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Thread: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

  1. #861
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post
    It's one of the private players that CGOC has taken a stake in. Website says that they're focusing on the women's cannabis market. 40,000 sq ft facility in Northern Ontario, vertical integration (which is more of a buzzword in Canada than anything else with the branding rules, but it's a buzzword that investors want to hear even if a lot of them don't understand what it's actually supposed to mean).

    "Phase 2" is to expand an additional 200,000 sq ft of growing space (on the same parcel of land near Kirkland Lake they're already on). Have a partnership with a Dutch company (There's the Europe buzzword) called Maripharm.

    Their website hits on every current buzzword in marijuana investing, so either they're a really slick outfit that has been ahead of the curve for a while now and are going public, or they're an also ran Canadian LP trying to say the right things before IPO to drive up stock price so they can get a big ol bought deal to help them expand their production capacity before they get buried and forgotten.

    CEO of Aphria has been pretty vocal in his belief that there will be space in the Canadian cannabis industry to craft grower producing excellent small batch product, so maybe this gang can do that (that's what they claim their Dutch partnership is largely about). I don't have a lot of faith in any small Canadian players who aren't damn close to built out on a legitimately sized growing space doing much in the future though.

    On one hand I'm intrigued because CGOC is a stakeholder. But on the other hand, the private-public arbitrage play is a money maker for these types of firms (CGOC, Quinsam, etc) as long as the company isn't a complete ****ing flopshow right now. Just look at the Medmen IPO.
    Thanks for the detailed update

  2. #862
    The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins. CH1's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by Habsy View Post
    What would you dump money in CH1? Just curious. I have funds sitting in an investment account but canít decide where to invest it. Problem is I already hold the stuff I tend to look at.
    I currently own GOOGL, DIS, NKE, BABA, SPOT, GWPH, TWTR

    I just sold LULU and AAXN but still like them on a dip.

    For something more volatile but nice potential upside, I'd check out emerging markets EEM. I'm looking at that etf. Currently own TUR (Turkey) which is stupid volatile but so far I'm in the green on it.
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  3. #863
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Market flat today but SPOT finally busted thru 170. Quiet monster.
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  4. #864
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Bad wkd for Bitcoin. 15% plunge to a rather significant level.
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  5. #865
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by CH1 View Post
    Bad wkd for Bitcoin. 15% plunge to a rather significant level.
    Gross

    ETH also down with it. I'm still letting my rig chug away as a bit of a side hobby and I still think the future of crypto is bright, but I have no interest in trading the stuff, and with the high cost of equipment in conjunction with the relatively low cost of coins, it's a tough thing to stay interested in these days and a pretty impossible thing to be interested in spending capital on upgrading or expanding a mining operation, and that's before you consider the greasy shit the ASICS makers do with the boxes they make.
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  6. #866
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    For sure, the enthusiasm has waned but you might catch a bounce here. I was tempted but never traded crypto cuz 1) i didn't trust any of the exchanges and 2) don't need to be looking at quotes 24/7.

    Mining is a good side hobby. You mine ETH and BTC?
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  7. #867
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by CH1 View Post
    For sure, the enthusiasm has waned but you might catch a bounce here. I was tempted but never traded crypto cuz 1) i didn't trust any of the exchanges and 2) don't need to be looking at quotes 24/7.

    Mining is a good side hobby. You mine ETH and BTC?
    Used to mine ETH exclusively, decided to hit the easy button and just utilize Nicehash. It basically farms out to whatever coin the market is willing to pay the most for at the time and then pays me out in BTC. I could put the work in to research and mine the algo that is paying out the most at any given time myself, but the returns just aren't there for me to bother putting that much time into it. I probably "lose" ~15% just using nicehash, but I also don't have to worry about holding and transferring some ridiculous shitcoin that was paying out well at the time. BTC is the easiest to just cash out.
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

  8. #868
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    IAN is in full beast mode. This chart is from a few days ago. IAN is now up 168% YTD.

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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    The observers have been predicting that the second half of 2018 would be an interesting time regarding who separates themselves as the "Canopy" of the US MJ market and early returns suggest IAN definitely.
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  10. #870
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post
    The observers have been predicting that the second half of 2018 would be an interesting time regarding who separates themselves as the "Canopy" of the US MJ market and early returns suggest IAN definitely.
    from a chart perspective, the action in IAN is a good reminder that fast moves come from false breakouts/breakdowns

    they had that financing that was met with big selling in the morning but quickly reversed the same day. stock hasn't looked back since.
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  11. #871
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by CH1 View Post
    from a chart perspective, the action in IAN is a good reminder that fast moves come from false breakouts/breakdowns

    they had that financing that was met with big selling in the morning but quickly reversed the same day. stock hasn't looked back since.
    A major learning curve for me earlier on, and I'd imagine for a lot of retail investors is in being able to pick out good financing deals from bad. I've noticed that most finance deals are met with some sort of a sell off, whether the terms are good or not. Some investors just see all dilution as bad dilution I think, and miss how important liquidity is for an early phase start up company (especially one in an industry that can't access normal banking channels)
    The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than is required to produce it.

