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Thread: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

  1. #1101
    Legend Artnes's Avatar
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    To early to start a trade deadline thread?

    I've been thinking about potential targets today that could help fill some holes and allow them to make a deep run.

    Priority would be a top 4 D and a centre. What are some potential targets they should be looking at as the deadline gets close

    Centre

    Thornton
    Backlund
    Nelson
    Tavares

    Best bang for your buck would likely be Thornton or Backlund. The potential to have Backlund match up against Bergeron would be enticing as would reuniting Thornton and Marleau who is struggling to find chemistry with Kadri.

    Defence (slim pickings with potential UFAs)

    Green?








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  2. #1102
    Legend Deckie007's Avatar
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    this is a fun tool (check out Rielly)

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/c...yerComparisons

  3. #1103
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    I never thought stamps was coming to the leafs last year. But this year I can honestly say I really think tavares will be leafs property by next training camp.
    It isn't that much of a leap. The amount that bozak and vanrimmer are paid would almost amount to the cost of tavares.
    So sharing that, I can't see the leafs going after any forwards that would cost more than a forth or fifth.
    The only thing I can see the leafs doing is maybe moving vanrimmer out for a young defencmen along with plus plus.
    Other than that just start pulling the reins back on bozaks ice time and give Matthews more.
    Btw. Someone hit Babcock over the head with his own friggen ego the next time brainiac decides to sit Dermot.
    Please please leafs trade Gardner. The guy is a train wreck whose actions in the ice look like someone who doesn't care.

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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    It sounds too pipe dreamy to me, but sooner or later one of the elite GTA boys is going to see what's going on here and want to be a part of it. Stamkos gave us a listen before we were good and didn't meet with anyone else other than us or Tampa. Doughty is using us to run up his number in LA, but I don't doubt that if LAK doesn't back up the brinks truck, he'd give Shanny a legit shot at bringing him home. JT has said almost all the right things over the years in a shitty NYI situation, but I wouldn't be shocked if he was willing to give a legit Toronto offer a lot of thought either.

    It may not happen soon, but sooner or later one of these guys who grew up in the area are going to want to see themselves in bronze next to Wendel, Dougie, Keon, Johnny B, etc. Toronto is one of the small handful of hockey markets that can legit make you as immortal as a hockey player can get.
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    Wayward Ditch Pig MindzEye's Avatar
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    Quote Originally Posted by Deckie007 View Post
    this is a fun tool (check out Rielly)

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/c...yerComparisons
    If you really want to be impressed...compare him to the defenders considered elite around the NHL. The only profile I've found better so far by these measures if Karlsson.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

  6. #1106
    Legend LeafGm's Avatar
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    This is how the Leafs' salary cap situation breaks down as of the end of this season.

    They'll have:

    Nine forwards (Matthews, Marner, Kadri, Brown, Hyman, Marleau, Leivo, Kapanen, Martin) under contract.

    Six defensemen (Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, Hainsey, Borgman, Dermott) under contract.

    Two goalies (Andersen & McElhinney/Sparks) under contract.

    After accounting for the salaries of all those players, and assuming the current projected cap ceiling of $82M, they'll have approximately $36M worth of available cap space to re-sign Nylander & Carrick and do...whatever else they feel like doing next summer.

    So the idea I keep coming back to is offering Tavares a one year/$16.4M contract.

    On JT's end of things, he gets to make a boat-load of short-term money chasing a Cup with his home-town team, and he gives the Islanders another year to get their arena situation sorted out before deciding on a long-term commitment. And the Leafs get to use the very short-term wad of cap-space they have in the last year of Matthews & Marner's ELC's to load up for a serious run at the Cup. Hell, you might even have enough space left that you could accommodate bringing in Joe Thornton too.
    I’ll trade five ordinary players for one great player any day. You can always find ordinary players.” - Conn Smythe

  7. #1107
    Legend Deckie007's Avatar
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post
    If you really want to be impressed...compare him to the defenders considered elite around the NHL. The only profile I've found better so far by these measures if Karlsson.
    That was the first guy I checked. But yeah Morgan is nearly there.

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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    So I'm bored and decided to rank NHL defenders according to the tool Deckie posted. For those too lazy to click on a link, it covers shots for contributions, zone entries and zone exits so there's some obvious aspects of defense it leaves out. It does seem to provide a lot excellent data on who the best pucking moving defenders in the NHL are. All scores below are an average of the 7 different categories in the tool Deckerson posted.

