zeke
Well-known member
20gms in, time for the first useful sample size early look at the team. Remember, though, that 20gms is still a small sample and it's still really early.
Team
So we're really damn good, even without Matthews/Willy, but we still have some areas to worry about.
We have the 3rd best record, only a loser point back of 1st, and tied for the most regulation wins. We're second in goal differential / goals for% overall. It doesn't get much better than that.
In all situations, we're 6th in corsi for percentage, and 8th in expected goals for percentage, which is good, but not quite as good as their 2nd best goals for percentage - so maybe not playing quite as well as our results so far.
This is mostly because Freddy has been great, giving us the best team goaltending in hockey so far. Hopefully Freddy can keep it up and/or Sparks can pick it up to compensate for Freddy slowing down a bit. That being said, we should expect this to drop off a good bit, even if ends up elite at the end of the season - and there's the risk of it falling off more than just a bit - because a .934 team save percentage is just not sustainable.
Shooting percentage is slightly above average....but that should be expected. We might actually expect that to improve over the rest of the season.
The good news is that freddy slowing down should be counterbalanced by us getting our 1st line back in a couple weeks.
5v5
We've been pretty lucky 5v5. we've been a tick above average possession and scoring chance wise, but top-5 in goal diff. This is the area we need the most improvement in. It's not good enough. Getting our first line back, of course, should help here a good deal.
PP
We've actually been unlucky on the PP this year. 1st in expected goals and 2nd in shot attempts, but the 19th best sh% has us only with the 10th best PP. That should improve going forward, especially with Matthews and Willy coming back.
PK
Our PK has just been flat out good. 8th best expected goals against and 8th best actual goals against, without anything special in terms of save percentage.
Interesting thing to note with the special teams is that we are bottom 5 in both PPs and PKs - refs just seem to put their whistles away in our games.
Forwards
A
Matthews (when healthy), Tavares, and Marner have simply been wrecking balls this year. Probably the most potent trio of forwards in hockey this year.
Kappy has been a revelation - a legit impact 1st line producer with great all around game to boot. There doesn't seem to be a lot of fluke here. The only question is why it took so long for Babs to put him on the PP.
B
Marleau is still producing at a solid level while facing tough competition, Hyman's not scoring but he's been a solid fit on that Tavares line, and Brown has been much better in his 3rd line role this year - not producing enough but very good territorially.
C
Lindholm has been decent in solid 3rd line role. Not great, but not a liability. Leivo has been snakebit but his usual possession beast self in soft usage, probably helping Gauthier finally look like an effective NHLer too. Ennis was in over his head on the top line but has been solid since being demoted - a nice swiss army knife to have as an extra forward imo.
D
Kadri has been a bit of a dissappointment this year. Not only a lack of production at even strength, but also poor possession wise despite easier usage. That being said he has picked it up lately and I'm sure he'll be fine. Johnsson has been the biggest dissappointment, going from looking like an impact player last year to being fairly invisible this year. He seems to be picking it up lately so no need to write him off or anything like that.
Going Forward IMO
I'm hoping for 2 things when we have our full forward group - I want to see Kapanen up on the top line with Matthews and Willy, and Marleau with Kadri on the 3rd line. This will be the first time in I don't know how long that we would have 3 legit young 1st line talents playing together on our 1st line. Get out of your own way and make it happen, Babs. And Marleau has looked much better back with Kadri, and a Marleau-Kadri-Brown 3rd line should suit Babcock just fine.
As for the 4th line, it actually doesn't matter much. All 5 guys have earned playing time. My choice would be Johnsson-Lindholm-Leivo, but Ennis and Goat have been good enough not to be forgotten, too.
In short, we have the best group of forwards in hockey.
Defensemen
A
Rielly has been flat out elite. A Norris contender so far, with the only thing holding him back there being Babcock refusing to give him #1 dman minutes. Dermott has been crazy dominant in 3rd pair usage. Much like with Kappy before him, it's long past time to move him up into the top-4, and babcock has to wake up and make the move sooner rather than later. In fact, replacing Hainsey with Dermott might also let Babcock actually give Mo the minutes he needs to win a Norris.
B
Gardiner has been ok, despite Zaitsev dragging him down a bit. Ozzy has been very impressive in a bottom pair role. He's made his share of mistakes but he has very nice poise out there, with and without the puck, and a solid all around skillset. Marincin and Holl have both been good when called upon, too.
