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Thread: OT: American Politics

  1. #73021
    Wrong Thinker Extraordinaire Habsy's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by Wayward DP View Post

    But, with respect to your overall point, I agree to an extent. For some people, the economy is enough. But I think you may be underestimating the number of citizens who feel Trump is enough of a personal affront that they will vote Dem. Especially minorities who would not normally vote. Or, in other words, I think 'Trump rage' will lead to people who would not otherwise have voted voting against him.

    Basically, in normal times, economic success would probably be enough to overlook some other warts. But I do not think we are in 'normal times' any longer.
    Stop thinking like a Canadian that realizes there are other countries in the world. I just think Trump has tapped into something deep in the Country and barring glaring evidence of wrong-doing he will remain teflon Don. Am I jaded? Absolutely I am. I just think people will be surprised when it isn't a landslide, history will repeat itself.
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  2. #73022
    Wrong Thinker Extraordinaire Habsy's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by Altair View Post
    I really don't think Trump holds on in 2020.

    Unless something drastically changes all I see is disgruntled Republicans staying home and Democrats desperate for Trump to be gone.

    That also depends on who the Democrats run against him, of course.

    He can't even use the argument of needing to hold onto the courts, he's stacked the Judicial system with so many young conservative judges that the effect will be felt long after he's dead.
    What has to drastically change? These people don't give a shit about other people. The Wall? Bring it on. Bible thumping? Can I get an AMEN! The environment? You'll be long dead before it effects anything so don't worry about it. Brown people? Interlopers.

    I'm jaded as **** right now over what I am seeing first hand.
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  3. #73023
    Legend lecoqsportif's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    I don’t think it’s possible to talk about 2020 without going through 2018 first.

    As far as the “economic card” is concerned, one needs to look at the distribution of growth. Where are the jobs? What industries? What occupations? Which households are benefiting from the run up in equities? Normally, most people would get glass-eyed about these details, but we live in the Age of Picketty. The Balkanization of US political culture and economic prospects is stark.
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  4. #73024
    Wayward Ditch Pig MindzEye's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by Habsy View Post
    Your points are fair and granted however I just don't see it happening between the coasts. I really don't. People talk a good game but when they walk up to that voting booth they think about themselves first and foremost. Racist president? You betcha. More money in my pocket? Hmmm. They vote Trump and say they didn't. Just my observation.
    and I don't disagree with that overall sentiment, I just think you're misplacing it here. The people in between the coasts don't have more money in their pocket now than under Obama and won't by late 2018, or 2020. We knew that Trump was selling economic snakeoil when he promised to keep the industrial jobs but enough people in the interior were just happy that someone was speaking directly to them in their language about their concerns and here we are. When nothing has changed between 2016 and 2020, the same schtick won't work again. Do I think that 30-35% base will buy it when he stands up and blames the democrats for him not bringing the jobs back? Sure. But it's not going to be even close to enough for re election.

    Anecdotally speaking, I've been finding out quite a few people I never expected to vote Trump actually did vote Trump. One couple in particular kept telling my wife and I they just didn't vote because they disliked both candidates then let it slip recently that they voted Trump. My point to this anecdote is that Trump (as you've mentioned) is not normal. His supporters aren't normal. The polling was off because it wasn't normal. I just really don't see it changing with those that already voted for him. The only way it could is if MORE democrats and independents that didn't vote come out in force. Winning California or NY by an extra 3 million votes won't matter anyway. You have to convince predominantly white rural PA, MI and WI that they're not doing better when the Dems were in the WH, otherwise, they'll overlook this asshats indiscretions.
    Thing is, that's the exact trend we've seen in places that did vote Trump, huge shifts away from Trump. We're barely a year in and the fatigue is already real, even among Trump voters.

    Again, this is just my feeling on the matter but I get it from being around these people. It's just what I am seeing. Almost everything the President does is sloughed off as biased media, he's done well in lessening their effect on him.
    I don't think he's done well at all. He's sitting at 35% approval in most polls with about a 55% disapproval. The only thing he's done well is dig whistle his ass off to keep that 35% foaming at the mouth in support. It's not going to be enough. Every bit of dog whistling crystalizes the opposition to his presidency. I don't disagree with the idea that a legit undecided will walk into the voting booth and vote with their wallet, but I don't think the middle class is seeing benefit from the overall economic growth, so he's not going to get a big bump there. American's already seem to be awake to his game of giving gifts to the wealthy in every piece of legislation he pushes. They know who is benefiting from the Trump economy.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

  5. #73025
    Legend lecoqsportif's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by Habsy View Post
    What has to drastically change? These people don't give a shit about other people. The Wall? Bring it on. Bible thumping? Can I get an AMEN! The environment? You'll be long dead before it effects anything so don't worry about it. Brown people? Interlopers.

    I'm jaded as **** right now over what I am seeing first hand.
    I love that one... government debt?! Why do lefties hate their grandchildren?!
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  6. #73026
    Wrong Thinker Extraordinaire Habsy's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by lecoqsportif View Post
    I don’t think it’s possible to talk about 2020 without going through 2018 first.

    As far as the “economic card” is concerned, one needs to look at the distribution of growth. Where are the jobs? What industries? What occupations? Which households are benefiting from the run up in equities? Normally, most people would get glass-eyed about these details, but we live in the Age of Picketty. The Balkanization of US political culture and economic prospects is stark.
    Most people don't give a shit, they won't look deeper. Their basic analysis is:

    1) Do I have a job that covers my bills
    2) Do I feel like I am secure in that job
    3) Can I retire eventually
    4) Kids College

    If Trump and his cronies can prop up jobs in PA, WI and MI long enough to get reelected? He'll have a good shot. Of course I would expect them to dump their employees during his second term if successful.
    Last edited by Habsy; Yesterday at 03:11 PM.
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  7. #73027
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Would help if the other side would field a candidate that wasn't so loathed.

