Gale Force ... You're On the Clock ... Post Season Changes Thread

While not a doctor, I don't think it's too surprising that he hasn't "fully recovered".

Here's the source of all the buzz:

Dmitry Chesnokov
‏@dchesnokov
#Canes Alexander Semin has not yet fully recovered from the wrist surgery. He will travel to the US to rehab this weekend.

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It was announced mid-April that off-season surgery would occur, but we don't know exactly when it did occur. Might have been a period of time in which swelling as a result of playing with the injury was allowed to reduce via rest.

We know from a reported Francis quote that it had at least occurred by May 28th. Francis reportedly commented again on July 13th that Semin was "progressing as expected" and was on schedule for the start of training camp.

I'll leave it to those with more medical knowledge than me, but my limited understanding is that there is a significant period of time post-op allotted just for the surgery to heal (six weeks or more?) before the strength and flexibility rehab begins in earnest.

So, it would seem entirely possible that he could still be "on schedule" and yet "not fully recovered" here in early August.

It's improbable the canes with a couple dollars riding in semin wouldn't be keeping very close tabs on him.

On Semin's recovery, it entirely depends on what kind of surgery he had on the wrist. They've not been terribly specific, but if it was surgery to correct a ligament problem I could see a long recovery time. And if he effectively didn't have surgery until around the end of May, then we're "only" 10 weeks or so down the road. Major surgery followed by by several weeks of recovery and 2 months of rehab? OK. Fine.

As for keeping tabs on rehab ... tough to do when they guy's halfway across the world. I dunno.

Bottom line ... both Staal and Semin sound like they'll be coming into camp in less than full health. Bad sign for the season? You bet it is.

jeffbear said:

On Semin's recovery, it entirely depends on what kind of surgery he had on the wrist. They've not been terribly specific, but if it was surgery to correct a ligament problem I could see a long recovery time. And if he effectively didn't have surgery until around the end of May, then we're "only" 10 weeks or so down the road. Major surgery followed by by several weeks of recovery and 2 months of rehab? OK. Fine.

As for keeping tabs on rehab ... tough to do when they guy's halfway across the world. I dunno.

Bottom line ... both Staal and Semin sound like they'll be coming into camp in less than full health. Bad sign for the season? You bet it is.

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But we gutted our 4th line!!

jeffbear said:

On Semin's recovery, it entirely depends on what kind of surgery he had on the wrist. They've not been terribly specific, but if it was surgery to correct a ligament problem I could see a long recovery time. And if he effectively didn't have surgery until around the end of May, then we're "only" 10 weeks or so down the road. Major surgery followed by by several weeks of recovery and 2 months of rehab? OK. Fine.

As for keeping tabs on rehab ... tough to do when they guy's halfway across the world. I dunno.

Bottom line ... both Staal and Semin sound like they'll be coming into camp in less than full health. Bad sign for the season? You bet it is.

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Keep printing those Connor McDavid lottery tickets out...the odds of winning are increasing daily!!!

jeffbear said:

On Semin's recovery, it entirely depends on what kind of surgery he had on the wrist. They've not been terribly specific, but if it was surgery to correct a ligament problem I could see a long recovery time. And if he effectively didn't have surgery until around the end of May, then we're "only" 10 weeks or so down the road. Major surgery followed by by several weeks of recovery and 2 months of rehab? OK. Fine.

As for keeping tabs on rehab ... tough to do when they guy's halfway across the world. I dunno.

Bottom line ... both Staal and Semin sound like they'll be coming into camp in less than full health. Bad sign for the season? You bet it is.

