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The ****ing Offseason Thread 2018

Most wins/points in a season, Andersen beats the single season wins record with 38.

You'd think the coach would get a little credit.
 
that's a mixed bag of names there with a number of different contexts...but it's not really if he can that I'm wondering. of course he can.

You think the difference between him looking like a fringe top 10 defender in the league against elite competition all night, all year and not is a couple extra shifts against lesser competition?



I'd like to see him play another year at the level he was at last season before I decide where he ranks. if that's who he is going forward, then he should be playing more than 21:30 this season.

but really, I was thinking more of our other 3 22 minute defencemen, none of whom should be playing that much.

I'd argue that Gardiner should be playing more and the other two way less, but okay.

I think our easiest and best bang for the buck improvement is to ensure we have a very good 3rd pairing next season. if we can't bolster the top 2, then at least making sure we have a 5/6 unit that can soak up more minutes would pay off in a number of a ways. Polak out is a great start. giving Dermott another 2 or more minutes would be another good step.

This I agree with sort of. Dermott should be worked into a top 4 role by the all star break imo. I get not throwing him into it immediately, but he's better, a lot better than either Zaitsev or Hainsey, side of the ice be damned. Ease him in with (expanded, as you've said) 3rd pairing usage but if he looks like he's handling it well in the first 4-6 weeks of the season, up the lineup he goes for a taste of big boy minutes and usage.
 
You think the difference between him looking like a fringe top 10 defender in the league against elite competition all night, all year and not is a couple extra shifts against lesser competition?

no, I'm saying he'll have to play more than 1 year at that level before I say "ok, this is who he is"

I'd argue that Gardiner should be playing more and the other two way less, but okay.

If nothing else changes, then yes. but I've seen enough unevenness from Gardiner that I'd rather move him.

This I agree with sort of. Dermott should be worked into a top 4 role by the all star break imo. I get not throwing him into it immediately, but he's better, a lot better than either Zaitsev or Hainsey, side of the ice be damned. Ease him in with (expanded, as you've said) 3rd pairing usage but if he looks like he's handling it well in the first 4-6 weeks of the season, up the lineup he goes for a taste of big boy minutes and usage.

yeah exactly, the idea is he replaces bipolar Gardiner. maybe not immediately, but hopefully by the end of the season so we aren't tempted to throw big money at Jake.
 
no, I'm saying he'll have to play more than 1 year at that level before I say "ok, this is who he is"

There's a really good argument for last year being his second year at that level. Everything he did last year, he more or less replicated whenever he was away from Zaitsev in 2016-17. Zaitsev has a bad habit of dragging good partners down. Rielly took a step forward last year, but the step was from fringe #1 to legit #1 imo. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes another step this year as well. Still only 24. Of all U-25 defenders, there's really only 1-2 that are arguably better than is. Odds are, he continues improving from here.



If nothing else changes, then yes. but I've seen enough unevenness from Gardiner that I'd rather move him.

I generally agree with moving Gardiner as well, but that's looking less likely the deeper into the summer we get. If he's here this year, we may as well lean on him. He's a legitimately decent #2-3 defender



yeah exactly, the idea is he replaces bipolar Gardiner. maybe not immediately, but hopefully by the end of the season so we aren't tempted to throw big money at Jake.

I actually wouldn't mind us trying Rielly-Jake as a 23-24 mpg top pairing, and sliding Dermott into a 19-20mpg 2nd pairing role with whichever of Zaitsev or Hainsey is playing the best. But yeah, either way we need to know if Dermott is ready for big boy minutes by the end of the year. He replaces Jake pretty seamlessly if he's ready.
 
I'd like to see some of our star players on the PK. Boston does this with Bergeron/Marchand very nicely.
 