  8. #73028
    Wrong Thinker Extraordinaire Habsy's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post
    and I don't disagree with that overall sentiment, I just think you're misplacing it here. The people in between the coasts don't have more money in their pocket now than under Obama and won't by late 2018, or 2020. We knew that Trump was selling economic snakeoil when he promised to keep the industrial jobs but enough people in the interior were just happy that someone was speaking directly to them in their language about their concerns and here we are. When nothing has changed between 2016 and 2020, the same schtick won't work again. Do I think that 30-35% base will buy it when he stands up and blames the democrats for him not bringing the jobs back? Sure. But it's not going to be even close to enough for re election.
    So the RCP average for his approval rating is 39.4% and unfavorable is 56%

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...able-5493.html

    When he was elected his RCP average for favorable was 37.5% and unfavorable 58.5%.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...orability.html

    He won the election with WORSE numbers. I completely get what you're saying and there is logic behind it but this President, and country for that matter, defies logic.

    Thing is, that's the exact trend we've seen in places that did vote Trump, huge shifts away from Trump. We're barely a year in and the fatigue is already real, even among Trump voters.
    Huge shifts? Where exactly? Also, people are still hiding their support for Trump, are you going to trust those polls? I've found that those that won't support him have no issue saying so but those that do have issue admitting that they support him (a large portion anyway).


    I don't think he's done well at all. He's sitting at 35% approval in most polls with about a 55% disapproval. The only thing he's done well is dig whistle his ass off to keep that 35% foaming at the mouth in support. It's not going to be enough. Every bit of dog whistling crystalizes the opposition to his presidency. I don't disagree with the idea that a legit undecided will walk into the voting booth and vote with their wallet, but I don't think the middle class is seeing benefit from the overall economic growth, so he's not going to get a big bump there. American's already seem to be awake to his game of giving gifts to the wealthy in every piece of legislation he pushes. They know who is benefiting from the Trump economy.
    Again, he's hovering around where he was when he won ME, the world was surprised when he won. Trump was surprised when he won. I'm not counting him out of anything. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice then shame on me.
    Last edited by Habsy; Yesterday at 03:14 PM.
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  9. #73029
    Wrong Thinker Extraordinaire Habsy's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by oscarheyman View Post
    Would help if the other side would field a candidate that wasn't so loathed.
    Yes, a centrist candidate.

    Or Biden, he'd win. Middle class whites like him.
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  10. #73030
    Legend lecoqsportif's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by Habsy View Post
    Most people don't give a shit, they won't look deeper. Their basic analysis is:

    1) Do I have a job that covers my bills
    2) Do I feel like I am secure in that job
    3) Can I retire eventually
    4) Kids College

    If Trump and his cronies can prop up jobs in PA, WI and MI long enough to get reelected? He'll have a good shot. Of course I would expect them to dump their employees during his second term if successful.
    That’s not my point. The issue is the who/where with economic prosperity and the extent it’s changed under Trump.

    There’s no reason, yet, to assert the patterns of growth in terms of geography, educational attainment, etc have changed. It’s unclear how this would impact voting.

    If we have one data point, one I think mentioned by Wayward, is voter enthusiasm with the Ds. Trump brings out the vote.
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  11. #73031
    Legend lecoqsportif's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Another possible consideration is that the US economy is already at capacity. The recent tax cuts may well increase spending, but from whom? At capacity, it will be imports - so after all that huffing and puffing, the near term impact could be an increase in the trade deficit.

    There will be increased investment to increase domestic productive capacity, but that takes a good two years or so to get off the ground.
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  12. #73032
    Wayward Ditch Pig MindzEye's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by lecoqsportif View Post
    Another possible consideration is that the US economy is already at capacity. The recent tax cuts may well increase spending, but from whom? At capacity, it will be imports - so after all that huffing and puffing, the near term impact could be an increase in the trade deficit.

    There will be increased investment to increase domestic productive capacity, but that takes a good two years or so to get off the ground.
    China just recently reported their record high trade surplus with the US.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/chin...h-in-2017.html
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

  13. #73033
    Hall of Famer Hoss's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Biden for P and Oprah for VP........ Landslide.

  14. #73034
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoss View Post
    Biden for P and Oprah for VP........ Landslide.
    Playing catch up but yes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zeke View Post
    An idiot grunt like habitants should be enraged.

  15. #73035
    Legend JackBurton's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Did Trump finish his round yet? He sure enjoyed telling people what they should do on MLK day.

  16. #73036
    Legend Altair's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Canada sticking it to the American right it seems

    'This man is reprehensible': Justin Trudeau's abortion stance draws anger of U.S. right: http://nationalpost.com/news/politic...-the-u-s-right

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s views on abortion are raising the ire of the U.S. right.

    A former Trump White House adviser, several news organizations and the U.S. president’s favourite Fox News morning show have all dumped on Trudeau’s explanation for why pro-life groups should be excluded from $220 million in federal jobs grants.

    The prime minister’s suggestion that pro-life groups were out of line with Canadian society triggered criticism in the country next door — where abortion remains a subject of mainstream political debate and is a central issue in the struggle for control of the U.S. Supreme Court.

    “This man is reprehensible,” tweeted former White House staffer Sebastian Gorka.
    If Sebastian gorka is mad at you, you're probably doing something right.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zeke View Post
    An idiot grunt like habitants should be enraged.

  17. #73037
    Wayward Ditch Pig MindzEye's Avatar
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Yeah, when you're pissing off actual nazis, you're probably on to something.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

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