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Around the League 2018-2019 Edition

Wow only four years? Good trade for Vegas as well.

Nah, Vegas overpaid imo.

Tatar is more valuable on the ice than his reputation suggest imo (he's a legitimately good 2nd line winger), and I'm pretty high on Suzuki. His skill set is made for where the NHL has been trending the last few years and is of course a centre. The 2nd rounder is nice frosting on that cupcake as well. All to pay Max Pac 4 years of near UFA rates for the back 9 holes of his career.

This is a win now move for Vegas and that's fine, but it shouldn't be their only win now move. As much as I'll defend them on being a good team, they're only a "good" team imo, not a great team as currently built.

You make this move, you need to change your attitude on giving up Cody Glass for Erik Karlsson. No sense in half stepping now. McPhee is making a mistake if he expects this to be the move to put them over the top. Some regression is likely coming, I don't disagree with JB on that, I just disagree about how much.
 
Of course people will chalk it up to a vendetta, but I don't think Bergy did all that great.

Tatar at his best is kinda meh, and doesn't fit into their long term plans, and is coming off a finals run where the team didn't even feel he was good enough to dress. The 2nd is nice, but it likely doesn't become anything to write home about in the best of cases, and with this management group is almost assured of being a bust. So it's all riding on Suzuki, and is he all that? I don't know, but I wouldn't be so thrilled if the Leafs were trading JVR under similar circumstances and that's the return we got.

Meanwhile, Vegas turns a guy that they didn't even want to play into a guy who could, and should (he's young enough, so health is the only real issue), rebound back into 30+ goal guy form, especially on a pretty good team for once. And they signed him to a fair dollars deal, and a great deal from the standpoint of contract length (taking advantage of his health issues and down year). The only value they had to part with was a prospect and a 2nd to do it (whatever they gave up for Tatar is in the past and irrelevant). Plus, they get one more year of dirt cheap Max before the extension kicks in.

If Suzuki was some kind of can't miss guy, then I'd like the deal from Montreal's vantage point. But as it stands, they got a good deal in theory since it's a 1st, 2nd, and roster player that they can maybe turn into more assets. But in reality, those prospects better turn out to be pretty damn good.
 
Of course people will chalk it up to a vendetta, but I don't think Bergy did all that great.

and they would be right...

Tatar at his best is kinda meh, and doesn't fit into their long term plans, and is coming off a finals run where the team didn't even feel he was good enough to dress.

Tatar was a tire fire last year, I'm not going to argue any different. But it's the first down year of his career and he's been a consistent top 6 level performer his entire career until last season. Excellent possession and xGF numbers as well. So the puck goes in the right direction when he's on the ice. Offensively he's a stop down from Max Pac, but only just a step. Max is a 2.0-2.1 P/60 guy usually and Tatar is a 1.70-1.80 guy usually. Tatar is also under control for the next 3 years for 4.8 million.

Tatar was used for most of his time in Detroit as a winger on the key match up line, and has pretty solid numbers in that difficult usage. Nice player.

The 2nd is nice, but it likely doesn't become anything to write home about in the best of cases, and with this management group is almost assured of being a bust.

PK Subban was a 2nd rounder, drafted by this management group. I'm not going to defend their drafting, because it's generally been pretty shit, but a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. You can't downplay the value of the 2nd just because.
So it's all riding on Suzuki, and is he all that? I don't know, but I wouldn't be so thrilled if the Leafs were trading JVR under similar circumstances and that's the return we got.

Well let's be clear here, that's largely due to your borderline sexual feelings about JVR. Nick Suzuki is as close to a stud prospect as you're ever going to see move in a NHL trade. To give you an idea of how skilled he is:

D+1 Season PPG:

Kadri - 1.66
Suzuki - 1.56

Keep in mind that Kadri was old for his draft class (october birthday, so he was 18 yrs & 9 months at the time of his draft), and Suzuki was one of the youngest players in his draft class (He was 17yrs and 11 months at the time of his draft). If you age adjust for this, all of a sudden you're comparing Kadri's 17 yr old season to Suzuki's

Kadri - 1.39
Suzuki - 1.56

and Suzuki's skating is way better than Kadri's was at the same age. Just a really high end prospect with a floor of being an above average #2 with, with a mid tier #1C max upside imo.

