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2016-2017 Defense

JamesNorthern

JamesNorthern

Active member
Liked to start a thread focusing on our defense, or lack thereof *snicker*

Assuming we do go ahead and draft the third ranked overal player in Noah Hanifin, this puts the team in a good position albeit still dreadfully thin in depth. Let's face it, only time will tell if the likes of H. Fleury and Roland McKeown will make it to the parent club.

That being said, nice to contemplate the team potentially turning it around and having better fortunes on D.

How good is Roland McKeown? Was there a reason the Kings gave him up other than to get a quality defenseman in Sekera in return? (to help them try, unsuccessfully as it turned out, to make the playoffs) If he is decent, any idea on projections of when to expect him at the NHL level? I have read that the guy comes with lots of character, leader type, fairly competitive too.

Otherwise, nothing set in stone for any of those players futur's with us. In the meantime... the offseason free agent period is shaping up to be pretty good with some very attractive defenseman going UFA. Said to be thin for forwards, but good for defenseman. I can't see us breaking the bank for the most sought after, but are there any, hell ONE defenseman in the coming crop of available free agents that we could potentially take a stab at and land?
Francois Beauchemin
Paul Martin
Cody Franson
Mike Green
Here's a recent list:
http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2014/11/25/2015-nhl-free-agents-unrestricted-defensemen/
Discuss
 
At this point its hard to read exactly what the Canes have in mind here for the next season or 2. Certainly we have giant holes at defense that need to be addressed, and if we do end up drafting Hanifin or another DMan we will have 3 guys (4 if you believe in Pesce) who potentially are the long term solutions on our blueline. But they will all be years away still.

What happens with the forwards might give us a clue on the plan. If we are just going to try to tread water this season while we continue to grow our kids and wait for them to be ready then we probably shouldn't be spending a whole lot of money on higher priced FA DMen at this point in time. So the high end guys I would expect us to completely avoid. I would expect the Canes to look at bargain vets, similar to Ron Hainsey.

We have to sign or acquire at least 2 NHL DMen this offseason to join Faulk, Liles, Hainsey, and Ryan Murphy (maybe 3 NHL DMen). That assumes of course that the Canes are not going to leave a spot open for our kids to fight for and earn. By kids I'm talking guys like Biega and Lowe and not Fleury, McKeown, Pesce, Carrick, maybe Hanifin. The Canes have indicated that they are going to proceed at a measured pace with our DMen, which is the right thing to do. Then you have Jordan (RFA) and Bellemore (UFA) who we could recycle.

What the Canes actually do here with the forwards and DMen should be a fair indicator of the short and maybe long term plan. I would just be guessing at this point, but I expect the plan for this next season won't involve anything but low end UFA signings on D just to fill the roster while we wait for our young blueline to get some age/size so we can build what will hopefully be a winner in, say, 2017-2018. Maybe Biega or Lowe step up and play meaningful NHL minutes this year. Maybe even Trevor Carrick or Brett Pesce. But it would be pretty reckless for the Canes to leave blueline NHL roster spots open for these kids to step up. You have to field some sort of NHL blueline unless you are declaring a race to the bottom and open season on whoever is unlucky enough to be our goalies this year.

As for how good McKeown is, he was the 2nd overall pick in the OHL draft back in the day but was the 12th DMan drafted in the 2014 draft. However, the 2nd round seems to be a common place for great NHL DMen to emerge. I get the sense that McKeown is pretty good at everything but not great at anything at this stage of his development. Certainly the Canes should expect him to develop into an NHL DMan, but how good he might be will be a mystery for a while. The knock on him before the 2014 draft was he as not physical enough and not big enough to be an elite NHL prospect. But all the writeups I saw had him being a solid 2 way DMan. Again not elite at any skill but a good solid package of 2 ways skills.
 
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cmaleski2 said:
At this point its hard to read exactly what the Canes have in mind here for the next season or 2. Certainly we have giant holes at defense that need to be addressed, and if we do end up drafting Hanifin or another DMan we will have 3 guys (4 if you believe in Pesce) who potentially are the long term solutions on our blueline. But they will all be years away still.

