FI Leafs Top Prospect Project - #4 Poll Thread
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
hockeylover
Well-known member
How come only like 8 people said who they voted for/why?
mbow30
Spudmeister Supreme
yup. the list of red tilson trophy winners (ohl mvp) is filled with players like brown who had dynamite jr careers and became productive ahl'ers, but lacked the size and skating to crack the nhl.
didn't vote but leafman sold me on bracco. his numbers last year were outstanding.
Montana
Champion
If you believe Bracco > Brown, you should definitely vote.....as Browns hours away from taking the #4 slot.
Anyone else who has an informed opinion and hasn't voted for that matter, should as well. More votes the better, regardless of the end results.
mbow30
Spudmeister Supreme
done. to me, if brown had a big year in his post draft year i'd be more inclined to give him an edge. but his post draft season, while solid, was not spectacular (below ME's magic 1.2 ppg milestone). and when i watched him play this year, though I saw a pretty heady player who sees the ice well and has hands... he's slow and relatively easy to separate from the puck.
i just don't see his game translating into the nhl.
bracco's small, too, but his numbers are off the charts. and it isn't like there are a bunch of other overagers who didn't go the ohl route who have posted similar production (like, say, the list of OHL mvps).
i just don't see his game translating into the nhl.
bracco's small, too, but his numbers are off the charts. and it isn't like there are a bunch of other overagers who didn't go the ohl route who have posted similar production (like, say, the list of OHL mvps).
hockeylover
Well-known member
And the previous AHL rookie scoring leaders:
Curtis McKenzie
Ryan Spooner
Cory Conacher
Luke Adam
Tyler Ennis
Tim Kennedy
Teddy Purcell
Brett Sterling
Patrick O'Sullivan
Meh.
Curtis McKenzie
Ryan Spooner
Cory Conacher
Luke Adam
Tyler Ennis
Tim Kennedy
Teddy Purcell
Brett Sterling
Patrick O'Sullivan
Meh.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I'm curious then as to why Brown excelled more than any other first year player in the AHL, given your belief that he doesn't have what it takes for the NHL.
Just because he's not the fastest guy on the ice? Or because he's still got a 20 year old's physique?
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
That's a bad list, but by that reasoning, we should consider it a negative that he led all rookies in scoring?
mbow30
Spudmeister Supreme
the ahl is a much slower league than the nhl. most of theall time great ahl'ers are guys who lacked size and high end foot speed, so couldn't hack it in the nhl.
the fact that a player is a good ahl'er, whether he became a good ahl player at 20 or 25, isn't evidence that he will be able to make it to the nhl. lots of good ahl'ers have been unable to do it.
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mbow30
Spudmeister Supreme
no.
but it should temper excitement about him being a shoe-in to make the nhl. it's still a big hill for him to climb.
hockeylover
Well-known member
You said you can't see an OHL MVP and a rookie AHL scoring leader not being successful so I just posted one of the lists.
We should be pleased with these numbers out of Connor Brown but I'm just trying to figure out context for what the numbers actually mean.
LeafGm
Well-known member
The problem with this list is that includes a bunch of guys who played their rookie season in the AHL at 22/23 years of age after graduating from college hockey. If you want to compare apples to apples, let's reduce that list down to the guys who were 20 years old in their rookie season. And for an even better comparison, let's list their PPG in both their rookie AHL season, and their last season of junior hockey before jumping to the pro's.
Rookie AHL season (at 20 years of age):
Patrick O'Sullivan - 1.19 PPG
Luke Adam - 1.09 PPG
Ryan Spooner - 0.97 PPG
Tyler Ennis - 0.94 PPG
Connor Brown - 0.80 PPG
Okay, so, still not necessarily the most flattering picture for Brown. Especially since Ennis is the only guy on that list who's really turned into a legit "better than replacement level" NHL player. One thing I think Brown does have going for him is that he played for a very young Marlies team that was weak offensively for most of the year, and he led his team in scoring. By a wide margin, too. With the exception of Ryan Spooner, every other player on that list had a lot more offensive support than Brown did, and none of them led their team in scoring.
Final amateur season (at 19 years of age)
Connor Brown - 1.88 PPG (OHL)
Luke Adam - 1.60 PPG (QMJHL)
Patrick O'Sullivan - 1.58 PPG (OHL)
Tyler Ennis - 1.39 PPG (WHL)
Ryan Spooner - 1.16 PPG (OHL)
Now this, obviously, is where Brown's separated himself from the pack quite a bit. And this is where your opinion of him as a prospect comes down to how much you think the "McDavid factor" played in to his scoring numbers that year (even though they were not linemates), and how much weight you're willing to give to the fact that Brown was the unquestioned offensive leader (in his rookie year) on a team that didn't have a whole lot of other good offensive weapons to put out there with him.
Another tricky variable is: how many other teams would have just called up a player in Brown's situation this year, instead of determining before the season started that he'd be playing the whole year in the AHL no matter what?
hockeylover
Well-known member
We already did that though. Mindzeye did. And it was a lot of hit and miss.
Edit: sorry shoulda kept reading, on my phone. Thanks for the legwork. I feel good about my Bracco vote.
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number17
Mod Squad
Very good and very valid points. I guess it will be up to Brown to prove the critics wrong ... but yes, there is a reason why he was picked in the 6th round, and he does lack the speed - both skating speed, and also ability to do things with the puck at a high speed - to take things to the next level in the NHL. I'd love to see Brown prove the nay-sayers wrong though.
LeafGm
Well-known member
I voted Brown, but after going through the numbers and comparables, I think I'd have to change my vote and rank him behind Bracco.
However, what's the argument for Bracco being ranked ahead of Andreas Johnson? Johnson's production relative to his age group puts him in some pretty good company too, doesn't it?
However, what's the argument for Bracco being ranked ahead of Andreas Johnson? Johnson's production relative to his age group puts him in some pretty good company too, doesn't it?