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2018 NHL Draft Thread

WellPlayed

WellPlayed

Well-known member
The draft approaches. I know nothing about anyone other than Dahlin. Boy wonder behind the wheel.

Who will be available around 25? Why should we pick them?

I know you always go BPA, but a C with some offensive potential is high on my wish list.
 
A few interesting names based on reading pronmans list for the athletic.

Evan bouchard, Noah Dobson, Ryan McLeod, K'andre Miller and serron Noel all had interesting profiles.

I've seen all of these players exactly 0 times so this is just from a little light reading.
 
Take Merkely

Attitudes can be adjusted with the right mentorship

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A guy who looks interesting is Semyon Der-Arguchintsev. Pronman has him at 25. I don't even see him on a bunch of other lists. Hours away from being 2019 eligible...put up some good numbers with the Petes and apparently has high end skill. Needs to bulk up big time.

Have no idea what his consensus ranking is but if he's around in the third round or after he sounds like a home run swing.
 
Mocks are all over the place, predictably enough I suppose given our slot:

Mattias Samuelsson
Grigori Denisenko
Nils Lundkvist
Ryan McLeod
Ryan Merkley
Rasmus Sandin

plus more
 
https://theathletic.com/364541/2018...of-first-big-changes-coming-under-kyle-dubas/

Whatever the Leafs’ list looked like a couple weeks ago, make no mistake, it is now dramatically different.

McLeod is probably a good example. The first thing many prospect gurus will tell you is that he is a fine player, one with a lot of tools that should get him into an NHL lineup one day.

But the second thing they’ll say is he’s not really a Dubas pick. McLeod, you see, is a safe, low-ceiling type, someone who probably tops out as a second-line centre, if all things go well. He’s also one of the oldest first-year eligibles in the draft — with a late September birth date — and this was his first season with big point totals in junior.

He would be a fairly conventional pick at 25 — the way Freddy Gauthier was for the Leafs five years ago.

I don’t think the Leafs are going to be very conventional in many respects anymore. And certainly not on draft day.
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Volcanologist said:
Mocks are all over the place, predictably enough I suppose given our slot:

Mattias Samuelsson
Grigori Denisenko
Nils Lundkvist
Ryan McLeod
Ryan Merkley
Rasmus Sandin

plus more
Click to expand...

Ryan Merkley please. If he was a couple of weeks older, he would be a top 10 pick in next year's draft if he could go a year without taking a lumberjack swing at someone. The exact type of young mental case that Saskatchewan Science was designed to turn into a good man and a gud pro.

The question with him is whether or not he drops into the 2nd round, where we might be able to snag him with the SJ pick because of his "character" issues as well as his defensive adventurism. If we have any sort of read on that, I'd be interesting in Calen Addison. Another smallish RHD with good skating and puck skills, but a better shot at being a solid 2 way defender than Merkley, but without that Merkley upside. Also fairly young for this draft year (april birthday) and PPG in the WHL for a 17 yr old defender is no joke.

If forced to pick between the two, I take the home run pick on Merkley.
 
Something mentioned in that Athletic piece that is a good reminder. It was Dubas who pushed the strategy of trading down to acquire additional picks in our 2015 draft. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw more of the same this season, especially with a home run pick like Merkley probably available in the early 2nd round.

Trade backwards a couple of times to pick up a few more 4ths, then take Merkley, the kid with huge talent.
 
Volcanologist said:
https://theathletic.com/364541/2018...of-first-big-changes-coming-under-kyle-dubas/

Whatever the Leafs’ list looked like a couple weeks ago, make no mistake, it is now dramatically different.

McLeod is probably a good example. The first thing many prospect gurus will tell you is that he is a fine player, one with a lot of tools that should get him into an NHL lineup one day.

But the second thing they’ll say is he’s not really a Dubas pick. McLeod, you see, is a safe, low-ceiling type, someone who probably tops out as a second-line centre, if all things go well. He’s also one of the oldest first-year eligibles in the draft — with a late September birth date — and this was his first season with big point totals in junior.

He would be a fairly conventional pick at 25 — the way Freddy Gauthier was for the Leafs five years ago.