What happens with the forwards might give us a clue on the plan. If we are just going to try to tread water this season while we continue to grow our kids and wait for them to be ready then we probably shouldn't be spending a whole lot of money on higher priced FA DMen at this point in time. So the high end guys I would expect us to completely avoid. I would expect the Canes to look at bargain vets, similar to Ron Hainsey.

We have to sign or acquire at least 2 NHL DMen this offseason to join Faulk, Liles, Hainsey, and Ryan Murphy (maybe 3 NHL DMen). That assumes of course that the Canes are not going to leave a spot open for our kids to fight for and earn. By kids I'm talking guys like Biega and Lowe and not Fleury, McKeown, Pesce, Carrick, maybe Hanifin. The Canes have indicated that they are going to proceed at a measured pace with our DMen, which is the right thing to do. Then you have Jordan (RFA) and Bellemore (UFA) who we could recycle.

What the Canes actually do here with the forwards and DMen should be a fair indicator of the short and maybe long term plan. I would just be guessing at this point, but I expect the plan for this next season won't involve anything but low end UFA signings on D just to fill the roster while we wait for our young blueline to get some age/size so we can build what will hopefully be a winner in, say, 2017-2018. Maybe Biega or Lowe step up and play meaningful NHL minutes this year. Maybe even Trevor Carrick or Brett Pesce. But it would be pretty reckless for the Canes to leave blueline NHL roster spots open for these kids to step up. You have to field some sort of NHL blueline unless you are declaring a race to the bottom and open season on whoever is unlucky enough to be our goalies this year.

As for how good McKeown is, he was the 2nd overall pick in the OHL draft back in the day but was the 12th DMan drafted in the 2014 draft. However, the 2nd round seems to be a common place for great NHL DMen to emerge. I get the sense that McKeown is pretty good at everything but not great at anything at this stage of his development. Certainly the Canes should expect him to develop into an NHL DMan, but how good he might be will be a mystery for a while. The knock on him before the 2014 draft was he as not physical enough and not big enough to be an elite NHL prospect. But all the writeups I saw had him being a solid 2 way DMan. Again not elite at any skill but a good solid package of 2 ways skills.
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Well good points and a good breakdown of where we stand. I think you're assment is pretty spot on. Honestly, what I still see lacking in the team is size, physicality and grit. If we are going to bridge over a season or two with focused development, then yeah - no sense in breaking the bank but - let's go out and get at least TWO dependable stay at home, in your face defenseman that are not elite status commanding top dollar. Can we afford a couple of defenders at same 3-4.5 million a pop? I think that is what it will cost us and seems to be fair market for what we can afford... are there any potential suitors in the pending UFA defense crop at that price tag?
 
JamesNorthern said:
Well good points and a good breakdown of where we stand. I think you're assment is pretty spot on. Honestly, what I still see lacking in the team is size, physicality and grit. If we are going to bridge over a season or two with focused development, then yeah - no sense in breaking the bank but - let's go out and get at least TWO dependable stay at home, in your face defenseman that are not elite status commanding top dollar. Can we afford a couple of defenders at same 3-4.5 million a pop? I think that is what it will cost us and seems to be fair market for what we can afford... are there any potential suitors in the pending UFA defense crop at that price tag?
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I don't think we can do anything of that sort without a trade. Right now, we're at $56 million for 9 forwards, 4 dmen, 2 goalies and 2 retained salaries. The cap is going to be right around $70 million. So 2 defenders in that range will take us to $62-65 million and we'll still be short 4 forwards and at least 1 dman (that also means that Liles and Murphy are in the lineup every night). Figure Dwyer and Nestrasil for 2 of the forward spots, but they should be about $1.8-2 million total. The 7th dman (and 8th if they want to go there), whether it's Bellemore, Jordan or TBD should be about $750K max, each. Now we're at $68.5 million on the high side and 2 forwards short. If Fleury makes the team, his cap hit will be about $1.2 million, but that eats up most of the allocation for the 7th and 8th dman.
 
