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PlayerToBeNamedLater
02-24-2008, 12:18 PM
Shannon Stewart is on his way back to the Blue Jays after signing a minor-league contract with the club with an invitation to spring training.

The 34-year old outfielder hit .290 with 12 home runs and 48 RBI last season with the Oakland Athletics.

http://tsn.ca/mlb/news_story/?ID=230456&hubname=

Good depth signing.

CTheBigPicture
02-24-2008, 12:20 PM
Shannon Stewart is on his way back to the Blue Jays after signing a minor-league contract with the club with an invitation to spring training.

The 34-year old outfielder hit .290 with 12 home runs and 48 RBI last season with the Oakland Athletics.

http://tsn.ca/mlb/news_story/?ID=230456&hubname=

Good depth signing.

that came out of nowhere...good deal

mbow30
02-24-2008, 12:28 PM
i can't believe there was no interest in him. he was basically healthy last year and had a pretty good season.

nice pickup. let's hope he sticks.

Fitzgerald#11
02-24-2008, 12:35 PM
where exactly does he fit? 5th OF'er? Unless were carrying only 6 in the bullpen then it makes sense we brought him in. He was one of my fav Jays back when he was here.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
02-24-2008, 12:35 PM
The Jays are going to have a fantastic bench! It will give them so much flexability during games to really maximize the offense. I like it!

Wayward DP
02-24-2008, 12:38 PM
He's always been a real good hitter. Solid addition. I just hate the way this team is built though. JP really needs to go. Once again we can look forward to another third place finish. Woohoo

MyNameIsJonas
02-24-2008, 01:19 PM
if Shannon plays well in ST i think Reed is dealt...

axlsalinger
02-24-2008, 01:21 PM
Shannon is injury depth until Adam Lind is ready for prime time. Plus there are questions about Reed Johnson's health and Matt Stairs' age. Nice pickup, but it is surprising there isn't a team out there with an open spot in the OF for this guy.

JaysCyYoung
02-24-2008, 01:49 PM
I'm amazed that teams weren't able to fit a .300 hitter into their line-up somewhere. Stewart walks a ton and gets on base at a great clip normally, so he has a lot of tangible offensive value. He's basically a superior player to Reed Johnson, minus the noodle arm (which he has always had due to a high school football injury), so it'll be interesting to see how he fits into the club dynamic.

If there is really one positive to this it's the fact that he will limit Johnson's playing time against righties and spare Matt Stairs some starts in the outfield, thereby increasing his effectiveness by limiting his playing time. The bench is looking really deep now with Stairs, Stewart and Scutaro. Add in a mid-season promotion from Curtis Thigpen from Syracuse if Barajas can't handle the back-up catching duties and Lind starting the season with Syracuse to get some much-needed full-time starts and I'm really liking the way the offence is shaping up.

It's like J.P. finally realized the value of having a deep bench to account for injuries. The best move of the off-season was grabbing Scutaro as the super-sub and signing Eckstein to handle the load at short-stop, thereby demoting John McDonald to the bench (as he is a fantastic late-innings defensive replacement but hardly starting material). This move is right up there though. Nice signing that was off the radar.

zeke
02-24-2008, 04:58 PM
big fan of this signing.

this guy in any year now can be the "moneyball" signing of the offseason - if he can stay healthy, he's a legit good hitter. he's a pretty good fielder too, aside from his popgun arm.

especially with the question marks around both Stairs and Reed, this is a very good depth signing.

hell, if he stays healthy, he can give us legit star-quality numbers (.850ops)...although that's probably unlikely.

mbow30
02-24-2008, 05:36 PM
big fan of this signing.

this guy in any year now can be the "moneyball" signing of the offseason - if he can stay healthy, he's a legit good hitter. he's a pretty good fielder too, aside from his popgun arm.

especially with the question marks around both Stairs and Reed, this is a very good depth signing.

hell, if he stays healthy, he can give us legit star-quality numbers (.850ops)...although that's probably unlikely.

the thing is, his low end numbers are slightly above average for johnson.

this signing is exactly why i'm pissed that they're paying $3.5mn to johnson.

dump him and put the $3mn saved towards an incentive-laden deal for colon. the jays will have a high-risk lineup, but the top end potential would be simply phenomenal.

da_next_kid
02-24-2008, 05:37 PM
Bartolo Colon is still available? wow.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
02-24-2008, 05:47 PM
No he is not, he just signed a minor league contract (w/ incentives) with the Red Sox today.

zeke
02-24-2008, 05:52 PM
the thing is, his low end numbers are slightly above average for johnson.

this signing is exactly why i'm pissed that they're paying $3.5mn to johnson.

dump him and put the $3mn saved towards an incentive-laden deal for colon. the jays will have a high-risk lineup, but the top end potential would be simply phenomenal.