Meanwhile, Vegas turns a guy that they didn't even want to play into a guy who could, and should (he's young enough, so health is the only real issue), rebound back into 30+ goal guy form, especially on a pretty good team for once. And they signed him to a fair dollars deal, and a great deal from the standpoint of contract length (taking advantage of his health issues and down year). The only value they had to part with was a prospect and a 2nd to do it (whatever they gave up for Tatar is in the past and irrelevant). Plus, they get one more year of dirt cheap Max before the extension kicks in.

Okay...but the extension is paying Max on the back 9. So they just traded a stud prospect and a 2nd (not to mention a useful top 6 winger under control for the rest of his prime) for the honour of paying Max 7 million a year to maybe bounce back, and maybe not decline between the ages of 30-34. Yeah, Max was a 35 goal scorer during his prime. He's now currently exiting his physical prime though. How many times to we have to see these non elite guys signed at 30 yrs old, only to watch them decline in their early 30's before we figure out that it's a bad bet? James Neal, Scott Hartnell, Patrick Sharp, Pominville, Backes, etc, etc.

It's the same reason letting JVR walk was the right one. Paying non elite guys approaching 30 is usually a bad idea.

If Suzuki was some kind of can't miss guy, then I'd like the deal from Montreal's vantage point.

Suzuki is a can't miss guy. He's a #2C at minimum.
 
don't know, but I wouldn't be so thrilled if the Leafs were trading JVR under similar circumstances and that's the return we got.

I think most would be pretty happy to get a young forward, a solid prospect at a position we lack depth in organizationally, plus more, instead of having had him walk for nothing after a disappointing 1st round loss.
 
I think most would be pretty happy to get a young forward, a solid prospect at a position we lack depth in organizationally, plus more, instead of having had him walk for nothing after a disappointing 1st round loss.

I said under similar circumstances, as in, being a cellar dweller with no playoff hopes. Not the Leafs last year holding on to JVR for a playoff run.
 
and they would be right...



Tatar was a tire fire last year, I'm not going to argue any different. But it's the first down year of his career and he's been a consistent top 6 level performer his entire career until last season. Excellent possession and xGF numbers as well. So the puck goes in the right direction when he's on the ice. Offensively he's a stop down from Max Pac, but only just a step. Max is a 2.0-2.1 P/60 guy usually and Tatar is a 1.70-1.80 guy usually. Tatar is also under control for the next 3 years for 4.8 million.

Tatar was used for most of his time in Detroit as a winger on the key match up line, and has pretty solid numbers in that difficult usage. Nice player.



PK Subban was a 2nd rounder, drafted by this management group. I'm not going to defend their drafting, because it's generally been pretty shit, but a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. You can't downplay the value of the 2nd just because.


Well let's be clear here, that's largely due to your borderline sexual feelings about JVR. Nick Suzuki is as close to a stud prospect as you're ever going to see move in a NHL trade. To give you an idea of how skilled he is:

D+1 Season PPG:

Kadri - 1.66
Suzuki - 1.56

Keep in mind that Kadri was old for his draft class (october birthday, so he was 18 yrs & 9 months at the time of his draft), and Suzuki was one of the youngest players in his draft class (He was 17yrs and 11 months at the time of his draft). If you age adjust for this, all of a sudden you're comparing Kadri's 17 yr old season to Suzuki's

Kadri - 1.39
Suzuki - 1.56

and Suzuki's skating is way better than Kadri's was at the same age. Just a really high end prospect with a floor of being an above average #2 with, with a mid tier #1C max upside imo.



Okay...but the extension is paying Max on the back 9. So they just traded a stud prospect and a 2nd (not to mention a useful top 6 winger under control for the rest of his prime) for the honour of paying Max 7 million a year to maybe bounce back, and maybe not decline between the ages of 30-34. Yeah, Max was a 35 goal scorer during his prime. He's now currently exiting his physical prime though. How many times to we have to see these non elite guys signed at 30 yrs old, only to watch them decline in their early 30's before we figure out that it's a bad bet? James Neal, Scott Hartnell, Patrick Sharp, Pominville, Backes, etc, etc.

It's the same reason letting JVR walk was the right one. Paying non elite guys approaching 30 is usually a bad idea.



Suzuki is a can't miss guy. He's a #2C at minimum.

Never said there's no risk in it for Vegas. Of course - Max could be injured the whole way through, or just not gel over there, or have slowed and deteriorated. But at his age, I'd expect his health should be fine after a long layoff like this. Anything can happen but if he's healthy, he should be the best player in the deal for the next five years.

Subban was a 2nd rounder, Gallagher was a 5th rounder, Zetterberg was a 7th rounder, and Robitaille was a 9th rounder. But Montreal has been horrific at the draft for the past decade. Not expecting anything will suddenly change now.

