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Thread: OT: American Politics

  1. #72921
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by Altair View Post
    Hope is a powerful thing.
    Ignorance is far more powerful. Again, there was absolutely nothing redeemable about him as a candidate or even as a human being prior to him getting involved. That people wanted to port their hopes over on to him only shows their extreme level of ignorance regarding how conditions on the ground actually change, and the man himself.

    Thankfully the economy is firing on all cylinders at the moment, hopefully these people can find other employment.
    Job growth has been tepid, and the locations driving what growth there is are not industrial jobs in the American heart land. They're largely tech positions in the liberal wastelands of the coasts.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/thomasfrank...rwy#.el9BwaReb

    More than one-fifth of Donald Trump’s US condominiums have been purchased since the 1980s in secretive, all-cash transactions that enable buyers to avoid legal scrutiny by shielding their finances and identities, a BuzzFeed News investigation has found.

    Records show that more than 1,300 Trump condominiums were bought not by people but by shell companies, and that the purchases were made without a mortgage, avoiding inquiries from lenders.

    Those two characteristics signal that a buyer may be laundering money, the Treasury Department has said in a series of statements since 2016. Treasury’s financial-crimes unit has, in recent years, launched investigations around the country into all-cash shell-company real-estate purchases amid concerns that some such sales may involve money laundering. The agency is considering requiring real-estate professionals to adopt anti-money-laundering programs.

    All-cash purchases by shell companies do not by themselves indicate illegal or improper activity, and they have become more common in recent years in both Trump buildings and other luxury home sales across the United States. Developers such as Trump have no obligation to scrutinize their purchasers or their funding sources.

    But federal investigations “continue to reveal corrupt politicians, drug traffickers and other criminals using shell companies to purchase luxury real estate with cash,” Treasury’s former financial-crimes chief Jennifer Shasky Calvery said at a Capitol Hill hearing in 2016.

    Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) broadcast that concern in an August 2017 advisory to the real-estate industry warning that all-cash real-estate purchases by shell companies are “an attractive avenue for criminals to launder illegal proceeds while masking their identities.”

    Remember when Trump threatened Mueller about looking into his finances? Yeah me too...good times. This is the type of stuff he didn't want Mueller poking around in.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

  3. #72923
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post

    Job growth has been tepid, and the locations driving what growth there is are not industrial jobs in the American heart land. They're largely tech positions in the liberal wastelands of the coasts.
    Yeah, this is not cyclical, itís structural.

    Just wait for the impact of driverless trucks...

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post
    Remember when Trump threatened Mueller about looking into his finances? Yeah me too...good times. This is the type of stuff he didn't want Mueller poking around in.
    Kushner and his dad too.

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    I wonder if the GOP grandees and donors will pay for Hope Hick’s legal bills. Coz it’s gonna be a doozy.

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by lecoqsportif View Post
    Yeah, this is not cyclical, it’s structural.

    Just wait for the impact of driverless trucks...
    and taxis, ubers, deliveries, etc.

    I don't think people fully appreciate how disruptive a combination of technologies autonomous driving software and electric vehicles are going to be. Gas stations, auto insurance, driving jobs, policing, parking garages/meter maids (why pay to park when you can set your autonomous vehicle to drive around without you until you call it?), auto mechanics (on balance, there is way, way less maintenance for electric engines and driver error is no longer going to be a source of income), personal vehicle ownership (why even buy one if there are a fleet of autonomous Ubers available within a few minutes, ready to take you anywhere for a cheap?).

    Nose to tail, the way we've become accustomed to dealing with vehicles is going to change.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    i'm a little unimpressed with the current lack of vision as to what a driverless society will look like.

    people are still viewing them as "cars" when they'll just be mobile rooms. offices. kitchens. tv rooms. bars. bathrooms. bedrooms. whatever you want. and they'll all log in to the city traffic software, and that will make sure everyone gets where they want to go with no traffic, no streetlights, no accident, no cops, no parking, no drunk driving (cities will save so much money it'll be well worth it to give everyone free ones). they'll get the kids to school without needing you, they'll pick up groceries and drop off dry cleaning.

    and if they ever figure out the power issue (maybe better batteries, maybe constant charging from power lines or tracks built into all routes) then they'll all be drones and suddenly you don't need constant road repairs (or even roads at all) and wear and tear on the drones will be minimal.
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by zeke View Post
    i'm a little unimpressed with the current lack of vision as to what a driverless society will look like.

    people are still viewing them as "cars" when they'll just be mobile rooms. offices. kitchens. tv rooms. bars. bathrooms. bedrooms. whatever you want. and they'll all log in to the city traffic software, and that will make sure everyone gets where they want to go with no traffic, no streetlights, no accident, no cops, no parking, no drunk driving (cities will save so much money it'll be well worth it to give everyone free ones). they'll get the kids to school without needing you, they'll pick up groceries and drop off dry cleaning.

    and if they ever figure out the power issue (maybe better batteries, maybe constant charging from power lines or tracks built into all routes) then they'll all be drones and suddenly you don't need constant road repairs (or even roads at all) and wear and tear on the drones will be minimal.
    Well, there's still the big question of what it costs to produce them. So while having a mobile kitchen or bathroom would be innovative, at that point you basically need something bus-sized to operate, and the costs of that become crazy higher. More likely is that your new form of transit simply become just like a personal mass transit vehicle. Especially if you get all cars converted, then they can potentially navigate city streets at highway speeds, at which point I won't really care if it's a little cramped if it means I can get halfway across the city in 10 minutes.

