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Habs News & Notes: 2019 Offseason

Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

Krustchev said:
You don't think we'll be a lottery team next season too? I do.
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by lottery you mean miss the playoffs?

i dont think we will be bottom 5 just because i expect Price to return to normal next season
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

worm said:
by lottery you mean miss the playoffs?

i dont think we will be bottom 5 just because i expect Price to return to normal next season
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Why do you argue against the advanced stats that say Price will not return to normal next season?
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

Altair said:
Why do you argue against the advanced stats that say Price will not return to normal next season?
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Because I do not think the advance stats are predictive. Why do you assume he won't save more high danger shots next year?
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

worm said:
Because I do not think the advance stats are predictive. Why do you assume he won't save more high danger shots next year?
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Because the reason he was letting in so many high danger shots in the first place will not be addressed.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

Habspatrol said:
Well... there's no reason to believe that he'll repeat his worst season of his career.
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The only statistical category where price dropped significantly was in High Danger save percentage. That's it. His low danger and medium danger save percentage were right in line with his career average, both for 5 on 5 and shorthanded. So not much room for improvement there.

So unless the defense can stop giving up Prime high danger chances against, don't count on Price bouncing back.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

Altair said:
The only statistical category where price dropped significantly was in High Danger save percentage. That's it. His low danger and medium danger save percentage were right in line with his career average, both for 5 on 5 and shorthanded. So not much room for improvement there.

So unless the defense can stop giving up Prime high danger chances against, don't count on Price bouncing back.
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So there's no reason to expect a repeat of the worst high danger sv% of his career.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

Altair said:
The only statistical category where price dropped significantly was in High Danger save percentage. That's it. His low danger and medium danger save percentage were right in line with his career average, both for 5 on 5 and shorthanded. So not much room for improvement there.

So unless the defense can stop giving up Prime high danger chances against, don't count on Price bouncing back.
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Price gave up too many goals where he had a clear view and a decent chance to prevent a goal, that should be corrected on his part. If you ask me, I think Price played the same way as he always had and was shocked that it didn't result in the same success. He didn't handle the controversy very well. The league now has a lot of players who can really shoot the puck, he's got to be more aggressive in facing the shooter. Maybe he should look at how Niemi played and learn something :) ?
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

wiseguy1 said:
Price gave up too many goals where he had a clear view and a decent chance to prevent a goal, that should be corrected on his part. If you ask me, I think Price played the same way as he always had and was shocked that it didn't result in the same success. He didn't handle the controversy very well. The league now has a lot of players who can really shoot the puck, he's got to be more aggressive in facing the shooter. Maybe he should look at how Niemi played and learn something :) ?
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price had a HDS% of .75

Niemi had a HDS% of .78

Where niemi excelled was in the LDS%, he was 98.5 , close to what price had the year he won the vezina. So what is niemi teaching Price exactly that price doesn't aready know?

Niemi: Defense sucks

Price:Yup.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

Altair said:
Because the reason he was letting in so many high danger shots in the first place will not be addressed.
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you are basing that on the assumption it is the defense and not price sucking

but even if it was defense i expect Julien to adjust the system anyway
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

Altair said:
Unless you attribute it to the new defense playing in front of him.

He didn't suddenly forget how to stop HDCA.
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also IIRC from that article on it
his other stats did decrease as well though it was a smaller percent it was probably a bigger volume

do you know where to find the raw data?
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

worm said:
you are basing that on the assumption it is the defense and not price sucking

but even if it was defense i expect Julien to adjust the system anyway
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Price has been consistent the past few years, I don't think he simply forgot how to hockey.

The defense, especially without mobile, puck moving defensemen, was very different this past season. Not well suited to todays NHL. So either price suddenly, and completely out of character, forgot how to hockey, and started letting in a lot more HDCA, or something about the defense was putting him, AND Niemi in a position that they could not stop nearly as many HDCA.

Looking at this defense this past season, I don't think it was better than last years, and I would assign them the lions share of the blame.

So yes, maybe Julien can find a way for the d-corp of misfit players to stop giving up as many breakways, odd man rushes, turnovers, and lack of transition, and if he can, give the man the Jack Adams. But If it's what I suspect, the actual players he's been given to work with on defense, then the goalies are screwed.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

Altair said:
Unless you attribute it to the new defense playing in front of him.

He didn't suddenly forget how to stop HDCA.
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But it's not just "more goals" on HDCA... it's a worse sv%. That's the great equalizer.

He may allow a lot of goals due to increased HDCA... but his HDCA sv% should trend back toward his norms.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2018 Offseason

worm said:
http://theprovince.com/sports/hocke...rice/wcm/5a5c3515-d74c-48a8-8b48-a1f62c436a29

There is the article but it is not really up to date.


It is fine if you argument is the defense sucks but that is not an advance stat argument.


But as that article stats you are really using the eye test and not advance stats to come to your conclusion.
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The stats tell us a couple of rock solid irrefutable occurrences.

Carey Price HDS% dropped significantly.

The rest of Carey Prices save percentages didn't drop much off his career norms

The defense was giving up as many HDCA as they have the years prior, a little less actually.

So from that there are two obvious conclusions as to why this happened.

1. Carey Price suddenly forgot how to stop HDCA.

2. The Defense was giving up more quality HDCA.

So maybe Carey Price forgot how. It's possible. But there is more than one goalie on the team. Lets see if the drop was universal.Niemi had a .78 HDS% Compared to prices .75

So it wasn't just Price who was struggling with the HDCA. So it's possible both goalies forgot how to stop them. But at this point the culprit starts to look more and more like the defense.
 
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