Rielly

15/16 (21): ES A+ qoc, .76p/60, .44p1/60, 49.1cf%, -2.3cfrel, 47.1xgf%, -3.6xgfrel / PP 2.89p/60, 0.83p1/60
16/17 (22): ES A qoc, .90p/60, .69p1/60, 51.0cf%, +0.3cfrel, 50.1xgf%, -1.4xgfrel / PP 4.16p/60, 2.50p1/60
17/18 (23): ES A qoc, 1.04p/60, .82p1/60, 51.5cf%, +1.8cfrel, 50.5xgf%, -0.5xgfrel / PP 8.82p/60, 3.31p1/60

His age 21 season he was really pushed into the deepend on an intentionally tanking team and wasn't great....but, he actually wasn't awful considering his quality of competition - hose kinds of numbers aren't worse than the average for guys who face that kind of competition.

His age 22 season was very good. Excellent numbers across the board against top competition. At this point he is already easily worthy of #1 dman minutes. He'd have already been getting 24-25 minutes under a different coach.

His age 23 season he stepped right up into the elite. An unquestioned, unarguable, top end #1 dman performance. Could easily have been playing in the high 20s in minutes.

In fact, last year for one brief moment Babs actually finally took the leash off for one epic 5 game span:

Rielly: 5gms, 25:39mpg, ES 1.20p/60, 1.20p1/60, 58.0cf% (+10.9rel), 60.1xgf% (+25.5rel)

Absolute unfettered dominance. Elite of elite of elite.

But, Rielly made 2 crucial late game mistakes that cost us wins. And instead of treating that as a normal learning experience for a kid in a new role, Babs immediately shut down the experiment and went right back to barely playing him.
 
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I actually wouldn't mind us trying Rielly-Jake as a 23-24 mpg top pairing, and sliding Dermott into a 19-20mpg 2nd pairing role with whichever of Zaitsev or Hainsey is playing the best. But yeah, either way we need to know if Dermott is ready for big boy minutes by the end of the year. He replaces Jake pretty seamlessly if he's ready.
At this point, now that it's becoming apparent that a top-pairing RHD isn't likely to fall from the sky this summer and skate alongside Rielly for this coming season, a Rielly-Gardiner #1 pairing does seem to be our best option at this point. They've played together a bunch of times before, and have done extremely well in short samples. It'd help alleviate the log-jam at LHD, and avoid giving first-pairing minutes to a defenseman that's really not suited for it (Zaitsev, Hainsey). And after that top-pairing, you could easily slot every defenseman into their natural positions.

You'd start with:

Rielly - Gardiner
Dermott - XXXX
XXXX - XXXX


...with these guys having a free-for-all for the remaining positions:

LHD/RHD

Ron Hainsey

LHD

Andreas Borgman
Callen Rosen
Martin Marincin (ugh...hopefully not)

RHD

Nikita Zaitsev
Justin Holl
Connor Carrick
Igor Ozhiganov


Doing this would also potentially allow you to have a much more even split between the 2nd & 3rd pairs in terms of ice-time, and then if Dermott really starts taking off and you find him a partner he really meshes with, you could start giving more and more responsibility to his pairing.


I'd like to see some of our star players on the PK. Boston does this with Bergeron/Marchand very nicely.
I like this idea too. And it's one that Pat Quinn used to employ with great success when he was in Toronto. Quinn still did give PK minutes to pluggers & 4th line guys, but he also mixed in his stars too. Sundin & Mogilny, for example, averaged about 1:30 of short-handed ice-time per game during their time as Leafs under Quinn's watch.

And it's an idea that makes all the more sense with the amount of forward depth Toronto has.
 
Only problem with that is Gardiner has struggled the more you increase his competition. He is probably best suited for the JVR role, where you try to avoid the toughest matchups and let him dominate.

I think Dermott might ultimately be the guy who takes on the tougher minutes. Babs was never shy to test Rielly, as zeke showed above, so I don't think age is a factor there. Demott will be 22 this year. Plus Dermott has actually played the right side. Wouldn't be a shocker if he was clearly the Leafs 2nd best dman by the end of the year.

Then you can slide Hainsey on the third pair so you don't have to shelter it and it can share the load with the 2nd pair. Then you have Gardiner-Zaitsev and Hainsey playing some easier minutes than last year.

Rielly-Dermott
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Carrick/Holl or Borgman-Hainsey
 
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My only counter point there is that Gardiner has never had a partner like Rielly when facing higher levels of competition. His most recent attempt at elite level usage was with Zaitsev on his right side, which is an obvious problem against that usage.

