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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

MyNameIsJonas said:
Jonas Jays Predictions

1) Either via trade or injury, Anthony Alford steals the CF job from Kevin Pillar by mid June
2) Either via trade or injury, Teoscar Hernandez steals the Granderson platoon partner job from Steve Pearce
3) John Axford and Tyler Clippard claim the 2 pen spots out of camp
4) Axford pitches well, but Clippards reverse splits don't pan out so good and the Jays feel the need for a 2nd lefty which leads to
a) Aaron Loup being overworked
b) Jaime Garcia losing his job in the rotation to someone pitching really well in AAA ( McGuire, Bouricki, Biagini, Pannone, Guerrei) and becoming the 2nd lefty in the pen down the stretch
5) 3/5 Jays SP will have DL stints
6) Kendrys Morales has a better season but is still kinda bad overall, and fans clamour for.....
7) Rowdy Tellez who, due to it being his 2nd season in AAA and potentially seeing a lot more fastballs in a stacked lineup, has a re-surgent year and is back on the map as a prospect
8) Morales loses many DH PA to Solarte, who also fills in at 3B, 2B, SS, LF, RF over the course of the season, and enters a ton of games as a replacement he doesn't start in.
9) Gift Ngeope becomes a favourite of John Gibbons and ends up leading the Jays in SS appearances, because Tulo is broken, and Diaz doesn't hit enough to pass on Gift's glove and speed.
10) Devon Travis is reasonably healthy and has a nice season
11) Randal Grichuk is basically a really good version of Rasmus. More power, better baserunning, and better glove, but K's too much and struggles to get on base.
12) Luke Maile is not as bad as last year and is fine as a backup C, but if he's replaced or if Martin goes on the DL, Reese McGuire passes Danny Jansen as the callup because of his defence.
13) Joe Biagini struggles as a SP in AAA and is converted back as a RP
14) Danny Barnes and Ryan Tepera potentially struggle as they ate alot of IP last season, but Axford and Oh are quite good.
15) Jays win 84 games and are in the second wild card mix with LAA, MIN and OAK, don't sell, but also don't buy.

Non Jays related

1) Surprise teams in each league are Oakland and Cincinatti, both teams can rake, and I think their pitching improves internally. Neither make the playoffs but both finish in and around 500
2) The White Sox and Rays aren't as bad as you think they are
3) The Royals, Tigers, Orioles and Marlins sure are.
4) Philly and Atlanta make strides but prove to be a year away
5) Texas, San Fransisco, Seattle and St Louis all underperform and by seasons end all fire their managers
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Some of this makes sense, but overall if the Jays only win 84 games I will be disappointed.

Leaving out Donaldson -- I expect nice seasons from Martin, Alford, Travis and Grichuk.

I expect Smoak and Morales to be shit.

Tulo is a wildcard.

I have no expectations for Pillar, Granderson, Diaz, Solarte or Pearce. Whatever we get out of this is a bonus.

I expect the pitching to be good.
 
My main worry for the Jays as far as their Wild Card hopes are concerned are the Twins.

They did a nice job adding Morrison, Odorizzi and Lynn, and while i think they overachieved last year and overall might be worse than the Jays, playing in that dogshit AL Central vs the AL East is a pretty big factor.

I think Angels, will be there too, but i struggle with how they are going to use a 6 man rotation, and whilst i dont think much of Seattle and Texas, the AL West is going to be fairly competitive, with no one truly terrible.
 
zeke said:
The projections do. (and yes, they project injuries.)
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I can't say I'm much of a believer, but if you look at the talent out there, we have a chance. It's weird to say, but especially for WC2, the field is wide open and anything could happen.
 
worm said:
curious

how did the projections turn out last year (for the league)
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overall they always do well.

tough to find past projections, but I found a snapshot of fangraphs' expected wins back from the very start of last year's offseason, when it would only have been one projection system (steamer) and an early projection at that, not including any of the offseason moves.

and even then that projection nailed the 6 division winners as the top-6 teams in the league, and predicted things like Minny being a big riser (though not quite as big a riser as they ended up being).
 
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