The Forum Research poll, conducted on May 28 and May 29, randomly sampled 2602 Ontario voters and found that 39 per cent of decided and leaning respondents said they support the PC Party. Andrea Horwath’s NDP Party saw 35 per cent support and only 19 per cent said they would cast their ballot for the Wynne Liberals.
Based on the results of the poll, Forum Research projects the PCs to win a majority with 77 seats. The NDP is projected to receive 41 seats and the Liberals could wind up with six, according to the poll.
https://www.cp24.com/news/forum-poll-pcs-pull-ahead-of-ndp-as-election-day-nears-1.3953091
I know the only poll that matters is the one on election day, but at this point, it seems that the NDP might have hit their ceiling and Ford is going to win just due to vote efficiency.
NDP need to be 3-4 points ahead to have a chance, and most every poll has the liberals stubbornly around 20 percent, meaning that vote on the left isn't coalescing around the only party that can prevent Premier ford being a reality.
Annoying.
I don't think the polls are accurately representing the "anyone but Ford" narrative yet, and won't until election day. A Liberal supporter who is considering "never Ford" probably won't say it yet, but they'll vote strategically on election day.
I don't think the polls are accurately representing the "anyone but Ford" narrative yet, and won't until election day. A Liberal supporter who is considering "never Ford" probably won't say it yet, but they'll vote strategically on election day.
Well, there's a lot of very stubborn Liberals out there, though, so there's a good chance they won't crater that much further. But we've basically been stuck with the PCs in the 35-39 range, the NDP around the same, and the Libs caught in that 20% range. Still lots of variability out there, though. The Lib seat range on the CBC poll tracker still has predicted with 1 seat, with a range of 0-15.
So here's a question.
If the PC's win a minority. Do the NDP and Liberals create a coalition? I know that's a dirty word in Canadian politics, but it shouldn't be.
They almost certainly would do that.
If the riding was NDP before, they'll probably win again. You can always poke around to find one of those prediction things to see how close the riding might be.1. Thanks for bringing this thread back. sorry zeke but splitting them was a dumb idea.
2. I need help. I'm really struggling with my vote. I will, under no circumstances, vote for Doug Ford. But I could be convinced to vote for any of the other three parties. My riding has an NDP incumbent, but she is retiring. I would describe myself as pretty centrist - slightly left socially, slightly right fiscally. Of course you are all free to disagree with my self-assessment based on my posts here...
1. Thanks for bringing this thread back. sorry zeke but splitting them was a dumb idea.
2. I need help. I'm really struggling with my vote. I will, under no circumstances, vote for Doug Ford. But I could be convinced to vote for any of the other three parties. My riding has an NDP incumbent, but she is retiring. I would describe myself as pretty centrist - slightly left socially, slightly right fiscally. Of course you are all free to disagree with my self-assessment based on my posts here...
1. Thanks for bringing this thread back. sorry zeke but splitting them was a dumb idea.
2. I need help. I'm really struggling with my vote. I will, under no circumstances, vote for Doug Ford. But I could be convinced to vote for any of the other three parties. My riding has an NDP incumbent, but she is retiring. I would describe myself as pretty centrist - slightly left socially, slightly right fiscally. Of course you are all free to disagree with my self-assessment based on my posts here...