Ahh... the payroll. That's a whole other question...are we going to INCREASE payroll closer to that $70 million cap or are we going to stay flat or even reduce payroll a little bit? I would guess at least for this next season that Ronnie and PK are not going to be looking to spend more money than we did last year. So something has to give there. You are correct andy, either we have to trade some salary away if we are going to be able to add some higher priced DMen or not sign any higher priced Dmen....
 
cmaleski2 said:
Ahh... the payroll. That's a whole other question...are we going to INCREASE payroll closer to that $70 million cap or are we going to stay flat or even reduce payroll a little bit? I would guess at least for this next season that Ronnie and PK are not going to be looking to spend more money than we did last year. So something has to give there. You are correct andy, either we have to trade some salary away if we are going to be able to add some higher priced DMen or not sign any higher priced Dmen....
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Or...the buyout clock is ticking...
 
I can't get a read on Francis on this subject at ALL.

My best guess is that we'll try and cobble something together on the cheap to get from the horrific present to a hopefully brighter future ... in the persons of our young D prospects, none of whom have played any real pro hockey. That would mean you can go ahead and forget about free agents of any real note. We MIGHT see a move to bring in an older, cheaper guy (Regher?) on a 1 or 2 year deal in hopes he stays healthy enough to provide some modicum of actual help. I also think we'll continue to troll the depth of Europe and other rosters to see if we can find a value move or two. I honestly think big changes are likely going to wait ... unless you can cobble together a trade featuring one of our over-paid forwards. Of whom there are many, and thus too many variables to really contemplate.

Put it this way ... if I could trade Eric Staal for a return that included a first pairing D-man, even an expensive one, I'd do it so quick it would make you head spin.
 
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dwind said:
Staal for Dion?
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I am not a fan of Phaneuf. At all.
Straight up? I'd do that trade in a heartbeat though. Hmmm, maybe not straight up... but I can't see us getting a 1st rounder thrown in as well. Maybe a good prospect. Maybe a 2nd round pick.

Offer em Staal and our 1st from LA in 2016 for Phaneuf and their 24th overall pick - yes, I'd do that one. It is a pretty fair trade that is of advantage to us only because we get that 1st overall this year instead of last year and the Kings aren't that likely to tank next season so chances are the pick will be around the slot.
 
No advantage to the Leafs. But they have bigger pockets and probably can afford to wait longer on a rebuild (or have the resources to turn it aronud faster) than us.
 
If one of Hanifin or Provorov are drafted in the 5 spot by the Canes, I will predict one of those two will find their way onto the Canes starting 6 on D this Fall. That leaves still two open spots to fill this summer if you bring back only Faulk, Hainsey, Liles and Murphy and keep 7 defensemen on the roster all season. It should not be that difficult to fill one of those open spots from the UFA pile and fill the other spot in a trade that involves a draft pick or a roster player like Riley Nash or dare I say Jeff Skinner.

Young players like Fleury, Pesce, Biega, Lowe and Carrick should all be developing in Charlotte with perhaps one or two of them getting the call if needed when injuries occur to the Canes starting 7.

Hopefully we part ways with Hillen, Bellemore and Jordan for good this summer.
 
Agreed. Plus, if you're thinking of slotting a fresh draftee into the top 6, you're probably going to go ahead and roll the dice on either Fleury or McKeown to round out the set. You may as well let two of them start percolating at the same time. Our D's going to suck with or without them and they've got to start learning the big boy game sometime.

And I've said it a thousand times at this point, but I'd move Murphy for the best prospect or highest draft pick I could get for the guy ... like right freaking now. I think his "promise" would still generate something decent in return, IF you don't wait for him to continue to prove himself too defensively challenged to play in the NHL. And personally, I'd bring Hillen back if he's game for it. Decent utility guy, won't cost too much and handles himself pretty well in all situations. He's a Jay Harrison type, but that's an OK thing when you're looking at playing some kids.
 
jeffbear said:
Agreed. Plus, if you're thinking of slotting a fresh draftee into the top 6, you're probably going to go ahead and roll the dice on either Fleury or McKeown to round out the set. You may as well let two of them start percolating at the same time. Our D's going to suck with or without them and they've got to start learning the big boy game sometime.

