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Leafs sign John Tavares to 7 year/ $77m deal

At the cottage

[video=youtube;cVxzFTh5x-o]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVxzFTh5x-o[/video]
 
Tried to delve down into per-minute stats for the guys that Tavares gets credit for boosting their scoring. This still is far from a perfect analysis, but it's better than the PPG stuff posted elsewhere imo.

Going to look only at Even Strength scoring here.

Parenteau

Age 27 NYI: 1.64p/60, 1.23p1/60
Age 28 NYI: 1.96p/60, 1.52p1/60
Age 29 COL: 2.13p/60, 1.74p1/60
Age 30 COL: 2.03p/60, 1.48p1/60

Don't think we can give any credit to Tavares for Parenteau, since he was more productive at even strength both years in Colorado than he was in his 2 years in NYI.

Okposo

Age 26 NYI: 2.03p/60, 1.57p1/60
Age 27 NYI: 1.86p/60, 1.45p1/60
Age 28 BUF: 1.28p/60, 1.09p1/60
Age 29 BUF: 1.28p/60, 0.97p1/60

well, there's very clear massive difference. Maybe Okposo just gave up on hockey after getting the big contract, but this looks like a pretty good example of a player's production falling off a cliff without Tavares.

Moulson

Age 28 NYI: 1.95p/60, 1.53p1/60
Age 29 NYI: 2.22p/60, 1.73p1/60
Age 30 MIX: 1.66p/60, 1.44p1/60 (half the season with BUF, quarter seasons with NYI and MIN)
Age 31 BUF: 1.58p/60, 1.20p1/60
Age 32 BUF: 0.98p/60, 0.75p1/60

Not as extreme as the Okposo example, but still a good example of Tavares likely boosting his production significantly.

other examples like Bailey and Lee we'll have a better idea of after this season, but right now we don't really have a point to compare on. I tried to look into the Vanek example, but i couldn't get a split of just his short time in NYI - and really, looking at his production with other teams that same year, I doubt it would show much Tavares boost - Vanek was really, really productive long before he played with Vanek.

But the Moulson and Okposo examples seem legit to me.
 
Have any contract clauses been confirmed, I don't see anything anywhere listing trade clauses etc...
 
BG said:
Have any contract clauses been confirmed, I don't see anything anywhere listing trade clauses etc...
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According to CapFriendly (which is listing Pierre Lebrun as the source for this info), the only clause on the deal is a full no-movement-clause for the entire seven years.
 
I looked at Cap Friendly and they usually list the clauses, this time you have to follow the link. Thanks LeafGm.
 
I don't think it's been posted here so I figured I'd share it - Tavares has written a 'good bye letter' to the Islanders fan. It's quite worth a read imo.

I found out a few things about Tavares in this read.

1. Tavares is an extremely loyal person.

After his draft at 18, he's played almost 10 years in an Islanders uniform, he gave the team everything he had, and he's earned the right to be an UFA. He doesn't owe the Isles anything, but you read the letter and you can't help but feel he's saying "I'm sorry" behind the words everywhere. He's very loyal to the team, to the people who he worked with and who developed him. He's just a very, very loyal person.

2. It was much closer decision than we thought

Nobody thought it was a slam dunk, but it is very clear after reading the letter it was probably a 51-49% decision. In fact, had the Islanders not been THIS BAD for THIS LONG, he would have re-signed with the Isles in a heartbeat.

In fact, I can't help but think had they retained Garth Snow, JT's good friend for 1 more year, he would have re-signed there.

3. Tavares was / is a BIG Leafs fan

I mean, there are hockey fans who grew up in Toronto (Kadri comes to mind), then there are NHL players who grew up as Leafs fans (Stamkos comes to mind), and then there are DIE HARD LEAFS FANS who turn out to be NHL players.

Tavares is one of those, and we should be very thankful for that.

Quoting from Players Tribune ...

The Leafs weren’t just my first hockey love. They were basically my first human memory.

I’ll never forget it: May 3rd, 1993. Leafs vs. Blues, Game 1, second OT. And of course it all comes down to Dougie vs. CuJo. Gilmour — back of the net … Andreychuk in front with Borschevsky … and there is Gilmour, waiting, waiting … around the net, waiting … HE’S OPEN!! GILMOUR — SOLO JOB … AND HE’S WON IT!!

I don’t even think I was three years old yet for that game. But I can still remember — so exactly — where we were when Doug scored: Just my dad and I, sitting together in front of the TV, all nerves, up on the edge of our seats, on our old couch, way way way past my bedtime. And then the two of us, just — god. Erupting as that puck slipped through. I’m sure I didn’t know any of the rules, or even have the slightest clue of what it all meant. (My guess is that my father just said something like, “OK, Johnny — root for the team wearing white here.”) And it was as simple as that: I was a little kid, wanting to stay up late, taking cues from his dad. But, man — that first cue was all I needed. That game was it for me. I was hooked.

My first time in Maple Leaf Gardens, I think I was six years old — so it was probably around the winter of ‘96. And I just remember walking in … and being speechless. Like, truly speechless — you could have knocked me over with a feather. I was in total awe. You’re going through these hallways … seeing all this memorabilia from the ‘50s and ‘60s … all of these banners, and the old team portraits, and the action shots — and then of course the iconic images of those guys lifting the Cup. There’s almost this, like … glow to it, that you can’t really explain. The whole thing felt holy. It was like going to church.