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Francis and Peters are already practicing the end of year speech. 'If it hadn't been for the third string goalie and the debilitating injuries to our two stars, Staal the elder and semin the injured, we would have won the metropolitan division and gone deep into the playoffs if not winning it all. The NHL owes us a cup. But, the real key to the dismal season was the injuries to both khabby and cward. The third string goalie, although he won 17 games and lost none and had a GAA of 0.9 and sv% of .989 and faced upwards of 50 shots per game, was the reason for our loss. He bears the responsibility of the rest of the team having a 1.5 goals for during that time. He did not, and I repeat, did not pass the puck to our forwards in a timely and decent manner. And we worked and worked with him. What is the sense of making a save if not being able to clear the puck to our sprinting up the ice forward? Make the save, control the puck and pass it to a wing. What could be simpler? The wings of course became accustomed to his sloppy play and when our real goalies came back couldn't respond either before or after the other team scored a goal. Yes, it's good riddance to him. Next year we will be a very healthy team! And because we are going to the cup next year there will be a very slight increase in prices. The average ticket price will be 23% higher, parking will be $25, and concessions will ride 50%. This will keep us in line with the other NHL premier teams.
And for more very good news, we have reached an agreement with staal the elder in an extension. It's for 10 years at an average of 10.75m per year. We know he only scored 9 goals last year but he was badly injured mans promised to be in fantastic shape for training camp. We have our captain back!
Two other signings of note: Chad LaRose will be joining our club after his breakthrough year with the cherkers. We've signed him for 5 years at only 2.5 per year! And last but certainly not least, Tim Gleason has resigned! We've got him for the next 7 years at 3 per year! All of these are steals and will lead us to the cup next year!
Ok, any questions? No? Thanks much and I'll see you in training camp.
We like our team!

Feels like I just saw an episode of Lost...some kind of alternate future that seems semi-believable.

Well done, dwind.

JamesNorthern said:

But we gutted our 4th line!!

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And out first line gutted itself ... again. Anti-smiley face.

Dog days of hockey, eh?

Okay, let's try this little mind exercise. Suppose Ronnie's phone rings and it's Winnepeg's GM on the line dangling Evander Kane's contract for Cam Ward's. They have no confidence whatsoever in even starting the season with Pavelek in goal (0.906, 0.905, and 0.901 SV% over the past three seasons) and Maurice has convinced Cheveldayoff that Cam's 0.898 SV% last season was an injury-related aberration.

Beside, Cam's contract is only for one more season after the pending one ($6.7M/$6.8M) and they have nothing in sight for goalie relief, so why not buy a couple of years while they figure out their next move? Also, they're reportedly unhappy with Kane's under-performance (and perhaps other issues?) and want to get out from under the remaining four seasons on his $6M/yr contract.

Are we interested? Straight up, or who has to sweeten the deal?

Evander had 41 points (19G/22A) last season with a 7.6% shooting percentage. That's an off-year for him as he averages 9.1%, which is about league average, and he's still young, so there's theoretical upside here.

He's 23, 6'2", 195 lbs and shoots left.

So, would we be better off just gritting our teeth and getting through this season with a 1A/1B goalie tandem, looking for a trade with a desperate team if we're out of it or an offseason buyout? We'd have salary budget relief eventually, if so, and could repurpose that money elsewhere.

Or, would we be better off adding yet another $6M man to the forwards, even with the four-year contract commitment, and maybe look to deal Tlusty or Gerbe if we think we have too many left shots on the roster (which we probably would at that point)?


EDIT: For comparison purposes, last season's results for two of our own under-performing players alongside Kane's:

Jordan - $6M/yr w/40 points (15G/25A) 9.1 S%
Semin - $7M/yr w/42 points (22G/20A) 10.5 S%
Kane - $6M/yr w/41 points (19G/22A) 7.6% S%

Even trade? Absolutely!!!!

Right now, we have $5.26 million available but only 11 forwards are included in that number: Staal, Semin, Staal, Skinner, Tlusty, Gerbe, McClement, Lindholm, Dwyer, Malone and Nash. Let's say we add 2 more Cherkers to get to 13 so that will add about $1.2 - 1.5 million, depending on who they are. So now we're at $3.76 million available but we have a full 23 man roster. While Kane's actual salary is $6 million, his cap hit is only $5.25 million but Winnipeg has over $9 million in cap space. Actual salary difference between Kane and Ward is $800K, cap hit difference is $1.05 million. Maybe they want us to take $1 million of Ward's salary, to leave them cap neutral.