I don’t think the Leafs are going to be very conventional in many respects anymore. And certainly not on draft day.
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That definitely made me really happy to read.

There are few concepts I hate more in hockey than the idea that it's OK to take "safe" players with any of your top picks.

Passable depth players can be found easily and in a multitude of ways---bargain-bin trades, free agent signings, waivers. But unless you're very lucky, high-end young talent can only be acquired high in the draft. So with your early picks especially, swing for the fences and go for the most talented kids.
 
MindzEye said:
Ryan Merkley please. If he was a couple of weeks older, he would be a top 10 pick in next year's draft if he could go a year without taking a lumberjack swing at someone. The exact type of young mental case that Saskatchewan Science was designed to turn into a good man and a gud pro.

The question with him is whether or not he drops into the 2nd round, where we might be able to snag him with the SJ pick because of his "character" issues as well as his defensive adventurism. If we have any sort of read on that, I'd be interesting in Calen Addison. Another smallish RHD with good skating and puck skills, but a better shot at being a solid 2 way defender than Merkley, but without that Merkley upside. Also fairly young for this draft year (april birthday) and PPG in the WHL for a 17 yr old defender is no joke.

If forced to pick between the two, I take the home run pick on Merkley.
Click to expand...

Merkeley won't get by CHicago at 27, they care not about character nonsense.
 
While I don't disagree in principle 'drafting safe' is a bad strategy, I have a couple issues with this article.

1. How does Mirtle (or any columnist) knows whose decision it was to trade down, who was pushing for certain players behind closed doors? I don't see how anyone other than the Leafs brass would know whose decision it was to trade down, and whose decision it was to draft guys like Korshkov or Middleton. We simply don't know. And without that visibility, how can one give credit to Dubas for trading down, and blame Hunter for drafting 'safe'?

(And really, had we not traded down, we would most likely have got Konecny, who had 24G and 47 pts in his sophomore season as a 21 year old ... it's not that bad compared to Dermott + Dzierkals and Bracco ... but I digree)

2. We all moaned when Nonis drafted Gauthier with our 1st round pick, and cursed Nonis even more when he said the ceiling of the goat is ~ 3rd line C, and MAYBE a 2C in the NHL. I agree this is the wrong strategy. Having said that, looking back at the 2013 draft pick, was there really ANYONE who is significantly better than Gauthier at 21st? It's just a really, really bad draft year and there aren't any front line players at that position (21st). So yes, I agree, drafting a guy who you know his ceiling is 3C is not a good strategy, but given how weak that draft class was, one can argue swinging for the fence would have been equally dumb. In the end, it really made no difference in this case.
 
number17 said:
While I don't disagree in principle 'drafting safe' is a bad strategy, I have a couple issues with this article.

1. How does Mirtle (or any columnist) knows whose decision it was to trade down, who was pushing for certain players behind closed doors? I don't see how anyone other than the Leafs brass would know whose decision it was to trade down, and whose decision it was to draft guys like Korshkov or Middleton. We simply don't know. And without that visibility, how can one give credit to Dubas for trading down, and blame Hunter for drafting 'safe'?

(And really, had we not traded down, we would most likely have got Konecny, who had 24G and 47 pts in his sophomore season as a 21 year old ... it's not that bad compared to Dermott + Dzierkals and Bracco ... but I digree)
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Apparently Dubas ran the 2015 draft table, though I'm sure Hunter was on board with the moves as they were co-GMs at the time, after that it was Lou... and there were no more trades. It is reading between the lines.
 
Coming out of that draft with Burakovksy or Theodore would have been much more ideal and a guy who is never going to make the show

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number17 said:
While I don't disagree in principle 'drafting safe' is a bad strategy, I have a couple issues with this article.

1. How does Mirtle (or any columnist) knows whose decision it was to trade down, who was pushing for certain players behind closed doors? I don't see how anyone other than the Leafs brass would know whose decision it was to trade down, and whose decision it was to draft guys like Korshkov or Middleton. We simply don't know. And without that visibility, how can one give credit to Dubas for trading down, and blame Hunter for drafting 'safe'?

