The Offseason Thread

Canes franchise is often blinded by loyalty. Look at that big contract we gave Brindy. We spent the last year and a half regretting it. Loyalty can be a positive towards attracting and retaining talent, but it can also be a negative. I think this is year 4 of the Francis era now coming up? Realistically a 5 year plan towards respectability, we look to be on track. But it's definitely time to upgrade between the pipes as well as a proven leader at the forward spot who can be counted on for 60+ points. I think we can all agree that the supporting cast is in place. It's time for Ronnie to make the moves which will ultimately define his era.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

Not to mention how much better the off season moves would look if Terravainen had actually done anything worth writing home about. 15 goals and 41 points thus for from a guy with his skill level and ice time? Really, really not getting it done where it matters most. Especially on a team staving for support scoring to back up Skinner.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

Terravainen has been a source of frustration for me all season long. You get these flashes of skill that make your eyes pop out, but more often you get these ill-conceived passes or other play that inevitably results in a turnover.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

Teravainen needs to be better, no arguing that. He's also 21 years old and just completing his entry level deal and really his 2nd full NHL season, so its not unreasonable to expect him to improve.

Again I think one of the biggest issues with a guy like Teravainen is that the overall offense is still not good enough. That puts pressure on Teravainen (and SKinner on some nights) to try to do way too much out there. I'm hopeful that at least 2 or 3 out of McGinn, PDG, Zykov, Saarela, Wallmark, Roy, Gauthier, Koukkenen can improve the offense next season and create a 3rd and 4th line that is actually dangerous out there. Get Rask back on track, get a full season of good production out of Lindholm and take some of the pressure off Teravainen so he can stop trying to be the offensive superstar that he is not.

I don't expect Teravainen to ever be more than a 50-55 point player in his best years. I think he reaches that level in the next couple of years IF the Canes can better balance the rest of the offense. Even as the 'NHL's highest scoring team in March', we are still 20th in the NHL in goals per game. The Sens are the only team below us in terms of Goals per Game that is going to make the playoffs. Teravainen and Aho (and Lindholm and Rask) SHOULD all be capable of being even better. But they need some help out there. Hopefully that is coming with this large batch of kids or via some trades.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

Got all off-season to talk about this, but Canes need a combination of about 25 or so more goals for (GF) and 20 or so less goals against (GA) to be able to legitimately hang with the playoff crowd.

That's not unobtainable next season. But waiting for growth from within feels more like a two-season thing and STILL would require a goaltender move, bare minimum.

A legit top-six talent to add to the four or five (depending on how you see Rask) we have would go a long ways toward that missing 25 GF's. And so would putting legit NHL'ers in the bottom six instead of padding it out from the farm team. Plenty of time for that when injuries strike. But that shouldn't be business as usual.

As for reducing the GA, round up the usual suspects. We're looking for one GA prevented every fourth game to produce the target 20 GA reduction for next season. Won't bore you with the math, but just getting a mere 0.915 SV% from the goalies instead of Cam's current 0.906 SV% yields 16 of the targeted 20 less GA's. Find an elite 0.920 SV% goalie and that position alone reduces GA's by 27 goals at the Canes current shots allowed pace. (Goalies ranked by SV%, filtered for 10 or more games played)

Couple that with internal defensive growth, both individually and system wide, and I'm not that worried about our GA's next season.

It's all about finding more scoring, individually and system wide. And, from a fan patience standpoint, Francis may need to make a move to address that this off-season, whether opportunistically from the chaos that the expansion draft will cause or strategically with a fellow GM, trading strength-for-strength.

Need a top-sixer. Need a #1 goalie. Need net-front presence, internally or externally. Stat.

GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

Teravainen is one of those players who can seduce you with his vision, passes and slick skills, but struggles to put all elements together consistently. This was his second full NHL season and he's exceeded last year's point total. There are times I wonder if he isn't one of those guys who will be more Samsonov versus Skinner.

Peters has said Teravainen is more center than winger and anticipates that being his natural position. That may be something to consider given his youth. Sometimes I think the kid just doesn't look that engaged/confident.


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Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

Elsker said:

Got all off-season to talk about this, but Canes need a combination of about 25 or so more goals for (GF) and 20 or so less goals against (GA) to be able to legitimately hang with the playoff crowd.

