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GDT: Canes vs Jets 3/4 @ 7:00 pm

jeffbear

jeffbear

Mod Squad
Staff member
Couple of curveballs here ... first, since this is a Sunday game I'm going ahead and starting the thread early just to ensure that we have one in a semi timely manner. Second, yes. This is a Sunday game at 7:00 in the evening, the first and only such beast of the season.

Expect ... I dunno, but I assume Ward in net and the same lines we've seen in the last two games. That seems to be working and Winnipeg presents no compelling matchup reasons to change things up. Staal will draw the defensive assignment on their big line and everybody else will try and generate some scoring.

Carry on with your weekends, but special props to Kurtzie for reminding me to get tickets to the Bowie exhibit in Brooklyn next week ahead of time. Done deal.
 
No lineup changes at the morning skate per Michael Smith tweet. Ward gets his 3rd start in a row.

McGinn-Staal-Williams
Aho-Lindholm-Teravainen
Skinner-Wallmark-Di Giuseppe
Rask-Ryan-Stempniak

Slavin-Faulk
Hanifin-Pesce
Fleury-van Riemsdyk

Ward
Darling
 
TheBigKahuna said:
Wards 3rd start says someone has bought into the "we still have a chance" idea.
Click to expand...

Well, we are in the last wildcard spot as of this morning...we'll see how the day plays out and whether we are after 10 o'clock tonight. Once again, the Canes are not in control of their destiny. We are relying on Columbus and Florida as much as we are relying on this team to decide if there will be a post season...
 
As much as I enjoy seeing this team win, and want them to succeed, the skeptic in me has seen this movie several times.

This roster and staff are not playoff material.
 
The only team the Canes are fully not in control of their own destiny against is Florida. We have the head to head tiebreaker against Columbus which is the difference at the moment.

But yeah...safe to assume the Canes are going to not go 14-3 over the final 17 games.
 
Here's the row (by the numbers) that must be hoed to reach the playoffs based on what I am seeing.

There is a clear difference between the conferences in where the playoff cut line will be:
Point Projections Over the Past Fortnight (per @IneffectiveMath)

Would take 95 to knock out Anaheim but only 90 to displace Florida. Canes currently projecting 87.8 for 10th in the East. But just look at what two or three more points would yield...less if Florida stumbles.

So what would it take to get to 90? 10-6-1 would do it, with a just better than 50/50 chance of making it per SportsClubStats Playoff Chances

And here's the remaining schedule with current playoff teams (including us!) shown in red (from @CanesReport).

There are 8 red teams on the remaining schedule and we can only lose 7 of the remaining 17 games, with one of those an OT loss. So need to win one we shouldn't, say at home. And win all 9 of the non-playoff team matchups.

Plus, of course, any and all points we can since 92 might bump New Jersey for WC1.

And for every non-playoff team game we blow we will need another shouldn't-win-this-one upset.

It's doable. About 50/50, like SportsStatsClub says. But it could happen.
 
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TheBigKahuna said:
As much as I enjoy seeing this team win, and want them to succeed, the skeptic in me has seen this movie several times.

This roster and staff are not playoff material.
Click to expand...

I do not disagree at all, but if they somehow figure out a way to grind out a playoff spot, then they'll well and truly deserve it. It's not the Hurricanes fault that Columbus, the Rangers and the Islanders all decided to suck with much better rosters.
 
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Ugly game so far in the first.

Tied it with a TT fortunate bounce
 
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Watching this game last night, I was impressed with the hustle and physicality of the Jets. They beat the livin' crap out of us along the boards in all 3 periods. We were outplayed, out-hustled and pushed around like a bunch of sock puppets. That the game was as close as it was is in itself a miracle. We passed when we should have shot and our passes were horrible most of the game. Still, we had many chances, but the sorry story of this team is its inability to finish.
 
In watching the game, it was clear why they are a playoff team-- and why we are not. The Jets were big, physical and fast and played with a nasty edge. Our passing was as bad as I've seen it. A lot of those bad passes were just the result of the pressure and speed of the Jets. Hellebuyck, Myers, Byfuglien, Schiefele, Laine and Wheeler are just big boys. Just compare the stats between the two teams-- assists, +/-, the scoring they generate, their goalies save percentages...
 
Agreed, the game wasn't as close as the score hinted at. What I saw, end of the 2nd and most of the 3rd, the Canes looked terrible.

