Goalies and the age they become NHL regulars

Based on the discussion we had about Jacob Markstrom being traded to Vancouver, some of us think that age 24 he's bordering on bust category while some think he's still a prospect.

Cue the "you cant just go by stats bro. C'mon, do you even lift"-esque comments.

I broke down the age where the goalies in the league became established NHLers. I then broke down the starters into three groups to see the draft rank and when they started being starters. I wanted to break down the prospect hype some of the goalies received (For example, Price & Markstrom were both seen as the best prospects outside of the NHL at one point in both of their careers) as they got into the league, but I couldn't find sites with enough information.

This will just apply to the goalies in the NHL this year.

I define "full time NHLer" as the first year they became established NHLers either as starters or backups, ie there was no more "This guy needs more time/seasoning/whatever in the minors" discussions and the yo-yo'ing stopped. If they did one full year in the NHL & spent the next 2 in the AHL, I don't count that as being a "full time NHLer", I count that as an anomaly and the team just had no other option.

Atlantic Division

Tukka Rask, full time NHLer at 22. Starter.
Chad Johnson, first full time NHL backup gig this year at 28. Previously a career minor leaguer. Also makes min. salary in the NHL, probably the reason he's here.

Carey Price, full time NHLer at 20. Starter.
Peter Budaj, full time NHLer at 24.

Ben Bishop, full time NHLer at 26 Starter.
Anders Lindback, full time NHLer at 23.

Johnathan Bernier, full time NHLer at 22. Starter.
James Reimer, full time NHLer at 22.

Jonas Gustavsson, full time NHLer at 24 (one month before turning 25).
Jimmy Howard, full time NHLer at 25. Starter.

Robin Lehner, full time NHLer at 22.
Craig Anderson, full time NHLer at 27. Starter.

Tim Thomas, full time NHLer at 31.
Roberto Luongo, full time NHLer at 21. Starter.
Scott Clemensen, full time NHLer at 31.

Jarsolav Halak, full time NHLer at 23. Starter (until he gets traded, that is).
Jhonas Enroth, full time NHLer at 23.

11 of 16 (64.71%) goalies were full-time NHLers by the age of 24.
12 of 16 (70.59%) goalies were full-time NHLers by the age of 25.

5 of 8 (62.50%) starting goalies were NHLers by the age of 24.
6 of 8 (75.00%) starting goalies were NHLers by the age of 25.

Metropolitan Division

Marc-Andre Fleury, full time NHLer at 22. Starter.
Thomas Vokoun, full time NHLer at 23.
Jeff Zatkoff, minor leaguer in the NHL for the time being because of injury.

Steve Mason, full time NHLer at 20. Starter.
Ray Emery, full time NHLer at 23.

Henrik Lundqvist, full time NHLer at 23. Starter.
Cam Talbot, first year in the NHL at 26.

Michal Neuvirth, full time NHLer at 22.
Braden Holtby, full time NHLer at 23. Starter.

Sergei Bobrovsky, full time NHLer at 22. Starter.
Curtis McElhinney, full time NHLer at 27, albeit as a journeyman.

Cory Schneider, full time NHLer at 26. Starter.
The fra---... Martin Brodeur, full time NHLer at 21.

Anton Khudobin, full time NHLer at 26.
Cam Ward, full time NHLer at 21. Starter, albeit always injured.
Justin Peters, career minor league call-up. Never established himself as a regular NHLer at any point.

Evgeni Nabokov, full time NHLer at 25. Starter.
Kevin Poulin, most likely a career minor leaguer playing in the NHL at minimum salary (see Chad Johnson). Age 23 in case he gets another contract next year.

10 of 15 (66.66%) goalies were full time NHLers by the age of 24. 11 of 16 if you count goalies TBD.
11 of 15 (73.33%) goalies were full time NHLers by the age of 25.

6 of 8 (75.00%) starting goalies were NHLers by the age of 24.
7 of 8 (87.50%) starting goalies were NHLers by the age of 25.

Central Division

Ryan Miller, full time NHLer at 25. Starter.
Brian Elliot, full time NHLer at 24.

Corey Crawford, full time NHLer at 26. Starter.
Nikolai Khabibulin, full time NHLer at 22.
Antti Raanta, minor league call-up. TBD. Age 24.

Semyon Varlamov, full time NHLer at 22. Starter.
Jean-Sebastien Giguère, full time NHLer at 23.

Josh Harding, full time NHLer at 23.
Nik Backstrom, full time NHLer at 28. Starter, I think.
Darcy Kuemper, minor league call-up. Age 24 if he sticks in the NHL next year.
Ilya Brizgalov, full time NHLer at 25.

Kari Lehtonen, full time NHLer at 22. Starter.
Dan Ellis, full time NHLer at 27.

Ondrej Pavelec, full time NHLer at 22. Starter, somehow.
Al Montoya, full time NHLer at 26. Backup, somehow.