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I'm not sure what you mean by "hang with the playoff crowd" but just to put that into better context, if the Canes had 25 more GFs and 20 less GAs, that's be a 45 goal improvement in their differential and tie them for 5th in the conference and 8th in the entire league. Even a more modest 30-35 goal improvement slots the Canes into the lower (but not fringe) playoff area. And if the Metro next year comes into a slightly lower orbit, that would help too.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

I'll just be blunt, if Ron Francis does not make finding a number 1 goaltender his main goal this summer then really he can pretty much take just as much blame as the other handful of idiots that have basically driven this team into the ground...as a fan of this team for a long time I just find the whole Cult of Cam and the loyalty garbage to be an absolute joke. Rewarding loyalty over performance and giving ridiculous contract extensions to players that simply have not performed is absurd and it's went on here for far too long.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

bagopux said:

I'm not sure what you mean by "hang with the playoff crowd" but just to put that into better context, if the Canes had 25 more GFs and 20 less GAs, that's be a 45 goal improvement in their differential and tie them for 5th in the conference and 8th in the entire league. Even a more modest 30-35 goal improvement slots the Canes into the lower (but not fringe) playoff area. And if the Metro next year comes into a slightly lower orbit, that would help too.

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Yes, I meant solidly in the playoff mix, not just hanging in by our last-in fingernails and happy to be there as playoff fodder.

That is a net one-goal differential, whether GF or GA, every other game.

A little more talent and experience, and this seems doable.

Minimize the softies and all-alone-in-the-slot GA opportunities. Multiple paths to find just one more GF every two or three games.

This is fixable.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

This ALL could have been fixed going into THIS season. So to me THAT is unacceptable. I hate it when us fans are right, but credit where credit due. Any surprises here on the season, outside of the 4 stat niceties with Slavin, Pesce, Aho and Skinner? Not really. Ok add Lindholm to the mix for stepping up his game to a new level this 2nd half of the season but otherwise.... what you see is what we got. And knew it. Fail fail fail.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

We did this same analysis prior to the season and came up with 'league average goaltending sv%' as one of the big things we needed to have to make the playoffs this season. If we could simply get league average from our goaltending, with our expected improvement in goal scoring (which while still not great, was there, we are on pace to score about 12 more goals), we would have a shot at the playoffs.

Our goaltending failed again (by a long shot) in that regard this season and, sure enough, that was again a major reason we are missing the playoffs again. I will say though that our goals allowed are not 100% on our goaltending. Good defense (forwards and DMen) limits high quality scoring chances which makes saves easier and improves a goalie's sv%. So its not fair to say that a goalie's less than stellar Sv% is a result simply of their play and the team around them has nothing to do with sv%. That is not the case.

Certainly our goaltending is below average and that needs to be addressed for this team to make the playoffs next year. Failure to do that in the offseason was a big mistake last year, but it would be an epic failure of management to repeat that mistake this offseason. RF needs to attempt to do SOMETHING to improve the goaltending next season. If we make changes and it doesn't work out, at least we are TRYING to fix the goaltending. RF has to acknowledge this issue and make a change no matter what. But we have work to do in overall team D too (aka a 3rd pair that isn't swiss cheese out there and Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin not allowing players to blow by them unchecked). Both our overall D and the goaltending need to be better, especially if this team is not going to suddenly morph into an unstoppable force on offense.

Note that when I say RF needs to TRY to fix the goaltending, I don't mean bringing in Peter Budaj to be the 1B goalie. I mean some sort of real effort to bring in someone reasonably capable of being an actual NHL #1 goalie. Now is not the time to 'half-ass' the effort to improve the goaltending.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

I agree and will say that if we had had more reliable, dare I say acceptable level goaltending, this would translate to say 3-4 more wins? A better overall goals against... also fix your 3rd pairing too and the whole team isn't:

1/ trying to rally from giving up a bad goal (goalie or team or both related)
2/ team trying to cover for its weakest points (3rd pairing on D and how that limits in itself because if you can't count on them on 5-on-5... would you dare put Murphy and Dhalbeck or whoever failed there as a 3rd pairing out on the penalty kill or power play or 4-on-4? So it all translates to an overall negative effect on the team d.

