FI Leafs Top Prospect Project - #3 Discussion Thread

Okay kids, have at it.


I think Kapanen is head and shoulders a better prospect than Brown or Bracco due to a relatively high floor that should at worst see him become a solid 2 way forward with some skill, and on the high end a 1st line winger. It's been awesome to watch Brown turn into a bonafide prospect out of nowhere, but unless his skating improves, I don't see this offensive wave carrying in to the Show.

Based on draft order alone I would guess management might consider Travis Dermott in the conversation. But I think it'll take another year for him to prove himself.

A lot of people have attributed his success to McDavid, but perhaps in a way playing with McDavid has caused people to underrate Travis. We'll see.

All time USNTDP Scoring:
1. Phil Kessel - 73 gp, 72 gls, 122 pts, 1.67 ppg
2. Austin Matthews - 104 gp, 79 gls, 166 pts, 1.60 ppg
3. Patrick Kane - 66 gp, 51 gls, 101 pts, 1.53 ppg
4. Jeremy Bracco - 119 gp, 46 gls, 168 pts, 1.41 ppg
5. Clayton Keller - 61 gp, 34 gls, 82 pts, 1.34 ppg
6. Jack Eichel - 111 gp, 67 gls, 139 pts, 1.25 ppg

All time U18 seasons USNTDP:
1. Austin Matthews - 60 gp, 55 gls, 116 pts, 1.93 ppg
2. Phil Kessel, 41 gp, 41 gls, 73 pts, 1.78 ppg
3. Jack Eichel, 53 gp, 38 gls, 87 pts, 1.64 ppg
4. Patrick Kane - 43 gp, 35 gls, 68 pts, 1.58 ppg
5. Sonny Milano - 58 gp, 29 gls, 86 pts, 1.48 ppg
6. Matthew Tkachuk - 65 gp, 38 gls, 96 pts, 1.48 ppg
7. Jeremy Bracco - 65 gp, 30 gls, 94 pts, 1.45 ppg
8. James Van Riemsdyk - 30 gp, 20 gls, 38 pts, 1.27 ppg

U18
Jeremy Bracco - 2014-15 - 7 gp, 3 gls, 13 pts
Kasperi Kapenen - 2012-13 - 7 gp, 5 gls, 8 pts
Kasperi Kapanen - 2013-14 - 5 gp, 1 gl, 2 pts

Top U18 seasons in Finland since 2010
1. Mikael Granlund - 43 gp, 13 gls, 40 pts, 0.93 ppg
2. Aleksander Barkov - 53 gp, 21 gls, 48 pts, 0.91 ppg
3. Artturi Lehkonen - 45 gp, 14 gls, 30 pts, 0.67 ppg
4. Joel Armia - 48 gp, 18 gls, 29 pts, 0.60 ppg
5. Jesse Puljujarvi - 21 gl, 4 gls, 11 pts, 0.52 ppg
6. Teuvo Teraveinen - 40 gp, 11 gls, 18 pts, 0.45 ppg
7. Juuso Ikonene - 20 gp, 4 gls, 9 pts, 0.45 ppg
8. Sebastien Aho - 27 gp, 4 gls, 11 pts, 0.41 ppg
9. Kasperi Kapanen - 47 gp, 7 gls, 14 pts, 0.30 ppg

Top U19 seasons in Finland since 2010
1. Teemu Pulkinen - 55 gl, 18 gls, 54 pts, 0.98 ppg
2. Mikael Granlund - 39 gp, 8 gls, 36 pts, 0.92 ppg
3. Markus Granlund - 47 gp, 15 gls, 34 pts, 0.72 ppg
4. Joel Armia - 54 gp, 18 gls, 38 pts, 0.70 ppg
5. Artturi Lehkonen - 33gp, 7 gls, 20 pts, 0.61 ppg
6. Juuso Ikonen - 17 gp, 4 gls, 10 pts, 0.59 ppg
7. Sami Vatanen - 55 gp, 7 gls, 30 pts, 0.55 pgg
8. Mikka Salomaki - 40 gp, 12 gls, 21 pts, 0.53 ppg
9. Joonas Donskoi - 52 gp, 16 gls, 27 pts, 0.52 ppg
10. Kasperi Kapenen - 41 gp, 11 gls, 21 pts, 0.51 ppg

IMO, Bracco is the most talented player at this point by quite a bit. If both guys were in the 2015 draft I would have taken Bracco before Kapenen. Kapenen has the tools to be a solid NHLer, but to this point in his career the offensive game hasn't developed much. Bracco on the other hand is a high end talent. The only thing holding him back is size, which is an argument I don't really believe in. The only guys who produced at his level and didn't become NHL stars are prospects that haven't made it/been drafted yet.

For me #3 is Bracco.

