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The ****ing Offseason Thread 2018

number17 said:
So even IF Tavares is Kessel, it doesn't make his contract a bad contract compared to Kessel's. PIT got a VERY GOOD DEAL on Kessel at our expense, we were in a teardown mode and we sold Kessel under-value. It doesn't mean we should wait for the next Kessel and pass on Tavares.
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That's actually exactly what it means. Don't throw elite money at non elite players. Kessel is a very good offensive player and helped put them over the top, but Pittsburgh already had their elite players in house and under contract.

Normally Kessel would be a $8M player, and then throw in the fact Tavares is a C, and a good 2-way C too, and throw in inflation from the time Kessel got his deal to 2018's UFA market.
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I'm not arguing that Tavares isn't worth the UFA deal he's about to get from someone. I'm arguing that he's not worth it to us. Just like Kessel was very much worth 8 million dollars a year to us, but wasn't worth that to Pittsburgh.

Here's why Tavares isn't worth 11+ to us:

2016-2018

Tavares: 1.93 P/60, 1.44 P1/60
Marner: 2.06 P/60, 1.52 P1/60
Nylander: 2.04 P/60, 1.46 P1/60
Kadri: 1.93 P/60, 1.43 P1/60

This is the level of hockey player we'd be adding.

For that kind of money, this is what we should be getting:

2016-18
Auston Matthews: 2.48 P/60 , 2.22 P1/60



If we're afraid to make a fair offer to top end FAs in the NHL but insist on waiting for "deals" then it will be very difficult to put together a championship team within the window of opportunity.
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The idea that we need to do away with worrying about cap management on "top end" free agents is silly. Maybe the easiest way to blow up our window is to be lax with cap management. Especially when a big chunk of what we'd be paying for in this case is reputation.

I don't disagree with making a big splashy move to add elite talent to the team...if this was Erik Karlsson we were talking about, sign me the **** up. I've yet to see anyone make a real argument as to why Tavares is that guy though other than "he's awesome", etc. It's all been reputation/narrative based for why he's worth what he's likely to get and I just don't see it. I don't see anything in his history that suggests his intangibles are worth a massive premium over his production (which is very good, but as I've shown is in line with guys we already have in house for half, or less, than he's set to make).
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
That Flyers idea in the athletic is smrt.

Frankly, the Leafs should be taking advantage of any team trying to free up cap space in a hurry to make a run at Tavares, rather than make a Tavares run themselves.
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yah, count me on board the 'use our capspace to absorb a bad contract and recoup assets' team.

UFA market is where the biggest mistakes are made each year.
 
MindzEye said:
That's actually exactly what it means. Don't throw elite money at non elite players. Kessel is a very good offensive player and helped put them over the top, but Pittsburgh already had their elite players in house and under contract.



I'm not arguing that Tavares isn't worth the UFA deal he's about to get from someone. I'm arguing that he's not worth it to us. Just like Kessel was very much worth 8 million dollars a year to us, but wasn't worth that to Pittsburgh.

Here's why Tavares isn't worth 11+ to us:

2016-2018

Tavares: 1.93 P/60, 1.44 P1/60
Marner: 2.06 P/60, 1.52 P1/60
Nylander: 2.04 P/60, 1.46 P1/60
Kadri: 1.93 P/60, 1.43 P1/60


.
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Wow. Didn't realize our non-Matthews big three produced like that.

Of course, is it better to have four guys producing like that than three? Yes.

However, salary cap management would suggest a) Tavares is not worth what he will receive as a UFA; and b) given our ability to score up front, maybe we should allocate those resources to other more pressing needs.
 
I agree I wouldn't pay Tavares $11 mill. Nor would I pay Carlson $9+ mill.

I would go after both though. The Leafs can't be the highest bidders.
 
Wayward DP said:
Wow. Didn't realize our non-Matthews big three produced like that.

Of course, is it better to have four guys producing like that than three? Yes.

However, salary cap management would suggest a) Tavares is not worth what he will receive as a UFA; and b) given our ability to score up front, maybe we should allocate those resources to other more pressing needs.
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I would like to expand that quick analysis on the 4 players as well...so in before "but maybe Tavares is incredible on the PP, you only showed his 5 on 5 numbers"

Same time frame, 2016-2018 (so the last 2 seasons)

Powerplay

Tavares: 5.41 P/60, 3.94 P1/60
Marner: 7.49 P/60, 5.16 P1/60
Nylander: 6.33 P/60, 5.27 P1/60
Kadri: 6.59 P/60, 5.57 P1/60


and in again before "he would have so much more talent to play with here". This was the powerplay unit Tavares played on:

Tavares
Barzal
Bailey
Lee
Leddy

That's a pretty good group of skill players.
 
leafman101 said:
I agree I wouldn't pay Tavares $11 mill. Nor would I pay Carlson $9+ mill.
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Agreed. I brought up Carlson before he decided to turn into a 27 mpg pimp in these playoffs. I was comfortable that he was going to be in the 7.5 range (which is a top 5ish cap hit for a defender). Excellent playoff performances tend to inflate UFA contracts, so we'll see.

I would go after both though. The Leafs can't be the highest bidders.
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I'm cool with offering a deal to Tavares, but I'd use our rumoured run at Stamkos to be our guide. We allegedly offered Stamkos 10M x 7. Stamkos > Tavares, and our offer should reflect that imo. If JT wants to leave money on the table to come to Toronto for 9-9.5 million, I won't love it (for reasons stated...I don't see him as being any better than the kids and Kadri), but okay. Same with Carlson...solves a massive problem we have, and for 8 million...okay. For anything more? Nah man.
 
I don't know how anyone could look at those Tavares numbers and think he's worth a big UFA contract to this team. Great work, ME.
 
I mentioned a few weeks ago I thought Tavares' numbers in his career was a wee bit disappointing and no one agreed then. If you consider the hype, numbers, ETC, I did expect better offensive numbers from him in his career.
His skating is a big concern going forward as he ages.
 
I keep hearing Chicago is going to try and move heaven and earth to get Tavares.

The baseball president wants to make a splash...
 
JackBurton said:
It's over. They need to accept that.
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I don't disagree, but i suspect they do.

Losing Corey Crawford is a fair excuse for the disaster season they had, but even with him healthy they are probably in that wild card range, not contender range.

They need to accept that Toews, Keith and especially Seabrook are all on the decline, and one of them is borderline unplayable.
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
I keep hearing Chicago is going to try and move heaven and earth to get Tavares.

The baseball president wants to make a splash...
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So in this comment, is heaven Toews and earth Seabrook? Cause I'm pretty sure they're not going to fit him in otherwise.
 
UWHabs said:
So in this comment, is heaven Toews and earth Seabrook? Cause I'm pretty sure they're not going to fit him in otherwise.
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They have about 8-10M to spend this offseason, and can potentially clear more by moving Anisimov or Hossa's deal, and they have a lot of AHL talent and kids locked in cheap.

It's not impossible they got hard at one FA.
 
They only have like 3.5M coming off the books. That will be eaten up by raises to their RFAs. I think you're high if you think they'll be able to make a competitive offer for Tavares, dumping Hossa and Arty's contracts notwithstanding. If you sign Tavares for 10M, how are you giving Schmaltz or potentially Sikura a longterm deal when their ELCs are up next year?
 
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