And I've said it a thousand times at this point, but I'd move Murphy for the best prospect or highest draft pick I could get for the guy ... like right freaking now. I think his "promise" would still generate something decent in return, IF you don't wait for him to continue to prove himself too defensively challenged to play in the NHL. And personally, I'd bring Hillen back if he's game for it. Decent utility guy, won't cost too much and handles himself pretty well in all situations. He's a Jay Harrison type, but that's an OK thing when you're looking at playing some kids.
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I actually agree with your thought process / idea on if we draft either Hanifin or Provorov to start em early and in so doing also drop in one of (or hell even both of) Fleury and McKeown.
Honestly can't be much worse than what we've seen and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if we quickly saw decent gains / improvements overall on D.
 
JamesNorthern said:
I actually agree with your thought process / idea on if we draft either Hanifin or Provorov to start em early and in so doing also drop in one of (or hell even both of) Fleury and McKeown.
Honestly can't be much worse than what we've seen and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if we quickly saw decent gains / improvements overall on D.
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Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones both stepped right into a regular NHL roster spot after being drafted and both Hanifin and Proforov are in that same stratosphere of top flight talents that could do it too! If you paired one of these kids with a vet like Hainsey they would be ok. If Murphy was moved via trade then why not try Fleury or McKeown as well if your team is going to struggle anyhow...
 
Throw them all to the wolves if we get Hanifin?

Hainsey-Faulk
Hanifin-Vet DMan X
Fleury-McKewon
Liles? Murphy traded?

Hainsey-Faulk
Hanifin-Liles (on off side)
Fleury-Murphy?

Hainsey-Faulk
Hanifin-Vet DMan X
Liles-McKewon
Murphy at #7 Dman or traded?

Hainsey-Faulk
Hanifin-VeT DMan X
Fleury-Liles (on off side)
Murphy at#7 Dman or traded?

I mean, you COULD go all out and throw a couple of kids into the fire, but that's a pretty scary thing to do. Certainly saves some money but at the expense of burning an entry level year for Fleury or McKeown when they are going to be awfully green.

I do think its entirely possible that McKewon OR Fleury breaks camp with the Canes and plays a handful of NHL games before being sent back to juniors. If we draft Hanifin its entirely possible he goes right into the NHL lineup. 2 of those 3 playing out the full year in the NHL? That would be exciting, frustrating, and at some points awful. I do agree with JB...if you are going to start inserting kids on the blueline early then you almost have to get rid of Ryan Murphy unless you are absolutely determined to lose a lot of hockey games (which is not a terrible thing to have happen next year, we are likely going to be losing a lot of games regardless of kids or no kids on the blueline).
 
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cmaleski2 said:
I do think its entirely possible that McKewon OR Fleury breaks camp with the Canes and plays a handful of NHL games before being sent back to juniors. If we draft Hanifin its entirely possible he goes right into the NHL lineup. 2 of those 3 playing out the full year in the NHL? That would be exciting, frustrating, and at some points awful. I do agree with JB...if you are going to start inserting kids on the blueline early then you almost have to get rid of Ryan Murphy unless you are absolutely determined to lose a lot of hockey games (which is not a terrible thing to have happen next year, we are likely going to be losing a lot of games regardless of kids or no kids on the blueline).
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Just curious, why do you think Hanifin could go right into the lineup but Fleury/McKeown couldn't? Eligibility, because if Hanifan can't cut it, we can send him to Charlotte?
 
Hanifin is easier to keep around because he will be AHL eligible and you are burning a year of his entry deal regardless. I'm also factoring in his size relative to Fleury and McKeown and the fact that he is so highly regarded. You are right it could just as easily be Fleury or McKeown and not Hanifin depending on how they all look.
 
andyt said:
Just curious, why do you think Hanifin could go right into the lineup but Fleury/McKeown couldn't? Eligibility, because if Hanifan can't cut it, we can send him to Charlotte?
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I was under the impression that McKeown has to make the Canes or he has to be returned to junior in Kingston...is that correct? Does the same apply to Fleury or is he a year older?

Hanifin and Provorov have both been forecasted by a ton of NHL Scouts that they both are pretty much NHL ready with their skill set and hockey sense, so I think either of those two would make a paper thin Canes defense core this Fall.
 
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