Johnson's a hard call, but he had a huge year 2 years ago.

$3.5 really is nothing, though. you can't even buy a mediocre middle reliever for $3.5 mil.

If Johnson comes anywhere near his last healthy year, he's a massive bargain.

mbow30
02-24-2008, 05:53 PM
DAMMIT

they should have pushed hard for colon, clement. prior.. one of those guys. there were about 5 of them available this off season, and given the jays situation, any one of them would have been a great pickup. for the jays to have a prayer the team needs its pitching to be extremely good and consistent. with burnett's injury concerns, marcum's slow second half and mcgowan's inexperience and questionable delivery there are still question marks surrounding the rotation, talented as it may be. by adding one of the aforementioned arms, the blue jays add insurance, and also add a player who, if all the pieces fall into place, everybody repeats and that player rounds back into form, would give the jays the most formidable rotation in the AL.

mbow30
02-24-2008, 05:55 PM
Johnson's a hard call, but he had a huge year 2 years ago.

$3.5 really is nothing, though. you can't even buy a mediocre middle reliever for $3.5 mil.

If Johnson comes anywhere near his last healthy year, he's a massive bargain.

yeah but those incentive-laden deals were all 500k-1mn base plus another 2-3mn in incentives.

that's where im' saying that money should have gone to.

as for johnson repeating his 06 season... that season was as big an outlier as his 07 campaign. he's not going to hit 320 and post an 870 ops.

Fitzgerald#11
02-24-2008, 05:57 PM
Colon's been done for some time now. Major weight issues as well with him. Clement and Prior were looking for 1 year deals in places they could succeed (the NL of course). Prior ended up in San Diego, the best park to pitch in the NL, Clement in St. Louis who we did have intrest in. Both of them are better bets to have some nice #'s and turn it into a nice contract next winter then they would in Toronto in the AL East.

rated
02-24-2008, 06:04 PM
The Jays are going to have a fantastic bench! It will give them so much flexability during games to really maximize the offense. I like it!


I agree, which is really why i hope this is a depth move and not a moving reed future move.

zeke
02-24-2008, 06:11 PM
I think the Jays are fed up with trying to sign the injured veteran depth pitchers....it hasn't worked out for them recently.

Those 3 are all old and have been beyond awful the past couple of years. Like really, really bad.

I think they'd much rather rely on the guys they have already - after the starting 4, they've got all of Litsch, Janssen, Chacin, Wolfe, Banks, and Purcey for depth.

mbow30
02-24-2008, 06:14 PM
I think the Jays are fed up with trying to sign the injured veteran depth pitchers....it hasn't worked out for them recently.

fed up? they tried it in ONE season.

and they brought in a couple of career 4th/5th starters, not a former cy young winner.


Those 3 are all old and have been beyond awful the past couple of years. Like really, really bad.

prior is 28. clement is 34.


I think they'd much rather rely on the guys they have already - after the starting 4, they've got all of Litsch, Janssen, Chacin, Wolfe, Banks, and Purcey for depth.

of course they are going to rely on halladay, burnett, mcgowan and marcum. taht doesn't change the fact that three of those pitchers have question marks. and you cannot depend on one pitcher in that list you've provided. three of thsoe pitchers aren't there yet (wolfe, banks and purcey), chacin has been as bad and as injured as the vets i mentioned. litsch's stuff isn't very good and there is a good chance that he sees a big dropoff like chacin on his second or third go around. janssen i like, but who nkows how he'll adapt coming back out of the pen.

zeke
02-24-2008, 06:21 PM
yeah but those incentive-laden deals were all 500k-1mn base plus another 2-3mn in incentives.

that's where im' saying that money should have gone to.

as for johnson repeating his 06 season... that season was as big an outlier as his 07 campaign. he's not going to hit 320 and post an 870 ops.


even if you take out both the last two years as outliers, you're getting a guy posting an OPS in the mid-.700s (and significantly higher against lefties), who's a gold glove caliber fielder as well.

the only real question mark with Johnson is his back - is it going to keep on bothering him?

drewser
02-24-2008, 06:23 PM
Prior or Clement I would have taken a flyer on, but Colon is way beyond done...

