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Thread: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

  1. #301
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    So I've been listening to bobo and it's interesting that he can't really get a read on this situation because it's a rare one. He mentioned that most times in these disputes teams and agents argue over 200k-500k max.. but with the leafs and nylander it's as much as 2 million per year. He's not sure what the breaking point will be because they are sooo far off and neither side has backed off even remotely.

    From the outside looking in it seems like the leafs are trying hard to lowball him and get him in the low 6's, while nylander is asking for a bit too much in the low 8's. Seems to me the logical thing to do is meet in the middle and go 8 years at 7 per but I'm not sure willy would agree to that. And I'm not sure I'd blame him either. That takes him to 30 years old and eats a good chunk of Ufa years. This is a guy that will likely consistently score 65-70 points per year as his floor. With the cap likely continuing to go up, the contract would probably be highway robbery in years 3-8.

    I realize how important it is for the leafs to try to hold firm as possible, and maybe just maybe this goes until December, in which case they can offer the 7 and swallow the much higher cap hit in year one.. but it's hard to blame Willy on this for holding firm. When the leafs don't budge you can't expect willy to budge. They're both being equally unrealistic and frankly I don't blame either of them.

    It's a tough contract.

  2. #302
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    now that he decided to sit and lose money the next pressure point is Dec 1. it's ways off here yet.
    "...And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."

  3. #303
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    The leafs are not being unreasonable with their offer if its in the 6's. That's where essentially 100% of the comparables are.

    Nylander camp needs to open their eyes or they need to get a bridge done.

  4. #304
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Cojo View Post
    The leafs are not being unreasonable with their offer if its in the 6's. That's where essentially 100% of the comparables are.

    Nylander camp needs to open their eyes or they need to get a bridge done.
    The comparables you speak of signed a year or two ago. And they signed 5 or 6 year deals, not 8. Those are two very important factors that would drive the price up significantly. It's very frustrating having to listen to people comparing willy to certain guys in completely different situations. If they go 8 years, this is a very very very different contract than all "comparables."

  5. #305
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    Yeah, I don't think offering is the 6s is some lowball offer. He should come in around just under or over 7 by comparables. Rumour is he's asking for a contract that would make him an unattractive trade target. That's just bullshit.
    #freesheldon

  6. #306
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    At this point I'm starting to think a bridge deal is the way to go.

  7. #307
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    I'm fine with a bridge deal. Everyone seems to think Willy will explode like Mitch and Matthews. I don't think that's a given. He's underperformed as a goal scorer so far.
    #freesheldon

  8. #308
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BeLeafer View Post
    I'm fine with a bridge deal. Everyone seems to think Willy will explode like Mitch and Matthews. I don't think that's a given. He's underperformed as a goal scorer so far.
    Agreed. Willy is what he is IMO. I don't see his point totals increasing significantly unless he suddenly grows a pair of cojones.

  9. #309
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    I dunno. It seems a little silly to suggest that a player who hit 20 goals/60 points twice before his 22nd birthday has hit his ceiling.

    I still think Willy has a lot more room to grow, and wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him become a PPG player as soon as this season.

    That being said, the bottom line is that he hasn't done it yet, and you can't pay him like you're pretending that he has.
    I’ll trade five ordinary players for one great player any day. You can always find ordinary players.” - Conn Smythe

  10. #310
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    From Lebrun:

    While I believe the Leafs’ opening salvo was around $6-million over six years and the Nylander camp wanted something north of $8 million a year on a long-term deal, there’s some wiggle room from there, but the question remains, how much?

    ...

    I think the Leafs at some point also presented a scenario of a four-year deal which carried a lower AAV.

    ...

    every GM in the league I’ve talked to about Nylander say they’re under the impression Leafs GM Kyle Dubas will not trade him. Whether that’s still the case a month from now if this drags on, who knows, I guess.

    (By the way, one veteran GM via text message Thursday said he was impressed with how the young Dubas was hanging in there).

    ...