Pekka Rinne, full time NHLer at 26. Starter.
Carter Hutton, future TBD. Age 26/27 if this is the beginning of his career.
Devan Dubnyk, full time NHLer at 24. Although his NHL career might be coming to a close soon.

9 of 15 (60.00%) goalies were full time NHLers by the age of 24. 10 of 17 if you count the goalies TBD.
11 of 15 (73.33%) goalies were full time NHLers by the age of 25.

4 of 7 (57.14%) starting goalies were NHLers by the age of 24.
4 of 7 (57.14%) starting goalies were NHLers by the age of 25.

Pacific Division

Jonas Hiller, full time NHLer at 25. Starter.
Frederik Andersen, full time NHLer at 24. I'm safely assuming he'll be around for years to come.

Antti Niemi, full time NHLer at 26. Starter.
Alex Stalok, full time NHLer at 26. First year in the league, TBD if he sticks.

Jonathan Quick, full time NHLer at 22. Starter.
Martin Jones, full time NHLer at 24.

Eddie Lack, full time NHLer at 25. I'm safely assuming he's the starter now.
Jacob Markstrom (I guess?), age 24. TBD if he's a full time NHLer.
Joacim Eriksson (?), age 23. TBD if he's a full time NHLer.

Mike Smith, full time NHLer at 24. Starter.
Tomas Greiss, full time NHLer at 26.

Karri Ramo, TBD if he remains a full time NHLer at 27. Starter.
Reto Berra, TBD if he remains a full time NHLer at 26.

Ben Scrivens, full time NHLer at 26. Starter.
Viktor Fasth, TBD if he's a full time NHLer at 31.

4 of 10 (40.00%) goalies were full time NHLers by the age of 24. 6 of 15 if you count the minor leaguers & players TBD.
6 of 10 (60.00%) goalies were full time NHLers by the age of 25. 8 of 15

2 of 7 (28.57%) starting goalies were NHLers by the age of 24.
4 of 7 (57.14%) starting goalies were NHLers by the age of 25.

So, for the whole league...

34 of 56 (60.71%) goalies were full-time NHLers by the age of 24.
40 of 56 (71.43%) goalies were full-time NHLers by the age of 25.

17 of 30 (62.50%) starting goalies were NHLers by the age of 24.
21 of 30 (75.00%) starting goalies were NHLers by the age of 25.

Including goalies TBD (I don't include goalies like Zatkoff & Kuemper who are minor league call-ups for long-term injuries like Vokoun):

39 of 65 (60.00%) goalies were full-time NHLers by the age of 24.
43 of 65 (66.15%) goalies were full-time NHLers by the age of 25.

Now, let's seperate the starting goalies in three categories (Upper Class, Middle Class, Lower Class) and let's see what age they started at in the NHL.

Upper Class: Price, Rask, Bishop, Bernier, Lundqvist, Bobrovsky, Miller, Hiller, Rinne, Quick

Middle Class: Howard, Luongo, Mason, Fleury, Schneider, Crawford, Niemi, Varlamov, Lehtonen, Smith

Lower Class: Anderson, Halak, Holtby, Ward, Nabokov, Backstrom, Pavelec, Lack, Ramo, Scrivens

I think that's a pretty fair ranking for the classes, right? Maybe you could argue Schneider being in the Upper over Quick, but in general I don't think there should be many exceptions.

Now...

Upper Class

5 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 22.
7 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 23.
7 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 24.
8 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 25.
10 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 26.

3 of 10 were first round picks.
2 of 10 were third round picks.
3 of 10 were fifth round picks or later.
2 of 10 were undrafted.

Now, the age they became established starters... For example, Tuuka Rask was the starter at 22, but lost his job to Tim Thomas the next year. He only became the established starter at age 24.

3 of 10 were starters by the age of 23.
5 of 10 were starters by the age of 24.
7 of 10 were starters by the age of 25.
8 of 10 were starters by the age of 26.
10 of 10 were starters by the age of 27.

Middle Class

5 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 22.
5 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 23.
6 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 24.
7 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 25.
10 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 26.

5 of 10 were first round picks.
2 of 10 were second round picks.
2 of 10 were third or fifth round picks.
1 of 10 was undrafted.

3 of 10 were starters by the age of 22.
5 of 10 were starters by the age of 23.
5 of 10 were starters by the age of 24.
6 of 10 were starters by the age of 25.
9 of 10 were starters by the age of 26.
Mike Smith only became an established starter at the age of 29.

Lower Class

2 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 22.
4 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 23.
4 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 24.
6 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 25.
7 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 26.
9 of 10 were full time NHLers by the age of 27.
Niklas Backstrom only became an established NHLer at the age of 28.

1 of 10 was a first round pick.
1 of 10 was a second round pick.
2 of 10 were third or fourth round picks.
1 of 10 was a sixth round pick.
2 of 10 were ninth round pîcks.
3 of 10 were undrafted.

