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The ****ing Offseason Thread - 2016

Oh I agree that the variables are more favorable and I am not one who's trolling that Toronto has no shot. They have a very good shot obviously, I was just curious as to the attitude that it's all but a done deal.

I have heard things from someone who was a large part of the sting organization that they believed he was coming home.
 
It's not Bergevin and Therrien. It's Molson that wants him badly. When you're dealing directly with the owner, agents salivate. Remember, it was Molson that stepped in when Bergevin was about to let Subban go to arbitration. This has been an organizational need for Montreal for decades. Molson will throw everything he can at it. I still firmly believe Montreal will not get Stamkos but I don't believe they have less of a shot than Detroit, Buffalo or NYC.

That'd be a red flag for me personally.
 
It's not Bergevin and Therrien. It's Molson that wants him badly. When you're dealing directly with the owner, agents salivate. Remember, it was Molson that stepped in when Bergevin was about to let Subban go to arbitration. This has been an organizational need for Montreal for decades. Molson will throw everything he can at it. I still firmly believe Montreal will not get Stamkos but I don't believe they have less of a shot than Detroit, Buffalo or NYC.
What does that even mean, though? What can Molson "throw" at Stamkos?

If Molson's willing to offer Stamkos more money than Timmay Murray/Terry Pegula in Buffalo, and getting the most money possible is Stamkos's priority, then great---you'll have a chance at landing him. But if going to a place where he can win is a big priority, what can Molson say to him exactly? He's not the guy Stamkos is going to be playing for on a day-to-day basis. And he's not the guy who will be doing the hands-on work of turning the Habs into a Cup contender.
 
Crosby said he'd love to play for the Habs at his draft too. Kids say these things. The twitter thing is interesting though.
I agree. But Crosby never had (and probably never will have) a chance of looking at his calendar, seeing it's only 2 more days till he becomes UFA, and he has a very real chance of choosing his childhood team over his current team. PIT will never allow that.

But to your team's credit, if Crosby is 26 or 27, and PIT has dragged their heels to a point Crosby is really gonna hit UFA, do I think the Habs have a very realistic chance of landing Crosby? All things being equal, YES I think so.
 
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As far as I can piece together stuff, it's basically this:

-His #1 choice is Tampa, but they really have no money for him. If they can come close to or match the other offers out there, he'll take that easily.
-The next choice I would have to imagine is Toronto. You have space for him both in the cap and on the team, and certainly has that hometown advantage. However, I do also feel that you have competent management that may hesitate to truly want to pay him the top dollar. You won't go as cheap as Tampa, but I think with where you are in the rebuild, getting Matthews does reduce the need for him, and the fact that he hasn't been as strong as he was before, I get the sense that you guys have sort some of internal cap on what you would pay him.
-After that, then you come in with the wildcards. Buffalo has come out and stated they're willing to back up the truck for him. Wouldn't shock me to see some other un-named teams also potentially offer a boatload of cash to entice him in.
-Then you also have who I would ironically call the "big 3": Detroit, Mtl, and NYR. None of them can really fit him in as it stands, but certainly keep coming back in the rumours and no matter how much there are parts of the negotiation that don't make a lick of sense to them, you can't really count them out.

Now, none of us really know his true motivations, but really, it may actually come down to the sell job the teams take with him, and then how much they're willing to spend. The 10.5M per year number keeps seeming like the "right" number, but you have to think that if someone is willing to offer up to 12M, that really changes the order. Then when you have this whole "sign and trade" stuff coming in as well, that also really throws a wrench into things as it opens up new options.

I do think a lot of it will truly come down to how much are teams willing to pay. If Buffalo truly offers 12M a year, or someone else comes in at that number, then I'm not sure the 10.5 from others would cut it anymore. And I think you have a lot of teams who are trying to figure out how much is it actually worth to pay to him, without completely destroying either the rest of their team or their future potential.
 
What does that even mean, though? What can Molson "throw" at Stamkos?

