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GDT: Canes @ Canucks 12/5 10:00

That's exactly the problem. Low-danger shots taken from far out on the perimeter or fired mid-range straight to the goalie's jersey/glove with him seeing it all the way.

Almost a version of Mo's "hot goalie, hot goalie" approach of taking a ton of low-danger shots from everywhere and chalking up the non-scoring to yet another "hot goalie". At least the shots have more purpose now.

I honestly don't think it is the system so much as it is just lack of talent to execute it.
 
Elsker said:
That's exactly the problem. Low-danger shots taken from far out on the perimeter or fired mid-range straight to the goalie's jersey/glove with him seeing it all the way.

Almost a version of Mo's "hot goalie, hot goalie" approach of taking a ton of low-danger shots from everywhere and chalking up the non-scoring to yet another "hot goalie". At least the shots have more purpose now.

I honestly don't think it is the system so much as it is just lack of talent to execute it.
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I think it's the system or the guys not following the system. we seem to shoot when we should keep possession and thus end what looked promising with an easy save and a loose puck or face off. Skinner is often the king of this.

not saying we don't need more talent, but honestly our guys look ok other than Ryan being in way over his ability. not cup contender ok, but good enough to expect better results.

when Aho and Turbo are going well, they are doing something different and they get lots of good chances - they are not just taking the same crappy shots and getting lucky.

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Elsker said:
Imagine where we would be if we were producing less shot attempts than we are now, given our weak shooting percentage.

Now couple that with allowing even more shot attempts than we are now, given our sub-average goaltending and weak net-front defensive presence.

So, although more skill is needed both in the O and D departments, I'm glad we have a system that at least pays attention to the odds.
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We wouldn't be ok just taking less crappy shots... they would have to be better shots...

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The shot heat maps for our unblocked shots on net (actual old-fashioned "shots" that goalie either stops or doesn't, so score) are way different than the shot heat maps for all shot attempts taken (corsi), including blocked and missed shots. We tend to take a lot of the latter, which ain't going to score unless there is a big rebound and/or loose puck as a result. And a lot of those blocked or missed shots start out on the perimeter somewhere.

We have much more success when we are shooting down low, around the blue paint area or between/around the circles.

That's the weakness of using corsi as an indicator of scoring. Just because we are taking more attempts (including missing the net and having them blocked) than the other team is attempting is not a predictor of score success since they might be very weak attempts and included the blocked and missed shots.

Corsi is much more like a possession indicator (the old zone time stat that seems to no longer be kept) than it is a score predictor. More shot attempts than the opposition implies more puck possession time, which does marginally improve the odds for success...given talent.
 
Honestly, at this point in the season, I would welcome a moderate level trade by the Canes to bring in a bonafide playmaker. Somebody whos' game is all about setup and making plays. Not gonna fix everything, but would be nice to have one line where we have a guy consistently creative and passing to his mates as well as be able to plug that into our powerplay. To me - this is doable. Even with budget constraints. But this org is about sticking with their cards and rolling with them.
 
Shooting - in the past, when I watched the canes took a long time and telegraphed their shots. The goalie had plenty of time to set.
Are the canes still doing that?
 
If we could combine Staal and Ryan into one guy, wed have a half way decent scoring center. But we are dreck down the middle when it comes to production. To date the canes centermen have a combined 42 points. The D by comparison have 37.
 
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brassbonanza said:
If we could combine Staal and Ryan into one guy, wed have a half way decent scoring center. But we are dreck down the middle when it comes to production.
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Maybe we should press Francis and Brind'Amour back into service until they can fix that. :sarcasm
 
dwind said:
Shooting - in the past, when I watched the canes took a long time and telegraphed their shots. The goalie had plenty of time to set.
Are the canes still doing that?
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Yeah. That happens a lot, especially when the D-men shoot. We do a lot of that shift to the right, flip it at the slot thing. The forwards tend to just blindly bang it on net, and when they do try and pick a corner they miss the target a LOT. I mean, the real issue is a lack of offensive skill and those are just symptoms. We've only got a couple of guys on the whole roster who really shoot the puck well. Everybody else is looking for something greasy.
 
jeffbear said:
Everybody else is looking for something greasy.
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Or they should be, but I think they play like they are coached by a nutritionist and stay away from the grease as much as possible. Occassionally, they forego their diets and we get a dirty goal.