Fitzgerald#11
02-24-2008, 06:26 PM
I'll mention it again, both those guys were not gonna sign in the AL. they needed a good year (which they can have in the NL) to get a multi-year deal next winter

zeke
02-24-2008, 06:32 PM
fed up? they tried it in ONE season.

and they brought in a couple of career 4th/5th starters, not a former cy young winner.



prior is 28. clement is 34.



of course they are going to rely on halladay, burnett, mcgowan and marcum. taht doesn't change the fact that three of those pitchers have question marks. and you cannot depend on one pitcher in that list you've provided. three of thsoe pitchers aren't there yet (wolfe, banks and purcey), chacin has been as bad and as injured as the vets i mentioned. litsch's stuff isn't very good and there is a good chance that he sees a big dropoff like chacin on his second or third go around. janssen i like, but who nkows how he'll adapt coming back out of the pen.

I know JP was interested in Clement, and would have signed him for a minimum deal. Might have been interested in the other two as well......but they all probably wanted to go to teams with a) more opportunity to start and b) better pitchig parks and c) not in Canada.

I don't think we'd have been happy to see JP go out and outbid other teams for thes guys.

da_next_kid
02-24-2008, 09:44 PM
So, what is the prognosis for this team? Another 3rd place finish?

I think they could make the playoffs in a best case scenario if McGowan and Marcum improve, Halladay and Burnett stay healthy and Wells plays like Wells of two years ago.

Fitzgerald#11
02-29-2008, 12:00 PM
Cautious optimism in Toronto

Each of the last two years, J.P. Ricciardi thought the Blue Jays had a chance to be a very good team and win 90 or more games, if some things fell their way. And while the Jays won 87 games and finished ahead of the Red Sox in 2006, they were hammered by injuries early in 2007 and closed with 83 victories.

The Jays are in camp again, and again, you can glance at the Toronto roster and consider what could be, and you envision a way in which this team could shock the American League. The Jays have a legitimate ace in Roy Halladay, a rising young star in Dustin McGowan, and a deep group of talented starters and relievers. B.J. Ryan is less than a year removed from Tommy John surgery, and yet it appears there is a real chance he will open the season on the Opening Day roster. Toronto may have the best pitching staff in the AL East, and maybe even in the AL.

Sure, there are questions about the offense: Can Vernon Wells bounce back and be what he was in 2006, rather than in 2007? Can Frank Thomas get off to a better start? Can Lyle Overbay recover from his 2007 injury? Will the Jays get away from their free-swinging traits of last summer and show more patience, a la Boston and the Yankees?

There is reason to think good thoughts, but Ricciardi is not dwelling on them, after seeing what happened in 2006 and 2007. "You could say that I'm cautiously optimistic," he said.

Ryan had reconstructive surgery on his left elbow last May 10, and typically, players have required at least a year of rehabilitation from the Tommy John operation. But 10 months later, Ryan feels good, Ricciardi said. And he looks good, with his arm angle higher. The Jays are not looking ahead, not assuming anything, not pushing to meet any arbitrary calendar benchmarks. "He throws, we take a look at it, and then we move on to the next day," said Ricciardi.

Ryan threw live batting practice Thursday and was satisfied with his brief workout, writes Jeff Blair.

If Ryan can take over as the Jays' closer, then the Jays will have a couple of attractive options: They could move Casey Janssen, who fared very well as a setup man last year, into a starter role to build a really deep rotation that also includes Halladay, Burnett, McGowan and Shaun Marcum; or the Jays could keep Janssen in the 'pen and give themselves a chance to have an extraordinary relief corps, with Ryan, Janssen, Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs, Brian Wolfe, Brian Tallet and Brandon League. The guess here is that the Jays would go the latter route and opt for greater bullpen depth.

If Burnett can stay healthy, if Ryan comes back, if Wells hits, the AL East will have three excellent teams in the Red Sox, Yankees and Jays, and another evolving team in the Rays. That would make it very difficult for two teams to make the playoffs out of the East.
...

zeke
02-29-2008, 12:22 PM
So, what is the prognosis for this team? Another 3rd place finish?

I think they could make the playoffs in a best case scenario if McGowan and Marcum improve, Halladay and Burnett stay healthy and Wells plays like Wells of two years ago.

I don't think we need McGowan and Marcum to improve - if they just stay the same as last year, they're great #3 and #4 starters already. If they improve, then we're looking real good.

Really, if all the players on average have "typical" years, this team is looking very good.

zeke
02-29-2008, 12:30 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?videoId=3270452&categoryId=2521705

mbow30
02-29-2008, 01:41 PM
they need overbay to bounce back. he boucnes back and he gives them that legit middle of the order threat vs. righties that the lineup lacked last season (though stairs bounceback year certainly helped alleviate this, the tradeoff in left field due to the lack of a legit platoon option--not to mention lind's disappointments--still left a big hole in the lineup).

