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The ****ing Offseason Thread 2018

Considering that it cost the Leafs a 6th round pick and a contract dump to acquire Pickard, and that he'd almost certainly be put on waivers (along with one of McElhinney or Sparks) at the end of training camp if he's not traded, I wouldn't expect to get much of anything tangible in return for him, if they manage to find a taker at all.
 
Jonas Siegel published a pretty lengthy 1-on-1 interview with Matthews in the Athletic today. Some highlights:

on playoffs...

AM: I definitely didn’t play up to my expectations, but also like you said, I don’t think the numbers reflected everything. There’s certain situations that I would’ve liked a little bit more. But obviously that’s what I’m paid to do: I’m paid to put up numbers, score goals, and be a leader on the team. And the numbers obviously didn’t reflect that and that’s frustrating for myself. But at the same time, I don’t think it really shows the whole story.
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on offseason workouts

AM: I definitely think I can be better in a lot of areas. I worked a lot this summer on just straight-ahead speed, my stride mechanics. I worked with Barb (Underhill) a little bit when I was here during the summer and just kind of dialed in on that stuff and just the little things (like) creating separation on the ice. And working with Darryl is always fun, just because you work on so many different things that can translate into a game. So there’s tons of things that you can look back on and you want to improve on. For myself, like I want to have more assists than I have goals, and obviously that hasn’t been the case the last two years.
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on signing Tavares

AM: I was at home. Actually, I was sleeping and Dubas called me and kind of woke me up. I got up and I was trying to make it seem like I’d been up for like three hours (laughs). He just called me and told me we signed John and obviously I was ecstatic. I honestly couldn’t believe it. I didn’t know what was going on, what was going to happen. I knew they were happy about the presentation to him (during the interview period) and everything. Once they signed him and they said they were going to announce it in a couple hours I was ecstatic. I called my Dad. I think the whole city of Toronto pretty much erupted. Pretty special.
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re captaincy

AM: Yeah, I would tell them yeah. I’d tell them I’d feel ready. I don’t know what they’re thinking about doing, what they want to do. Obviously John has been the captain in New York for a while. So I don’t know what they’re thinking or what their whole ideal situation is for that. But I don’t think it really changes much, whether you have a letter or not, for myself or anybody. I go lead by example, on the ice, off the ice, and being a good teammate is a big part of that, too.
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AM: I definitely didn’t play up to my expectations, but also like you said, I don’t think the numbers reflected everything. There’s certain situations that I would’ve liked a little bit more. But obviously that’s what I’m paid to do: I’m paid to put up numbers, score goals, and be a leader on the team. And the numbers obviously didn’t reflect that and that’s frustrating for myself. But at the same time, I don’t think it really shows the whole story.
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I haven't pulled punches with AM's performance in the playoffs - because if he scores like he should, we win that series. That's on him.

But I was pleasantly surprised when I looked at the numbers that despite getting the bulk of the bergeron line matchups, Matthews did actually perform pretty well - 49.6cf% (+4.1), 53.2xgf% (+5.3) at 5v5.

I don't know why I hadn't looked into the playoff numbers much before this, but they're not really surprising:

Even Strength, in order of quality of competition


Marleau A+ qoc, 46.9cf% (+0.1), 47.1xgf% (-3.7)
Matthews A+ qoc, 49.2cf% (+3.6), 52.9xgf% (+5.1)
Marner A+ qoc, 45.1cf% (-2.4), 49.8xgf% (+0.1)

Hyman A+ qoc, 45.4cf% (-2.0), 52.6xgf% (+4.2)
Plekanec A qoc, 35.8cf% (-14.7), 41.7xgf% (-10.1)
Nylander A qoc, 50.8cf% (+5.4), 52.3xgf% (+3.3)

Kadri B+ qoc, 47.5cf% (+10.9), 46.8xgf% (+1.3)
Brown B qoc, 49.3cf% (+3.3), 51.2xgf% (+1.6)
Johnsson C+ qoc, 44.2cf% (-6.0), 52.7xgf% (+1.8)

Kapanen C+ qoc, 48.2cf% (+1.6), 52.5xgf% (+3.4)
VanRyk C qoc, 48.1cf% (+1.6), 41.7xgf% (-10.5)
Bozak C qoc, 51.3cf% (+5.9), 48.8xgf% (-2.2)

Moore C+ qoc, 55.5cf% (-0.1), 67.1xgf% (+14.0)
Komarov C- qoc, 31.7cf% (-13.7), 47.9xgf% (+1.0)

Matthews was far and away our best player, really.


AM: Yeah, I would tell them yeah. I’d tell them I’d feel ready.
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damn straight, kiddo.
 
This was another exchange in that Matthews interview that jumped off the page for me:



Siegel: I was reading an article about Kevin Durant and he was talking about his inspiration. He was talking about how he wasn’t just driven by titles, he said he was driven by ‘individual growth.’ I just wondered what drives you? What’s pushing you?

AM: I think it’s a little bit of both. I think today in sports you’re measured by winning and typically the best players win. You look at all the sports – Kevin Durant, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, guys like that, Drew Doughty. Those are the guys that are top players in the world and those are the guys that are typically winning. So I think that’s kind of what drives you. And then the other part, for myself individually, I want to be the best player in the world. That’s something that drives you every day, just because everybody’s competitive, everybody wants to be the best. But at the same time, Sidney Crosby is the best player in the world because he wins and because he puts up incredible numbers. So I think it’s a little bit of both. But like I said, I think players are really measured on championships nowadays and I think that’s the way it should be.

