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Thread: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

  1. #84801
    Legend MapleLeafBlueJayBoy's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Amazing Teo Hernandez did not make the team.
    #FreeVladdy

  2. #84802
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Quote Originally Posted by MapleLeafBlueJayBoy View Post
    Amazing Teo Hernandez did not make the team.
    Nor should he.

    Needs to cut down the k rate, and play everyday.

    A Steve Pearce injury is also literally right around the corner.

  3. #84803
    1st Liner Matrim's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Vladdy Jr. with the walk off HR!!

  4. #84804
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    I really love Our Thick Son.

  5. #84805
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Kid is such a gem
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  6. #84806
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Video of Vladdy's walk-off:


    https://streamable.com/r173f
    Ill trade five ordinary players for one great player any day. You can always find ordinary players. - Conn Smythe

  7. #84807
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Gibbons says Ngeope makes the team, Axford and Clippard as well, 40 man decisions tomorrow.

    Guessing Espinosa did not.

  8. #84808
    Legend zeke's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Diaz also has options.
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  9. #84809
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Quote Originally Posted by zeke View Post
    Diaz also has options.
    I guess it's possible he's sent down, but does that help them with the 40 man? Wouldn't a spot still be needed for Espinoza?

    I assume Tulo is going to the 60, and Moll, Dwight Smith are the 2 candidates most likely to be punted.

  10. #84810
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    If Diaz can't hit he's by far a worse option than Danny and the Gift, which is sad.

  11. #84811
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Quote Originally Posted by MyNameIsJonas View Post
    I guess it's possible he's sent down, but does that help them with the 40 man? Wouldn't a spot still be needed for Espinoza?

    I assume Tulo is going to the 60, and Moll, Dwight Smith are the 2 candidates most likely to be punted.
    moll gaviglio gone for sure imo. Smith too if needed.
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  12. #84812
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Quote Originally Posted by zeke View Post
    moll gaviglio gone for sure imo. Smith too if needed.
    I forgot Gaviglio was a thing.

  13. #84813
    Legend zeke's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Final spring stats for fun:

    Guess/Hope at healthy starting lineup:

    2B Travis: 45ab, 2bb/7k, .742ops
    3B Donaldson: 27ab, 6bb/8k, .451ops
    1B Smoak: 43ab, 6bb/11k, .701ops
    DH Pearce: 29ab, 4bb/8k, .934ops
    LF Granderson: 43ab, 6bb/10k, 1.104ops
    RF Grichuk: 33ab, 3bb/10k, .722ops
    C Martin: 37ab, 4bb/13k, .748ops
    SS Tulowitzki: ---
    CF Pillar: 48ab, 2bb/5k, 1.127ops

    UT Morales: 58ab, 3bb/14k, .652ops
    UT Solarte: 51ab, 3bb/7k, .574ops
    UT Diaz: 52ab, 2bb/9k, .510ops
    C Maile: 31ab, 5bb/3k, .665ops


    Guess at healthy Bisons lineup:


    LF Pompey: 18ab, 1bb/4k, .541ops
    CF Alford: 31ab, 0bb/8k, .958ops
    RF Hernandez: 53ab, 3bb/17k, 1.084ops
    DH Smith: 20pa, 2bb/4k, .854ops
    3B Leblebijan: 50ab, 8bb/15k, .742ops
    1B Tellez: 5ab, 0bb/2k, .400ops
    C Jansen: 19ab, 2bb/2k, .340ops
    2B Espinosa: 28ab, 1bb/8k, .703ops
    SS Ngoepe: 46ab, 9bb/19k, .574ops

    UT Davis: 27ab, 1bb/5k, .767ops
    OF Fields: 48ab, 4bb/10k, .978ops
    IF Lopes: 18ab, 4bb/3k, .780op
    C McGuire: 16ab, 1bb/3k, .715ops

    Other prospects of interest likely starting in AA:

    1B Guerrero: 13ab, 0bb/1k, 1.385ops
    3B Bichette: 10ab, 0bb/4k, .900ops
    2B Gurriel: 24ab, 0bb/3k, .695ops
    SS Urena: 29ab, 1bb/4k, .441ops
    C Pentecost: 22ab, 3bb/7k, .336ops


    Starting Rotation:

    SP Stroman: 7.1ip, 7k/1bb, 3.68era
    SP Sanchez: 17.2ip, 16k/2bb, 3.06era
    SP Happ: 20.2ip, 16k/5bb, 3.05era
    SP Estrada: 15.2ip, 13k/3bb, 4.60era
    SP Garcia: 13.2ip, 12k/1bb, 2.63era

