northernlou
Idi Admin
The Edge of a Cold, Deep Abyss?
The warmists have their models, grants and tidings of doom, but the researchers whose tree ring data has best predicted recent temperature trends see the mercury dropping, perhaps by as much as 4 degrees. If they are right, then there is reason to be worried, very worried indeed.
There was a time in climate science when tree rings were used for good instead of evil, a time of innocent enquiry, a time that ended in the corruption of science. From that time, one of the best predictions of climate ever made (weighted for distance and accuracy) was by two Californian researchers, Leona Libby and Louis Pandolfi. In 1979, they used tree ring data from redwoods in Kings Canyon to make a remarkably accurate forecast1.
From a Los Angeles Times interview of that year:
Three or four degrees! That would be worth confirming wouldn’t it? Confirmation had to wait almost 30 years later in a conference poster by Finnish forestry workers (Timonen et al 2007):
The tree ring readings of the Finnish foresters are predicting a large decline in temperature bottoming out in about 2045. The downturn you see on the right hand side of the graph is larger than any other in the last 500 years. A cold period longer and deeper than any other in the last 500 years would have lots of real world consequences. That would be worth following up on, wouldn’t it?
Well, we now have a way of cross-checking the tree-ring based predictions. A just-released climate model using a notch-delay filter has the promise of providing much higher resolution in climate forecasting. Using historic TSI data, the model can see out to 2025.
continued ... http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/06/edge-cold-deep-abyss/
The warmists have their models, grants and tidings of doom, but the researchers whose tree ring data has best predicted recent temperature trends see the mercury dropping, perhaps by as much as 4 degrees. If they are right, then there is reason to be worried, very worried indeed.
There was a time in climate science when tree rings were used for good instead of evil, a time of innocent enquiry, a time that ended in the corruption of science. From that time, one of the best predictions of climate ever made (weighted for distance and accuracy) was by two Californian researchers, Leona Libby and Louis Pandolfi. In 1979, they used tree ring data from redwoods in Kings Canyon to make a remarkably accurate forecast1.
From a Los Angeles Times interview of that year:
Three or four degrees! That would be worth confirming wouldn’t it? Confirmation had to wait almost 30 years later in a conference poster by Finnish forestry workers (Timonen et al 2007):
The tree ring readings of the Finnish foresters are predicting a large decline in temperature bottoming out in about 2045. The downturn you see on the right hand side of the graph is larger than any other in the last 500 years. A cold period longer and deeper than any other in the last 500 years would have lots of real world consequences. That would be worth following up on, wouldn’t it?
Well, we now have a way of cross-checking the tree-ring based predictions. A just-released climate model using a notch-delay filter has the promise of providing much higher resolution in climate forecasting. Using historic TSI data, the model can see out to 2025.
continued ... http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/06/edge-cold-deep-abyss/