Fitzgerald#11
02-29-2008, 04:15 PM
Lyle Overbay went 2-for-3 with a double and an RBI as the Jays' No. 7 hitter on Thursday.
early but good to see nonetheless

Montana
02-29-2008, 05:20 PM
..


Lind will be a plus 840ops this year. Bank it.



Marisnick>>>>Gose

PlayerToBeNamedLater
03-12-2008, 11:29 AM
Some Jays Notes:

DUNEDIN, Fla. - The Toronto Blue Jays signed reliever Armando Benitez to a minor-league contract on Tuesday.

The 35-year-old right-hander split last season between the San Francisco Giants and Florida Marlins, going a combined 2-8 with 17 saves and an earned-run average of 5.37.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story/?ID=231761&hubname=





TAMPA, Fla. - Gustavo Chacin is no longer in the running to be the fifth starter for the Toronto Blue Jays, who suddenly found themselves with some other things to worry about Tuesday.

The left-hander was pounded for four runs in two innings of a 6-1 Grapefruit League drubbing from the New York Yankees.

His poor outing came after right-hander Casey Janssen was scratched from a simulated game in the morning due to soreness in his right shoulder and was scheduled to undergo an MRI.

The potential loss of Janssen, slated to be either the club's fifth starter or set-up man, would be a big blow to the team, although there was no immediate word on the severity of the injury.

''I think I am 80 per cent right now, but I am feeling better every time out,'' Chacin said.

That slow buildup is why Chacin was never really considered a likely candidate for the fifth starter's job,

''No, he hasn't been. We knew that,'' said Jays manager John Gibbons.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story/?ID=231801&hubname=

Fitzgerald#11
03-12-2008, 11:41 AM
The Fan 590 in Toronto reports that Casey Janssen will miss the season with a torn labrum.

Janssen will undergo surgery after cutting a Tuesday warmup short due to pain in his right shoulder. Jesse Litsch will likely break camp as the team's fifth starter, and suddenly that Armando Benitez signing makes a little more sense. Janssen was a workhorse for the Jays last season, appearing in 70 games and finishing 2-3 with a stellar 2.35 ERA.
Thats a quality bullpen arm lost. Would of been nice to see him in that 7th inning role (in front of Accardo and Ryan). He was also an option for the 5th starter too.Ots good thing we have some bullpen depth though.

da_next_kid
03-12-2008, 11:43 AM
Terrible just terrible, this guy is a big loss.

Fitzgerald#11
03-12-2008, 11:54 AM
Thank God League is back to where he was 2 years ago. He should fill in that 7th inning role nicely. There's also a guy like Wolfe who pitched real well under the radar last year. Still would of nice to have had Janssen, League and Accardoset up Ryan.

Killer93
03-12-2008, 12:00 PM
The injuries have begun :(

CTheBigPicture
03-12-2008, 12:39 PM
TORONTO sports teams are cursed.

zeke
03-12-2008, 12:54 PM
dear lord, this city is infected with injuries.

let's pray that Ryan can be effective ASAP.

mbow30
03-12-2008, 12:56 PM
i also hope thta they don't rush ryan back. he is signed for too long to cause permanent damage.


as always, though, this season will rest on the starting five. if mcgowan repeats last year they'll be fine. of cousre, there is a good possibility that both mcgowan and hallady pitch even better in 2008 than they did in 2007.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
03-12-2008, 01:00 PM
It is crazy.

The Raps have missed a combined 42 games alone from Bosh and Ford this year.

The Leafs are near the top in terms of man games lost due to injury again this year.

The Jays had key injuries to Wells, Ryan, Burnett, Halladay, Glaus, Overbay, League among others last year.

acescanuck
03-12-2008, 01:06 PM
Thank God League is back to where he was 2 years ago. He should fill in that 7th inning role nicely. There's also a guy like Wolfe who pitched real well under the radar last year. Still would of nice to have had Janssen, League and Accardoset up Ryan.

Is Leauges velocity back to where it was a couple seasons ago? Man that guy could throw some heat.

zeke
03-12-2008, 01:07 PM
League's been up around 95-97 so far, which is nice. Not quite at the 98-100 he used to ahve, but still very good.

hairnova
03-12-2008, 01:09 PM
I don't know if anyone has mentioned it, but I was watching the Yanks-Jays and the Yankees announcers said that the Jays were pretty impressed with Kane Davis out of the bullpen.

zeke
03-12-2008, 01:11 PM
Kane Davis?