Is the playoff coach a pumpkin yet? Can Darling sink or swim now?

5 points behind the Devils. You're not catching them. And 1 point behind Florida, who has 3 games in hand. The fat lady is warming up. I think the Germans have bombed Pearl Harbor.
 
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I thought the Canes worked hard - they're clearly not as good as the Jets - which is kind of the issue - you can work hard, but you have to catch a lot of breaks to beat a better team that's also playing hard. Also why it's hard to see this team going anyplace in the playoffs even if they were to make it.

I don't think we're good enough to go anywhere in the playoffs, and I don't think we're good enough to get in the playoffs no matter how hard they play, even if Cam holds up.
 
Look ... Carolina might have worked hard, but they got pushed around all night and did absolutely nothing about it. Aho got cross checked in the face, Skinner took a beating, McGinn got run about 5 five times and I thought poor Ryan was going to get killed at one point. And ... nothing. Hard work will get you pretty far in this league ... but getting pushed around, knocked off the puck and generally abused all night will undo most of that. The Canes aren't even as small as they played last night, but you HAVE to finish your checks against Mo's teams. HAVE to.

Frankly, that was a pitiful display last night.
 
I gotta give credit where it's due; Cam might end up flaming out here at the end but at his age the dude has been hanging in there pretty well. I thought he played well last night and of course the glove side has always been his bugaboo, but it's amazing how much quicker and responsive he is as opposed to Darling. If Cam had been in the situation this year that most anticipated (as a backup), he'd probably be looking like a pretty good bargain.
Yea, working hard only gets you so far. When you've folks like Ryan, PDG, Stemper, Rask, and others being "rag dolled" on the boards, you're in big trouble. Forsland talks about Rask last night and the fact that he just aint getting it done and the off season will be critical for him to find his game again.
cmon3 said:
I thought the Canes worked hard - they're clearly not as good as the Jets - which is kind of the issue - you can work hard, but you have to catch a lot of breaks to beat a better team that's also playing hard. Also why it's hard to see this team going anyplace in the playoffs even if they were to make it.

I don't think we're good enough to go anywhere in the playoffs, and I don't think we're good enough to get in the playoffs no matter how hard they play, even if Cam holds up.
Click to expand...
 
jeffbear said:
Look ... Carolina might have worked hard, but they got pushed around all night and did absolutely nothing about it. Aho got cross checked in the face, Skinner took a beating, McGinn got run about 5 five times and I thought poor Ryan was going to get killed at one point. And ... nothing. Hard work will get you pretty far in this league ... but getting pushed around, knocked off the puck and generally abused all night will undo most of that. The Canes aren't even as small as they played last night, but you HAVE to finish your checks against Mo's teams. HAVE to.

Frankly, that was a pitiful display last night.
Click to expand...

The Jets have 3 players under 6' tall and only 1, Mathieu Perreault played last night. The Canes have 5 such players and they were bunched on 2 lines. Skinner/Ryan/Stempniak (Peters just can't help himself, can he?) and Aho/Teravainen, with Lindholm who is listed at 6'1". For all his bravado, McGinn is listed at 6'0". Among their forwards Armia, Laine, Scheifele and Wheeler are all 6'3" or taller, we have Staal.
 
jeffbear said:
Look ... Carolina might have worked hard, but they got pushed around all night and did absolutely nothing about it. Aho got cross checked in the face, Skinner took a beating, McGinn got run about 5 five times and I thought poor Ryan was going to get killed at one point. And ... nothing. Hard work will get you pretty far in this league ... but getting pushed around, knocked off the puck and generally abused all night will undo most of that. The Canes aren't even as small as they played last night, but you HAVE to finish your checks against Mo's teams. HAVE to.

Frankly, that was a pitiful display last night.
Click to expand...

How many years of getting pushed around with no changes to the roster to address that need? How many years of Francis waxing on about all the size coming up through the ranks yet he has not made ONE roster move or call up to address that need? I'm so sick and tired of the same tiresome issues with this team not being addressed yet every year here we are, every year it's the same old garbage. How many free passes does this management get before it's time to do things radically differently around this team?

:banghead:
 
Yes, the Canes worked hard and stayed in the game as a result, but the Canes were no match for what Winnipeg offered-- size, speed, grit, skills, experience...
 
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