So, this is where the Canes land. Cap payroll $63.74 million - $6.3 million (Ward) - $0.75 million (Cherker forward) + $5.25 million (Kane) + $1 million (Ward retained salary). That actually leaves us better off cap wise at $62.94 million. But now we need another goalie. Do we keep MacIntyre as the backup? He's played 6 agmes in the NHL. Here is your list of UFA goalies: Brodeur, Thomas, Bryzgalov, Khabibulin, Vokoun, Giguere, Heeter, Millan, Roy, Stajcer, Danis, Lawson, Delmas, Leneveau, Reiter. Most of the guys you've never heard of have fewer NHL games than MacIntyre. Of those you have heard of, Bryzgalov is the youngest at 34 and would probably be the cheapest, because he's still collecting the buyout cash from the Flyers. But he cost the Wild $2 million last year. This late, you could probably get him for less, so let's assume that you're going to pay a backup about $1.25 - 1.5 million. Now we're at $64.44 million. We end up in a worse cap position than where we started.

Kane has 1 30 goal season and 1 50 point season in his career, both in 11-12. He played 63 games last year and was on a 25 goal, 53 point pace. Are you prepared to pay $24 million actual/$21 million cap until 2018 for a guy who, while young, hasn't produced in the 2 years since he signed that contract? I'm not sure that I am.

I'd rather have a bad contract skating in my top 6, then on bench door duty for 55-65 games.

People tend to often overlook the fact that Ward has been absolutely horrible for 3+ seasons now. And he's the NHLs worst shootout breakaway goalie, hands down. The Canes can do better.

TheBigKahuna said:

I'd rather have a bad contract skating in my top 6, then on bench door duty for 55-65 games.

People tend to often overlook the fact that Ward has been absolutely horrible for 3+ seasons now. And he's the NHLs worst shootout breakaway goalie, hands down. The Canes can do better.

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You mean like Tuomo Ruutu? Are the extra 7 points from Kane for a full season (based on career points per game) worth the extra $500K cap hit or $1 million of extra salary? For the next 4 seasons? Yeah, Ward has been bad for a few years. But we're done with him in 2 years. Kane will be an albatross for another 2 beyond that. And because you have to find an experienced backup goalie, you potentially end up in a worse cap position than you are now.

I would trade Ward for Kane straight up anytime. Kane still has upside and one of his biggest problems has been staying healthy. If he can figure out the health part and fall under some good leadership (very questionable on Canes) then he is looking at a 25G and 60 point guy with a physical edge. He has 4 more years at $5.25M cap hit so the risk is obviously on his ability to stay healthy.

The trade unquestionably would improve the Hurricanes roster for the next two years as you get a big contributor in the top 9 versus a guy swinging the door open/close. The question is two summers from now could the Canes better spend the $12M salary he will be owed in from 2016-2018 (2 years @ $6M per or $5.25M caphit) that would be available when Ward is finally gone? Given the way FA contracts are heading and the Canes ability to nab those guys, I say the Canes should take this risk and go for the deal if ever presented. It is a risk worth taking that has more upside than risk.

Barring a change in the nature of our ownership (one can hope), for the next few seasons it's realistically more about salary than cap limit, since PK is presumably making up the gap between revenue and expenses off the hip.

So working within that imposed salary budget, it would be nice to see some of that excessive goalie money re-purposed into our anemic defense. Current strategy, at least on the surface, seems to be to just wait out Cam's contract and see how this goalie duel plays out.

And, yes this eventually frees up the money, but it sure doesn't help the Now. And adding Kane to our top six mix is pretty damn intriguing, despite our defensive needs.

So, if this call occurred and we did bite, one path to moving some of that goalie money to the defense is to lower the inflated forward budget with an O for D trade, aiming for a second-pairing D-man.

With Kane, we would have five left-shot wingers. So, I nominate Tlusty for that mission. That leaves Skinner, Kane, Gerbe, and Malone for LW's, with Boychuk's left shot possibly playing an off-wing RW role for us and Terry on deck for injury relief.

I'd be good with that. And Tlusty's $2.95M one-year rental status would work well for someone shedding a longer-term D contract of similar value.

So money shifts fom goalie to both forwards and defense under that scenario...which is what we need to happen some way some how.

CarolinaPen said:

I would trade Ward for Kane straight up anytime. Kane still has upside and one of his biggest problems has been staying healthy. If he can figure out the health part and fall under some good leadership (very questionable on Canes) then he is looking at a 25G and 60 point guy with a physical edge. He has 4 more years at $5.25M cap hit so the risk is obviously on his ability to stay healthy.