    Probable Bisons rotation (Note: all these guys are RP depth for the jays, too)

    SP Biagini: 23.0ip, 25k/7bb, 5.09era
    SP Guerreri: 6.1ip, 4k/1bb, 1.42era
    SP McGuire: 10.2ip, 13k/1bb, 0.00era
    SP Borucki: 7.2ip, 3k/4bb, 9.39era
    SP Rowley: 8.0ip, 10k/3bb, 9.00era

    other prospects of interest likely at AA:

    SP Pannone: 6.0ip, 4k/0bb, 7.50era
    SP R-Foley: 5.0ip, 2k/2bb, 10.80era
    SP Harris: 4.0ip, 4k/1bb, 4.50era


    Likely opening day bullpen:

    RP Osuna: 7.1ip, 8k/0bb, 1.23era
    RP Tepera: 8.0ip, 8k/4bb, 7.88era
    RP Barnes: 8.1ip, 13k/3bb, 7.56era
    RP Loup: 7.2ip, 12k/2bb, 2.35era
    RP Oh: 2.0ip, 1k/0bb, 13.50era
    RP Clippard: 7.0ip, 9k/2bb, 3.86era
    RP Axford: 8.0ip, 11k/2bb, 1.13era

    Likely Bisons bullpen:

    RP Albuquerque: 8.0ip, 12k/1bb, 3.38era
    RP Ramirez: 3.0ip, 1k/0bb, 15.00era
    RP Mayza: 10.2ip, 9k/2bb, 1.69era
    RP Dermody: 7.0ip, 6k/1bb, 10.29era
    RP Santos: 12.0ip, 10k/2bb, 6.75era
    RP Girodo: 9.0ip, 7k/3bb, 1.00era
    RP Breslow: 7.1ip, 6k/4bb, 6.14era
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  14. #84814
    Legend zeke's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Looking at Baseball Reference's handy "spring training opposition strength" tool:

    10 - MLB end of last year
    8 - AAA
    7 - AA
    5 - A+

    Travis 7.6
    Donaldson 8.2
    Smoak 7.7
    Pearce 7.8
    Granderson 8.1
    Grichuk 8.0
    Martin 8.0
    Tulo ---
    Pillar 8.2

    Morales 8.1
    Solarte 8.1
    Diaz 7.0
    Maile 6.8

    So basically all of the expected roster played against AAA competition on average this spring - except for 2 guys, Diaz and Maile, who faced AA competition on average (and neither did particularly well against that softer competition). Not sure if that tells us anything about how Gibbons was viewing these guys and their spots on the roster.

    Pompey 7.8
    Alford 6.4
    Hernandez 6.7
    Smith 7.0
    Leblebijan 6.2
    Tellez 7.1
    Jansen 5.7
    Espinosa 8.0
    Ngoepe 6.5

    Davis 5.9
    Fields 6.6
    Lopes 6.6
    McGuire 6.9

    Guerrero 6.4
    Bichette 6.6
    Gurriel 5.8
    Urena 6.8
    Pentecost 5.6

    So unfortunately some of the standout guys like Teoscar, Alford, and Fields did it against pretty soft competion - not even legit average AA quality on average. It's potentially interesting that Gibbons gave Espinosa the toughest usage of all these guys this spring, and tougher than guys like Diaz and Ngoepe.



    Stroman 8.3
    Sanchez 8.3
    Happ 8.3
    Estrada 8.7
    Garcia 8.2

    Biagini 7.5
    Guerreri 7.8
    McGuire 7.3
    Borucki 7.6
    Rowley 7.5

    So the regular rotation got as good competition as possible while the Bisons' 5, including Biagini, faced below average AAA quality on average.

    Osuna 8.1
    Tepera 8.1
    Loup 8.1
    Barnes 7.5
    Oh 8.3
    Clippard 8.1
    Axford 8.0

    All these guys got as good competition as possible too, aside from Barnes.

    Alburquerque 8.0
    Ramirez 8.2
    Breslow 8.3
    Mayza 6.5
    Dermody 7.0
    Santos 6.9
    Girodo 7.0

    So Gibbons gave Alburquerque, Ramirez, Breslow legit matchups while the other guys he wasn't really using in matchups that makes you think they were ever really in the running for a spot.
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  15. #84815
    Legend zeke's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018...kings-summary/

    Fangraphs summary of their positional power rankings.

