Canes Rebuild 2015 - Who's first to be traded and who's left?

Since every game thread is pretty much turning into a "blow up the team" thread it will be good to have a discussion running outside of the game threads. We all know it HAS to be coming...the Canes organization isn't that clueless are they? Unless there is a sneaky deal before the Holiday Trade Freeze I expect the action to pick up with roster changes in January.

First to get traded? - My head and heart want it to be Eric Staal. That move will initiate the true ringing of the rebuild bell and return the most value to the Canes. Toronto just seems to make sense.

The reality is it will be Tlusty or Sekera. I don't think RF has the nads to trade Eric Staal.....yet.

I am good with moving everyone on the roster outside of JStaal, Skinner, Lindholm, Faulk and Fleury. To me everyone else if fair game if you get value back. Combine that core with McDavid or Eichel and some other acquired talent/picks and Carolina will be competing for a playoff spot in 2-3 years...with upside to go after that. Could even happen quicker if Semin ever decides to play again and Canes get good return on trades.

Where I might differ from others is in keeping Skinner and unloading Murphy. Skinner is just far too talented offensively and is someone that can help sell the game to fans. 30 goal guys don't grow on trees and he is still very young. Sure he is a risk to get injured, but who isn't? If he learns any defensive responsibility without losing his offense he is an all star player for years.

Murphy is an enigma of sorts. Given how sad the Canes roster is on D, it is hard to believe he is not playing big minutes this year. I fully commend the Canes for actually showing patience and trying to have him develop in Charlotte, but I have no faith in coaching staff there. His development worries me a bit but he could shine elsewhere that has better player dev history than Canes. It is a risk so the return would have to be a younger NHL ready top 4 Dman...preferably with size.

My biggest hope with Fleury is that he can jump comfortably from juniors to the NHL. I don't want him caught in mess that has become Murphy's career to date and Canes AHL team.

First to go?

I hope it's a package deal of E. Staal and Semin to the Oilers for their first round pick.

I think the first trade will be something smaller along the lines of trading Tim Gleason for a 7th round pick.

There were discussions in other threads about the Canes not really needing to take back players from other teams if/when we trade E. Staal, Cam, etc. The problem is that for many teams, they are going to need to send back something to offset their cap hit. This is where it becomes a very difficult balancing act in this NHL cap world. You have to take something back in a trade, but really need to avoid piling up mid-career 3rd line wingers in these trades (at least not ones that are not going to be FAs at the end of this season). When Paul Holmgren would dump the entire Whalers team via trades back in the day, we got a whole lot of Jocelyn Lemieuxs, Paul Ranheims and Robert Krons back. That is what other teams are going to want to send us back to stay under the cap.

The first couple of trades will essentially be nothing of note.
If something major is done - I think it will be close to the trade deadline.

I think Dan is on the right track.

It's going to be tough to move anybody of any note right now, so you have to think that the deadline will provide that little spark of stupid in other GMs that will allow Francis to finally shed some of the shackles that Jimmy left him with.

Best guesses ...

If another club gets hammered with injuries in net, you could see either Khudobin or Ward moved. At this point, I doubt anybody cares which one either.

As the new scouting staff starts to come to grips with the junk and gems (sadly it's mostly the former) that are in our development system, you'd like to see some minor league and juniors level moves to prep for the next generation. Are guys like Murphy, Lowe, Biega and Rissanen going to be able to step up to the NHL level in the next 2 seasons? Are they worth letting sit on simmer in Charlotte? If not, shift 'em and get what you can. I still think Murphy could generate some interest from the right kind of team. If you do move an NHL keeper we're going to need another one in the pipleline so you could see that as a targeted return at some point.

Sounds like a lot of you are down on moving Tlusty or Sekera, but I honestly believe that Ronnie simply HAS to make some sort of move before he completely loses even the hardcore fan base. Those are your two most sale-able assets. I see one of them being moved simply to show that management is making some bloody effort towards fixing this mess.