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Based on what? His career numbers project to 25 G and 50 points. And last year was really the only time he missed significant time. He played all 48 games in 11-12 and missed a total of 17 in the 2 seasons before that. He's Tuomo Ruutu with a bigger contract.

andyt said:

Based on what? His career numbers project to 25 G and 50 points. And last year was really the only time he missed significant time. He played all 48 games in 11-12 and missed a total of 17 in the 2 seasons before that. He's Tuomo Ruutu with a bigger contract.

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Ok, so he is 25G and 50P per year. Sorry but that is better than Ruutu and there is still good upside. Ruutu has hit the 25G/50P season ONCE his entire career and he is 31. Kane has already hit that mark with the lockout and injuries derailing him from doing it other 2 seasons and he just turned 23. Kane is also tracking with better number after his first 5 seasons than Ruutu. Kane is not Ruutu and has more skill and a better frame to fill out as he matures.

I don't see a big issue a couple years down the road paying a $6M salary ($5.25M) cap hit for 25G and 50-60 points per year. Not many other guys on the Canes roster are doing that and some are making more. Salaries are also trending up so 2-3 years from now it is likely a good deal, especially if he brings some on ice toughness with him and matures as he get older. The only reason this has not happened is Winnipeg would likely never go for it. It is a much worse deal for them and I would bet there is a better market than a $6.3M backup goalie if they ever decided to move Evander Kane.

CarolinaPen said:

...The only reason this has not happened is Winnipeg would likely never go for it. It is a much worse deal for them and I would bet there is a better market than a $6.3M backup goalie if they ever decided to move Evander Kane.

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Circling back to my original post on this, straight-up or does either team have to add, I wouldn't do a straight-up trade if I were Winnipeg either. I keep seeing the rumors on fan boards and elsewhere of this potential trade scenario, probably mostly because on the surface it looks like a contract-for-contract trade that satisfies team needs for both.

But I think we would have to sweeten that deal to make it happen. And that might involve more than just eating some of Cam's salary for the next two seasons. We might have to send another asset of value along to them, as well, just to make the salary budgets work out, if nothing else.

We get the $6M LW, but have to retain some of Cam's salary to do so AND hire a back-up goalie.

Salary relief for us might still be sending either Tlusty ($2.95M) to plug the LW slot that Kane just vacated with his one-year contract until recent draftee Ehlers can claim it, or perhaps Maurice would like to have Liles ($4.25M/$2.75M remaining) back in his flock.

That way Winnipeg gets the #1 goalie they need for less than his $6.7M/$6.8M remaining contract and a top-six LW bandaid or a serviceable third-pairing puck-carrying defensemen for slightly more than they were paying Kane.

The Canes get out from under their two-headed goalie situation with the over-payment for Cam slightly mitigated by Anton's friendly contract for #1 duties. I'm not sure I consider Kane to be an upgrade over Tlusty right away, but he could be so down the line. Three years younger (23) puts him more in line with our new emerging core, as well.

Is it just me or do the Canes seems paper-thin on the wings in terms of both depth and legit prospects in the system for the future?

Outside of Semin, Skinner and Tlusty...where on earth is the talent and skill on the wings now and for the future???

Gerbe, Dwyer, B. Malone, Boychuk...really???

McGinn, Rask and DiGiuseppe seem like the only three prospects on the wing in the system that may have a legit chance of being everyday NHL players at some point.

I think your perception is correct. We are thin in the prospect ranks for wingers, with perhaps only McGinn in a bottom-six role even being discussed as being a potential NHL'er.

Have quite a few defensive prospects maturing nicely that look like they might have NHL games. Surely at least one of Carrick, Pesce, or Slavin will make it, along with Fleury (and Murphy for those that still consider him a prospect).

Centers also weak, with Rask the only one being discussed potentially having a NHL game of which I am aware.

But wingers? Yes, we're thin. Boychuk (to date) and Dalpe not working out for us really hurt in that department.

Partly the reason that the theoretical trade for Evander Kane above intrigues.