Siegel: But so do you measure yourself against Crosby and Connor McDavid?

AM: Yeah, absolutely. I want to be on their level. I believe I am and that I can be.
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zeke said:
I haven't pulled punches with AM's performance in the playoffs - because if he scores like he should, we win that series. That's on him.

But I was pleasantly surprised when I looked at the numbers that despite getting the bulk of the bergeron line matchups, Matthews did actually perform pretty well - 49.6cf% (+4.1), 53.2xgf% (+5.3) at 5v5.

I don't know why I hadn't looked into the playoff numbers much before this, but they're not really surprising:

Even Strength, in order of quality of competition


Marleau A+ qoc, 46.9cf% (+0.1), 47.1xgf% (-3.7)
Matthews A+ qoc, 49.2cf% (+3.6), 52.9xgf% (+5.1)
Marner A+ qoc, 45.1cf% (-2.4), 49.8xgf% (+0.1)

Hyman A+ qoc, 45.4cf% (-2.0), 52.6xgf% (+4.2)
Plekanec A qoc, 35.8cf% (-14.7), 41.7xgf% (-10.1)
Nylander A qoc, 50.8cf% (+5.4), 52.3xgf% (+3.3)

Kadri B+ qoc, 47.5cf% (+10.9), 46.8xgf% (+1.3)
Brown B qoc, 49.3cf% (+3.3), 51.2xgf% (+1.6)
Johnsson C+ qoc, 44.2cf% (-6.0), 52.7xgf% (+1.8)

Kapanen C+ qoc, 48.2cf% (+1.6), 52.5xgf% (+3.4)
VanRyk C qoc, 48.1cf% (+1.6), 41.7xgf% (-10.5)
Bozak C qoc, 51.3cf% (+5.9), 48.8xgf% (-2.2)

Moore C+ qoc, 55.5cf% (-0.1), 67.1xgf% (+14.0)
Komarov C- qoc, 31.7cf% (-13.7), 47.9xgf% (+1.0)

Matthews was far and away our best player, really.




damn straight, kiddo.
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You can’t watch that series with what Marner did and look at these silly numbers and say Matthews was our best player.
 
This is where #FancyStats loses me sometimes.

I generally believe in their value over the eye test, but in this case, my "eye test" told me during that series that Matthews was pretty much invisible and ineffective for the vast majority of that series. So when the stats are so diametrically opposed to that opinion that they're saying that Matthews was in fact "far and away our best player in that series", I'm inclined to call horseshit on the stats.

Either they're incomplete, or they're not being interpreted properly.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
You can’t watch that series with what Marner did and look at these silly numbers and say Matthews was our best player.
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Stats are simply a tool to use for analysis . Problem with sports is too many moving parts from game to game and shift to shift .
 
The problem with looking at it that was is xGF are kind of irrelevant in a 7 game series. Its nice to know if you played that series 10 more times, Auston would have won more of those matchups than he lost, but there is not much solace in that when you are golfing. At the end of the day in the playoffs actual productions matters more if you want to keep playing.

So when you look at what actually happened and Marner has 3.03 P1/60 and a 66.7 GF% and Matthews has 1.15 p1/60 and a 33.3 GF% it paints a different picture.

That said Matthews wasn't bad. But he didn't produce the results we need him to produce to win in the playoffs. He has to be able to go up against Chara every shift and win those matchups. The numbers say he should though.
 
simply throwing up your hands and ignoring situations where the numbers clearly don't match what happened on the ice is pretty unscientific.
 
I like how Zeke has said for months, and even starts out by saying today, that Matthews was bad in that series and lost it for us. Correctly so, mind you. But then looks at these dumb numbers for two minutes and suddenly the endless hours of watching the games, the clips after the games, thinking and discussing and poring over every little detail, all of that goes straight out the window. Now he thinks the exact OPPOSITE of what he has for months, that Matthews was actually our best player in that series, and wasn't invisible and basically the goat. All hail the mighty stats.
 
Oh well, Tampa probably would have crushed us anyways after that type of a series anyways guys. We took a huge bite out of Washington a year ago, and we took a huge bite out of Boston. It was a great series.

What I really hated about this last series was how ****ing lame we came out in the third period. And I BLAME Babcock and his coaches for that entirely.

One goal lead in someone elses barn and you come out protecting it? Totally lame.

Anyways, I love the way Washington plays and I am satisfied they won the Cup. Orlov, Wilson, Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, awesome NHLers.

Now lets win one for Tavares and Rielly. And Naz....
 
LeafGm said:
This is where #FancyStats loses me sometimes.

I generally believe in their value over the eye test, but in this case, my "eye test" told me during that series that Matthews was pretty much invisible and ineffective for the vast majority of that series. So when the stats are so diametrically opposed to that opinion that they're saying that Matthews was in fact "far and away our best player in that series", I'm inclined to call horseshit on the stats.

Either they're incomplete, or they're not being interpreted properly.
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My question is interpreting these fancy stats .

How are they related to the other 5 players on the ice .

For example Morgan is having a good game but his D partner coughs up 2 bad passes leading to goals or Freddie has a bad night and shits the bed .

Or Kadri sets up 3 gifts but his winger cant hit the back of a barn and the puck goes the other way on one play and a miscue at center results in a breakaway goal .
 
These stats are pretty ****ing worthless when they change your locked-in thinking for months about a player being bad and costing you the series, to suddenly being your best player in the series by a longshot.

If it wasn't so annoying to see stuff like this, it'd be comical.
 
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