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Darkhorse / Breakout Predictions

Aberdeen

Well-known member
I'm Leafs deficienct. Particularly optimisic things. So how about some darkhorse prospect predictions, or breakout roster players?

I'm calling for Moore to have a near-career year for us on the 4th line.

And of the prospects, I think we see Yegor Korshkov continue his pre-injury rise up the ranks. Lots of buzz.

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Rielly has his coming out party.

Leivo gets a chance and keeps on producing.

Liljegren makes a real play for a spot on the team.
 
A few of our lesser-known propects that I'll be watching closely next year:

Jesper Lindgren - A 20 year-old, 6'0" Swedish RHD (4th round, 2015) who's put up dominating offensive numbers in the Swedish junior league, and pretty good numbers for Modo, which plays in minor-league level of Swedish hockey. He's also had the misfortune of playing for a godawful, disaster of a team the past couple of years.

This coming season he's going to be moving to HPK, who were a top-5 team in the 15-team Finnish Liiga last season. I'm really curious how he'll do playing for a better team, and a league that's a step up from where he was playing last season.

Nikolai Chebykin - An about-to-turn-20-years-old, 6'3", Russian left winger (7th round, 2016). He split last season between three teams in three different leagues. In the Russian junior league, he scored 17 goals & 27 points in 17 games. In the minor-league VHL, he scored 5 goals & 8 points in 24 regular season games, before breaking out a bit with 9 points in 15 playoff games. He also had 8 games in the KHL, where he scored one goal.

Doesn't seem too impressive on the face of it, but he scored his lone KHL goal:

cZNkNwk.gif




...in a game where he received a minute and thirty seconds of ice-time. And that was pretty typical of how much he played in any of his KHL games. His total in TOI for each of the 9 KHL games he dressed for last year: 5:13, 1:16, 0:22, 0:00, 1:30, 0:08, 5:33, 10:35, 0:09.

As for where he's playing in 2017-18...that's a little up in the air right now. His KHL organization, Dynamo Moscow, had its offices raided by the Russian anti-corruption squad last month. Then it came out a couple weeks ago that they hadn't paid most of their players anything in several months, so 42 players (Chebykin included) have been released from their contracts, and are now unrestricted free agents.

So, he could go to another KHL team that'll hopefully give him more of a shot. Or he could come play for the Marlies on an AHL deal. Now normally a recently drafted prospect would balk at signing an AHL deal instead of an ELC. But for a kid who essentially played last season for free back in Russia, a guaranteed paycheque in US dollars from the richest hockey team in the world may look pretty attractive.

Dakota Joshua - A 21 year-old, 6'3 center (5th round, 2014) who scored 35 points in 33 games in his sophomore season in the NCAA. He is a bit older than the typical 2nd year NCAAer, since he played his draft year and his draft+1 season in the USHL before moving on to the NCAA.

But still, it was a nice step forward from the 17 points he scored in 29 games the year before. The fact that he, Adam Brooks and Freddie Gauthier are the only center prospects in the organization makes me especially curious to see if last year was his ceiling, or if he can take another step forward this year.
 
Forgot about Lindgren. Good call. Never actually watched him play. Good skating?

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A few of our lesser-known propects that I'll be watching closely next year:

Jesper Lindgren - A 20 year-old, 6'0" Swedish RHD (4th round, 2015) who's put up dominating offensive numbers in the Swedish junior league, and pretty good numbers for Modo, which plays in minor-league level of Swedish hockey. He's also had the misfortune of playing for a godawful, disaster of a team the past couple of years.

This coming season he's going to be moving to HPK, who were a top-5 team in the 15-team Finnish Liiga last season. I'm really curious how he'll do playing for a better team, and a league that's a step up from where he was playing last season.

Nikolai Chebykin - An about-to-turn-20-years-old, 6'3", Russian left winger (7th round, 2016). He split last season between three teams in three different leagues. In the Russian junior league, he scored 17 goals & 27 points in 17 games. In the minor-league VHL, he scored 5 goals & 8 points in 24 regular season games, before breaking out a bit with 9 points in 15 playoff games. He also had 8 games in the KHL, where he scored one goal.