Tonight should be better (but not sure end result is likely to be different)--its a better team and we tend to get more focused for the better teams.
 
Boardwork said:
Or they should be, but I think they play like they are coached by a nutritionist and stay away from the grease as much as possible. Occassionally, they forego their diets and we get a dirty goal.

Tonight should be better (but not sure end result is likely to be different)--its a better team and we tend to get more focused for the better teams.
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Fair point. It's not so much that the majority of Carolina's forwards actually look for something greasy so much as that's what they need to be doing. Again, I think a big chunk of Carolina's offense woes over the last two seasons can be attributed to a team tendency to just bang pucks in the general direction of the goal without regard to placement or what else is going on in the offensive zone at the time. The biggest issue, to me, is a lack of playmakers who think about the play in more depth than ... "ooo ... an open lane, I'll shoot." Aho is one of those guys, and Teravainen and Lindholm can be at times ... but nobody else on this team is thinking more than one step ahead, and you'll note that none of those guys currently play center.
 
Christer said:
Well maybe playing to another system would result in better scoring chances and thus having a better shooting percentage.
I just think we have a case of missmatch when it comes to players and system.
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Look ... bottom line ... this system doesn't work for ANYBODY when they don't have a productive and reliable first line to provide the scoring night in and night out. Detroit has sucked playing this system for going on two years because their first line talent faded with age and attrition. And Toronto sucked playing this system under Babcock that first year until they went out and got a huge infusion of skilled first line guys. You can limit damage playing this way, but unless you have top shelf talent to tip the scales on the scoreboard .... it's just that. Damage limitation.
 
Here's concrete evidence as to why it's not good to use Corsi (all shot attempts, including missed and blocked) as a scoring predictor instead of the possession predictor it was meant to be:

Canes 31st in league for percentage of even strength shot attempts on goal at 49.26%

So not even half of all those league-leading even strength Corsi For shot attempts are on net. Lotta smoke, no fire.

Mind you, not a bad idea to afford yourself more chances than the opposition.

But this well-oiled possession team needs some parts strategically upgraded or changed out to actually do something with that possession advantage. Bit of quality to go with all that quantity.

Extra goal or two per game would be nice.


...best player/coach Reggie Dunlop (Slapshot) voice...Powerplay? Yeah, yeah, we're working on that.


EDIT: Note that data is about a month old, but doubt it has changed much. Just tripped across it in my Favorites.
 
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Elsker said:
...best player/coach Reggie Dunlop (Slapshot) voice...Powerplay? Yeah, yeah, we're working on that.
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I hear Paul Newman's voice in my head saying that roughly two thirds of the time the Canes have a power play.
 
jeffbear said:
Fair point. It's not so much that the majority of Carolina's forwards actually look for something greasy so much as that's what they need to be doing. Again, I think a big chunk of Carolina's offense woes over the last two seasons can be attributed to a team tendency to just bang pucks in the general direction of the goal without regard to placement or what else is going on in the offensive zone at the time. The biggest issue, to me, is a lack of playmakers who think about the play in more depth than ... "ooo ... an open lane, I'll shoot." Aho is one of those guys, and Teravainen and Lindholm can be at times ... but nobody else on this team is thinking more than one step ahead, and you'll note that none of those guys currently play center.
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Indeed. Spot on. Makes for lots of peppering - the stuff all goalies like because 10/10 it gets them in the game, on focus and then they become 'the hot goalie'.
There have been at least 2 times a game where we have taken shots and I, personally would have passed to a clear winger or teammate in the clear. All in all, very little to know creativity and lack of finishers.
 
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