    These numbers appear to be non adjusted. So not controlled for quality of competition, line mates, zone starts, etc.

    The scores are /100 and this season only. Top 25 NHL defenders in PPG


    Erik Karlsson - 94.0
    Gostisbehere - 86.3
    Morgan Rielly - 85.56
    Roman Josi - 84.3
    Victor Hedman - 84.0
    Nick Leddy - 84.0
    Seth Jones - 83.3
    John Klingberg - 79.4
    John Carlson - 78.1
    Drew Doughty - 77.9
    Pietrangelo - 74.5
    Jared Spurgeon - 74.5
    Brent Burns - 71.5
    Kris Letang - 70.6
    Tyson Barrie - 70.4
    Shea Weber - 64.6
    Torey Krug - 64.4
    Mike Green - 63.2
    Jake Muzzin - 62.1
    Will Butcher - 61.9
    PK Subban - 57.7
    Sergachev - 53.4
    Ryan Suter - 53.10
    Keith Yandle - 46.9
    Shattenkirk - 47.8

    Some notable absentees from the previous list:

    OEL - 67.5 (his zone exits have been so, so bad...everything else top tier)
    Zach Werenski - 94.0 (yep...tied with Karlsson)
    Keith - 78.9
    Hamilton - 75.0
    Faulk - 89.8


    and for shits and giggles, the rest of the Leafs blueline

    Gardiner - 55.1
    Zaitsev - 28.1
    Borgman - 66.6
    Hainsey - 15.2
    Polak - 18.4
    Carrick - 19.1

    They sadly didn't have numbers for Travis Dermott yet.

    Going over these numbers, I noticed that our blueline doesn't appear to be particularly mobile. It's one thing if you have guys who aren't moving the puck but are excellent elsewhere (Hainsey) but in the modern NHL, if you're not outstanding defensively, you better be able to move the ****ing puck and we don't have enough of it imo. It would be really nice to add a guy who can play a solid game defensively, but is up in the high 60's or better in this type of metric. Borgman ranking this high gives me a bit of hope concerning his upside at only 22 years old.

    My core takeaways here is that Rielly is awesome (doing this against elite usage is impressive) and in our own backyard, Jake is having a shit season, and we don't need 3 Hainsey's that can't do what Hainsey does defensively. Polak and Carrick can **** off any time. Carrick I was particularly disappointed in because the puck skills appear to be there with the kid, but I guess he's just not quick enough to make up for his lack of size in the show.
    Last edited by MindzEye; 01-12-2018 at 01:42 AM.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

  9. #1109
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    And just for the sake of discussion around here as Zeke and I beat the drum on acquiring the guy:

    Erik Johnson - 67.5 (his shot metrics are in the 40's, excellent zone entries/exits so it appears that he's great at getting the puck from his end to the other end, but slightly lesser quality than Jake Gardiner once it gets there as far as getting his own shots on net, or assisting on getting a shot on net)

    But, the bottom line is that against high end usage, he's a good but not great puck mover.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

  10. #1110
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    Fairly certain I brought up EJ in the off-season and it was almost universally considered a terrible idea (I think ME was one of the few to entertain it).

    With Colorado doing reasonably still in the wild card conversation I doubt they move him. His contract is still a little intimidating but worth a gamble.
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  11. #1111
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    Its interesting numbers and kinda reflects what the eye test has shown, and Mbow discussed the other day.

    The Leafs do not move the puck particularly well. They either hold on too long, and try to skate through the neutral zone like Gardiner, or simply fire it off the glass like Polak, Carrick, Hainsey.

    Rielly, and to a lesser extend Borgman, are the only ones who can pass. Dermott has displayed this ability too. And actually there was an interesting article earlier in the year from the Athletic on Borgman's development. Sweden develops defenseman by teaching them to never throw pucks up the boards, and always try to make an extra play. So it is interesting to see the numbers support that, although I think he has fallen off a bit lately. In fairness though, he has never played anything close to an NHL schedule before. He probably needs some maintenance days down the stretch.

    People have commented on the Leafs looking slower at times this year, and this is the exact reason. Its not their skating, its the puck movement. Gardiner carrying the puck 100 feet completely slows down the game. As does turning the puck over in the neutral zone.

  12. #1112
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    The problem with Johnson, like JVR, is age and cost, not talent. Johnson is 30 and signed for 5 more years. That move probably shortens the window rather than extend it, even if it does make the team better right now. Last thing we want is Phaneuf of today on the cap when the kids are all being paid, entering their primes and the Leafs have their best shot to win.

