• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

OT: American Politics

Re: OT: Canadian Politics

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2847/ontario-mid-campaign/

Toronto, May 24th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 906 Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning almost half of Ontarians (47%) say that they would support the NDP. A third (33%) say they would support the PCs, and one-sixth (14%) say they would support the Liberals. Few (4%) say they would support either the Green Party, or another party (2%).

There is no way this can be true...right?
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

If the PC's lose in Ontario it should be considered one of the biggest collapses in Canadian politics. Up until this week, the PC's has been the clear front runners for nearly 3 years.

This potential collapse is squarely on the shoulders of Doug Ford.
 
Last edited:
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

Yep. I remember seeing similarish numbers among OPC supporters as well, just with Wynne slotted in for Ford. Wynne has ruined the Liberal brand to the point where even conservative Ontarians would rather vote NDP than Liberal. It's amazing.

The Liberals are currently tracking to end up with 3-4 seats. One of the bigger shit kickings in modern Canadian political history.

This is not amazing. In fact, it's predictable in rural Ontario.

In many cases Conservative voters have more in common with the "working class, union, truck driving ball cap wearing" side of the NDP than they do for socially responsible and inclusive Liberals. It's a natural migration in many ways. When you remove the union aspect to many Dippers those folks are actually quite conservative (re taxes and minorities).

I'm from Northern Ontario and it is very common to hear "Protect my union, but get those gays and immigrants away from me."
 
Last edited:
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

If the PC's lose in Ontario it should be considered one of the biggest collapses in Canadian politics. Up until this week, the PC's has been the clear front runners for nearly 3 years.

This potential collapse is squarely on the shoulders of Doug Ford.
It'd be a pretty big collapse, but this isn't a new thing for the PC's.

John Tory & Tim Hudak both went into elections as the clear front runners, and managed to **** it up.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

It'd be a pretty big collapse, but this isn't a new thing for the PC's.

John Tory & Tim Hudak both went into elections as the clear front runners, and managed to **** it up.

I was a political staffer for the Liberals going up against both Tory and Hudak. We were never that far behind in the polls during those elections. Tory had a nice lead on us and we were mainly tied with Hudak, but this has the making of an epic collapse.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

I was a political staffer for the Liberals going up against both Tory and Hudak. We were never that far behind in the polls during those elections. Tory had a nice lead on us and we were mainly tied with Hudak, but this has the making of an epic collapse.

Still 2 weeks to go, and I never trust Forum poll numbers, but I think someone else had similar numbers this week as well with the NDP at 40+. But yeah, the fact that the Liberals aren't even projected for any seats in Toronto, is still kind of stunning. Debate coming up this weekend - how each party attacks it will certainly be interesting. Right now, the Liberals really need to shift hard away from the Anti-Ford talk to hammer hard on the NDP.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

Still 2 weeks to go, and I never trust Forum poll numbers, but I think someone else had similar numbers this week as well with the NDP at 40+. But yeah, the fact that the Liberals aren't even projected for any seats in Toronto, is still kind of stunning. Debate coming up this weekend - how each party attacks it will certainly be interesting. Right now, the Liberals really need to shift hard away from the Anti-Ford talk to hammer hard on the NDP.

No no no no no

They need to continue to hammer ford, and hard. They need to wound the PCs enough that the NDP win, likely a minority.

They need to wound the PCs enough that if they do win, it's a minority.

That way they hold the balance of power. Granted, they need around 5 seats, but I have to believe that they can muster up at least that.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

so, I'm curious.

why does everyone dislike Kathleen Wynne so much?

I mean she's certainly bungled some files pretty badly (i.e. hydro). And she carries with her the weight of 15 years of Liberal baggage.

But in terms of her policies, and how her government has run the province, why are people so vehemently opposed to her? The economy is doing very well, unemployment is quite low. She definitely fudged the numbers to make the deficit look more palatable which is pretty frustrating. And the debt is an issue. But why the vitriol?
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

No no no no no

They need to continue to hammer ford, and hard. They need to wound the PCs enough that the NDP win, likely a minority.

They need to wound the PCs enough that if they do win, it's a minority.

That way they hold the balance of power. Granted, they need around 5 seats, but I have to believe that they can muster up at least that.

Okay, they need to wait to make sure Ford is really down before backing off, but the way things are going now, they're in serious danger of getting shut out. The fact is that right now, the Libs have given no reason for people to not vote NDP, and they need to starting giving people that reason. You can't just ignore them any longer.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

Still 2 weeks to go, and I never trust Forum poll numbers, but I think someone else had similar numbers this week as well with the NDP at 40+. But yeah, the fact that the Liberals aren't even projected for any seats in Toronto, is still kind of stunning. Debate coming up this weekend - how each party attacks it will certainly be interesting. Right now, the Liberals really need to shift hard away from the Anti-Ford talk to hammer hard on the NDP.