    Here’s a sampling of their assertions when I asked what they think is fair contract for him to sign:

    One rival Eastern Conference executive believed Filip Forsberg’s six-year, $36-million deal was a fair comparable for Nylander, which well, the Leafs obviously agree with. When I suggested that was signed in the summer of 2016 so perhaps you have to add a bit with salary cap inflation, he didn’t agree.

    From a rival agent: the Nylander deal should fall just under David Pastrnak, six years x $6.666 million a year. “6.5 x 6; if 7 years, 6.7 M per year; if 8 years maybe close to $7 M a year,’’ said the agent via text message.

    Another agent said if Nylander was his client he’d try like heck to get him $6.5-million a year over four years knowing how young he’d still be on the next deal, with the ability to make more money but is also cognizant the Leafs probably wouldn’t go for that, they’d want a lower AAV on a shorter-term deal.

    A Western Conference executive pointed out that from his vantage point, the Nylander standoff is a debate based on the “current market vs. future market,’’ he said via text message. “Currently he’s only worth 6.5 on a term deal. If Matthews/Marner go for 9-12, he’s certainly worth 7.5-8.’’ Which I took to mean $7.5 million a year over a max eight-year term. He was the only executive I found that was willing to give Nylander more than $7-million a year, mind you that was on a max deal.

    Said an Eastern Conference team exec via text message: “It’s 6×6.5 or 6×6.75. He’s not as good as Pastrnak but contract values have gone up a bit.’’
    https://theathletic.com/585467/2018/...liam-nylander/

  11. #311
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    Yeah if it's a max 8 year deal I don't see how 7.5 is unfair.

  12. #312
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    people make the mistake of thinking Willy stagnated last year, when in fact his most relevant production boomed massively:

    16-17 ES: 1.83p/60, 1.22p1/60
    17-18 ES: 2.42p/60, 1.86p1/60

    it's the same mistake people made judging Austin's last year - limited and unlucky PP minutes just crushed their total numbers.
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  13. #313
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    Willy is going to be significantly better. He got a bit unlucky that he didn’t have the chance to get this year under his belt before negotiating. I have no doubt he’d have 8-10 points right now if he was playing.

  14. #314
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    I don't see why Willy would sign an 8 year deal for $7.5 though. In 6 years he'll be 28 and get a kick at the UFA contract. Thats where the real money is. Just look at JT. He signed a 6 year $30 million deal and then was a UFA while he was still in his prime. Really that is what basically every good RFA does. A first liner UFA, at 28 in 2024 will probably get an 8 year $90-100 million deal.

    His next deal will be 6 years $6.5-7 mill. If thats what the Leafs are offering he should just take it. He is getting bad advice. He isn't getting any more than that and is just missing out on all the fun.

  15. #315
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    Yeah and that's where the battle lies
    Leafs want 8 years.. willy wants over 8 mil if they go 8 years. Understandably, he probably would not prefer 7.5 over 8 years.

  16. #316
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    am I correct though that the longer we wait to sign him, the lower his cap hit becomes in subsequent years?

    so we could go higher than initially offered on the money he actually pockets while keeping his future cap hit where we wanted it, in theory?

  17. #317
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    Nylander for Weber and a 4th rounder.

  18. #318
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    Quote Originally Posted by zeke View Post
    people make the mistake of thinking Willy stagnated last year, when in fact his most relevant production boomed massively:

    16-17 ES: 1.83p/60, 1.22p1/60
    17-18 ES: 2.42p/60, 1.86p1/60

    it's the same mistake people made judging Austin's last year - limited and unlucky PP minutes just crushed their total numbers.
    not sure what those numbers say, but from my eye test, last year Willie improved dramatically defensively over the previous year.

  19. #319
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kritter View Post
    not sure what those numbers say, but from my eye test, last year Willie improved dramatically defensively over the previous year.
    they say his offense at even strength increase from borderline 2nd line quality to elite 1st line quality.
    #FreeVladdy

  20. #320
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    Default Re: The Will Nye Contract Dispute thread

    In my view, they should offer him around 8 X $7.5, 7 X 7.25 or 6 x 7.0. If he doesn't bite on those, then a bridge deal for 2 or 3 years.
    #freesheldon

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