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The Best Realest Standings, Big League

All Situations Adjusted xGF% Standings

1.BOS 55.8
2.TOR 52.7
3.TBL 51.3
-------------------
4.MTL 50.3
5.FLA 49.2
6.OTT 48.7
7.BUF 48.0
8.DET 47.7

1.CAR 52.9
2.PIT 52.6
3.NYR 52.0
--------------------
4.WSH 51.4*
5.PHI 51.2*
6.CBJ 49.7
7.NYI 47.9
8.NJD 46.7
 
zeke said:
All Situations Adjusted xGF% Standings

1.BOS 55.8
2.TOR 52.7
3.TBL 51.3
-------------------
4.MTL 50.3
5.FLA 49.2
6.OTT 48.7
7.BUF 48.0
8.DET 47.7

1.CAR 52.9
2.PIT 52.6
3.NYR 52.0
--------------------
4.WSH 51.4*
5.PHI 51.2*
6.CBJ 49.7
7.NYI 47.9
8.NJD 46.7
Click to expand...


flawed data
 
worm said:
flawed data
Click to expand...

Hey, if you want to hang your hat on data that has Washington as the 6th best team in the conference (and in a virtual tie with the powerhouse Flyers and Bolts) and has Boston and Carolina at the top, then knock yourself out.
 
xGF or what we get when we assume every team has equal talent for shooting skill, and for goaltending skill.

Shows a good team, but doing "standings" might be taking it a bit farther than it was intended.
 
Asterisk = wild cards


Atlantic

1.OTT 99
2.MTL 98
3.TOR 93
----------------
4.FLA 92
5.BOS 90
6.TBL 86
7.BUF 85
8.DET 79

Metro

1.WSH 121
2.PIT 114
3.CBJ 112
-----------------
4.NYR 108*
5.NYI 92*
6.PHI 86
7.CAR 82
8.NJD 82


Central

1.MIN 117
2.CHI 108
3.STL 92
-----------------
4.NSH 90*
5.WPG 81
6.DAL 77
7.COL 50

Pacific

1.SJS 105
2.EDM 100
3.ANA 98
-----------------
4.CGY 87*
5.LAK 86
6.VAN 79
7.ARZ 69


Overall

1.WSH 121
2.MIN 117
3.PIT 114
4.CBJ 112
5.NYR 108
6.CHI 108
7.SJS 105
8.EDM 100
9.OTT 99
10.MTL 98
11.ANA 98
12.TOR 93
13.NYI 92
14.FLA 92
15.STL 92
16.NSH 90
17.BOS 90
18.CGY 87
19.LAK 86
20.TBL 86
21.PHI 86
22.BUF 85
23.CAR 82
24.NJD 82
25.WPG 81
26.VAN 79
27.DET 79
28.DAL 77
29.ARZ 69
30.COL 50
 
The Atlantic is up for grabs. The Leafs have a tough patch ahead but the California teams are not hot lately. The goaltending on all three of those teams is seriously beatable (Bernier, Budaj, Jones). Need Freddy and McElhinney to keep it to three goals or fewer.

The toughest of the next four is probably the Rangers.
 
If we can get good goaltending the Rags can be taken.

That D is a tire fire and Lundqvist hasn't been putting up great numbers this year.

Key will be keeping their opposition at bay which won't be easy

Sent from my SM-G920W8 using Tapatalk
 
Everything came up Milhouse for the Leafs last night.

Panthers & Bruins both lose late in regulation, and as an added bonus, the Flyers lost in regulation as well.

Sets up a nice opportunity to add back to the cushion they used to have over the other bubble teams.
 
Well, we're not quite at the "must win" stage, but all the available points are pretty huge right now.

I'm also not entirely sure who to cheer for in the Montreal/Islanders game tonight. The Islanders are our competition for the second wild card spot, and they're only a point behind us. But then, if Montreal loses to them tonight and to the Leafs on Saturday, the Leafs could finish Saturday night one point behind Montreal in the standings with a game in hand.

Man, has that hefty Montreal lead ever evaporated. Even with the Leafs having some struggles of late too.
 
LeafGm said:
Well, we're not quite at the "must win" stage, but all the available points are pretty huge right now.

I'm also not entirely sure who to cheer for in the Montreal/Islanders game tonight. The Islanders are our competition for the second wild card spot, and they're only a point behind us. But then, if Montreal loses to them tonight and to the Leafs on Saturday, the Leafs could finish Saturday night one point behind Montreal in the standings with a game in hand.

Man, has that hefty Montreal lead ever evaporated. Even with the Leafs having some struggles of late too.
Click to expand...

Struggles that have, per the normal coverage of the Leafs, been overstated. They're 5-3-2 over the past 10 games (98 pt pace). 12-8-4 since the new year (96 pt pace). So, even struggling and with shit goaltending, they've been playing at a playoff pace over all of this.

Probably want the Islanders to lose rather than the Habs. Not sure what to expect with the Habs. With no coaching change, I'd expect them to continue their swan dive. I think it's still likely be Julien could right the ship before it's too late. Let them face the Metro WC in the first round in that case.
 
BeLeafer said:
Struggles that have, per the normal coverage of the Leafs, been overstated. They're 5-3-2 over the past 10 games (98 pt pace). 12-8-4 since the new year (96 pt pace). So, even struggling and with shit goaltending, they've been playing at a playoff pace over all of this.

Probably want the Islanders to lose rather than the Habs. Not sure what to expect with the Habs. With no coaching change, I'd expect them to continue their swan dive. I think it's still likely be Julien could right the ship before it's too late. Let them face the Metro WC in the first round in that case.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure what Julien can do, really. I still hold to the view that the Habs just aren't a very good team. At least, they're not very good when they're not getting consistent .930+ goaltending, along with unsustainable scoring levels from bit players like the Paul Byrons & Philip Danaults of the world, or even from their old dogs on defense, Shea Weber & Andrei Markov.

That viewpoint got some serious laughter from a few Hab fans earlier this season, as well as the fact that held on to my pre-season prediction that they'd miss the playoffs all through their early-season charge up the standings. But it has been some time now since the last time one of them asked me if I wanted to recant that prediction.

So yeah, guess I'll go with zeke's suggestion. For tonight, go Isles!
 
Hard to see Price continuing with sub-.900 goaltending but stranger things have happened. It's one thing that sometimes happens when a new coach comes in -- goalie starts playing better if they had struggles with previous coach (e.g., see Allen/St. Louis).

That said, you make good points about that team. Don't look very good on paper outside of Price. Pretenders probably wasn't a misnomer back in the fall.
 
pts %, we'd be ahead by a whisker.

I'm not confident about the Rangers game if Freddy is starting. Babs needs to rest his mule.
 
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