If Molson's willing to offer Stamkos more money than Timmay Murray/Terry Pegula in Buffalo, and getting the most money possible is Stamkos's priority, then great---you'll have a chance at landing him. But if going to a place where he can win is a big priority, what can Molson say to him exactly? He's not the guy Stamkos is going to be playing for on a day-to-day basis. And he's not the guy who will be doing the hands-on work of turning the Habs into a Cup contender.

Well, Montreal has made it far in the playoffs in recent memory. It's not a very tough argument to say that the Habs plus Stamkos would be the odds-on favourites in the East.
 
Well, Montreal has made it far in the playoffs in recent memory. It's not a very tough argument to say that the Habs plus Stamkos would be the odds-on favourites in the East.
I dunno. I'd say it's a bit tougher to make that argument after last year.

But that's unrelated to what I was asking Habsy about. So, I'll pose the question again to you: if you're Steven Stamkos, can you picture yourself sitting down with Marc Bergevin & Michel Therrien for a couple of hours, and coming away feeling confident that they're two highly competent hockey men with a credible plan in place to build a Stanley Cup contender?

And if the answer is no...then what difference can Geoff Molson make to the pitch, exactly?
 
As far as I can piece together stuff, it's basically this:

-His #1 choice is Tampa, but they really have no money for him. If they can come close to or match the other offers out there, he'll take that easily.
-The next choice I would have to imagine is Toronto. You have space for him both in the cap and on the team, and certainly has that hometown advantage. However, I do also feel that you have competent management that may hesitate to truly want to pay him the top dollar. You won't go as cheap as Tampa, but I think with where you are in the rebuild, getting Matthews does reduce the need for him, and the fact that he hasn't been as strong as he was before, I get the sense that you guys have sort some of internal cap on what you would pay him.
-After that, then you come in with the wildcards. Buffalo has come out and stated they're willing to back up the truck for him. Wouldn't shock me to see some other un-named teams also potentially offer a boatload of cash to entice him in.
-Then you also have who I would ironically call the "big 3": Detroit, Mtl, and NYR. None of them can really fit him in as it stands, but certainly keep coming back in the rumours and no matter how much there are parts of the negotiation that don't make a lick of sense to them, you can't really count them out.

Now, none of us really know his true motivations, but really, it may actually come down to the sell job the teams take with him, and then how much they're willing to spend. The 10.5M per year number keeps seeming like the "right" number, but you have to think that if someone is willing to offer up to 12M, that really changes the order. Then when you have this whole "sign and trade" stuff coming in as well, that also really throws a wrench into things as it opens up new options.

I do think a lot of it will truly come down to how much are teams willing to pay. If Buffalo truly offers 12M a year, or someone else comes in at that number, then I'm not sure the 10.5 from others would cut it anymore. And I think you have a lot of teams who are trying to figure out how much is it actually worth to pay to him, without completely destroying either the rest of their team or their future potential.
I don't necessarily disagree but i think while I have no question Stamkos' #1 preference all along was to stay with TB, once it has become 'real' to him that he may indeed be switching team I don't know if that's true anymore.

I also don't think Yzerman's strategy is to see what the market has to offer and match it. That's a pretty dumb strategy. He could have locked him up for less had he offer a more reasonable contract prior to this season, and early in the season. If you let your boy test FA water, you KNOW he will get more $$ and you'd just be wasting money (and cap space) by matching it when it comes to that.

I think Yzerman simply was facing the dilemma of his team having too many FA's hitting contract negotiation at the same time, and he can't commit the $$ Stamkos demands to him AND keep the other FA's inline at the same time. As a result he has to choose between Stamkos or the young guys, and he chose the younger guys. I respect that decision but that's how a young, elite star player hits UFA market in 2 days.
 
The number of 10.5 has been out there for a while that all Stammer wants it to be a little more than Kane and Toews. I think the NHLPA is also begging him not to take a "hometown discount". I bet it will something stupid like the A-rod deal of 10.5 mill and 1 dollar cap hit, or something like that.

I wish if this were a sign and trade we give them a "bit" of salary back. Bozak would be a solid get for Tampa. Callahan is out with the hip thing and they need another centre.
 