At the deadline I think moving Staal and Ward HAS to be the goal. That frees up your budget for making additional moves, whereas otherwise you're just dead in the water. It would also indicate that management finally recognizes that the core of this team is a rotten, fetid mess. I'd add Semin to that list if I thought there was a hope in heck of moving him, but I suspect we're going to end up buying that guy out at some point. What do you get back? Who knows, but I do think you could probably get a decent prospect and a pick in a package for Staal. Ward is a crap shoot and I think all you really want is to avoid paying him 6+ million bucks next season ... even if you have to cut a deal where you participate in his salary.

For those worried about competing next season ... just go ahead and get that thought out of your minds. It ain't gonna happen. Think instead about building towards being halfway decent in 2016-17. That means that draft picks in THIS DRAFT are super important. So any vet who can bring you a pick right now and who likely won't be around in 16-17 anyway ... ship 'em out.

Add Victor Rask to the list of keepers as he is the only center we have right now capable of generating any offensive flow. He's big, hard to knock off the puck, and almost always makes a smart play. Scoring chances increase demonstrably for Carolina when he is on the ice, and he's only going to get better. It's hard to see it through the stinkage, but he is blossoming before our eyes.

One way out of the Cap Limit problem trading our high paid guys would be for Francis to eat some salary for the rest of this year. The new teams can then assess in the summer how to reorganize to keep them if they want. And if we just take back picks or prospects it's not really costing anything.

jeffbear said:

Sounds like a lot of you are down on moving Tlusty or Sekera, but I honestly believe that Ronnie simply HAS to make some sort of move before he completely loses even the hardcore fan base.

Click to expand...

This is where I disagree with you. A move for the sake of a move is exactly the kind of thing that would piss off a hardcore fan like me. I want to see moves that are part of a long-term plan.

As I've said in at least two other threads before, I don't think you move relatively young, inexpensive vets who can be a part of your future unless you can get huge returns for them (which, as andyt correctly pointed out elsewhere, is relatively unlikely with Sekera and Tlusty given that both are UFAs at the end of the year). This hardcore fan will stay loyal and watch a rebuild if we're making progress towards a long-range plan for building a sustainable winner.

JFG said:

One way out of the Cap Limit problem trading our high paid guys would be for Francis to eat some salary for the rest of this year. The new teams can then assess in the summer how to reorganize to keep them if they want. And if we just take back picks or prospects it's not really costing anything.

Click to expand...

What you eat still goes against the cap, so unless you can get away with diet-sized portions, you don't get out of your cap limit problem.

JFG said:

One way out of the Cap Limit problem trading our high paid guys would be for Francis to eat some salary for the rest of this year. The new teams can then assess in the summer how to reorganize to keep them if they want. And if we just take back picks or prospects it's not really costing anything.

Click to expand...

He'd have to eat salary for the duration of the contract, not just this year. And as CM pointed out above, and I've pointed out before, moving Staal, Ward, etc. will require us eating salary, taking back an equally bad contract or a combination of both. In a capped world, teams just can't take on $6-8 million of salary without shedding some of their own. At least Staal and Ward only have 1 more year on their contracts, that should make it somewhat easier to move them, assuming of course that they waive their NTC.

brassbonanza said:

Add Victor Rask to the list of keepers as he is the only center we have right now capable of generating any offensive flow. He's big, hard to knock off the puck, and almost always makes a smart play. Scoring chances increase demonstrably for Carolina when he is on the ice, and he's only going to get better. It's hard to see it through the stinkage, but he is blossoming before our eyes.

Click to expand...

:iagree:

HeyKurtz said:

This is where I disagree with you. A move for the sake of a move is exactly the kind of thing that would piss off a hardcore fan like me. I want to see moves that are part of a long-term plan.

As I've said in at least two other threads before, I don't think you move relatively young, inexpensive vets who can be a part of your future unless you can get huge returns for them (which, as andyt correctly pointed out elsewhere, is relatively unlikely with Sekera and Tlusty given that both are UFAs at the end of the year). This hardcore fan will stay loyal and watch a rebuild if we're making progress towards a long-range plan for building a sustainable winner.

Click to expand...

