Maple Leafs relying on sports science to determine Matthews’ status
Chris Johnston
The first person who greeted Auston Matthews when he came off the ice from Wednesday’s practice wasn’t a trainer or public-relations staffer.
It was Dr. Jeremy Bettle, the Toronto Maple Leafs director of sports science and performance, and he went straight for No. 34’s shoulder pads.
The Catapult GPS tracker Matthews wore for the 40-minute skate arguably contained the most important information about whether he’ll be cleared to return to the Leafs lineup on Thursday night after missing three games with an undisclosed upper-body injury.
You’d probably have better luck getting the nuclear codes than having a member of the organization disclose exactly how that information is applied, but it’s become clear that the Leafs are among a growing number of NHL teams leaning heavily on biometrics in their decision-making.
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here’s been a distinct change in tone since Babcock’s first season behind the Leafs bench. Where once he seemed almost skeptical of the sports science department – repeatedly referencing the “science project” when asked about the status of an injured player – he’s now largely deferential to their role within the organization.
It has been most apparent during the Matthews injury situation because it’s believed the star centre’s absence is more about maintenance than anything else.
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After rejoining the Leafs for practice on Wednesday, he noted that he’d been operating under “restrictions” placed upon him by the sports science staff.
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Clearly, he’d like to play against the Devils. Babcock certainly wouldn’t have trouble finding a spot for him in the lineup – he put Matthews back between William Nylander and Zach Hyman in line rushes and had him participate in power-play drills during Wednesday’s practice.
In years gone by, that might have been enough to ensure a player’s return.
Now there’s at least one other factor being weighed in the conversation and, by Matthews’ own admission, he wasn’t completely himself in his first full practice back with the team. You’d have to think that showed up in the GPS data gathered by Bettle.
Dellow: Maple Leafs in a whole different league than rest of the NHL on the power play
You know which team is having a pretty incredible season in terms of average distance on unblocked shot attempts at 5-on-4? The Florida Panthers. Florida is currently averaging shots from a distance of 28.9 feet. Before this year, the only team to be credited with a shorter average shot distance at 5-on-4 is the 2010-11 New York Rangers, who allegedly averaged 28.4 feet. The distance measurements from Madison Square Garden are notoriously somewhat suspect, so it wouldn't surprise me if Florida has actually managed to shoot from closer than the Rangers team mentioned. Pretty impressive stuff.
Also of note: the Maple Leafs are currently averaging a shot distance of 26.7 feet at 5-on-4, almost two feet ahead of the 2010-11 Rangers. As a rule, I try to avoid exclamation points in my writing, but: !!!
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Let's deal with the numbers first. This unit is scoring 14.9 GF/60. The average 4F1D is scoring something like 7.5 GF/60. So that's pretty good. The shot volume they're generating is nuts: both 86.2 SF/60 and 144.2 CF/60 are wild numbers. They're getting nearly 60 per cent of their shot attempts on goal, which is really high, but then it's easier to hit the net when you're shooting from closer than any other team. A 17.3 per cent shooting percentage is really high but, again, you'll put more pucks into the net when you shoot from close.
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Now, about those rebounds. I cite two numbers up there: 21.5 rebounds per 60 and rebound percentage of 30.2 per cent. Rebounds per 60 is pretty self-explanatory. Rebound percentage is the percentage of shots on goal that don't go into the net (goals can't produce rebounds) that result in a rebound shot. That 30.2 per cent leads the NHL amongst five-man units that have been on the ice for at least 20 saved shots. Only four such groups are above 20 per cent.
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I took every five-man unit to be on the ice for at least 40 saves since 2010-11 and looked at their rebound rate. In all, 148 five-man units have been on the ice for at least 40 5-on-4 saves. This Toronto unit ranks first in terms of rebound rate amongst those groups. Second is a unit from the 2016-17 Anaheim Ducks (Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen) at 24. 7 per cent. Only six of the 148 units manage to top a rebound rate of 20 per cent, let alone the 30 per cent that Toronto's PP1 is currently rolling along at. Generally speaking, these have involved small samples, but even by small sample standards, the numbers are absurd.
Obviously, if you're generating a lot of rebound chances, it will help keep the shot distance down. The average distance for a rebound shot for this unit has been 13 feet and, as I've explained above, they've had a lot of them.
It's funny, Marner's been the one taking all the heat so far this year.How does Zach Hyman have more goals than Nylander right now?
pick it up, willy.
shit.
Young Leafs lead the pack in TSN Hockey's U-24 Core Four ranking
1. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
PLAYER AGE 2017-18 GP G A PTS
1. Auston Matthews, C 20 Toronto 16 10 9 19
2. Morgan Rielly, LD 23 Toronto 19 3 13 16
3. William Nylander, RW 21 Toronto 19 3 10 13
4. Mitch Marner, RW 19 Toronto 19 2 11 13
Last Year: Second (+1)
Aged Out: None
Scoop: A potential perennial 50-goal scorer, an anchor and leader on the blueline and two crafty and quick wingers who can read and think the game as well as any young players. The Maple Leafs narrowly edged the team with TSN Hockey’s consensus preseason No. 1 player based on the completeness and depth of their entry. Plus, the gap between Matthews and McDavid – force of nature versus freak of nature – seems to be narrowing by the week.