BeLeafer
Well-known member
Thanks.
Where do you find these data? It seems it was awful to start the year and has come full circle at the end.
OT: The Toronto Blue Jays
- Thread starter PlayerToBeNamedLater
- Start date
Thanks.
Where do you find these data? It seems it was awful to start the year and has come full circle at the end.
MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
Well-known member
The Jays only scored two runs last night. That is the bigger issue.
worm
Well-known member
for the starters anyway
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
The most concerning stat of all is Osuna's save percentage with a one run lead. I think he's close to 50%.
He's 100% with two runs or more.
I saw it on the American broadcast over the weekend just before he blew the Yankees game we led by one.
He's 100% with two runs or more.
I saw it on the American broadcast over the weekend just before he blew the Yankees game we led by one.
worm
Well-known member
If we want to do something in the playoffs I think both need to turn around.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I love him, but I don't think he's ready to be the closer on a playoff team. It would be really nice if we had an elite veteran reliever in the closer spot (like most of the top teams in the AL) and Osuna was the right handed set up guy.
UWHabs
Well-known member
Fangraphs.
Shutdowns-Meltdowns
13-14 in April
21-12 in May
12-10 in June
30-10 in July
26-9 in August
21-13 in Sept
So yeah, awful in April, then pretty much first in the league in them in July/August, now trouble in September. We're 20th for bullpen WPA in September.
JaysCyYoung
Legend
You're friends with these people why?
JaysCyYoung
Legend
Originally I thought that the Jays poor one-run game performance was entirely based on luck, which is the popularly-accepted belief. But Gibbons clearly has a hugely detrimental impact on the Jays record in close games based on his poor bullpen usage.
Get him out of here and put a real tactical manager in for next season.
This is a team that had an expected win-loss record of 102-60 last year (9 games better than their actual record).
Get him out of here and put a real tactical manager in for next season.
This is a team that had an expected win-loss record of 102-60 last year (9 games better than their actual record).
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Their expected W-L this season has them at 91-66 right now instead of 87-70...so it's a fairly sizable gap for a second year in a row.
JaysCyYoung
Legend
Yeah. If you have that record, you've clinched home-field advantage for the wild card game and are setting up the divisional deciding series against Boston in the final three games.
Big difference just from a few (or four) additional wins spread out over the season.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
It's hard to blame the manager for putting struggling relievers into high leverage situations over and over and over again? Cecil's velocity was down and Storen's control was trash...sometimes you have to think outside of the box and have another strategy that doesn't consist of "muh veterans".
JaysCyYoung
Legend
I don't disagree, but at the same time, he's made a lot of really potato moves in the past month or so with respect to relievers not being used in the correct situations. He's fair game for criticism in this regard, even if he happens to be a "player's manager."
zeke
Well-known member
thinking that a manager should stop relying on relievers every time they have a bad 5ip is silly, imo.
UWHabs
Well-known member
He's not in the Chapman/Miller/Jansen level of closer, no, but I'd put him in the group just outside that. I mean, even Kimbrel last night gave up 4 baserunners without recording an out and ended up with the loss.
Osuna is 10th in the MLB in WPA for relievers, 15th in WAR, and 8th in shutdowns this year (34-6 for shutdown-meltdown, which is top-5 in the league. Even Chapman is only 30-5 this year). So yeah, I'd love to have another arm to support him in the pen, but there aren't very many guys better than him when you look at the stats.
The interesting part is he's done all that while running a FIP over 3, which is actually a lot higher than most of the top closers. Interestingly, he's actually done better on back to back days than games where he's had 1-2 days off, so it's not necessarily fatigue. He's actually been worst this year in low leverage (.345 wOBA against) relative to medium (.158) and high (.251). Probably why he's totally closed the door for those 2-3 run leads (would mostly be medium leverage, I think), while he's had some struggles at the 1 run leads (high leverage).
JaysCyYoung
Legend
Weren't you the guy having a meltdown after the first couple of appearances by Liriano and Feldman?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
If a reliever has a drop in velocity and is getting banged around, why use him in high leverage spots? It's not about an arbitrary measure of how many IP he's allowed to suck for before you make a move, it's about understanding the underlying reasons for the poor performance and determining if they're luck related or not. In Cecil's case, he was throwing 88-89 at the start of the season instead of his customary 92-93. If his performance is being adversely affected by shit outside of his control (like his health), then it doesn't matter how many IP's he sucks for. Pull him out of high leverage and get him more side work, work in blowouts, etc to sort his shit out. Throwing a reliever with diminished velo into high leverage situation after high leverage situation is as bad for the reliever as it is for the team.