(And really, had we not traded down, we would most likely have got Konecny, who had 24G and 47 pts in his sophomore season as a 21 year old ... it's not that bad compared to Dermott + Dzierkals and Bracco ... but I digree)
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No one can know anything for sure. But the idea that the relative value of picks flattens out after a certain point is very much a "moneyball" type concept, and we only used the strategy of trading down for additional picks when Dubas was our acting GM. So, I mean...draw what conclusions you will from that.

And sure, you can also argue that there's no publicly-available evidence that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that Dubas wasn't in love with Korshkov or Middleton...but again, based on what we know of Hunter & Dubas's backgrounds, and with the control we know Hunter had over Leaf drafting the past couple of years, it's probably a fair assumption those weren't Dubas picks.

Anyway, we'll definitely have a much better idea once the 2018 draft is complete, and if in his first draft back in charge, the Leafs stay away from big, tough, low-ceiling players, and if they also trade down when possible to acquire additional picks. And regarding Konecny---he's a nice player, but would you trade Dermott for him? I know I wouldn't.


2. We all moaned when Nonis drafted Gauthier with our 1st round pick, and cursed Nonis even more when he said the ceiling of the goat is ~ 3rd line C, and MAYBE a 2C in the NHL. I agree this is the wrong strategy. Having said that, looking back at the 2013 draft pick, was there really ANYONE who is significantly better than Gauthier at 21st? It's just a really, really bad draft year and there aren't any front line players at that position (21st). So yes, I agree, drafting a guy who you know his ceiling is 3C is not a good strategy, but given how weak that draft class was, one can argue swinging for the fence would have been equally dumb. In the end, it really made no difference in this case.
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I'm not really sure I follow your argument here.

The low quality of the draft in hindsight doesn't make it equally smart to have drafted a player who never had any chance of being a difference-maker even if he hit his ceiling.
 
My point with the Gauthier pick is, given how poor the prospects were, it might not have been a bad strategy to draft a low ceiling prospect who has a good chance to be a NHLer, instead of drafting a high risk prospect who has a very low chance of making it to the NHL, and his ceiling isn't all that high anyways.

And that philosophy hasn't cost us anything (as compared to Korshkov vs Debrincat, which I think is already a loss for us) ... I don't think you should "swing for the fence" with every single pick, and in every single situation. In the case of Gauthier, it hasn't worked out to be a bad pick afterall despite his low ceiling.
 
number17 said:
My point with the Gauthier pick is, given how poor the prospects were, it might not have been a bad strategy to draft a low ceiling prospect who has a good chance to be a NHLer, instead of drafting a high risk prospect who has a very low chance of making it to the NHL, and his ceiling isn't all that high anyways.

And that philosophy hasn't cost us anything (as compared to Korshkov vs Debrincat, which I think is already a loss for us) ... I don't think you should "swing for the fence" with every single pick, and in every single situation. In the case of Gauthier, it hasn't worked out to be a bad pick afterall despite his low ceiling.
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I think we'll just have to respectfully disagree here.

This is a really old argument, and I do get that there are some people around here who have always defended the Gauthier pick, and will continue to defend it to the death. But I'll just never agree that it's ever, under any circumstance whatsoever, defensible to take a "safe", "low-ceiling" player in the first round, or that doing so makes it likelier that you'll end up with a player who can contribute to your team at the NHL level.

Whether the player busts or not, it's a stupid waste of pretty much your team's only opportunity to acquire skilled young talent, for the purpose of getting replacement-level talent that you can easily acquire cheaply in a multitude of other ways.
 
Mocks are all over the place on where Merkely will go:

Draftsite: 18th (CBJ)
MyNHLDraft: 31st (CHI)
SI: NR (But mentions NYR being interested in him at 30)
TheScore: 21st (SJS)
Tankathon: 25th (TOR)
LastWord: 15th (FLA)
Sportsnet: 31st (CHI)

Which of course isn't proof of where he'll go, but the general sentiment on him is all over the place. He's also the exact type of player that old school scouting staffs make mistakes on all the time (like last year with Timmy dropping into our laps). Small, with questionable "character". Most teams would rather take a nice boy who loves his mother and doesn't swing sticks like a lumberjack, with half the ceiling.
 
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