Doesn't seem too impressive on the face of it, but he scored his lone KHL goal:

cZNkNwk.gif




...in a game where he received a minute and thirty seconds of ice-time. And that was pretty typical of how much he played in any of his KHL games. His total in TOI for each of the 9 KHL games he dressed for last year: 5:13, 1:16, 0:22, 0:00, 1:30, 0:08, 5:33, 10:35, 0:09.

As for where he's playing in 2017-18...that's a little up in the air right now. His KHL organization, Dynamo Moscow, had its offices raided by the Russian anti-corruption squad last month. Then it came out a couple weeks ago that they hadn't paid most of their players anything in several months, so 42 players (Chebykin included) have been released from their contracts, and are now unrestricted free agents.

So, he could go to another KHL team that'll hopefully give him more of a shot. Or he could come play for the Marlies on an AHL deal. Now normally a recently drafted prospect would balk at signing an AHL deal instead of an ELC. But for a kid who essentially played last season for free back in Russia, a guaranteed paycheque in US dollars from the richest hockey team in the world may look pretty attractive.

Dakota Joshua - A 21 year-old, 6'3 center (5th round, 2014) who scored 35 points in 33 games in his sophomore season in the NCAA. He is a bit older than the typical 2nd year NCAAer, since he played his draft year and his draft+1 season in the USHL before moving on to the NCAA.

But still, it was a nice step forward from the 17 points he scored in 29 games the year before. The fact that he, Adam Brooks and Freddie Gauthier are the only center prospects in the organization makes me especially curious to see if last year was his ceiling, or if he can take another step forward this year.

Wow, 8 seconds in one game. You finally have someone to fill the hole left by Jeff Farkas.
 
Man, Jeff Farkas. That's a name I haven't heard in a long-time.

Obligatory "we're getting old moment": the Leafs drafted Farkas 20 years ago as of this year.

Pretty nice that we now live in a time where that level of prospect, and the three "darkhorse" guys I listed above, don't even crack a top-10 list of Leaf prospects.
 
Well, we've got Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Brown, Zaitsev, Hyman, and to a lesser extent Carrick, who all "broke out" last year.

Not sure if I'd count Kapanen in that group just yet.

It almost seems unfair to have any more this year. But who are the candidates anyway?

Kapanen, Dermott, Grundstrom, Rosen, Borgman, Liljegren (yes, I think there's a small chance he makes it).

If that's the list of potentials, I think I'd have to go with Kapanen, though it depends on what happens with the logjam with the forwards.

But for whatever reason, I think one of the two Swedish UFAs makes an impact, and I probably go with the ROY Borgman.
 
Grundstrom cracks the opening lineup

This one would shock me. Mainly because of the winger log-jam we've already got, with Kapanen & Leivo ahead of him on the waiting list for a place in the lineup.

Would basically mean that 2-3 regular forwards from last season get traded before training camp.

I do think he'll have a breakout year in the AHL, though.


Dermott wins Calder
I'm pretty confident that he'll nab a regular spot in our top-6 out of camp.

I don't think he has enough pure offensive skill to get into the Calder conversation, though.
 
Think Nylander could outproduce both Matthews and Marner (points). Gardiner takes yet another step forward under Babcock to get into first pairing level play with consistency.
 
The crazy part is there are a ton of legit candidates.

For darkhorses would it shock anyone if a guy like Kapanen, Bracco, Liljegren, Grundstrom, Korshkov, Brooks, Aaltonen, Rosen, Borgman, Dermott, Neilsen had a big year.

And odds are pretty good at least one of Matthews, Marner, Nylander or Rielly will have a huge break out season. Maybe even Kadri or Gardiner. Bounce back from Marleau?

The Leafs are good.
 
Marleau is a good pick.. he's going to love playing with speed again... and passing to guys that can bury the puck. 25/55 would be a nice round number.
 
Marleau is a good pick.. he's going to love playing with speed again... and passing to guys that can bury the puck. 25/55 would be a nice round number.
If Marleau replaces Hyman on Matthews' left wing, then I'm picking Auston Matthews as a breakout player when it comes to his assist totals.

Not to mention if Nylander is also his full-time right winger, instead of it being a split with Connor Brown.
 
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