. He'll definitely decline over the next 5 but should be able to provide a handful for 5+ WAR seasons before that really sets in, injury permitting.
 
MindzEye said:
If Donaldson can get, and stay healthy, he'll end up returning 150M in value on a 5 year deal. That's about 17-18 WAR. He was worth 34 WAR over the last 5 years. He'll definitely decline over the next 5 but should be able to provide a handful for 5+ WAR seasons before that really sets in, injury permitting.
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Health has been a big issue for him the last couple years, although he's not at Pollock levels of injuries or anything like that. You're just starting to get risky at his age, and with another 3B on the doorstep, I don't think he fits in quite as well.

But he's still a great player, and it does come down to the cost. If I can get JD for, say, 3/100 with a couple vesting options to maybe stretch to 5/150, I'd love that, as that reduces the risk a little. If it were a straight 5/150, that's getting very iffy. He'll clearly be the 2nd best 3B on the market, with Machado having an insane hitting and poor fielding season as a SS, , so it's a question of does that raise JD's offer as someone who wanted Machado but doesn't want to shell out 10/400 for him "settles" for Donaldson. Or is the fact that there's still an insane amount of FA available take enough dollars away and Donaldson, being one of the "older" guys on the market, loses out?
 
MindzEye said:
If Donaldson can get, and stay healthy, he'll end up returning 150M in value on a 5 year deal. That's about 17-18 WAR. He was worth 34 WAR over the last 5 years. He'll definitely decline over the next 5 but should be able to provide a handful for 5+ WAR seasons before that really sets in, injury permitting.
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Health only gets worse with age, and while i wouldn't bet against JD, his primary position is going to be a spot where we have a cheap generational prospect, and i'm not sure how much longer Josh avoids being a part time fielder mostly DH.

I feel like that money can be spent better on Dozier and pitching, or Dozier and a LF/RF
 
UWHabs said:
Health has been a big issue for him the last couple years, although he's not at Pollock levels of injuries or anything like that. You're just starting to get risky at his age, and with another 3B on the doorstep, I don't think he fits in quite as well.

But he's still a great player, and it does come down to the cost. If I can get JD for, say, 3/100 with a couple vesting options to maybe stretch to 5/150, I'd love that, as that reduces the risk a little. If it were a straight 5/150, that's getting very iffy. He'll clearly be the 2nd best 3B on the market, with Machado having an insane hitting and poor fielding season as a SS, , so it's a question of does that raise JD's offer as someone who wanted Machado but doesn't want to shell out 10/400 for him "settles" for Donaldson. Or is the fact that there's still an insane amount of FA available take enough dollars away and Donaldson, being one of the "older" guys on the market, loses out?
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Does last year`s fiscal sanity prevail this off season ? Many players were cut off or got a fraction of what they thought

Red Sox and Dodgers went leaner this year to reset their luxury bill but I think JD may have to settle for an EE contract at best .
 
GEEMAN said:
Does last year`s fiscal sanity prevail this off season ? Many players were cut off or got a fraction of what they thought

Red Sox and Dodgers went leaner this year to reset their luxury bill but I think JD may have to settle for an EE contract at best .
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It's just insane the number of free agents this year: Harper, Machado, Kershaw (maybe), Pollock, JD, Murphy, Miller, Kimbrel, Grandal, etc... The Red Sox are above the tax bill, but the Yankees and Dodgers got under, I think, and you have to assume they're both going to be willing to spend like drunken sailors this year. Combined with Washington having a ton of money off the books and needing to replace Harper/Murphy, teams like Atlanta/Philly improving and potentially having lots of cash to spend, I can't wait to see what happens.
 
ArdenZwelling's avatar
Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
Vlad Jr. exit velocity update: through 40 games, Guerrero's put more than 45 balls in play at 100+ mph. He recently hit one 119.6.

In MLB this season, only three batters have put a ball in play at 118+ mph — Carlos Gonzalez (118.3), Aaron Judge (118.1), and Mike Trout (118).
 
zeke said:
ArdenZwelling's avatar
Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
Vlad Jr. exit velocity update: through 40 games, Guerrero's put more than 45 balls in play at 100+ mph. He recently hit one 119.6.

In MLB this season, only three batters have put a ball in play at 118+ mph — Carlos Gonzalez (118.3), Aaron Judge (118.1), and Mike Trout (118).
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We're at the point now where his 170 wRC+ at the start of the year was a slump and not a streak for him at this level. The more reps he gets against AA pitching, the harder he's hitting the ball.
 
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