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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

zeke said:
Diaz also has options.
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I guess it's possible he's sent down, but does that help them with the 40 man? Wouldn't a spot still be needed for Espinoza?

I assume Tulo is going to the 60, and Moll, Dwight Smith are the 2 candidates most likely to be punted.
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
I guess it's possible he's sent down, but does that help them with the 40 man? Wouldn't a spot still be needed for Espinoza?

I assume Tulo is going to the 60, and Moll, Dwight Smith are the 2 candidates most likely to be punted.
Click to expand...

moll gaviglio gone for sure imo. Smith too if needed.
 
Final spring stats for fun:

Guess/Hope at healthy starting lineup:

2B Travis: 45ab, 2bb/7k, .742ops
3B Donaldson: 27ab, 6bb/8k, .451ops
1B Smoak: 43ab, 6bb/11k, .701ops
DH Pearce: 29ab, 4bb/8k, .934ops
LF Granderson: 43ab, 6bb/10k, 1.104ops
RF Grichuk: 33ab, 3bb/10k, .722ops
C Martin: 37ab, 4bb/13k, .748ops
SS Tulowitzki: ---
CF Pillar: 48ab, 2bb/5k, 1.127ops

UT Morales: 58ab, 3bb/14k, .652ops
UT Solarte: 51ab, 3bb/7k, .574ops
UT Diaz: 52ab, 2bb/9k, .510ops
C Maile: 31ab, 5bb/3k, .665ops


Guess at healthy Bisons lineup:


LF Pompey: 18ab, 1bb/4k, .541ops
CF Alford: 31ab, 0bb/8k, .958ops
RF Hernandez: 53ab, 3bb/17k, 1.084ops
DH Smith: 20pa, 2bb/4k, .854ops
3B Leblebijan: 50ab, 8bb/15k, .742ops
1B Tellez: 5ab, 0bb/2k, .400ops
C Jansen: 19ab, 2bb/2k, .340ops
2B Espinosa: 28ab, 1bb/8k, .703ops
SS Ngoepe: 46ab, 9bb/19k, .574ops

UT Davis: 27ab, 1bb/5k, .767ops
OF Fields: 48ab, 4bb/10k, .978ops
IF Lopes: 18ab, 4bb/3k, .780op
C McGuire: 16ab, 1bb/3k, .715ops

Other prospects of interest likely starting in AA:

1B Guerrero: 13ab, 0bb/1k, 1.385ops
3B Bichette: 10ab, 0bb/4k, .900ops
2B Gurriel: 24ab, 0bb/3k, .695ops
SS Urena: 29ab, 1bb/4k, .441ops
C Pentecost: 22ab, 3bb/7k, .336ops


Starting Rotation:

SP Stroman: 7.1ip, 7k/1bb, 3.68era
SP Sanchez: 17.2ip, 16k/2bb, 3.06era
SP Happ: 20.2ip, 16k/5bb, 3.05era
SP Estrada: 15.2ip, 13k/3bb, 4.60era
SP Garcia: 13.2ip, 12k/1bb, 2.63era

Probable Bisons rotation (Note: all these guys are RP depth for the jays, too)

SP Biagini: 23.0ip, 25k/7bb, 5.09era
SP Guerreri: 6.1ip, 4k/1bb, 1.42era
SP McGuire: 10.2ip, 13k/1bb, 0.00era
SP Borucki: 7.2ip, 3k/4bb, 9.39era
SP Rowley: 8.0ip, 10k/3bb, 9.00era

other prospects of interest likely at AA:

SP Pannone: 6.0ip, 4k/0bb, 7.50era
SP R-Foley: 5.0ip, 2k/2bb, 10.80era
SP Harris: 4.0ip, 4k/1bb, 4.50era


Likely opening day bullpen:

RP Osuna: 7.1ip, 8k/0bb, 1.23era
RP Tepera: 8.0ip, 8k/4bb, 7.88era
RP Barnes: 8.1ip, 13k/3bb, 7.56era
RP Loup: 7.2ip, 12k/2bb, 2.35era
RP Oh: 2.0ip, 1k/0bb, 13.50era
RP Clippard: 7.0ip, 9k/2bb, 3.86era
RP Axford: 8.0ip, 11k/2bb, 1.13era

Likely Bisons bullpen:

RP Albuquerque: 8.0ip, 12k/1bb, 3.38era
RP Ramirez: 3.0ip, 1k/0bb, 15.00era
RP Mayza: 10.2ip, 9k/2bb, 1.69era
RP Dermody: 7.0ip, 6k/1bb, 10.29era
RP Santos: 12.0ip, 10k/2bb, 6.75era
RP Girodo: 9.0ip, 7k/3bb, 1.00era
RP Breslow: 7.1ip, 6k/4bb, 6.14era
 
Looking at Baseball Reference's handy "spring training opposition strength" tool:

10 - MLB end of last year
8 - AAA
7 - AA
5 - A+

Travis 7.6
Donaldson 8.2
Smoak 7.7
Pearce 7.8
Granderson 8.1
Grichuk 8.0
Martin 8.0
Tulo ---
Pillar 8.2

Morales 8.1
Solarte 8.1
Diaz 7.0
Maile 6.8

So basically all of the expected roster played against AAA competition on average this spring - except for 2 guys, Diaz and Maile, who faced AA competition on average (and neither did particularly well against that softer competition). Not sure if that tells us anything about how Gibbons was viewing these guys and their spots on the roster.