    But the biggest one will be costs. I mean, Uber pays something like 75% of their revenues to drivers now. Just wait until an Uber fare across town, door to door, is now basically the same price as a subway token. And if you can do that at highway speeds, suddenly that opens up a ton of new development land too, as maybe you don't need to live right downtown if I know I can always make it there in less than 15 minutes for only 4 bucks each way, and will never have to worry about finding parking, etc...

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Or course there's growth. The Mega-Rich have just been handed an all-access pass from the man who said he was going to drain the swamp.

    Anybody who thinks this is going to help the people that actually need help is incredibly naive, if I'm being nice.


    ....let's not even discuss the environmental protection checks that were in place, and now are not.

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Something not mentioned that will further impact society and economics is increased digital education and working remotely from pretty much anywhere.

    People really need to stop thinking of a school or work setting the way it has been. In the next 25-50 years many schools and offices will go by the wayside effecting everything from jobs to the real estate sector trickling down through companies like cleaners, security, delivery, energy, repair etc. The list actually goes on.

    I was intrigued by the idea of a base salary for all citizens when that occurs because there is absolutely no way there will be enough jobs available for the uneducated. Parents need to get their shit together and ensure their kids are prepared for the future.
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by Habsy View Post
    Something not mentioned that will further impact society and economics is increased digital education and working remotely from pretty much anywhere.

    People really need to stop thinking of a school or work setting the way it has been. In the next 25-50 years many schools and offices will go by the wayside effecting everything from jobs to the real estate sector trickling down through companies like cleaners, security, delivery, energy, repair etc. The list actually goes on.

    I was intrigued by the idea of a base salary for all citizens when that occurs because there is absolutely no way there will be enough jobs available for the uneducated. Parents need to get their shit together and ensure their kids are prepared for the future.
    A few places have started piloting universal basic incomes - something like that almost certainly has to be the future. I don't think anyone has settled on a model that works, yet, though, because we still don't know what's enough to pay to people, and whether you claw it back with any other income they receive.

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    a lot of shit (good and bad) will happen that we can't predict right now. obviously, many jobs will continued to be lost to automation and AI but many jobs will be created in areas we can't anticipate at the moment.
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by UWHabs View Post
    A few places have started piloting universal basic incomes - something like that almost certainly has to be the future. I don't think anyone has settled on a model that works, yet, though, because we still don't know what's enough to pay to people, and whether you claw it back with any other income they receive.
    I'm not sure universal basic income is the way to go....

    what is universal? how does immigration work when countries have different ideas about basic income?
    and what constitutes basic? who decides?
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by CH1 View Post
    a lot of shit (good and bad) will happen that we can't predict right now. obviously, many jobs will continued to be lost to automation and AI but many jobs will be created in areas we can't anticipate at the moment.
    the numbers really don't add up. there's just no way new jobs can be created to offset the losses.

    the scariest part is that nobody is really talking about it.
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by zeke View Post
    the numbers really don't add up. there's just no way new jobs can be created to offset the losses.

    the scariest part is that nobody is really talking about it.
    I'd like to think that the cost of living should drop dramatically if corporations are saving so much money.

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by zeke View Post
    i'm a little unimpressed with the current lack of vision as to what a driverless society will look like.
    Until "we" (governments, urban planners, engineers, etc) see how this really changes the way humans operate within cities, it's difficult to make a grand vision that will have more lasting power than any of those deep dives into the future we laugh about now when we look at them (flying cars by the year 2000 eh?).

    people are still viewing them as "cars" when they'll just be mobile rooms. offices. kitchens. tv rooms. bars. bathrooms. bedrooms. whatever you want. and they'll all log in to the city traffic software, and that will make sure everyone gets where they want to go with no traffic, no streetlights, no accident, no cops, no parking, no drunk driving (cities will save so much money it'll be well worth it to give everyone free ones). they'll get the kids to school without needing you, they'll pick up groceries and drop off dry cleaning.
    Oh, I agree that they'll become more than "cars" pretty shortly after mass adoption, but I think we'll be looking more at the creative use of existing space restrictions. So a mobile office? A mobile office that you can catch a somewhat cramped nap in? Sure why not. But a kitchen, or anything with plumbing? Well maybe for well off retirees (basically RV's) but for daily transportation? Nah. Wifi and some basic amenities (kuerig style coffee makers, small microwaves, larger screens, etc) is already all sorts of game changing.

