I only follow combat sports extremely casually---so, serious question.
Like...McGregor has not shot here, right? This is just a publicity stunt, and a chance for him to cash in?
Because someone who's never boxed professionally before going up against a guy who's 49-0 seems kind of nuts.
Correct on all counts.
There's a small caveat but only a small one. Macgregor is a big 154 pound fighter, left handed, and has what appears to be the death touch with MMA gloves on. I was talking with a friend earlier about it though and imo, Macgregor's power is largely based on two factors that I think won't mean a damn against Floyd. First, he's one of the few MMA fighters who really understands/utilizes the role of balance, rotation, and accuracy over pure animal power when striking. So while his punching style is adapted for MMA....can't put all that weight on your front leg in MMA or you'll get leg kicked to death, (see Macgregor/Diaz II), you need a broader base to defend takedowns, far less use of the jab, from a technique standpoint he uses a lot of proper boxing (his timing is almost exactly what you would teach a counter puncher, he uses his upper body to create false impression of closeness to draw opponents into his pocket. (the Alvarez fight was a beautiful example of that). Which shouldn't surprise anyone. Macgregor was an amatuer boxer before he got into MMA, and Ireland has a fantastic boxing tradition. It's definitely bled through into what has made him successful in MMA.
so why doesn't that matter against Floyd? Because Floyd has seen everything that he can possibly bring, 1000 times, against world class opposition. What makes Macgregor special in MMA is that his boxing skills aren't shambolic by professional standards...but they're not professional level.
The second bit is this....I'm not sure how hard Macgregor will hit with 10 oz gloves on. People seem to take it for granted that he's a massive puncher, but I'm starting to develop the opinion that someone with average power while wearing 10 oz gloves would be a destroyer of worlds with those little 4 oz gloves on. It's just way easier to be accurate wearing the MMA gloves, and when your hand arrives it's bringing thunder. Way harder to parry or shoulder roll your way out of a 4 oz glove coming in on target.
Floyd has faced lefties with great hand speed and above average power, he's not going to get sucked into Conor's pocket by creating false impression of space with his upper body, and he's not going to get caught moving in towards Conor, or circling the wrong way against a lefty (which I've seen Macgregor opponents do).