Something that gets overlooked when Kapanen's Liiga numbers get brought up is just how trash his KalPa team was offensively last year. Kapanen was 2nd on the team in PPG, while playing ~16mpg...clearly under utilized and on a team that was trash offensively.

He didn't have the benefit of playing with skilled Liiga veterans, playing for a very defensive minded club.

Sure, but not only do you not have to make excuses for Bracco's production, its right up there with the best players to come out of the US over the last decade. All high first round picks. He's a really good hockey player.

Kapenen just doesn't measure up in terms of production. And thats not a knock on him, or his potential. He's a great prospect, but the numbers Bracco put up are insane.

If Bracco was 6'1", `180 lbs, where do you think he gets drafted?

According to the Penguins Kapanen almost made the team out of camp last year. Would be a cool turn of events to see him steal a spot at camp.

Nylander - Kadri - Kapanen could form an interesting line. Compare it to the Tampa triplets line of Palat - Johnson - Kucherov in terms of some young players with a ton of skill.

JVR - Bozak - Lupul
Nylander - Kadri - Kapanen

I know its a long shot but dammit i want us to finally have some good fortune with our prospects. When is the last time we had a 20 year old score 25+ goals?

Of course Kapanen doesn't measure up in terms of production....because he was played in a 3rd line role (despite being 2nd in PPG) on one of the worst offensive teams in Finland. There's a lot more to tracking statistical progress than just raw totals, you know this.

Had Kapanen posted a ~.75 ppg as he likely would have in a 1st line role with any sort of talent around him, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Bracco plays on the most ridiculous team in a kid's league...not that the production isn't impressive, he can only score against who he plays against, but when you have a combination of quality production on a low scoring team in a low scoring league mixed with his tool profile, I see a similar ceiling with a higher floor.

Aberdeen said:

If Bracco was 6'1", `180 lbs, where do you think he gets drafted?

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With his skating still being an issue, probably about where he was pegged as going pre draft, low 20's. He would have gone roughly where his USHL/NTDP contemporaries, Connor, Roslovic, & White went imo.

Aberdeen said:

If Bracco was 6'1", `180 lbs, where do you think he gets drafted?

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With that production, 10 to 20 range, if not top 10.

MindzEye said:

Of course Kapanen doesn't measure up in terms of production....because he was played in a 3rd line role (despite being 2nd in PPG) on one of the worst offensive teams in Finland. There's a lot more to tracking statistical progress than just raw totals, you know this.

Had Kapanen posted a ~.75 ppg as he likely would have in a 1st line role with any sort of talent around him, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Bracco plays on the most ridiculous team in a kid's league...not that the production isn't impressive, he can only score against who he plays against, but when you have a combination of quality production on a low scoring team in a low scoring league mixed with his tool profile, I see a similar ceiling with a higher floor.

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Sure, but top end prospects have been able to carve out that kind of role on good Finish teams. The fact that Kapenen couldn't earn a bigger role on a terrible team isn't just an excuse for his production, but a question mark.

IMO the ceiling isn't even close. You have one guy who produced with or near the best players to come out of that league at the same age, and the other not even close to guys like Barkov and Granlund. I don't see Kapanen as having first line upside from an offensive perspective. His value is in his all around play.

Kapanen is certainly a much safer prospect. With his speed, skill and hockey IQ he will be a reliable NHLer. But the offensive upside is a question mark at this point. That's where Bracco gets the edge from me. When judging prospects I take elite production before anything else. It is rarer to find than safe, solid players. Kind of surprised to see you of all people disagree with those kind of numbers.

leafman101 said:

Sure, but top end prospects have been able to carve out that kind of role on good Finish teams. The fact that Kapenen couldn't earn a bigger role on a terrible team isn't just an excuse for his production, but a question mark.

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Except KalPa wasn't terrible at all, they just lacked offensive talent, so did what every other team in the history of hockey that lacked goal scoring does, park the ****ing bus....and it got them to the playoffs. This is the difference between playing in a men's professional league and playing in a kids league while you develop, sometimes your development as a prospect doesn't come first and you play the way coach tells you to play.

So yeah, I'm going to go ahead and assume that you're just stat line scouting here, which I think is valuable in a lot of cases but without context can be problematic.

IMO the ceiling isn't even close. You have one guy who produced with or near the best players to come out of that league at the same age

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Except those kids that are above Bracco, did that at 16 yrs old...It's flat out misleading to post the statistics the way you did. Bracco played his draft + 0 season on the under 18 NTDP team...Kessel, Mathews, & Kane all played (or will play) elsewhere (NCAA, Swiss League, & OHL respectively). So yeah, Bracco scored as well as a 17 yr old as a bunch of top US prospects played as 16 yr olds. So basically this point is factually incorrect.

and the other not even close to guys like Barkov and Granlund.