Like I said, it all comes down to Suzuki. Sounds like you love him. If he becomes a top 6 player for them, then wonderful, it becomes a fair deal. One wins the short term, one wins the long term. But Tatar isn't anyone who moves the needle (and for Vegas he was a negative - making over $4M and not good enough to play - so they're probably considering him a salary dump), and the 2nd is unlikely to become anything the way they've drafted in recent years. And while we wait to see if Suzuki is a player, Vegas is taking its shot at the Cup with an improved roster.

Remember though that we saw Drouin and all the hype of going back home, and he's kinda fizzled despite having a better pedigree than Suzuki. Is Suzuki a can't miss then? We'll have to see.
 
Tatar sucks, the second round pick is hardly guaranteed to be an nhler- let’s not pretend a late second typically results in a pk subban. Suzuki is a nice piece, the only quality piece - but is hardly a guarantee. Easy win for Vegas who gets the proven patches - the best player in the deal - and makes their team better now.
 
why, are you saying we'd get more that way? because we wouldn't.

I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing.

If the Leafs were a bottom five team last year, were rebuilding (by force), and had JVR under contract for one more year, I wouldn't be thrilled with this Tatar/Suzuki/2nd return.
 
Tatar sucks,

quality hot take.

the second round pick is hardly guaranteed to be an nhler- let’s not pretend a late second typically results in a pk subban.

I didn't pretend that at all. But every year there are high quality NHL players taken in the 2nd round. LF completely discounted the value of the pick, when it's a ticket to a dance that continually produces high quality players.

Suzuki is a nice piece, the only quality piece - but is hardly a guarantee. Easy win for Vegas who gets the proven patches - the best player in the deal - and makes their team better now.

Suzuki is a stud prospect. A better prospect at the same age than Kadri was, and Kadri was a hell of a prospect.
 
Suzuki alone would be a pretty good deal for almost anyone left with 1 year left on their deal.

Tatar is more useful than his counting stats indicate and a 2nd is a top 60 pick, this is a pretty good deal for the Habs, borderline really good.

Regarding Tatar, do we not remember what Vegas paid for him at the deadline? Montreal should be able to get a decent return for him too in a flip come March, Why do we care how he fits their lineup in October?
 
Never said there's no risk in it for Vegas. Of course - Max could be injured the whole way through, or just not gel over there, or have slowed and deteriorated. But at his age, I'd expect his health should be fine after a long layoff like this. Anything can happen but if he's healthy, he should be the best player in the deal for the next five years.

If Max declines even a little bit over the next year or two, the gap between he and Tatar shrinks to almost nothing. Tatar is a really nice player that for some weird reason you and BM are sleeping on.

Subban was a 2nd rounder, Gallagher was a 5th rounder, Zetterberg was a 7th rounder, and Robitaille was a 9th rounder. But Montreal has been horrific at the draft for the past decade. Not expecting anything will suddenly change now.

Horrific is a strong word. Also an inaccurate one. The Habs have probably been an average or slightly below average team at the draft over the last pile of years. It's easy to look at one team in isolation and call them shit, but the hit rate on draft picks is low everywhere but the top ~10 picks in the draft or so. The same group that has struck out on Beaulieu, McCarron, etc pulled Price, Subban, MaxPac, and McDonagh out of their ass within a couple drafts. Did they forget how to draft, or is there a strong component of luck involved? Did they draft decent talent but do a bad job developing them? It's a bit more dynamic than you're making it seem here.

Like I said, it all comes down to Suzuki. Sounds like you love him. If he becomes a top 6 player for them, then wonderful, it becomes a fair deal. One wins the short term, one wins the long term. But Tatar isn't anyone who moves the needle (and for Vegas he was a negative - making over $4M and not good enough to play - so they're probably considering him a salary dump), and the 2nd is unlikely to become anything the way they've drafted in recent years. And while we wait to see if Suzuki is a player, Vegas is taking its shot at the Cup with an improved roster.

Okay, but that's the whole point of evaluating a trade. It's not just measuring what player is best right now and whoever got that guy wins the trade. There are legitimate future assets involved in this trade that have solid value. The 2nd definitely has value, and Suzuki is one of the better centre prospects in anyone's system right now.

Remember though that we saw Drouin and all the hype of going back home, and he's kinda fizzled despite having a better pedigree than Suzuki. Is Suzuki a can't miss then? We'll have to see.