    I was looking at the numbers and noticed that the Cubs are the only team that has a better "worst" rank than we do - Jays' worst rank is 17th, Cubs is 14th. The dodgers also have 17th as their worst rank.

    And then from the article: "You might be somewhat interested in balance. I calculated a quick standard deviation of the 11 positional ranks for every team. The Blue Jays come out as the most balanced ball club. They’re first at third base — Josh Donaldson is amazing — but everywhere else, they’re somewhere between ninth and 17th. The Jays are followed by the Cubs and Cardinals. "



    Me, I'm not a big fan of a balanced approach, but hey, at least we seem to have done a good job of implementing that kind of approach.
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  16. #84816
    Legend UWHabs's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    We're not so much "stars and scrubs" but "Star and Meh" in building the team. Of course, our DH being 10th is pretty bad, given that it's barely above the Cubs PH, for example. Of course, our bullpen ranks 17th as the worst ranking, but the team's bullpen was quite effective last year, so if we can catch lightning again, even our worst rank might not be that bad.

    The question is how long we'll stay competitive for the 2nd wildcard. Are we in the hunt for it the last weekend of the year, or drop out earlier and sell off a little at the deadline?

  17. #84817
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Quote Originally Posted by zeke View Post
    Looking at Baseball Reference's handy "spring training opposition strength" tool:

    10 - MLB end of last year
    8 - AAA
    7 - AA
    5 - A+

    Travis 7.6
    Donaldson 8.2
    Smoak 7.7
    Pearce 7.8
    Granderson 8.1
    Grichuk 8.0
    Martin 8.0
    Tulo ---
    Pillar 8.2

    Morales 8.1
    Solarte 8.1
    Diaz 7.0
    Maile 6.8

    So basically all of the expected roster played against AAA competition on average this spring - except for 2 guys, Diaz and Maile, who faced AA competition on average (and neither did particularly well against that softer competition). Not sure if that tells us anything about how Gibbons was viewing these guys and their spots on the roster.

    Pompey 7.8
    Alford 6.4
    Hernandez 6.7
    Smith 7.0
    Leblebijan 6.2
    Tellez 7.1
    Jansen 5.7
    Espinosa 8.0
    Ngoepe 6.5

    Davis 5.9
    Fields 6.6
    Lopes 6.6
    McGuire 6.9

    Guerrero 6.4
    Bichette 6.6
    Gurriel 5.8
    Urena 6.8
    Pentecost 5.6

    So unfortunately some of the standout guys like Teoscar, Alford, and Fields did it against pretty soft competion - not even legit average AA quality on average. It's potentially interesting that Gibbons gave Espinosa the toughest usage of all these guys this spring, and tougher than guys like Diaz and Ngoepe.



    Stroman 8.3
    Sanchez 8.3
    Happ 8.3
    Estrada 8.7
    Garcia 8.2

    Biagini 7.5
    Guerreri 7.8
    McGuire 7.3
    Borucki 7.6
    Rowley 7.5

    So the regular rotation got as good competition as possible while the Bisons' 5, including Biagini, faced below average AAA quality on average.

    Osuna 8.1
    Tepera 8.1
    Loup 8.1
    Barnes 7.5
    Oh 8.3
    Clippard 8.1
    Axford 8.0

    All these guys got as good competition as possible too, aside from Barnes.

    Alburquerque 8.0
    Ramirez 8.2
    Breslow 8.3
    Mayza 6.5
    Dermody 7.0
    Santos 6.9
    Girodo 7.0

    So Gibbons gave Alburquerque, Ramirez, Breslow legit matchups while the other guys he wasn't really using in matchups that makes you think they were ever really in the running for a spot.
    You might be giving Gibby too much credit here.

  18. #84818
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Also i imagine it's really hard to get much higher than 8.5 throughout an entire spring.

  19. #84819
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    It's tough to picture this team being actually competitive. Unless the pitching is just outstanding, that it allows us to get by with the bats.

    I also have no confidence whatsoever that Travis, Tulo, and probably Martin can stay healthy all year.

  20. #84820
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    Default Re: OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

    Quote Originally Posted by LeafOfFaith View Post
    It's tough to picture this team being actually competitive. Unless the pitching is just outstanding, that it allows us to get by with the bats.

    I also have no confidence whatsoever that Travis, Tulo, and probably Martin can stay healthy all year.
    thankfully i have more confidence in fangraphs confidence than yours.

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