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Barkov was a #2 pick for a reason (and never played D + 1 in Liiga, we played in the Show). Granlund was considered a top 3 prospect for a reason. Not scoring at their level isn't a knock on Kapanen, not in a conversation concerning Bracco it isn't.

I don't see Kapanen as having first line upside from an offensive perspective. His value is in his all around play.

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.5 ppg in Finland in D + 1 is nothing to knock his offensive upside for. Here's the top NHL'ers over the past few years with a Finnish league pedigree and their D + 1 season PPG

Jussi Jokinen - .30ppg
Mikko Koivu - .15ppg
Mikael Granlund - .92ppg
Filppula - .37ppg


So what does this show us? That non contextualized looks at Liiga scoring for young players is silly.

Kapanen is certainly a much safer prospect. With his speed, skill and hockey IQ he will be a reliable NHLer. But the offensive upside is a question mark at this point. That's where Bracco gets the edge from me.

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Well yes, if I was interpreting the statistics the way you were (incorrectly), I can definitely see how you reach this conclusion. But 1) Bracco's numbers as a 17 yr old mean little in comparison to elite prospects numbers in the same league as 16 yr olds & 2) Kapanen's numbers in Finland simply aren't what you're trying to frame them as.

Kind of surprised to see you of all people disagree with those kind of numbers.

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Asked and answered.

I think ME has me convinced. JCY or Irish (or other prospectors) have any thoughts?

I think I recall reading that the biggest knock on Kapanen's game is his defensive zone work.

If that's the case, I don't know that we're looking for overall game here. Seems more like an offense play.

While Bracco being a year older obviously helps him, it is worth noting that there are no other 17 year olds on that list. It's a real good group of prospects.

Tough to get a real reading on him, though. It might just indicate that if he were in the O, he'd be a comparable prospect to, say Kapanen. Or, maybe not even that

Finnish League is a hard league to play in...especially for a teenager. I'm not wild about the stats arguments with foreign leagues, particularly given how much more tightly most of them call secondary assists. He's also such an effortless skater. It's a joy to watch

Bracco has impressive stats and I am over the moon that we have him in the prospect pool but Bracco wasn't playing in leagues approaching what Kapanen played in last year.

I also don't like argument about "if so-and-so was X size...", if my uncle had tits he'd be my aunty. We evaluate the prospects we have, not the ones we might some day have or like to have.

Kapanen, then Bracco. Both above Brown.

Courtesy of theprojectionproject,com:

Comparables Success Rate
Kapanen
Bust: 231 (85%)
NHL Player: 42 (15%)
Elite: 0
First: 6
Second: 7
Third: 7
Fourth: 13
Depth: 9

Bracco
Bust: 31 (36%)
NHL Player: 56 (64%)
Elite: 15
First: 14
Second: 11
Third: 11
Fourth: 5
Depth: 0

mbow30 said:

While Bracco being a year older obviously helps him, it is worth noting that there are no other 17 year olds on that list. It's a real good group of prospects.

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Because the best American prospects take off for the NCAA or CHL and don't often get drafted out of the USHL/NTDP. Shit, just look at a very US heavy top 10 in this year's entry draft. Eichel (NCAA), Hanifin (NCAA), Werenski (NCAA). The best American 17 yr olds are elsewhere by that age. Not to shit on Bracco, who I think is a good prospect (and I have ranked 5th personally) with legit top 6 upside if his skating improves, but the best D + 0 American prospects are gone by the age at which he was dominant offensively.

Tough to get a real reading on him, though.

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Agreed, I'm not high on prospects out of the USHL partially for this reason. Really, really hard to project the offensive totals out of that league.

NHL equivalency scoring
Kapanen
Draft -1: 8
Draft: 7

Bracco
Draft -1: 29
Draft: 30


Comparables by Draft PositionB]
Kapanen
Round 1: 23
Round 2: 37
Round 3: 45
Round 4: 55
Round 5: 58
Round 6: 62
Round 7: 63

Bracco
Round 1: 73
Round 2: 24
Round 3: 14
Round 4: 6
Round 5: 2
Round 6: 3
Round 7: 2

MindzEye said:

Because the best American prospects take off for the NCAA or CHL and don't often get drafted out of the USHL/NTDP. Shit, just look at a very US heavy top 10 in this year's entry draft. Eichel (NCAA), Hanifin (NCAA), Werenski (NCAA). The best American 17 yr olds are elsewhere by that age. Not to shit on Bracco, who I think is a good prospect (and I have ranked 5th personally) with legit top 6 upside if his skating improves, but the best D + 0 American prospects are gone by the age at which he was dominant offensively.

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well, it suggests that maybe he should have been in ncaa or chl, and was overlooked there, too. his elite numbers might not mean he is a similar caliber prospect to the likes of kessel and kane. but they might suggest that he's just a step below them.