1 of 10 was a starter by the age of 22.
3 of 10 were starters by the age of 23.
4 of 10 were starters by the age of 24.
6 of 10 were starters by the age of 25.
7 of 10 were starters by the age of 26.
8 of 10 were starters by the age of 27.
10 of 10 were starters by the age of 28.

----

Bottom line is, while Jacob Markstrom at 24 still has a chance to become a everyday NHLer (Whether that's as a starter or a backup remains to be seen), he's running out of time. Over 70% of the goalies in the league are at the very least backups by the age of 25 and he wasn't even able to be good enough to backup the legion of shitty goalies they had in Florida.

Next season for him should be his last chance.

By the way, anything I missed out someone would want me to research?

You Habs fans and your stats.



:couch

Heh, jk. Good work. I still think they did OK though.

Curious, the package they nearly traded Lou for at the last deadline was Scrivens and two seconds - they said they'd agreed on it and Gillis accused Nonis of bailing at the last minute. How do you think that compares to Matthias, Markstrom?

That deal would have been better than what Gillis got today. At least Scrivens looks like someone who, if he isn't a starter, could be a good backup.

Markstrom doesn't look like he's going to end up as much if he can't force his way onto the Panthers roster with their crap as goalies. Matthias is a third line center at best.

I honestly think it's a really good deal for Florida. You get a goalie who can be really good at times without giving up much. At a certain point, you can't just keep losing & losing & losing every single year and hope things will spontaneously fix themselves with draft picks. You have to get some real players to surround your younger player.

But have you even watched Markstrom play?

Truth be told I hope Markstrom's a complete bust. Gillis deserves it, hate that guy.

Thanks for doing that GGpX.....Ill take a longer look tomorrow.

I don't bother with a goalie's stats.....I just wait for the GM to call him a thoroughbred.

worm said:

Thanks for doing that GGpX.....Ill take a longer look tomorrow.

Click to expand...

Sort of like "the cheque is in the mail"

GGpX,

Solid work and I largely agree with you. I've got an idea to add more research, focus on the guys that made it to the NHL breaking in at 25-27, take all those goalies and calculate how many were drafted in the 1st round, 2nd etc.... I have a feeling a lot of the guys that make it as 25 year olds, were projects, either drafted late or not drafted at all.

worm said:

But have you even watched Markstrom play?

Click to expand...

I have, he's huge in net but prone to opening holes and doesn't move laterally week without opening large holes.

Btw, excellent work GG, thanks for taking the time to compile it.

Great job. But Mike Smith is upper class. Jonathan Bernier is middle class just because he's at his first season as a starter but he's going to be upper class.


And even there, I still believe Markstrom isn't a bust yet. Every giant goalies takes time to develop. Now he's gonna have a defense in front of him.

rouah said:

Great job. But Mike Smith is upper class. Jonathan Bernier is middle class just because he's at his first season as a starter but he's going to be upper class.


And even there, I still believe Markstrom isn't a bust yet. Every giant goalies takes time to develop. Now he's gonna have a defense in front of him.

Click to expand...

I think you've been listening to too many leaf fans. If the Nucks are smart, they'll let Markstrom season some more in the AHL. I'd say Mike Smith needs another year at that level to be fully immersed as upper class. But I'm a nit and barely think Price fits that category.

Mike Smith was the 3rd goalie for Team Canada, I think he deserves to be considered upper class. Being a regular starter in the last 3 seasons is a better indicator than being the new fresh goalie in Leafs land.

great work , thanks for the effort you put into this

rouah said:

Mike Smith was the 3rd goalie for Team Canada, I think he deserves to be considered upper class. Being a regular starter in the last 3 seasons is a better indicator than being the new fresh goalie in Leafs land.

Click to expand...

Mike Smith is 28th and 24th this year in GAA and sv%, last year he was 28th and 25th, those aren't upper class numbers to me. He is actually firmly middle class.

Stats aren't everything. He happens to play for the Coyotes.

rouah said:

Stats aren't everything. He happens to play for the Coyotes.

Click to expand...

He couldn't do anything as a starter in TB and he has mediocre numbers in Phoenix, just because he didn't even get to be a bench warmer but merely a water boy for Team Canada, doesn't make him upper tier. He's a streaky goalie imo, he has flashes of brilliance.

But Bernier is? :drink


Scrivens is the league leader in terms of Sv %, doesn't that makes him a upper tier?

Biaised judgment by stats.

rouah said:

But Bernier is? :drink


Scrivens is the league leader in terms of Sv %, doesn't that makes him a upper tier?

Biaised judgment by stats.

Click to expand...

No, when you talked about Bernier, I said you've been listening to too many leafs fans. Scrivens is just a flash in the pan still.

It takes years of consistency and high level play to be upper tier, if you took the time to read my posts, I said Price is barely upper tier. One season doesn't make you elite.