  12. #872
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post
    A major learning curve for me earlier on, and I'd imagine for a lot of retail investors is in being able to pick out good financing deals from bad. I've noticed that most finance deals are met with some sort of a sell off, whether the terms are good or not. Some investors just see all dilution as bad dilution I think, and miss how important liquidity is for an early phase start up company (especially one in an industry that can't access normal banking channels)
    Honestly, I never got into the weeds of it. I let the stock price dictate my moves. I lost too much coin trying to be "right" or jumping the gun. I figure there's always a ton of people who know more about the inner workings at company ABC than me, and that knowledge will be reflected in the stock price.

    Not too long ago, a dear and respected buddy told me some possible bad news concerning CannaRoyalty. I was a little spooked, but didn't sell one share (it's my biggest pot holding) because the chart told me to hang on. I'm glad I did. The stock is up 25%+ since then.

    Fundamentals for me = picking the right sector or a company in the right space that nobody mentions (ie AAXN, police tech evidence cloud service)
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  13. #873
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by CH1 View Post
    Honestly, I never got into the weeds of it. I let the stock price dictate my moves. I lost too much coin trying to be "right" or jumping the gun. I figure there's always a ton of people who know more about the inner workings at company ABC than me, and that knowledge will be reflected in the stock price.

    Not too long ago, a dear and respected buddy told me some possible bad news concerning CannaRoyalty. I was a little spooked, but didn't sell one share (it's my biggest pot holding) because the chart told me to hang on. I'm glad I did. The stock is up 25%+ since then.
    I agree that short term, nothing beats price action as an indicator. I took an interest in the make ups of these deals because it tells you a lot about how smart money views the company. If you're stuck selling debentures, I don't care if your stock is moving in the right direction right now, you're not viewed as solid as a company moving the same dollar value in stock + warrants or especially half warrants units.



    Fundamentals for me = picking the right sector or a company in the right space that nobody mentions (ie AAXN, police tech evidence cloud service)
    This is the old trader vs investor bit, and I agree entirely. Traditional fundamentals absolutely matter if you're looking at multi year time horizons in the same investment. If that's not you, then none of it matters, only price action matters.
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  14. #874
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post
    I agree that short term, nothing beats price action as an indicator. I took an interest in the make ups of these deals because it tells you a lot about how smart money views the company. If you're stuck selling debentures, I don't care if your stock is moving in the right direction right now, you're not viewed as solid as a company moving the same dollar value in stock + warrants or especially half warrants units.
    100%. Some of these pot deals are ridiculously, over the top bad. I stay away. Just like I stay away from non shareholder friendly stocks like MMEN or companies that spam useless press releases over and over. I'm looking at you LG and ISOL.
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  15. #875
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    So uhhhh...

    - One of the posters on a subreddit I follow for cannabis industry analysis went out to the TGOD facility listed on their website as 70% completed and apparently it's closer to 7% completed, his findings (and pictures) apparently went a bit viral and is largely being credited with the sell off that's occurred the last 2 days.

    - Canopy is burning through 120 million in cash per quarter right now and just announced an offering of 400M worth of "senior" convertible notes. Which is kind of not good.

    So if Canopy is burning that type of cash in advance of legal rec, what are the state of everyone elses books? ****, what must Aurora's look like?
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  16. #876
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    TGOD -- I might buy a flush down tomorrow am
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  17. #877
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by CH1 View Post
    TGOD -- I might buy a flush down tomorrow am
    Yeah, do it while funded capacity is still a metric anyone cares about
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  18. #878
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by MindzEye View Post
    So uhhhh...

    - One of the posters on a subreddit I follow for cannabis industry analysis went out to the TGOD facility listed on their website as 70% completed and apparently it's closer to 7% completed, his findings (and pictures) apparently went a bit viral and is largely being credited with the sell off that's occurred the last 2 days.

    - Canopy is burning through 120 million in cash per quarter right now and just announced an offering of 400M worth of "senior" convertible notes. Which is kind of not good.

    So if Canopy is burning that type of cash in advance of legal rec, what are the state of everyone elses books? ****, what must Aurora's look like?
    8 bn market cap with 40 million in revenues. MJ is a big market, but the black mkt is estimated at 5-6bn annually. currently the market doesn't justify the stock price. i know that it's largely based on long term potential but even then, i think they've overpriced.

  19. #879
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    Quote Originally Posted by mbow30 View Post
    8 bn market cap with 40 million in revenues. MJ is a big market, but the black mkt is estimated at 5-6bn annually. currently the market doesn't justify the stock price. i know that it's largely based on long term potential but even then, i think they've overpriced.
    I guess it depends on what you consider the market to be. I think that when all shakes loose with the various value added business lines(Edibles, pharma, CBD, etc), the market will end up closer to 12-15B just domestically.

    If Canopy can capture enough of that to pull ~1 Billion in EBITDA, I think they're undervalued a bit (I'm assuming that 10-14x multiples will be reasonable when the industry matures)

    But yeah, a lot of future good news is baked into this market cap right now. A whole lot.
    Last edited by MindzEye; 06-14-2018 at 12:41 AM.
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  20. #880
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    Default Re: Hey Nerds: Blockchain

    The great pinko/hippie state of Texas folks:

    Delegates at the Republican Party of Texas convention on Saturday voted to approve platform planks endorsing marijuana decriminalization, medical cannabis and industrial hemp. They are also calling for a change in cannabis’s classification by the federal government.
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