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So, what's next?

zeke said:
highly highly doubt it.

and actually it would be pretty weak to go all in on Tavares and then punt on doing anything else in year 1.
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Next year we have a major cap crunch though, why make it worse than it has to be?

Add Willy at 7, and Marner/Matthews bonus money and we're at 75.5 (with Horton). Why risk a bonus overage rolling over into next season?

Try some internal solutions (Rosen, Borgman, Holl, Carrick) to see if any of those work to stabilize the right side and save up the cap space for when it's most impactful, at the trade deadline. We can even go looking for Gardiner/Hainsey replacements that are signed long term at the deadline, that we would have a hard time fitting in now without risking the bonus overage next season, when we can least afford it. When the alternative is signing a guy like Enstrom, who has pretty exclusively played the left his entire career, why bother putting our cap structure for next season at risk to get a guy who is at best our 3rd best LHD?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
How about Letestu for the 4C position? I find him intriguing, but curious what the advanced stats posse thinks of him because I can't say I've watched him enough.
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Letestu is a tire fire who slowly played his way off of a bad Edmonton team. By the end he was a bad 4C who got powerplay opportunity because he can bang one timers reasonably well.

Also, maybe it's just the prior good experience with the guy, but I wouldn't mind seeing Winnik sign a cheap one year deal with us. He was a gamer.
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Not really a centre, and has definitely lost a step.

As for what's next, I think they must be looking into pulling off a trade where they move two or three lesser pieces for one better piece. Something involving a couple of wingers (I still don't believe Leivo plays for us this year), and a spare part or two, for a guy like Pesce.
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You keep repeating this stuff, but it appears that Pesce is untouchable in Carolina. They're not trading him and they love the guy.
 
zeke said:
don't need much cap space for deadline adds.
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That's good, because we don't have much space.

- Can't get cap benefits from Horton's LTIR without going over the cap
- Bonus overages can't be absorbed by LTIR savings

So like I said previously, for all intents and purposes, we're sitting at about ~75 million right now (including Willy) and that's only counting 6 defenders (which I know with the Marlies in town, Pridham wizards up a bunch of extra cap space by only taking the 7th defender on long road trips and such). So we've got a bit of wiggle room, but not as much as you seem to think....unless you're cool with pushing that ~3.7 onto next season's cap, which you shouldn't if it's only going towards adding someone like Enstrom.
 
I'm with ME on this.

The Leafs have a bunch of blueliners on the cusp who could fill out the roster effectively. Give them a chance and, if they can't do it, make a move. The latter doesn't necessarily have to be at the TDL. In fact, I'd say it's better to make a move around the new year to help intergrate any new roster player.

Also, I'd go with something like this to start the year:

Gardiner-Rielly
Demott-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Holl/Carrick
 
Also, despite my skepticism, you've gotta given Zaits a chance to rebound without top comp usage.
 
I really don't see the urgency to spend to the cap. It's not $15m, anyhow. There's real potential for $3.7M in bonus overage for 2019-20. That brings it down to $11M. Throw in Nylander's deal and it's likely $4M. You need that flexibility.
 
MindzEye said:
Letestu is a tire fire who slowly played his way off of a bad Edmonton team. By the end he was a bad 4C who got powerplay opportunity because he can bang one timers reasonably well.



Not really a centre, and has definitely lost a step.



You keep repeating this stuff, but it appears that Pesce is untouchable in Carolina. They're not trading him and they love the guy.
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I was saying Winnik as a winger to replace someone who gets traded. Say if Kapanen goes in a deal, then Brown moves up and Winnik takes the 4th line wing spot. That said, I do think he's played some center, if I'm not mistaken.

Who says Pesce is untouchable? Message boards? I don't believe that. Without question Carolina is trading one of those dmen, and it pretty much looks like it's Faulk or Pesce. And I don't think Pesce is projecting to be the next Hedman or anything, so I wouldn't just assume he's off the board.
 
MindzEye said:
That's good, because we don't have much space.

- Can't get cap benefits from Horton's LTIR without going over the cap
- Bonus overages can't be absorbed by LTIR savings

So like I said previously, for all intents and purposes, we're sitting at about ~75 million right now (including Willy) and that's only counting 6 defenders (which I know with the Marlies in town, Pridham wizards up a bunch of extra cap space by only taking the 7th defender on long road trips and such). So we've got a bit of wiggle room, but not as much as you seem to think....unless you're cool with pushing that ~3.7 onto next season's cap, which you shouldn't if it's only going towards adding someone like Enstrom.
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What's the relationship exactly between these bonuses and LTIR? I thought the injured player on LTIR basically simply doesn't exist for cap purposes.

Also, these bonuses only exist with respect to ELC deals, right? Nylander, for example, is done with those. Marner and Matthews have only this year left?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
What's the relationship exactly between these bonuses and LTIR? I thought the injured player on LTIR basically simply doesn't exist for cap purposes.
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You only get cap relief from LTIR's salary if you're over the cap.

But that space that LTIR gives you, cannot be used on ELC bonuses, any money that bonuses put you over the cap, gets pushed to the next season. So if we spent to the cap this season, and Matthews/Marner max out their bonuses, 3.7 million gets put on next season's cap, so we would have 4.9 million in dead space to deal with next season (Kessel's 1.2). In the first year of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander all making big boy money at the same time, in addition to JT's 11.

Also, these bonuses only exist with respect to ELC deals, right? Nylander, for example, is done with those. Marner and Matthews have only this year left?
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Correct, this is the last year the wonderkids bonus money is a concern.
 
Aha. Well, then they gotta make sure it goes on this year's cap.

And luckily, we really don't have any glaring holes and have improved quite a bit since last season.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I was saying Winnik as a winger to replace someone who gets traded. Say if Kapanen goes in a deal, then Brown moves up and Winnik takes the 4th line wing spot. That said, I do think he's played some center, if I'm not mistaken.
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He's not a centre that we want playing for us. As for the first scenario, sure, but even then he's meh even as a winger at this point in his career.

Who says Pesce is untouchable? Message boards? I don't believe that.
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Well, there was the whole thing about signing him to a 6 year contract recently. And no, not message boards, basically the entire hockey media is saying that the likely guy on the way out is Faulk.

Without question Carolina is trading one of those dmen, and it pretty much looks like it's Faulk or Pesce.
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By all accounts, it's Faulk. 2 years left on the deal and pretty meh 5 on 5.

And I don't think Pesce is projecting to be the next Hedman or anything, so I wouldn't just assume he's off the board.
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He's off the board for the spare parts type of trade you suggested.
 
Forward: nash or hartnell

Would like to think a player like brown could be used to bring in a middle pair Dman.
 
They definitely should spend the cap space, they just don't actually have $15 million today and there is no one interesting to spend it on now. But halfway through the year they'll have $10 mill or so to spend and there will hopefully be legit good options.

I don't see a rush. If there is a great opportunity now then go for it. But if not try to maximize it throughout the course of the season.
 
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