If paired with Rielly, he wouldn't have to be the water carrier on an elite usage pair, which I agree he hasn't handled well in the past.

I also agree that Dermott is that guy at some point, I just don't know if a team that appears to be a legit contender on paper should be banking on that. He could take a step forward in his development and still not be that guy yet.
 
Good point. Playing with Rielly could bring out the best in him.

Either way there is no perfect solution as the d is currently constructed, so may as well try it all.
 
Below is a list of Jake Gardiner's most frequent defense partners in the Mike Babcock era.

The percentage is the portion of his total five-on-five ice-time he spent with them in each of the past three years:

2017/18:

Nikita Zaitsev - 55%
Connor Carrick - 11%
Roman Polak - 11%

2016/17:

Connor Carrick - 47%
Nikita Zaitsev - 21%
Roman Polak - 14%

2015/16:

Dion Phaneuf - 44%
Frankie Corrado - 14%
Roman Polak - 12%
Connor Carrick - 10%


...so, the facts definitely seem to support the notion that Babcock has largely used Gardiner to prop up inferior and/or struggling defense partners.

It would be interesting to see what happens if he's with a partner that can prop him up for a change.

And while I'm a huge believer in Dermott, I don't like the idea of throwing a 21 year-old defenseman with 44 NHL games under his belt into a top-pairing role at the start of next season. I'd much rather we take advantage of the fact that we still have Gardiner for this season, and the luxury to shelter Dermott while he gains more NHL experience.
 
I'm not worried about age. Morrissey (age 22), McAvoy (20), Rielly (23), Trouba (23), Provorov (20), Werenski (20), Jones (23), Dotchin (23) all played the toughest minutes for some pretty good teams last year. I don't think Dermott's age or experience is prohibitive.

Wouldn't shock me at all if Dermott ended up being the Leafs 2nd best defensman this year.
 
I think it comes down to which one of Rielly, Jake, and Dermott works best on the right side - because I sure hope all 3 of them are in our top-4, and 2 of them are on our top pair.

I had always thought that was Rielly - he played on Dion's right side and looked good to me......but now I look at the numbers I just posted up there and maybe he the move back to the left side has helped him. But maybe not - maybe that's just natural growth by him as a player.
 
It shouldn't be understated just how good Dermott was this year. He had an unbelievable season and is clearly capable of handling a far more difficult role than he did last year IMO. And it was really his play without the puck that drove it.

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Carrick is a guy who was good in sheltered minutes and can maybe handle a bigger role. Dermott is something entirely different.
 
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I'm not worried about age. Morrissey (age 22), McAvoy (20), Rielly (23), Trouba (23), Provorov (20), Werenski (20), Jones (23), Dotchin (23) all played the toughest minutes for some pretty good teams last year. I don't think Dermott's age or experience is prohibitive.

Wouldn't shock me at all if Dermott ended up being the Leafs 2nd best defensman this year.

I don't think his age disqualifies him, but I do think that it's poor team planning to work under the expectation of him managing such a jump in roles. Even if that's plan A, you should have a pretty solid plan B just in case he's not ready.
 
I'm not saying that has to be the plan going in. I'd bet its not, and Hainsey or Zaitsev starts there. I'm just saying I think that's how it plays out based on merit.

Aside from Dotchin none of those guys were forced into those roles. They earned them.
 
It shouldn't be understated just how good Dermott was this year. He had an unbelievable season and is clearly capable of handling a far more difficult role than he did last year IMO. And it was really his play without the puck that drove it.

6qAQuCM.png


GTFmWS3.png


Carrick is a guy who was good in sheltered minutes and can maybe handle a bigger role. Dermott is something entirely different.


all true, but when a guy faces competition that extremely soft it gets really hard to estimate how he'll do moving up the lineup.

that being said, the stats look dominant enough to me, and my eye test can't see any obvious flaws to worry too much about, so I'm definitely a believer too.
 
Zaitsev will be a beast this season.

Injury, 1st kid, sickness...I'll blame the season on that, figure he's motivated...going to be a good year no worries.
 
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