• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

OT: American Politics

Altair said:
I really don't think Trump holds on in 2020.

Unless something drastically changes all I see is disgruntled Republicans staying home and Democrats desperate for Trump to be gone.

That also depends on who the Democrats run against him, of course.

He can't even use the argument of needing to hold onto the courts, he's stacked the Judicial system with so many young conservative judges that the effect will be felt long after he's dead.
Click to expand...

What has to drastically change? These people don't give a shit about other people. The Wall? Bring it on. Bible thumping? Can I get an AMEN! The environment? You'll be long dead before it effects anything so don't worry about it. Brown people? Interlopers.

I'm jaded as **** right now over what I am seeing first hand.
 
I don’t think it’s possible to talk about 2020 without going through 2018 first.

As far as the “economic card” is concerned, one needs to look at the distribution of growth. Where are the jobs? What industries? What occupations? Which households are benefiting from the run up in equities? Normally, most people would get glass-eyed about these details, but we live in the Age of Picketty. The Balkanization of US political culture and economic prospects is stark.
 
Habsy said:
Your points are fair and granted however I just don't see it happening between the coasts. I really don't. People talk a good game but when they walk up to that voting booth they think about themselves first and foremost. Racist president? You betcha. More money in my pocket? Hmmm. They vote Trump and say they didn't. Just my observation.
Click to expand...

and I don't disagree with that overall sentiment, I just think you're misplacing it here. The people in between the coasts don't have more money in their pocket now than under Obama and won't by late 2018, or 2020. We knew that Trump was selling economic snakeoil when he promised to keep the industrial jobs but enough people in the interior were just happy that someone was speaking directly to them in their language about their concerns and here we are. When nothing has changed between 2016 and 2020, the same schtick won't work again. Do I think that 30-35% base will buy it when he stands up and blames the democrats for him not bringing the jobs back? Sure. But it's not going to be even close to enough for re election.

Anecdotally speaking, I've been finding out quite a few people I never expected to vote Trump actually did vote Trump. One couple in particular kept telling my wife and I they just didn't vote because they disliked both candidates then let it slip recently that they voted Trump. My point to this anecdote is that Trump (as you've mentioned) is not normal. His supporters aren't normal. The polling was off because it wasn't normal. I just really don't see it changing with those that already voted for him. The only way it could is if MORE democrats and independents that didn't vote come out in force. Winning California or NY by an extra 3 million votes won't matter anyway. You have to convince predominantly white rural PA, MI and WI that they're not doing better when the Dems were in the WH, otherwise, they'll overlook this asshats indiscretions.
Click to expand...

Thing is, that's the exact trend we've seen in places that did vote Trump, huge shifts away from Trump. We're barely a year in and the fatigue is already real, even among Trump voters.

Again, this is just my feeling on the matter but I get it from being around these people. It's just what I am seeing. Almost everything the President does is sloughed off as biased media, he's done well in lessening their effect on him.
Click to expand...

I don't think he's done well at all. He's sitting at 35% approval in most polls with about a 55% disapproval. The only thing he's done well is dig whistle his ass off to keep that 35% foaming at the mouth in support. It's not going to be enough. Every bit of dog whistling crystalizes the opposition to his presidency. I don't disagree with the idea that a legit undecided will walk into the voting booth and vote with their wallet, but I don't think the middle class is seeing benefit from the overall economic growth, so he's not going to get a big bump there. American's already seem to be awake to his game of giving gifts to the wealthy in every piece of legislation he pushes. They know who is benefiting from the Trump economy.
 
Habsy said:
What has to drastically change? These people don't give a shit about other people. The Wall? Bring it on. Bible thumping? Can I get an AMEN! The environment? You'll be long dead before it effects anything so don't worry about it. Brown people? Interlopers.

I'm jaded as **** right now over what I am seeing first hand.
Click to expand...

I love that one... government debt?! Why do lefties hate their grandchildren?!
 
lecoqsportif said:
I don’t think it’s possible to talk about 2020 without going through 2018 first.

As far as the “economic card” is concerned, one needs to look at the distribution of growth. Where are the jobs? What industries? What occupations? Which households are benefiting from the run up in equities? Normally, most people would get glass-eyed about these details, but we live in the Age of Picketty. The Balkanization of US political culture and economic prospects is stark.
Click to expand...

Most people don't give a shit, they won't look deeper. Their basic analysis is:

1) Do I have a job that covers my bills
2) Do I feel like I am secure in that job
3) Can I retire eventually
4) Kids College

If Trump and his cronies can prop up jobs in PA, WI and MI long enough to get reelected? He'll have a good shot. Of course I would expect them to dump their employees during his second term if successful.
 
Last edited:
MindzEye said:
and I don't disagree with that overall sentiment, I just think you're misplacing it here. The people in between the coasts don't have more money in their pocket now than under Obama and won't by late 2018, or 2020. We knew that Trump was selling economic snakeoil when he promised to keep the industrial jobs but enough people in the interior were just happy that someone was speaking directly to them in their language about their concerns and here we are. When nothing has changed between 2016 and 2020, the same schtick won't work again. Do I think that 30-35% base will buy it when he stands up and blames the democrats for him not bringing the jobs back? Sure. But it's not going to be even close to enough for re election.
Click to expand...