Its all connected - and no coincidence we aren't making the playoffs, minor to modest gains aside.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

cmaleski2 said:

.....
Note that when I say RF needs to TRY to fix the goaltending, I don't mean bringing in Peter Budaj to be the 1B goalie. I mean some sort of real effort to bring in someone reasonably capable of being an actual NHL #1 goalie. Now is not the time to 'half-ass' the effort to improve the goaltending.

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This is dead on accurate. Any solution that involves Cam going into the preseason as the "favorite" to win the started job is a complete failure. Replacing Lack with another "prayer" in goal that can come in and take the job from Cam can't happen. The team needs to bring someone in via trade or free agency that is the clear #1 goalie and pushes Cam (if the org wants to keep him to get to win #300 in a backup role next year) or Lack to the backup position.

I personally don't care who goes, but someone has to go and a new #1 must arrive this off-season. In all honesty, the Canes probably NEED to spend money so going after a UFA like Bishop could be a win/win....or make a trade for Fleury. There are good options out there. You're up Ronnie.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

CarolinaPen said:

This is dead on accurate. Any solution that involves Cam going into the preseason as the "favorite" to win the started job is a complete failure. Replacing Lack with another "prayer" in goal that can come in and take the job from Cam can't happen. The team needs to bring someone in via trade or free agency that is the clear #1 goalie and pushes Cam (if the org wants to keep him to get to win #300 in a backup role next year) or Lack to the backup position.

I personally don't care who goes, but someone has to go and a new #1 must arrive this off-season. In all honesty, the Canes probably NEED to spend money so going after a UFA like Bishop could be a win/win....or make a trade for Fleury. There are good options out there. You're up Ronnie.

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ding ding ding. there are obvious problems and somewhat a need to spend SOME money. Get it done. At least between the pipes. Maybe sign a vet defender help out with that third pairing and provide for some vet leadership. get. it. done.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

It depends on which Ben Bishop. The 2013-16 Ben Bishop had a 2.30 GAA and .922 Save %. The 2016-17 Ben Bishop has a 2.49 GAA and .911 Save %. And he's making $5.95 million. Are you willing to go $6 million for a goalie that turns 31 at Thanksgiving, coming off a down year?

Here is a list of the UFA goalies, age and their current cap hit in millions. How much do you think Scott Darling is going to fetch on the open market?

Ryan Miller, 36, $6.0
Mike McKenna, 34, $0.575
Ben Bishop, 30, $5.95
Jeremy Smith, 28, $0.675
Jonathan Bernier, 28, $4.15
Steve Mason, 29, $4.1
Ondrej Pavelec, 29, $3.9 ($4.75 actual)
Michael Leighton, 36, $0.7
Brian Elliott, 32, $2.5 ($2.7 actual)
Joe Cannata, 27, $0.575
Chad Johnson, 31, $1.7
Darcy Kuemper, 27, $1.55
Reto Berra, 30, $1.45
Keith Kincaid, 27, $0.725 ($0.750 actual)
Lars Johansson, 29, $0.575
Anders Nilsson, 27, $1.0
Mike Condon, 27, $0.575
Scott Darling, 28, $0.588 ($0.600 actual)
Peter Budaj, 34, $0.6
Jhonas Enroth, 29, $0.75
Troy Grosenick, 27, $0.6
Matt Hackett, 27, $0.6
Justin Peters, 30, $0.6
Curtis McElhinney, 34, $0.8
Jonas Gustavsson, 32, $0.8

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

The Pens are going to have to make some move as the expansion draft looms, all of which involve MA Fleury waiving his no movement/no trade clause:

1) Get MA Fleury to waive his no movement clause so they can leave him unprotected in the expansion draft

2) Trade MA Fleury somewhere prior to the expansion draft

Outside of some sort of compensation agreement with Vegas to have Fleury land there or not land there via expansion draft, you would have to think that the Pens come out better by trading Fleury somewhere rather than losing him to Vegas in the expansion draft. I don't know what rumors are out there related to MA Fleury, but he holds all of the cards because of his NMC/NTC. He HAS to waive that or Matt Murray is exposed which obviously the Pens cannot let happen under any circumstances. MA Fleury can pretty much pick his landing spot.

