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From Tanking to Budding, Projecting the 2016-17 Leafs

BeLeafer

BeLeafer

Well-known member
Funny, I found a fair bit of discussion going on in the catch-all thread about the way this team will perform this year. I had been working out some projections just last night on this team. I also thought it might be good to go back to the ways of yesteryear and not dump everything into one or two threads.

I lined up all the players from the start of last season and compared their goal production against the projections for this year's lineup. All goal production below takes the rate of goal production and extrapolates to 82 games. I did this for simplicity and then adjusted it to the overall total goal production for 2015-16.

2015 player: 2016 player, 82 game goal total 2015-16 --> projection for 2016-17

JVR: JVR, 29 –> 29
Komarov: Komarov, 23 –> 23
Kadri: Kadri, 18 –> 21
Bozak: Bozak, 17 –> 17
Parenteau: Marner, 21 –> 20
Matthias: Matthews, 10 –> 25
Grabner: Nylander, 9 –> 22
Boyes: Soshnikov, 11 –> 16
Holland: Laich, 11 –> 9
Lupul: Leivo, 20 –> 16
Winnik: Martin, 6 –> 6
Froese: Michalek, 3 –> 7

Rielly: Rielly, 9 –> 11
Gardiner: Gardiner, 7 –> 11
Hunwick: Carrick, 2 –> 5
Phaneuf: Zaitsev, 5 –> 4
Marincin: Marincin, 2 –> 4

This represents an increase from 205 goals to 246. That's a 20% increase in goals scored.

Obviously, the starting lineup doesn't play a full 82 games and the Leafs didn't score 205 goals last season. They scored 198 goals. If we apply a 20% increase to 198 goals we get 238 based on the above projections.

This would place the Leafs around 7th in the league in GF. Maybe a bit ambitious, but there's a big bump in skill coming in over last season.

Turning to goaltending, it's fairly safe to say that will also improve. Bernier, Reimer and Sparks gave up 227 goals. With EN goals the total GA for the Leafs was 246. Assuming a .916 SV% for Andersen and .910 SV% for Bernier (or whoever is the backup), the goalies should give up around 212 goals. Throw in 15 EN goals and the total comes to 227.

Goal differential is key to projecting standing. Last season the Leafs netted out to -48 goals. With these projections, the Leafs net out to a +11 goal differential.

A +11 goal differential should be good for anywhere between the 18th and 10th spot this season. The Leafs are probably a bubble team but leaning more toward making the playoffs than not.

I don't think this really differs much from what others around here are expecting, but I thought you might find the calculations interesting.
 
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almost time to blow the dust off the old Leaf train

48653
 
Yeah, Gardiner has the shot to score 12-15, but I don't think he has the hockey IQ to put himself in that many situations to score.
 
MindzEye said:
Yeah, Gardiner has the shot to score 12-15, but I don't think he has the hockey IQ to put himself in that many situations to score.
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Yeah it's a toolbox thing for me rather than tools. Just not a fan of his decision making. Solid PMD but not a guy I'd expect more than 10 from.
 
Playing in a similar role with more talent around him? I could see him be in that range again. He's put up reasonable offensive numbers in every other league he's played in.
 
MindzEye said:
Playing in a similar role with more talent around him? I could see him be in that range again. He's put up reasonable offensive numbers in every other league he's played in.
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I'm not certain he's in the same role.

I think Michalek, Nylander and Marner might take away some opportunity
 
Yeah, Leo has offensive talent and a nose for the net. Don't let all the banging fool ya.

In terms of Gardiner, 11 goals is a fair bump over last season. He's got talent but not sure he'll exceed that number. I thought it might even be a bit high. A key will be how effective the powerplay is this year and what role he and Rielly play on it.
 
Our powerplay should be much improved but no gaurantee that gardiner get a 1st unit assignment this year. Either way the points last season were the most dangerous part of the PP this year they should get more space.
 
MindzEye said:
a622ef51bedeb2cb9469bca2263b1a25.jpg



almost time to blow the dust off the old Leaf train

48653
Click to expand...

Oh man back in the days I had a Leafs bus that I had made in MS paint (it was a Go Bus with Leafs' colours) and posted it before each playoffs game. Would love to have that back haha Can't find it.
 
Tough call. So much depends on our 19 and 20 year olds. I'm going with 13th in the East, 8th overall pick. There's potential to be better though.
 
Projections like this are always on the high side. Like, you're not going to have 6 guys score 20+ goals, with another 3 guys score 15+. The opportunities are rarely there for that many people.

But in terms of goal differential, you likely have the talent to get up to around even on the year I would say. That would be a huge increase from last year, but likely do-able. If you get to there, you're likely still on the outside looking in at the playoffs, but you won't be eliminated in November like this year.
 
UWHabs said:
Projections like this are always on the high side. Like, you're not going to have 6 guys score 20+ goals, with another 3 guys score 15+. The opportunities are rarely there for that many people.
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I did not projecting those numbers. Have another read of the OP. I was just showing my calculations for the team goal totals.
 
Last year, 22% of the Leafs goals came from players not listed above as on the starting roster. This was undoubtedly higher than average, as the Leafs had a ton of turnover with giving a bunch of young guys NHL try outs.

Assuming that 15% of the season's goals will come from players other than those on the projected starting roster, the 82 game projections above can be adjusted to more realistic individual projections. They would look like this:

JVR: 24
Komarov: 20
Kadri: 17
Bozak: 17
Marner: 17
Matthews: 21
Nylander: 19
Soshnikov: 14
Laich: 8
Leivo: 14
Martin: 5
Michalek: 6

Rielly: 9
Gardiner: 9
Carrick: 4
Zaitsev: 3
Marincin: 3

This gives a total of 209 goals from the starting roster. With 15% or 29 goals coming from other players, the total comes to 238. That total projects just three 20 goal scorers.

There are two players that look a bit off to me. Leivo won't likely get enough opportunity to score 14. Michalek may well get prime ice time to help boost some trade value and he's capable of a lot more than 6 goals, if healthy. I also think Kadri might benefit the most from the talent infusion and well exceed this 17 goal projection.
 
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