    and if they ever figure out the power issue (maybe better batteries, maybe constant charging from power lines or tracks built into all routes) then they'll all be drones and suddenly you don't need constant road repairs (or even roads at all) and wear and tear on the drones will be minimal.
    Charging will be wireless at some point in the not so ridiculously distant future. You can already do it with cell phones, so I don't see any charging hardware built into road networks being a legit fixture but I don't see road repairs changing much until there is a significant change in the 100 yr old technology of taking old oil and mixing it with crushed rock to pave a road. Wear and tear on the "vehicles" themselves though, absolutely. So much damage is done to cars through poor driving habits and accidents. Slower acceleration, braking further in advance and a massive, massive decline in operator error will seriously limit repair work necessary to keep these things on the road.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by UWHabs View Post
    A few places have started piloting universal basic incomes - something like that almost certainly has to be the future. I don't think anyone has settled on a model that works, yet, though, because we still don't know what's enough to pay to people, and whether you claw it back with any other income they receive.
    Yeah, UBI is a great concept but there's going to be a lot of bumps along the road necessary to answer those questions. It is absolutely the best answer I've seen discussed concerning the problem of permanent job loss to automation. Free specialized educations should come as part of the package imo. There will still be the need for employees, but the skills will become more and more specialized the further down the rabbit hole we go. Just eat the cost on all post secondary education in those programs so we can train and retrain those who want to stay engaged in the labour markets.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by CH1 View Post
    I'm not sure universal basic income is the way to go....
    I don't know if there's a better way to shift enough money from the producers to everyone else. It will get to the point that the people who own the robots/patent the algorithms, etc, own society. If there isn't a mechanism to tax the means of production and redistribute it to the masses, shit could get ugly in a hurry. As stable as the modern world is (in comparison to the rest of human history), natural disasters tend to remind us how close we are to anarchy. Skip a couple of meals and people get willing to do some gruesome shit in a hurry.

    what is universal?
    Everyone legally in your country.

    how does immigration work when countries have different ideas about basic income?
    A lot of the arguments for needing to continuously inflate population levels starts to fall apart when the jobs those immigrants would have filled have been automated out. If you're taxing production instead of labour, and that's paying for health care, UBI/Pensions, etc...then you don't need to bring in 250K worth of immigration every year. It will end up requiring advanced nations to tighten up significantly on immigration and focus on value add. Doctors, engineers, professionals in fields where humans still contribute, people with significant financial assets to support themselves etc, etc are welcome. Dirt farmer from the Sudan? Sorry bro, you're going to have to get in line for the 10,000 lottery/refugee spots we take in annually.


    and what constitutes basic? who decides?
    In theory...a mixture of economic experts and elected officials.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by zeke View Post
    the numbers really don't add up. there's just no way new jobs can be created to offset the losses.

    the scariest part is that nobody is really talking about it.
    people are talking about it, including my favourite economist Tyler Cowen

    He wrote this over 4 years ago: https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...re-here-098995

    >>excerpt

    The rise of intelligent machines will spawn new ideologies along with the new economy it is creating. Think of it as a kind of digital social Darwinism, with clear winners and losers: Those with the talent and skills to work seamlessly with technology and compete in the global marketplace are increasingly rewarded, while those whose jobs can just as easily be done by foreigners, robots or a few thousand lines of code suffer accordingly. This split is already evident in the data: The median male salary in the United States was higher in 1969 than it is today. Middle-class manufacturing jobs have been going away due to a mix of automation and trade, and they are not being replaced. The most lucrative college majors are in the technical fields, such as engineering. The winners are doing much better than ever before, but many others are standing still or even seeing wage declines.

    These trends will only accelerate in the years to come, rewriting America¬’s social contract in the process. We will move from a society based on the pretense that everyone is given a decent standard of living to one in which people are expected to fend for themselves. I imagine a world in which, say, 10 to 15 percent of the citizenry (or more, in due time) is extremely wealthy and has fantastically comfortable and stimulating lives, equivalent to those of current-day millionaires, albeit with better health care.

    Much of the rest of the country will have stagnant or maybe even falling wages in dollar terms, but they will also have a lot more opportunities for cheap fun and cheap education. Many of these people will live quite well¬—especially those who have the discipline to benefit from all the free or nearly free services that modern technology makes available. Others will fall by the wayside
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    Default Re: OT: American Politics

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post

    A lot of the arguments for needing to continuously inflate population levels starts to fall apart when the jobs those immigrants would have filled have been automated out. If you're taxing production instead of labour, and that's paying for health care, UBI/Pensions, etc...then you don't need to bring in 250K worth of immigration every year. It will end up requiring advanced nations to tighten up significantly on immigration and focus on value add. Doctors, engineers, professionals in fields where humans still contribute, people with significant financial assets to support themselves etc, etc are welcome. Dirt farmer from the Sudan? Sorry bro, you're going to have to get in line for the 10,000 lottery/refugee spots we take in annually.
    That's what I was getting at. The immigrant dream will die. On the other hand, it's not all bad:

    Every day, the number of people around the world living in extreme poverty (less than about $2 a day) goes down by 217,000, according to calculations by Max Roser, an Oxford University economist who runs a website called Our World in Data. Every day, 325,000 more people gain access to electricity. And 300,000 more gain access to clean drinking water.
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