So many things would need to go right.
Toronto, Tampa, Boston would all need key guys to suffer some sort of injury. One of those teams needs to take a major step back. My money is on Stamkos getting hurt again.
Buffalo Florida need to continue to be middling. If either of those step up the it's a wash if one of Tampa Boston or Toronto take a step back.
Weber and Petry need career years, not just on offense, but on the defensive end. Alzner needs to get faster or smarter without the puck. Mete needs to evolve into a high level puck moving defenseman, now, not later.
Drouin needs to figure out how to be a number 1 center, now.
Pacioeretty needs to evolve his game to not be so dependent on scoring off the rush, which requires puck moving defensemen getting him the puck
Kotkaniemi needs to play this year and step in and be a effective 2nd line center.
Price needs to put up .920 with a hopefully improved defense.
Special teams need to be above league average.
All of that happens, maybe we get 3rd in the Atlantic.