I would take MA Fleury as a 2 year solution for the Canes, especially if we can get the Pens to retain some of his salary/cap hit. I suspect there are several other teams out there that would too so it becomes a question of where Fleury would be willing to go and what is going back to the Pens. This will be one of many interesting sagas.

Personally I would prefer just giving Bishop 5 years $30 million if he is willing to sign here. Sell him on how good this team is going to be with goaltending being the biggest missing piece. Bernier would be another UFA I wouldn't mind seeing here, but on a shorter term. Just say no to Peter Budaj please!

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

Frankly, I think Bishop's season numbers come largely down to the general unsettled atmosphere in Tampa that lead to several guys having weird seasons. If Yzerman had sacked up and moved him over the summer, I'm betting his performance is a lot more like where he's been the last couple of seasons. I'm also perfectly comfortable with Carolina, or anybody else with a big old hole in net, making him a big offer. He's a franchise guy and they don't hit the market often. That said ... we don't have the money for that, so I don't expect Carolina to play that game. If we make a deal for a proper keeper it will likely be via trade.

And if I was a betting man, I'd put money on Francis going cheap and rolling the dice on another 1B kind of guy, hoping he can coax just enough out of Ward and Mystery Guy No 2 ... again. Yes. This is stupid. And, yes, this IMO is likely to be what happens. Because money ... or lack thereof. I've already told my ticket rep that he can cancel my account if they re-sign Lack and bring that duo back ... which I also see as more likely than Karmanos finding enough cash in a storage unit somewhere to finance a FA deal. Because I'm a patient man ... but not a complete idiot.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

There may be a couple of other orgs with two good goalies that are going to have to make some decisions prior to the expansion draft.

There may be trade opportunities in addition to the UFA market.

And we have the currency of choice, if so: picks and prospects.

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

jeffbear said:

And if I was a betting man, I'd put money on Francis going cheap and rolling the dice on another 1B kind of guy, hoping he can coax just enough out of Ward and Mystery Guy No 2 ... again. Yes. This is stupid. And, yes, this IMO is likely to be what happens. Because money ... or lack thereof. I've already told my ticket rep that he can cancel my account if they re-sign Lack and bring that duo back ... which I also see as more likely than Karmanos finding enough cash in a storage unit somewhere to finance a FA deal. Because I'm a patient man ... but not a complete idiot.

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If they have to go this route, taking a flyer on UFA Scott Darling might be the way to go. He's got to be looking for someone to give him a chance to earn a #1 role.

And, if so, there's no one in sight here to give him much of a struggle.

His 0.924 SV% over 32 games so far this season is good for 11th place in the league (for goalies with 10 or more starts).

Re: GDT: Canes @ Wild 4/4 8:00

Bishop and Fleury have each had down years statistically and it for the same reason around the uncertainty about their futures. It can't be fun to answer "when will you be traded?" questions everyday of the season. I would expect them each to jump back to normal levels next year.

Regarding age, I would not be concerned about signed a 30-32 year old goalie to a 5 year deal. Goalies are the one position in hockey that don't see a big statistical drop off in the 30's like the other position players. Goalies, if healthy, can continue to produce well into the 30's. If the Canes can sign Bishop, they have to go for it.

The other option is Fleury and the cost for Fleury will not be very high on the trade market as everyone knows the Pens HAVE to trade him or get him to move the NMC.....which then pretty much gurantees he ends up in Vegas. I don't see any scenario Pittsburgh retains any salary as $5.75 for 2 years are not bad numbers....especially when you see some of the contracts this summer!

I think odds are good Fleury would wave the NMC for Carolina as it could be a promising landing spot for him. Carolina can compete for the playoffs, and hopefully do more than that, with a better performance coming from the net. The Canes aren't a bad landing spot, especially when other options are an expansion team, and we know the two GM's have a trade history.

It could be an interesting combo next year if Fleury/Ward where the duo. They each likely hit career milestones next year for wins (Ward #300 and Fleury #400). That would be fun to watch and another plus for Canes marketing deptartment. Fleury and Lundqvist have also been the best goalies in the shootout era so that would be a nice turnaround for Carolina. We could stop penciling in a L when the games go to a shoot out!