C
Hainsey doesn't belong on an elite usage top pair anymore, but he's still not a disaster up there. He's (barely) holding his own up there.....but again, we have other options we should be trying up there, and let Hainsey try to flourish in a lighter role.
D
Zaitsev has been worse than Hainsey in easier usage. This grade might be a bit harsh but I don't think I can give him the same grade as Hainsey.
Going Forward IMO:
It's a weird situation where we have a Norris contender up top, one of the best bottom pairs (and extra dmen) in the league, but a bit of trouble in the middle of the depth chart.
Like I said above, Babcock's probably getting in his own way here, much like he did with Kappy. Babcock is letting a) an addiction to "style" (i.e. puckmover/D-guy on each pairing), and b) a reluctance to promote kids aggressively, to handcuff the lineup again. There is no guarantee that it works, but Dermott should be on one of the top-2 pairs getting much bigger minutes. It would be easiest to move Hainsey down because Ozzy deserves to stay in and you can't put both righties zaitsev-ozzy on the bottom pair. I'd put Rielly and Travis together and see what happens - and they can switch R/L between them, given their skillsets.
I also wouldn't hate seeing Ozzy get a look higher up in the lineup, with Jake on the 2nd pair. I'm not sure how good Ozzy is yet but he's shown enough that it would be interesting to see if he can do better than what Zaitsev is doing up there. And then we'd have a Hainsey-Zaitsev pairing which can function more like a typical bottom pairing ES / top PK pairing. But Ozzy might not be better than Zaitsev so that's just an idea.
Overall, our D-corps is still tremendously underrated. Not a lot of teams have a puck moving trio as good as Mo/Jake/Travis, and Hainsey/Zaits/Oz are all useful borderline top-4 NHL dmen too.
Goaltending
Andersen has been the best goalie in hockey so far. The early Vezina favorite. Let's see if he can avoid any major slumps this year and put himself in that elite tier of goalies.
Sparks has been an average backup goalie so far. 2 good games, 2 bad games, below average but not awful .906sv%. He has an "interesting" style so we'll see how that works out going forward. I'm still a believer.
Overall
This team is a contender, probably even a favorite. Depending on how things develop they have a chance to be the very best team in hockey this year.
Team
So we're really damn good, even without Matthews/Willy, but we still have some areas to worry about.
We have the 3rd best record, only a loser point back of 1st, and tied for the most regulation wins. We're second in goal differential / goals for% overall. It doesn't get much better than that.
In all situations, we're 6th in corsi for percentage, and 8th in expected goals for percentage, which is good, but not quite as good as their 2nd best goals for percentage - so maybe not playing quite as well as our results so far.
This is mostly because Freddy has been great, giving us the best team goaltending in hockey so far. Hopefully Freddy can keep it up and/or Sparks can pick it up to compensate for Freddy slowing down a bit. That being said, we should expect this to drop off a good bit, even if ends up elite at the end of the season - and there's the risk of it falling off more than just a bit - because a .934 team save percentage is just not sustainable.
Shooting percentage is slightly above average....but that should be expected. We might actually expect that to improve over the rest of the season.
The good news is that freddy slowing down should be counterbalanced by us getting our 1st line back in a couple weeks.
5v5
We've been pretty lucky 5v5. we've been a tick above average possession and scoring chance wise, but top-5 in goal diff. This is the area we need the most improvement in. It's not good enough. Getting our first line back, of course, should help here a good deal.
PP
We've actually been unlucky on the PP this year. 1st in expected goals and 2nd in shot attempts, but the 19th best sh% has us only with the 10th best PP. That should improve going forward, especially with Matthews and Willy coming back.
PK
Our PK has just been flat out good. 8th best expected goals against and 8th best actual goals against, without anything special in terms of save percentage.
Interesting thing to note with the special teams is that we are bottom 5 in both PPs and PKs - refs just seem to put their whistles away in our games.
Forwards
A
Matthews (when healthy), Tavares, and Marner have simply been wrecking balls this year. Probably the most potent trio of forwards in hockey this year.
Kappy has been a revelation - a legit impact 1st line producer with great all around game to boot. There doesn't seem to be a lot of fluke here. The only question is why it took so long for Babs to put him on the PP.
B
Marleau is still producing at a solid level while facing tough competition, Hyman's not scoring but he's been a solid fit on that Tavares line, and Brown has been much better in his 3rd line role this year - not producing enough but very good territorially.