Forum is pretty bad source, but there is def a shift happening on the ground.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

so, I'm curious.

why does everyone dislike Kathleen Wynne so much?

I mean she's certainly bungled some files pretty badly (i.e. hydro). And she carries with her the weight of 15 years of Liberal baggage.

But in terms of her policies, and how her government has run the province, why are people so vehemently opposed to her? The economy is doing very well, unemployment is quite low. She definitely fudged the numbers to make the deficit look more palatable which is pretty frustrating. And the debt is an issue. But why the vitriol?

I'm orginally from a rural county along lake erie, so I can speak to the thought process in that area a little bit. She and the liberals are absolutely despised, though the county had a long history of voting liberal both federally and provincially before around 10 years ago. Despite what Bolduke would have you believe, it's not because everyone there are a bunch of racist, misogynistic rednecks.

Our local economy was based on manufacturing and cash crops - mainly tobacco. We were one of the highest earning, richest counties in the province. People could make amazing livings on small 50 acre farms and that in turn drove the rest of the economy. The small town I went to elementary school in didn't have a stop light, but it had two good elementary schools, a high school, an arena, a community centre. The liberals put in new regulations that forced tobacco farmers to upgrade their equipment so that we were producing the highest quality, cleanest tobacco in the world. Many invested hundreds of thousands of dollars. Then Ottawa decided to turf the tobacco quota system just a few years later, but the province under McGuinty refused to put in their share to buy farmers out of their quota. It decimated our local economy.

Manufacturers have been closing up shop as well. When they leave, they almost always cite increasing hydro costs.

The liberals have been forcing wind turbines in these rural counties that people don't want. They're noisy, they're an eye sore, people who live near them report health problems, they produce power we don't need during hours we don't need it, and the contracts drove the price of electricity through the roof. No matter how hard the municipalities and the people fight we can't stop them.

They get screwed even more on hydro bills because of these "delivery charges" for having the gall to settle down outside the GTA.

The people also view Wynne and the liberals as fiscally irresponsible. A few billion dollars on cancelled gas plants to save a few seats in the GTA. Billions in interest and debt down the road so they can roll back our hydro bills in the short term, a problem they created, to save their election hopes. 4 billion in increase borrowing costs for an accounting scheme that allowed them to hide the borrowing and cling to their balanced budget promise, only to abandon a balanced budget and try to buy the election.

Then there's the minimum wage. Our small-town economy is dependent on small business. Most small businesses you speak with are completely fine with the minimum wage going up, but gradually. The need cost certainty. A 20% overnight increase followed by another $1 an hour one year later is seen as vote buying on the backs of small business, plain and simple.

In general there's the feeling, with good reason, that Wynne doesn't care about anything other than the GTA. It looks like the GTA has had enough now as well.
 
Last edited:
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

I'm orginally from a rural county along lake erie, so I can speak to the thought process in that area a little bit. She and the liberals are absolutely despised, though the county had a long history of voting liberal both federally and provincially before around 10 years ago. Despite what Bolduke would have you believe, it's not because everyone there are a bunch of racist, misogynistic rednecks.

Our local economy was based on manufacturing and cash crops - mainly tobacco. We were one of the highest earning, richest counties in the province. People could make amazing livings on small 50 acre farms and that in turn drove the rest of the economy. The small town I went to elementary school in didn't have a stop light, but it had two good elementary schools, a high school, an arena, a community centre. The liberals put in new regulations that forced tobacco farmers to upgrade their equipment so that we were producing the highest quality, cleanest tobacco in the world. Many invested hundreds of thousands of dollars. Then Ottawa decided to turf the tobacco quota system just a few years later, but the province under McGuinty refused to put in their share to buy farmers out of their quota. It decimated our local economy.

Manufacturers have been closing up shop as well. When they leave, they almost always cite increasing hydro costs.

The liberals have been forcing wind turbines in these rural counties that people don't want. They're noisy, they're an eye sore, people who live near them report health problems, they produce power we don't need during hours we don't need it, and the contracts drove the price of electricity through the roof. No matter how hard the municipalities and the people fight we can't stop them.

They get screwed even more on hydro bills because of these "delivery charges" for having the gall to settle down outside the GTA.

The people also view Wynne and the liberals as fiscally irresponsible. A few billion dollars on cancelled gas plants to save a few seats in the GTA. Billions in interest and debt down the road so they can roll back our hydro bills in the short term, a problem they created, to save their election hopes. 4 billion in increase borrowing costs for an accounting scheme that allowed them to hide the borrowing and cling to their balanced budget promise, only to abandon a balanced budget and try to buy the election.

Then there's the minimum wage. Our small-town economy is dependent on small business. Most small businesses you speak with are completely fine with the minimum wage going up, but gradually. The need cost certainty. A 20% overnight increase followed by another $1 an hour one year later is seen as vote buying on the backs of small business, plain and simple.

