GDT : Oil Change @ Leafs - 7:00 PM SNET-O

Sorry, I was wondering if there was a correlation between teams leading and giving up more shots since the other team should be trying harder to score.

well yeah there is. that's exactly why we use Score-adjusted stats. we adjust each team's shot attempts to league average in the same score situations.

k

I don't know the exact numbers - but you're right that teams perform differently with and without the lead, and at different points in time during the game. This is what are called "score effects".

So every time I post possession numbers, you can assume they are adjusted for these score effects (by people smart enough to do all that work), unless I explicitly say otherwise.

I guess I'm trying to decide where the arbitrary comes in...it always does...and I'm trying to decide a) do I really care about getting outshot? and
b) is there a shot total or margin that I should start worrying about




I say arbitrary, because at some point someone decided the exact hotspots, danger areas, hard plays etc.


And I'm all over the place zeke...I'm asking about the stats in general, and the being outshot is just something else.

I'm nitpicking; Ovechkin's danger area is different than say, Matthews. Four shots from one spot do not mean the same thing all the time.
Ocd

Bleedsblue&white said:

I'm nitpicking; Ovechkin's danger area is different than say, Matthews. Four shots from one spot do not mean the same thing all the time.
Ocd

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You're right, but when you're facing 2400~ shots in a season as a team, the quality of shooter will even out. If Ovechkin or Matthews was taking 2400 shots against you in a season, you're proper ****ed and will probably give up 350+ goals on the season.

MindzEye said:

You're right, but when you're facing 2400~ shots in a season as a team, the quality of shooter will even out. If Ovechkin or Matthews was taking 2400 shots against you in a season, you're proper ****ed and will probably give up 350+ goals on the season.

Click to expand...

yeah the larger the sample size the less noise there should be and vice versa. That's why freaking out about a couple of games vs let's say a month is not wise.

Absolutely, the numbers always seem to work themselves out.

I'm mostly curious about how exactly numbers are reached.