C
Lindholm has been decent in solid 3rd line role. Not great, but not a liability. Leivo has been snakebit but his usual possession beast self in soft usage, probably helping Gauthier finally look like an effective NHLer too. Ennis was in over his head on the top line but has been solid since being demoted - a nice swiss army knife to have as an extra forward imo.
D
Kadri has been a bit of a dissappointment this year. Not only a lack of production at even strength, but also poor possession wise despite easier usage. That being said he has picked it up lately and I'm sure he'll be fine. Johnsson has been the biggest dissappointment, going from looking like an impact player last year to being fairly invisible this year. He seems to be picking it up lately so no need to write him off or anything like that.
Going Forward IMO
I'm hoping for 2 things when we have our full forward group - I want to see Kapanen up on the top line with Matthews and Willy, and Marleau with Kadri on the 3rd line. This will be the first time in I don't know how long that we would have 3 legit young 1st line talents playing together on our 1st line. Get out of your own way and make it happen, Babs. And Marleau has looked much better back with Kadri, and a Marleau-Kadri-Brown 3rd line should suit Babcock just fine.
As for the 4th line, it actually doesn't matter much. All 5 guys have earned playing time. My choice would be Johnsson-Lindholm-Leivo, but Ennis and Goat have been good enough not to be forgotten, too.
In short, we have the best group of forwards in hockey.
Defensemen
A
Rielly has been flat out elite. A Norris contender so far, with the only thing holding him back there being Babcock refusing to give him #1 dman minutes. Dermott has been crazy dominant in 3rd pair usage. Much like with Kappy before him, it's long past time to move him up into the top-4, and babcock has to wake up and make the move sooner rather than later. In fact, replacing Hainsey with Dermott might also let Babcock actually give Mo the minutes he needs to win a Norris.
B
Gardiner has been ok, despite Zaitsev dragging him down a bit. Ozzy has been very impressive in a bottom pair role. He's made his share of mistakes but he has very nice poise out there, with and without the puck, and a solid all around skillset. Marincin and Holl have both been good when called upon, too.
C
Hainsey doesn't belong on an elite usage top pair anymore, but he's still not a disaster up there. He's (barely) holding his own up there.....but again, we have other options we should be trying up there, and let Hainsey try to flourish in a lighter role.
D
Zaitsev has been worse than Hainsey in easier usage. This grade might be a bit harsh but I don't think I can give him the same grade as Hainsey.
Going Forward IMO:
It's a weird situation where we have a Norris contender up top, one of the best bottom pairs (and extra dmen) in the league, but a bit of trouble in the middle of the depth chart.
Like I said above, Babcock's probably getting in his own way here, much like he did with Kappy. Babcock is letting a) an addiction to "style" (i.e. puckmover/D-guy on each pairing), and b) a reluctance to promote kids aggressively, to handcuff the lineup again. There is no guarantee that it works, but Dermott should be on one of the top-2 pairs getting much bigger minutes. It would be easiest to move Hainsey down because Ozzy deserves to stay in and you can't put both righties zaitsev-ozzy on the bottom pair. I'd put Rielly and Travis together and see what happens - and they can switch R/L between them, given their skillsets.
I also wouldn't hate seeing Ozzy get a look higher up in the lineup, with Jake on the 2nd pair. I'm not sure how good Ozzy is yet but he's shown enough that it would be interesting to see if he can do better than what Zaitsev is doing up there. And then we'd have a Hainsey-Zaitsev pairing which can function more like a typical bottom pairing ES / top PK pairing. But Ozzy might not be better than Zaitsev so that's just an idea.
Overall, our D-corps is still tremendously underrated. Not a lot of teams have a puck moving trio as good as Mo/Jake/Travis, and Hainsey/Zaits/Oz are all useful borderline top-4 NHL dmen too.
Goaltending
Andersen has been the best goalie in hockey so far. The early Vezina favorite. Let's see if he can avoid any major slumps this year and put himself in that elite tier of goalies.
Sparks has been an average backup goalie so far. 2 good games, 2 bad games, below average but not awful .906sv%. He has an "interesting" style so we'll see how that works out going forward. I'm still a believer.
Overall
This team is a contender, probably even a favorite. Depending on how things develop they have a chance to be the very best team in hockey this year.