To be clear, I am NOT advocating "a move just to make a move." You know that. I am however advocating a move as a signal that somebody up there has the lights on. It obviously should be a move that improves the long term position of the club. Thus far the only real move like that made under Francis' watch was picking up Nestrasil on waivers. Hardly a big deal and it involved no real change to the makeup on the existing roster. Good move, but no kind of signal flare or anything.

Bottom line ... I'm looking for a sign from Ronnie so I can figure out where he stands. If he's seriously just going to try and wait this out with a high draft pick and the same broken roster, I'm out. I may or may not retain tickets, but I will shift to NHL fan mode and give exactly no craps about this franchise. I'm not wasting another drop of emotional investment in this club until they start acting like there's a problem ... THEIR problem, not the fans.'

So far Francis is far too good of a poker player to read as to where he really is on the keep him or trade him call on Eric.

But my hope springs from his open discussions before the season began that Eric and he had talked on more than one occasion during the off-season about the expectations for the next season, with an implied "and beyond".

The quote I really remember is him talking about just how important a season this was going to be for Eric. From which I heard "shape up or ship out".

Would seem this would be the season (or off-season) in which either a contract extension or a trade happens instead of his final contract year.

A point to consider about Tlusty and Sekara is they could still sign with Canes long term even if they are traded at deadline. I say if you can get a 2nd rounder for them, you have to make the deal and then let the cards fall where they may. Unless they light it up with the new teams, they won't sign before becoming a UFA so the Canes will have a shot to bring them back over the summer. The Canes have done this in the past with Wesley so there is organizational precedence here. That is honestly the ideal situation with them.

CarolinaPen said:

A point to consider about Tlusty and Sekara is they could still sign with Canes long term even if they are traded at deadline. I say if you can get a 2nd rounder for them, you have to make the deal and then let the cards fall where they may. Unless they light it up with the new teams, they won't sign before becoming a UFA so the Canes will have a shot to bring them back over the summer. The Canes have done this in the past with Wesley so there is organizational precedence here. That is honestly the ideal situation with them.

Click to expand...

Why would anyone who is in demand on playoff-contending teams want to come back here? I know its a nice place to live and raise a family and whatever, but so are a lot of places if you are making $3M. That said, I don't think I'd turn down a 2d rounder for either unless they were willing to take a major hometown discount, and maybe not even then.

Someone pointed out earlier the canes do not have budget room to sign Tlusty and or Sekera.
They will both be asking for significant raises. If they are willing to accept a wage within the canes pay structure I'm sure the canes would sign either or both.

Staal, it's a pipe dream to see him traded. He will be here next season captaining the team.
Cward or khabby has a good chance of being gone with cward being the better choice. Khabby's time to move was preseason.

As for the rest of the team, with the exception of the young core, they could be traded, like for like, or maybe a last round draft choice.

IMHO the canes only out is to draft out, make smart draft choices the next 2 or 2 drafts and build from that.

dwind said:

IMHO the canes only out is to draft out, make smart draft choices the next 2 or 2 drafts and build from that.

Click to expand...

If you're right ... and I strongly feel that you aren't (shocker, I know) ... then there will be nobody to notice when they move, because that will take a minimum of 4 years to show serious fruit and there will be next to nobody in the seats by then.

Seriously. Not hyping it up. Without some sort of upward tick in terms of either better short term performance or a young stable of promising players, this market has sent a loud message that they're just not going to buy tickets.

JB, I don't really see any alternatives. I don't see trades where the canes will be bringing in serviceable players that will lead them to the playoffs. The cheaper players will either bring in low draft choices or a like player, nothing more. and I don't really see RF trading Staal the elder. I do see an excuse on the horizon about staal the warrior playing through much pain. I also see the excuse of the backup goaltender not winning any games. Cward may get traded, but I'm not sure what the return will be or who will be the starting goalie next season if he is traded. My crystal ball says RF plays the same game JR. did, looking for players in the scrap heap hoping to pick a winner. He also has to bet heavy on the draft.
I just don't see any other options.

I bet Skinner is traded before Staal.

TheBigKahuna said:

I bet Skinner is traded before Staal.

Click to expand...

God, I hope not.