Pompey 7.8
Alford 6.4
Hernandez 6.7
Smith 7.0
Leblebijan 6.2
Tellez 7.1
Jansen 5.7
Espinosa 8.0
Ngoepe 6.5

Davis 5.9
Fields 6.6
Lopes 6.6
McGuire 6.9

Guerrero 6.4
Bichette 6.6
Gurriel 5.8
Urena 6.8
Pentecost 5.6

So unfortunately some of the standout guys like Teoscar, Alford, and Fields did it against pretty soft competion - not even legit average AA quality on average. It's potentially interesting that Gibbons gave Espinosa the toughest usage of all these guys this spring, and tougher than guys like Diaz and Ngoepe.



Stroman 8.3
Sanchez 8.3
Happ 8.3
Estrada 8.7
Garcia 8.2

Biagini 7.5
Guerreri 7.8
McGuire 7.3
Borucki 7.6
Rowley 7.5

So the regular rotation got as good competition as possible while the Bisons' 5, including Biagini, faced below average AAA quality on average.

Osuna 8.1
Tepera 8.1
Loup 8.1
Barnes 7.5
Oh 8.3
Clippard 8.1
Axford 8.0

All these guys got as good competition as possible too, aside from Barnes.

Alburquerque 8.0
Ramirez 8.2
Breslow 8.3
Mayza 6.5
Dermody 7.0
Santos 6.9
Girodo 7.0

So Gibbons gave Alburquerque, Ramirez, Breslow legit matchups while the other guys he wasn't really using in matchups that makes you think they were ever really in the running for a spot.
 
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-summary/

Fangraphs summary of their positional power rankings.

I was looking at the numbers and noticed that the Cubs are the only team that has a better "worst" rank than we do - Jays' worst rank is 17th, Cubs is 14th. The dodgers also have 17th as their worst rank.

And then from the article: "You might be somewhat interested in balance. I calculated a quick standard deviation of the 11 positional ranks for every team. The Blue Jays come out as the most balanced ball club. They’re first at third base — Josh Donaldson is amazing — but everywhere else, they’re somewhere between ninth and 17th. The Jays are followed by the Cubs and Cardinals. "



Me, I'm not a big fan of a balanced approach, but hey, at least we seem to have done a good job of implementing that kind of approach.
 
We're not so much "stars and scrubs" but "Star and Meh" in building the team. Of course, our DH being 10th is pretty bad, given that it's barely above the Cubs PH, for example. Of course, our bullpen ranks 17th as the worst ranking, but the team's bullpen was quite effective last year, so if we can catch lightning again, even our worst rank might not be that bad.

The question is how long we'll stay competitive for the 2nd wildcard. Are we in the hunt for it the last weekend of the year, or drop out earlier and sell off a little at the deadline?
 
zeke said:
Looking at Baseball Reference's handy "spring training opposition strength" tool:

10 - MLB end of last year
8 - AAA
7 - AA
5 - A+

Travis 7.6
Donaldson 8.2
Smoak 7.7
Pearce 7.8
Granderson 8.1
Grichuk 8.0
Martin 8.0
Tulo ---
Pillar 8.2

Morales 8.1
Solarte 8.1
Diaz 7.0
Maile 6.8

So basically all of the expected roster played against AAA competition on average this spring - except for 2 guys, Diaz and Maile, who faced AA competition on average (and neither did particularly well against that softer competition). Not sure if that tells us anything about how Gibbons was viewing these guys and their spots on the roster.

Pompey 7.8
Alford 6.4
Hernandez 6.7
Smith 7.0
Leblebijan 6.2
Tellez 7.1
Jansen 5.7
Espinosa 8.0
Ngoepe 6.5

Davis 5.9
Fields 6.6
Lopes 6.6
McGuire 6.9

Guerrero 6.4
Bichette 6.6
Gurriel 5.8
Urena 6.8
Pentecost 5.6

So unfortunately some of the standout guys like Teoscar, Alford, and Fields did it against pretty soft competion - not even legit average AA quality on average. It's potentially interesting that Gibbons gave Espinosa the toughest usage of all these guys this spring, and tougher than guys like Diaz and Ngoepe.



Stroman 8.3
Sanchez 8.3
Happ 8.3
Estrada 8.7
Garcia 8.2

Biagini 7.5
Guerreri 7.8
McGuire 7.3
Borucki 7.6
Rowley 7.5

So the regular rotation got as good competition as possible while the Bisons' 5, including Biagini, faced below average AAA quality on average.

Osuna 8.1
Tepera 8.1
Loup 8.1
Barnes 7.5
Oh 8.3
Clippard 8.1
Axford 8.0

All these guys got as good competition as possible too, aside from Barnes.

Alburquerque 8.0
Ramirez 8.2
Breslow 8.3
Mayza 6.5
Dermody 7.0
Santos 6.9
Girodo 7.0

So Gibbons gave Alburquerque, Ramirez, Breslow legit matchups while the other guys he wasn't really using in matchups that makes you think they were ever really in the running for a spot.
Click to expand...

You might be giving Gibby too much credit here.
 
It's tough to picture this team being actually competitive. Unless the pitching is just outstanding, that it allows us to get by with the bats.

I also have no confidence whatsoever that Travis, Tulo, and probably Martin can stay healthy all year.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
It's tough to picture this team being actually competitive. Unless the pitching is just outstanding, that it allows us to get by with the bats.

I also have no confidence whatsoever that Travis, Tulo, and probably Martin can stay healthy all year.
Click to expand...

thankfully i have more confidence in fangraphs confidence than yours.
 
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