In general there's the feeling, with good reason, that Wynne doesn't care about anything other than the GTA. It looks like the GTA has had enough now as well.

thanks for this. this makes a lot of sense.

hydro is a huge bungle for sure. that's part McGuinty, part Wynne, but voters won't be so discerning. gas plants are also McGuinty, but same thing. rightly or wrongly Kathleen carries Dalton's baggage.

and the minimum wage thing is also a legitimate gripe. I'll admit I totally lack the rural perspective as I live in Toronto.

I guess the question then becomes is there anything in the PCs or NDPs platforms that ought to convince voters they'll do a better job.

and with respect to the PCs, I don't think you can honestly reach that conclusion, but that may be my personal biases.

but it sounds like people are just so fed up with the Liberals that they may cut off their nose to spite their face kinda thing.

don't get me wrong, I understand the Liberal fatigue. I'm just not really enthralled with the alternatives (and for the record, I have not determined how I will vote this election, I'm still between NDP/Libs/Green).
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

thanks for this. this makes a lot of sense.

hydro is a huge bungle for sure. that's part McGuinty, part Wynne, but voters won't be so discerning. gas plants are also McGuinty, but same thing. rightly or wrongly Kathleen carries Dalton's baggage.

and the minimum wage thing is also a legitimate gripe. I'll admit I totally lack the rural perspective as I live in Toronto.

I guess the question then becomes is there anything in the PCs or NDPs platforms that ought to convince voters they'll do a better job.

and with respect to the PCs, I don't think you can honestly reach that conclusion, but that may be my personal biases.

but it sounds like people are just so fed up with the Liberals that they may cut off their nose to spite their face kinda thing.

don't get me wrong, I understand the Liberal fatigue. I'm just not really enthralled with the alternatives (and for the record, I have not determined how I will vote this election, I'm still between NDP/Libs/Green).

Yep, definitely a POV you don't get living in the downtown bubble. Obviously a lot of things there are very specific to the area, but the general sentiment is there.

The Liberals deserve their fair share of blame, for sure. They've deserved to lose the last few elections, and seems like this time that will actually come true. But they definitely don't deserve to get knocked down to rubble.

This is where part of me would love a party leader to speak out frankly. Like, just go and say, "well, we're not winning this election, and I'm not going to stick around as leader. Vote for as many Libs as we can so neither of the other 2 parties can screw things up too much." Barring a massive number of PC candidates getting kicked out for using the 407 list and a ton of NDP candidates getting kicked out due to more Hitler memes, definitely not looking like the Libs will be pulling it out this time around.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

thanks for this. this makes a lot of sense.

hydro is a huge bungle for sure. that's part McGuinty, part Wynne, but voters won't be so discerning. gas plants are also McGuinty, but same thing. rightly or wrongly Kathleen carries Dalton's baggage.

and the minimum wage thing is also a legitimate gripe. I'll admit I totally lack the rural perspective as I live in Toronto.

I guess the question then becomes is there anything in the PCs or NDPs platforms that ought to convince voters they'll do a better job.

and with respect to the PCs, I don't think you can honestly reach that conclusion, but that may be my personal biases.

but it sounds like people are just so fed up with the Liberals that they may cut off their nose to spite their face kinda thing.

don't get me wrong, I understand the Liberal fatigue. I'm just not really enthralled with the alternatives (and for the record, I have not determined how I will vote this election, I'm still between NDP/Libs/Green).

As someone that grew up around a lot of poverty I have no sympathy for people that don't want people to make at least 15 dollars when working.

Corporations and millionaires have done a hell of a job convincing people making 25-30 dollars an hour that the people under them shouldn't be making at least 15 an hour.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

In terms of day-to-day living, Ontario is doing great. As you mentioned --- provincial unemployment is at a 25 year low and there hasn't been a smog day in Toronto in something like 7 years. Manufacturing jobs have re-stabilized throughout the province. It's not like it was in the 70/80/90's, and will never be again - but the economy has shifted nicely. I believe Ontario is one of the current leaders in G8 growth.

There is a misconception that the Liberals don't give rural and northern Ontario equal access to program funding, but I can tell you with direct experience that is a complete fallacy. The population to funding money ratio heavily favors lower populated areas (I'm from Thunder Bay).

However, Wynne has ran into few things:

1) There are reasons beyond her control that people don't like her.
2) The Libs have been in power for 15 years, and old political saying of "times to kick the bums out" is alive an well in Ontario.
3) The Hydro file was bungled and the messaging caught on with the electorate.

For me, I want to vote Liberal --- but I might need to vote strategically. By the sounds of it, that means NDP.
 
Re: OT: Canadian Politics

"The hydro messaging caught on with the electorate"

As opposed to

"Completely ****ed the hydro file"

Spoken like a true staffer lap-dog.
 
Back
Top