    No need to rush the process at the expense of this teams prime.

    2-3 years from now our D will be:

    Rielly-Zaitsev
    Dermott-Liljegren

    As Dermott has shown, we can afford to be patient. The worst thing would have been to trade significant future assets and cap space for an expensive vet dman that will be done in 2 years when we have Dermott stepping in for 800k. If you can grab one of these elite dman like Karlsson, Doughty, OEL, Letang by all means. Otherwise just have faith in the process. Its been working.

    Plus the Avs never actually showed any interest in moving him anyway.
    Last edited by leafman101; 01-12-2018 at 08:32 AM.

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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    Mirtle: The surprising rise of Andreas Borgman – and what it says about where the NHL is headed

    It is a lesson that has stayed with Andreas Borgman every game these last few years.

    The coach was named Martin Filander, who at the time was the bench boss of Vasteras in Sweden's second division, the Allsvenskan. And his orders — with no exceptions — were that no player could dump the puck out of the zone.

    Borgman smiles remembering the edict.

    “He actually said we couldn’t rim the puck (around the boards) or nothing like that,” he recalled. “So we had to play it. We had to try to figure it out.

    ...

    “Borgman had fantastic numbers last year,” said Simon Brandstrom, whose firm SBPL Sports Data Analytics AB handles data analysis for HV71. “HV destroyed possession wise last year.”

    ...

    The biggest reason, he explained, was how he came out of his own zone with the puck.

    “He had really good exit numbers,” Brandstrom said. “Carried the puck insanely well.”

    Some of that information made it down to the players.

    “I saw some statistics, but not all of it,” Borgman said. “But I didn’t focus on that. I was just trying to play good and that would show up… On those teams, we almost never chipped the puck out or anything like that. We always tried to keep it and play through the middle (of the ice). We never actually go the boards and out. We always have to play it out.”

    ...
    the NHL currently has 29 Swedish defencemen on pace to play 30 games or more this season — an all-time high.

    Including Timothy Liljegren and Calle Rosen, two newcomers with the Marlies, there are 27 Swedish D-men in the AHL right now, the second highest total ever for that league.

    Somehow, a tiny European country of under 10 million people is now producing about 12 per cent of the defencemen in the top two North American leagues.

    Players who have come up in Sweden's development system credit the way they are taught to play the game from a young age.

    ...

    Sweden started to introduce a new nationwide training protocol for defencemen about 15 years ago. Ekman-Larsson said he noticed it as a teenager, in some of the new concepts that were being brought in by coaches to his small club team in Tingsryd.

    The Swedish Ice Hockey Association also developed what journalist Uffe Bodin says is known as the “hockey bible for defencemen,” a training manual specifically aimed at teaching players good routes for breakouts and outlet passes.

    ...

    The Swedish hockey federation was kind enough to pass along a copy of the defenceman's bible a couple weeks ago. I obviously can't read Swedish, but the few passages that I translated online were pretty interesting, especially when paired with some of the diagrams.



    “Overview of the modern defenceman's attack actions” reads the headline in this section of the manual. Note the diagram features the word anfall — or attack — in capital letters on the far glass.

    “The diagram shows offensive technical skills performed by the Swedish defencemen during the 2006 Olympics,” it explains. “Overall it describes 30 situations where different variations of these skills are used. By training our young Swedish defenders in these skills, we can prepare them for the challenges they will face.”

    If it looks like something out of a science textbook, that's because it should. Using more scholastic methods to teach hockey has become the norm in Sweden. They did it first with goaltenders and now have implemented similar systems for every position in the game.

    Some Swedish coaches now have considerable educational background, as teaching hockey is tied in with teaching in a more general sense. Pedagogy has become key.

    “(Sweden's success has) always been about the education and having Nick Lidstrom as a role model,” Bodin said.

    “They must be good at handling the puck,” Johansson explained of the philosophy being preached to defencemen in Sweden. “That’s something that’s very difficult when you work with juniors, as I do, because they’re afraid to make a mistake. But we let them do it.

    “(We want) good skaters who are good with the puck. They’ve got to be good at defending, of course, but they’ve got to set up the play very quickly and have good hockey sense.”