Well, anyone is going to fizzle when you play them out of position. Drouin isn't a centre and shouldn't have been put there in the first place. With that said, I'd argue that a guy who has scored at a 50+ point pace as a 21-22 yr old in the NHL hasn't "missed" at all. Put him back on the wing where he belongs, with a decent centre and PP time and he's probably a 60-65 point winger. You jerked yourself a soda over someone who wasn't quite that good for the last 5 years.

Is Suzuki a "can't miss" stud? No. That's rarified air. That's Matthews type shit. Suzuki isn't that guy. Is he a can't miss top 6 forward? Yeah, I'd argue that he is. Like I said, his floor is an above average #2C. To put it in Leaf terms, his floor is prime Bozak, but without being useless away from the puck. His high end is a better skating version of Kadri without the anger issues.
 
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Suzuki alone would be a pretty good deal for almost anyone left with 1 year left on their deal.

Tatar is more useful than his counting stats indicate and a 2nd is a top 60 pick, this is a pretty good deal for the Habs, borderline really good.

Regarding Tatar, do we not remember what Vegas paid for him at the deadline? Montreal should be able to get a decent return for him too in a flip come March, Why do we care how he fits their lineup in October?

Tatar is a pretty ideal winger to keep around for helping their upcoming young centres into the league. Defensively responsible and skilled enough to play with just about anyone. This year he's a bit of a waste, but when JK & Suzuki are ready next year (they should keep both as far away from this tire fire as possible this season imo), Tatar would make a pretty ideal 2 way winger to slot in beside the more defensively challenged of the two. Under contract for 3 more years, no need to flip him this season.
 
Exactly. Tatar is 26 and good for 20 goals. Can help with the young guys and is easily moved if need be.

This is not a bad trade for the Habs all things considered.
 
Suzuki alone would be a pretty good deal for almost anyone left with 1 year left on their deal.

Tatar is more useful than his counting stats indicate and a 2nd is a top 60 pick, this is a pretty good deal for the Habs, borderline really good.

Regarding Tatar, do we not remember what Vegas paid for him at the deadline? Montreal should be able to get a decent return for him too in a flip come March, Why do we care how he fits their lineup in October?
Yeah, I agree. You don't usually get a prospect of Suzuki's caliber in return for a rental.

So whatever value they get out of Tatar and the 2nd round pick is a bonus from my perspective.

The best play would probably be to keep him a year or two as a placeholder for Pacioretty in their lineup, and if he puts up a couple of 20-25 goal, 45+ point seasons, they could probably flip him for a better return the closer he gets to the end of his contract. $4.8M isn't rich, but at the same time, it's probably more than most contenders would be willing to commit to for multiple years on a supporting player.
 
Tatar is a pretty ideal winger to keep around for helping their upcoming young centres into the league. Defensively responsible and skilled enough to play with just about anyone. This year he's a bit of a waste, but when JK & Suzuki are ready next year (they should keep both as far away from this tire fire as possible this season imo), Tatar would make a pretty ideal 2 way winger to slot in beside the more defensively challenged of the two. Under contract for 3 more years, no need to flip him this season.

Yeah, that's fine, i'm just saying if they choose to cash in on him they will get a good return too.

His inclusion being overlooked or even labled as a negative in this Max deal is stupid.
 
Happy Hab fan here.

We basically got a high 1st rounder, a 2nd rounder and at least another future 2nd rounder (when we trade Tartar) for a 30 yr old that needed to be traded.
 
quality hot take.



I didn't pretend that at all. But every year there are high quality NHL players taken in the 2nd round. LF completely discounted the value of the pick, when it's a ticket to a dance that continually produces high quality players.



Suzuki is a stud prospect. A better prospect at the same age than Kadri was, and Kadri was a hell of a prospect.

To be clear, I'm discounting it in the hands of the Habs. In the best case, it's still not a lock to get an NHLer with a 2nd, but with Montreal's track record, those odds worsen considerably.
 
Suzuki alone would be a pretty good deal for almost anyone left with 1 year left on their deal.

Tatar is more useful than his counting stats indicate and a 2nd is a top 60 pick, this is a pretty good deal for the Habs, borderline really good.

Regarding Tatar, do we not remember what Vegas paid for him at the deadline? Montreal should be able to get a decent return for him too in a flip come March, Why do we care how he fits their lineup in October?

Will they though? If he plays like he did last year, which team will want him and his $4.5M contract for the next two years after these playoffs?
 
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