So the RCP average for his approval rating is 39.4% and unfavorable is 56%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

When he was elected his RCP average for favorable was 37.5% and unfavorable 58.5%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/clintontrumpfavorability.html

He won the election with WORSE numbers. I completely get what you're saying and there is logic behind it but this President, and country for that matter, defies logic.

Thing is, that's the exact trend we've seen in places that did vote Trump, huge shifts away from Trump. We're barely a year in and the fatigue is already real, even among Trump voters.
Click to expand...

Huge shifts? Where exactly? Also, people are still hiding their support for Trump, are you going to trust those polls? I've found that those that won't support him have no issue saying so but those that do have issue admitting that they support him (a large portion anyway).

I don't think he's done well at all. He's sitting at 35% approval in most polls with about a 55% disapproval. The only thing he's done well is dig whistle his ass off to keep that 35% foaming at the mouth in support. It's not going to be enough. Every bit of dog whistling crystalizes the opposition to his presidency. I don't disagree with the idea that a legit undecided will walk into the voting booth and vote with their wallet, but I don't think the middle class is seeing benefit from the overall economic growth, so he's not going to get a big bump there. American's already seem to be awake to his game of giving gifts to the wealthy in every piece of legislation he pushes. They know who is benefiting from the Trump economy.
Click to expand...

Again, he's hovering around where he was when he won ME, the world was surprised when he won. Trump was surprised when he won. I'm not counting him out of anything. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice then shame on me.
 
Last edited:
Habsy said:
Most people don't give a shit, they won't look deeper. Their basic analysis is:

1) Do I have a job that covers my bills
2) Do I feel like I am secure in that job
3) Can I retire eventually
4) Kids College

If Trump and his cronies can prop up jobs in PA, WI and MI long enough to get reelected? He'll have a good shot. Of course I would expect them to dump their employees during his second term if successful.
Click to expand...

That’s not my point. The issue is the who/where with economic prosperity and the extent it’s changed under Trump.

There’s no reason, yet, to assert the patterns of growth in terms of geography, educational attainment, etc have changed. It’s unclear how this would impact voting.

If we have one data point, one I think mentioned by Wayward, is voter enthusiasm with the Ds. Trump brings out the vote.
 
Another possible consideration is that the US economy is already at capacity. The recent tax cuts may well increase spending, but from whom? At capacity, it will be imports - so after all that huffing and puffing, the near term impact could be an increase in the trade deficit.

There will be increased investment to increase domestic productive capacity, but that takes a good two years or so to get off the ground.
 
lecoqsportif said:
Another possible consideration is that the US economy is already at capacity. The recent tax cuts may well increase spending, but from whom? At capacity, it will be imports - so after all that huffing and puffing, the near term impact could be an increase in the trade deficit.

There will be increased investment to increase domestic productive capacity, but that takes a good two years or so to get off the ground.
Click to expand...

China just recently reported their record high trade surplus with the US.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/chinas-trade-surplus-with-the-us-hit-a-record-high-in-2017.html
 
Canada sticking it to the American right it seems

'This man is reprehensible': Justin Trudeau's abortion stance draws anger of U.S. right: http://nationalpost.com/news/politi...trudeaus-abortion-stance-angers-the-u-s-right

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s views on abortion are raising the ire of the U.S. right.

A former Trump White House adviser, several news organizations and the U.S. president’s favourite Fox News morning show have all dumped on Trudeau’s explanation for why pro-life groups should be excluded from $220 million in federal jobs grants.

The prime minister’s suggestion that pro-life groups were out of line with Canadian society triggered criticism in the country next door — where abortion remains a subject of mainstream political debate and is a central issue in the struggle for control of the U.S. Supreme Court.

“This man is reprehensible,” tweeted former White House staffer Sebastian Gorka.
Click to expand...

If Sebastian gorka is mad at you, you're probably doing something right.
 
The DOW just broke 26k. Fastest 1000 point climb in history. Will Trump let that soak in? Doubt it, he'll ruin it by the end of the day.
 
Habsy said:
The DOW just broke 26k. Fastest 1000 point climb in history. Will Trump let that soak in? Doubt it, he'll ruin it by the end of the day.
Click to expand...

One thing he (and the press) fails to mentions is that investors and speculators have been relentlessly pushing prices up everywhere (China, Europe, India, etc) and in almost every asset class (stocks, metals, crypto). Surely, not the work of one nation's tax/deregulatory policy.

Even the Greek stock market is up 20% in 2 months.

also 1000 moves are easier the higher you go. ROI and performance are measured in terms of percentages
 
David Nakamura @DavidNakamura
Sen. Leahy on Trump's immigration preferences: "Norway is a predominantly white country, isn't it?"
DHS Sec. Nielsen: "I actually don't know that, sir."

Daniel Dale @ddale8
To defend the president, the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security just said under oath that she does not know if Norway is predominantly white.
 
CH1 said:
One thing he (and the press) fails to mentions is that investors and speculators have been relentlessly pushing prices up everywhere (China, Europe, India, etc) and in almost every asset class (stocks, metals, crypto). Surely, not the work of one nation's tax/deregulatory policy.

Even the Greek stock market is up 20% in 2 months.

also 1000 moves are easier the higher you go. ROI and performance are measured in terms of percentages
Click to expand...

Just let me know when the bubble is about to burst, OK?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top