And then you get to the rink, to the ice … to that first little patch of white that catches your eye through the concourse … and man, I’m telling you: it’s over. Or at least it was over for me. That first trip to Maple Leaf Gardens, with my mom and my dad — that was the day when I think I first sort of saw my future. That was the day when I started to put that puzzle together of, like, OK, this is something beyond very cool. This is something beyond just, you know, being a kid from this city, and loving this team, and watching this game. This is … I mean … this is me, now. This is what I want to do with my life. Right here, in this building, like these guys are doing tonight. Just — that was it. You know what I mean?

I’d played hockey before.

But now I was a hockey player.

So then as far as my Boyhood Leafs Dream goes — just to set the record straight:

I absolutely was “Pajama Boy.”

You know, guilty as charged. And I absolutely deserve every bit of ribbing that I got on that one: I had the pajamas, I had the bedsheets, the blankets, the pillow cases. Man, it was just — it was an absurd, obsessed amount of Leafs stuff. And it was the time of my life.

...

Has it been a boyhood dream of mine to play for the Leafs? I’d be lying if I said it hasn’t. And was realizing that dream a major factor in my ultimately choosing to sign with the Leafs — even over a franchise that, like I said, in many ways raised me? It was a major factor, yes. But it wasn’t my entire decision. And anyone who claims it was … I’ll just say that they must not know me at all.

...

And then the other truth here is … well, the other truth here is kind of boring: I’m 27 years old. I’ve been in the league for almost a full decade. And after talking with my agent, it became clear that I was going to have this opportunity coming up to sign a pretty significant contract. And I don’t mean to be doom-and-gloom, at all … because I love this game to death, and I’ll play it until they tell me I can’t. But that being said: careers are short. You really can’t take anything for granted in hockey. And just looking at things realistically, this will probably be the last time that I ever get to be a free agent in my prime — or, in other words, be a free agent with the leverage to truly make my own decision, as opposed to having that decision made for me.

And so when we talk about childhood dreams, I mean … who doesn’t have those. But I also know that I got to sit with some of this league’s model franchises, and talk hockey with them, and take pitches from their leadership — all while knowing that, in the end, at this huge life-crossroads of mine, I was making the most informed decision possible for me and my family.
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I mean, it almost brought tears to my eyes. I, too, lived that Douggie moment ... and no, I didn't turn out to be a NHLer but I think Leafs fans all connect through moments like that. It's good for JT that the timing of everything just works out, and he gets to 'come home' to his childhood team. But we're also very fortunate to have a die hard leafs fan who grow up to be a star hockey player.

Welcome home John! Can't wait to watch you play your first game, and then one day, hoist the cup in this town!
 
Tavares has looked great, such a smart player. If his footspeed was deemed a weakness, I've yet to see it as a problem. His hands are incredible, not just from a scoring/tipping perspective - but at protecting the puck and forcing takeaways.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Not elite, not worth the money, or so I'm told.

That's right, I will never let it go.
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It's weird that he plays next to a truly elite player, and is noticeably a big step down from said elite player, but you're still going to act like you were right.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Not elite, not worth the money, or so I'm told.

That's right, I will never let it go.
Click to expand...

It's okay, by the end of his contract you will have changed your tune.

I will say this though - if he helps us win a Cup, I don't give a damn about how much of an anchor his contract becomes (and you can be sure it will).
 
realistically, he is already overpaid now. only McDavid has a higher cap hit, and I'm not even sure Tavares is a top-10 player in the league. Maybe top-20. so it will only get worse. the cap going up may help mitigate it, but pretty sure Tavares will decline at some point in his deal, and I'd have my money on his decline being more significant than whatever cap savings we see because of inflation
 
Volcanologist said:
what will the cap be by the end of his contract though?
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Somewhere between 90-95 million.

So yeah, if JT declines at all after 30, we're looking at ~12% of the cap going to a 2nd line centre for a few years.

So **** it, just win. What's done is done.
 
MindzEye said:
It's weird that he plays next to a truly elite player, and is noticeably a big step down from said elite player, but you're still going to act like you were right.
Click to expand...

He's a different player, with different strengths. But he's awesome, and I was right.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
He's a different player, with different strengths. But he's awesome, and I was right.
Click to expand...

I never said that he wasn't a really, really good hockey player. Again, I believe I agreed with LM's assessment that he was a "90th percentile" player.

He's not just "a different player, with different strengths", he is a noticeable and large step down from Matthews. Matthews is elite, Tavares is really good.
So yeah, you're right that John Tavares is a really good hockey player, congrats?
 
I thought you were referring to Marner, not Matthews.

Issue the congrats at the end of the year when he cracks 90 points. And then call him elite.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I thought you were referring to Marner, not Matthews.

Issue the congrats at the end of the year when he cracks 90 points. And then call him elite.
Click to expand...

I could see him putting up 90 points. That would have put him in the same group as Kessel, Kopitar and Wheeler last year. That's the group he belongs with. He's damn good. Just not in that very top group of "elites."

As for the who are actually the elite players in the game... McDavid is such a great point producer that he's definitely elite. Crosby and Malkin currently produce less but they are such complete players that they are in that top group. IMO Crosby is still the top overall player in the game... but if McDavid outscores him by enough again this year I think the torch may officially be passed. If it's close then Crosby retains the position imo. Matthews appears that he could be in that top grouping now. Of course the sample size is a bit small so far... but he could be there.
 
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