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Leafs at Islanders -- Tuesday, 7 pm

yeah there's been plenty of stuff written on why close is the best, which is usually under the umbrella of "score effects".

And it follows along with logic, too - teams adjust their strategy depending on the score. Teams will sit on leads, or even just plain let up with big ones, while teams a few goals down might just start riskng everything and going all out attack, or might just capitulate and give up. The Close numbers have for the most part been better predictors than the overall numbers.

the downside is the that you're cutting off a good chunk of your sample size when you do it and that those non-close situations probably do tell you something about the teams too.

So theyve started using score adjusted numbers that let you use all the data points without ignoring score effects. Of course, I'm not sure that they're doing quite the RIGHT adjustments yet, but the early returns seem to be sensible. They seem to make better predictions so far.....from what I know about them, which isn't a whole lot. its hard to find much info on the score adjusted numbers as of yet.

:cheers2:
 
I am not-so-secretly hoping we'll slide towards a 2-8 or 3-7 record so we can get a new coach before it's too late to salvage the season. :)

I'm convinced you're stuck with Carlyle and it is all part of the plan to get McDavid or Eichel. There is no way on Earth Shanahan doesn't see how bad Carlyle is. Couple that with his handcuffing Nonis from firing Carlyle and break out your tinfoil hat.

The Leafs will never be as bad as Edmonton, Carolina or Buffalo but if they manage another top 5 pick they can move up to get either player. McDavid in Toronto would make me puke and zeke cream.
 
I'm convinced you're stuck with Carlyle and it is all part of the plan to get McDavid or Eichel. There is no way on Earth Shanahan doesn't see how bad Carlyle is. Couple that with his handcuffing Nonis from firing Carlyle and break out your tinfoil hat.

The Leafs will never be as bad as Edmonton, Carolina or Buffalo but if they manage another top 5 pick they can move up to get either player. McDavid in Toronto would make me puke and zeke cream.

I think you're right that Shanahan probably already sees Carlyle's not the guy going forward but I think if the "plan" is to get McDavid or Eichel, they didn't do a good enough job on execution - this team is probably too good to be in reach of those guys and I'm not sure it'll be as easy to move up as you're suggesting. Though with Edmonton I guess there's a chance.
 
I think you're right that Shanahan probably already sees Carlyle's not the guy going forward but I think if the "plan" is to get McDavid or Eichel, they didn't do a good enough job on execution - this team is probably too good to be in reach of those guys and I'm not sure it'll be as easy to move up as you're suggesting. Though with Edmonton I guess there's a chance.

Ya. Nobody is trading McDavid.
 
Funnily enough, for once the advanced stats actually support randy's decision on the defensemen.

5v5 CF%

Phaneuf 52.6
Franson 49.6
Gardiner 49.1
Polak 47.0
Rielly 46.6
Robidas 44.2
Percy 42.5

All the advanced stats say Franson's great and he usually is, IMO, for about 59 minutes/night. Then he'll **** shit up to the point even you're cursing him. Jekyl and Hyde. So frustrating.
 
Yeah, I have trouble reading into advanced stats that much, given what I've seen.

I also think Randy simply sits the young guys. He doesn't go by anything else.
 
Carlyle is keeping Babcock's seat warm.

The problem is, I think we are just too talented to get a top 3 pick unless there's a very lucky lottery win.
 
Predict a loss, bitch about Reimer and Bernier and shit on Kessel for not scoring 5 goals. This is the GDT template

You forgot to blame it all on Caryle. <-- Making a thread about that topic the second the game is over is the best way to go about this. (but only if they lose)
 
All the advanced stats say Franson's great and he usually is, IMO, for about 59 minutes/night. Then he'll **** shit up to the point even you're cursing him. Jekyl and Hyde. So frustrating.
There's a stat we need; measuring mistake free hockey against if (and/or when) you screw up and does it end up in a goal against?
 
Fransons always lacked hockey iq and I do want him traded but he's been solid the past 3-4 games, I hope he keeps it up so he can be dealt for a nice package at the deadline.
 
I actually think considering how this team's performed over the past decade or so, that this board is more positive than you'd expect (and certainly more positive than other boards).
 
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