I'm curious about something though. If there has been a "veil of silence" this whole time, what makes everyone so sure Stamkos will sign in Toronto? Is it simply the hometown thing? Has Stamkos actually said he wants to play in Toronto? Legit question, how did this all start again?

reasons:

1.hometown
2.matthews
3.shanorello
4.babcock
 
$10.5 is fine with me, but not a lot more than that.

If we over-commit to a single player, as good as he may be, we'll run into the same problem Tampa has today in 5 or 6 years, when Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Rielly and Kadri all hitting our cap for RFA/UFA negotiation. But we also have to acknowledge nobody has scored more goals than Stamkos other than Ovie over the past 5 years, and he's only 26. There's a price to pay for that.
 
reasons:

1.hometown
2.matthews
3.shanorello
4.babcock
And I think hometown is not even a top factor. Seriously, take away the hometown factor, and Toronto should still be one of the top choices considering $$, city, coaching, team management etc. Hometown is just icing on the cake imo.
 
And I think hometown is not even a top factor. Seriously, take away the hometown factor, and Toronto should still be one of the top choices considering $$, city, coaching, team management etc. Hometown is just icing on the cake imo.

Nah, hometown totally has to be a factor, otherwise you guys wouldn't really be in the race for him. Seriously, if it was the same player but not from Toronto, why would he sign with you guys?

-He keeps saying that he wants to play centre, but you just drafted a young elite C, and signed your previous best centre to a 6 year deal. You've basically either got to trade the guy you gave a big deal to or move him down to the 3rd line for Stamkos to stay at C. He kind of has to know that if he signs in Toronto, he'll be playing wing in a few years
-Your team is not a winning club. Sure, maybe that's not a big deal, and maybe in a few years you'll get to that point, but how often will the top UFA sign with the team that just got the #1 draft pick?
-You may love your management, but they haven't proven to be able to ice a winner yet. Since they've taken over, they've done a great job at tanking, but building a winner is still another story.


Sure Toronto's a great city, you have history, cap space, etc... but if he wasn't from Toronto, you'd basically be another team like Buffalo or Edmonton, saying, "hey, we suck, but we have money. Want to come play for us?"
 
$10.5 is fine with me, but not a lot more than that.

If we over-commit to a single player, as good as he may be, we'll run into the same problem Tampa has today in 5 or 6 years, when Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Rielly and Kadri all hitting our cap for RFA/UFA negotiation. But we also have to acknowledge nobody has scored more goals than Stamkos other than Ovie over the past 5 years, and he's only 26. There's a price to pay for that.

5 or 6 years of Stamkos with Matthews, Marner, Nylander etc... is exactly why we should consider signing him for whatever the cost. Hell the sign and trade thing is really only necessary if Stamkos demands it, 7 year deal is better for us.
 
Nah, hometown totally has to be a factor, otherwise you guys wouldn't really be in the race for him. Seriously, if it was the same player but not from Toronto, why would he sign with you guys?

-He keeps saying that he wants to play centre, but you just drafted a young elite C, and signed your previous best centre to a 6 year deal. You've basically either got to trade the guy you gave a big deal to or move him down to the 3rd line for Stamkos to stay at C. He kind of has to know that if he signs in Toronto, he'll be playing wing in a few years
-Your team is not a winning club. Sure, maybe that's not a big deal, and maybe in a few years you'll get to that point, but how often will the top UFA sign with the team that just got the #1 draft pick?
-You may love your management, but they haven't proven to be able to ice a winner yet. Since they've taken over, they've done a great job at tanking, but building a winner is still another story.


Sure Toronto's a great city, you have history, cap space, etc... but if he wasn't from Toronto, you'd basically be another team like Buffalo or Edmonton, saying, "hey, we suck, but we have money. Want to come play for us?"

Montreal's not the hometown, you don't have the cap space, Lamoriello/Babcock >>>> Bergevin/Therrien, and you don't have any prospects as good as Matthews, Marner or Nylander and you guys still think you have a shot so... yeah, I think we'd still have a shot without the hometown factor.

But luckily we don't have to worry about that.
 
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