    Which relates back to Borgman learning not to clear the puck. And HV71 dominating Sweden's top league last season.
    https://theathletic.com/163600/2017/...nhl-is-headed/

  14. #1114
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    the problem with EJ is health. same deal with the Tanev suggestion.
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    Some of the way we're moving the puck is a direct result of teams adapting. So of course we have to adapt to their new tactics...etc.
    I definitely can see room for improvement from our D, but it's fair to say a lot of teams clog up the middle when they play us.

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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    Wanted to take a rough look at the teams ahead of us in the standings and how their bluelines stood up to ours in this metric. I'm just going to take the team's top 6 in mpg and average out there 7 category average score.

    Tampa:
    Hedman - 84.0
    Stralman - 57.0
    Girardi - 41.3
    Coburn - 19.2
    Dotchin - 22.7
    Sergachev - 53.4
    Avg: 46.3

    Jets:
    Buff - 53.7
    Trouba - 66.5
    Myers - 51.5
    Morrissey - 41.8
    Kulikov - 23.5
    Enstrom - 27.8
    Avg: 44.1

    Preds
    Josi - 84.3
    Ekholm - 51.8
    Subban - 57.7
    Emelin - 29.4
    Bitetto - 33.7
    Irwin - 34.5
    Avg: 48.6

    Blues:
    Pietrangelo - 74.5
    Parayko - 71.5
    Edmundson - 64.5
    J-Bo - 63.7
    Dunn - 66.6
    Gunnar - 28.3
    Avg: 61.5

    Vegas:
    Schmidt - 50.6
    McNabb - 27.4
    Sbisa - 25.3
    Engelland -47.6
    Theodore - 62.6
    Miller - 54.7
    Avg: 44.7

    Caps
    Carlson - 78.1
    Orlov - 76.2
    Niskanen - 70.5
    Orpik - 15.1
    Djoos - 71.7
    Bowey - 44.0
    Avg: 59.3


    Leafs Average: 44.8

    So despite having the best puck moving defender in the entire discussion according to this metric, we still show up in a fight to not be at the bottom of the pile. We really need to swap out a grenade chucker (Polak) for Dermott and for Jake to get back to the form we were hoping to see consistently this season.
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    Legend Volcanologist's Avatar
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    4 guys above 70 is very impressive for the Caps, as is 5 over 60 for the Blues.
    "...And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."

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    Wayward Ditch Pig MindzEye's Avatar
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    Quote Originally Posted by Volcanologist View Post
    4 guys above 70 is very impressive for the Caps, as is 5 over 60 for the Blues.
    Yep....we should be trying to emulate that.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

  19. #1119
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    What about a guy like Girardi at 41.3? This was a guy that was universally hated as a potential signing here. Is he a product of his environment? Rebound? Of course lots of variables at play here.

  20. #1120
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    Default Re: The ****ing 2017-18 Season

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post
    Wanted to take a rough look at the teams ahead of us in the standings and how their bluelines stood up to ours in this metric. I'm just going to take the team's top 6 in mpg and average out there 7 category average score.

    Tampa:
    Hedman - 84.0
    Stralman - 57.0
    Girardi - 41.3
    Coburn - 19.2
    Dotchin - 22.7
    Sergachev - 53.4
    Avg: 46.3

    Jets:
    Buff - 53.7
    Trouba - 66.5
    Myers - 51.5
    Morrissey - 41.8
    Kulikov - 23.5
    Enstrom - 27.8
    Avg: 44.1

    Preds
    Josi - 84.3
    Ekholm - 51.8
    Subban - 57.7
    Emelin - 29.4
    Bitetto - 33.7
    Irwin - 34.5
    Avg: 48.6

    Blues:
    Pietrangelo - 74.5
    Parayko - 71.5
    Edmundson - 64.5
    J-Bo - 63.7
    Dunn - 66.6
    Gunnar - 28.3
    Avg: 61.5

    Vegas:
    Schmidt - 50.6
    McNabb - 27.4
    Sbisa - 25.3
    Engelland -47.6
    Theodore - 62.6
    Miller - 54.7
    Avg: 44.7

    Caps
    Carlson - 78.1
    Orlov - 76.2
    Niskanen - 70.5
    Orpik - 15.1
    Djoos - 71.7
    Bowey - 44.0
    Avg: 59.3


    Leafs Average: 44.8

    So despite having the best puck moving defender in the entire discussion according to this metric, we still show up in a fight to not be at the bottom of the pile. We really need to swap out a grenade chucker (Polak) for Dermott and for Jake to get back to the form we were hoping to see consistently this season.
    Nice work...can you do our division rival Boston?

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