MyNameIsJonas
03-12-2008, 01:16 PM
Kane Davis along with this Parrish guy are battling for Bullpen spots...along with Shawn Camp and i guess Armando Benitez....

with the injury to Janssen...i specualte we may see a trade with the Brewers to bring in a starter...either Vargas Capuano or Bush.....the Crew could use some pen help...and salary releief....so maybe a Frasor and C prospect for Capuano makes sense for both sides

hairnova
03-12-2008, 01:20 PM
Kane Davis?

I dunno who he is, just heard it and thought I'd post it.

He pitched three innings against the Yankees yesterday.

Fitzgerald#11
03-12-2008, 01:24 PM
6.1IP and only 1 run given up so far. Of course I've never seen him pitch so its tough to judge.

I think we'll be pretty good still if the bullpen looks like this

Ryan
Accardo
League
Downs
Tallet
Frasor
Parrish

da_next_kid
03-12-2008, 01:26 PM
I don't understand why they can't let Accardo be the closer until BJ recovers 100% and is in mid-season form, it seems they are rushing him and want him to be closer on opening day. And also who is batting 3rd?

zeke
03-12-2008, 01:58 PM
1) A.Hill
2) A.Rios
3) V.Wells
4) F.Thomas
5) L.Overbay
6) S.Rolen
7) M.Stairs
8) G.Zaun
9) D.Eckstein

Wayward DP
03-12-2008, 02:03 PM
I feel like Eckstein will be our leadoff man.

zeke
03-12-2008, 02:08 PM
definitely to start the year. Hill might just have a big year this year, though. He's a good player.


Although I might even go with this:

1) Rios
2) Overbay
3) Wells
4) Thomas
5) Rolen
6) Stairs
7) Hill
8) Zaun
9) Eckstein

da_next_kid
03-12-2008, 02:12 PM
Rios leading off is beyond idiotic, why would our best power hitter hit lead off? Gibbons just pisses me off, ugh.

Fitzgerald#11
03-12-2008, 02:17 PM
Eckstien
Overbay
Rios
Thomas
Wells
Rolen
Hill
Zaun
Reed/Stairs/Stewert/Lind

zeke
03-12-2008, 02:21 PM
Rios leading off is beyond idiotic, why would our best power hitter hit lead off? Gibbons just pisses me off, ugh.

more at bats for our best hitters means more offense overall.

Fitzgerald#11
03-12-2008, 02:39 PM
Stick Rios in the 3 hole unless Wells shows that he's back to his 2006-06 form. Have Wells split up Rolen and Thomas so there no cloggage with base running like last year with Thomas and Glaus

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-12-2008, 02:40 PM
Rios will not be the leadoff hitter this year, JP/Gibbons have said so.

Eckstein was brought in to be the leadoff hitter, Johnson/Stewart will be the leadoff hitter when there is a lefty on the mound.

Eckstein
Overbay
Rios
Rolen
Wells
Thomas
Stairs
Hill
Zaun

clubbies
03-12-2008, 02:46 PM
Stick Rios in the 3 hole unless Wells shows that he's back to his 2006-06 form. Have Wells split up Rolen and Thomas so there no cloggage with base running like last year with Thomas and Glaus

Rolen is not like Glaus, he is fast. He's probably one of the best baserunners on the team.

Eckstein
Rolen
Rios
Thomas
Overbay
Wells
Stairs
Hill
Zaun

This is a balanced lineup (Rolen can hit RHP). Eckstein should probably switch with Hill against LHP. I would expect to see lots of Stewart or Johnson at the top of the lineup when McDonald plays SS.

zeke
03-12-2008, 03:11 PM
I like Eckstein and all, but I think it says a lot about our team that he's probably the worst hitter in the lineup.

I don't mind starting out with him at leadoff, but if the team stays relatively healthy and everyone hits to where they're expected, I'm not sure I want the worst hitter on our team leading off.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-12-2008, 03:46 PM
He's there because has a solid OBP, speed and bat control.

mbow30
03-12-2008, 04:32 PM
you don't use ops to judge who your best leadoff hitter is--that's stupid.

BA and OBP are far more important elements atop the lineup and speed also has to count for something (which is why you don't bat frank thomas first).

eckstein's BA would have put him first on the blue jays last year, his obp 4th.

so unless aaron hill proves he can get on base at least as consistently as eckstein, you don't bat him atop the order and eckstein at the bottom.

right now eckstein is the only hitter outside of rios who combined average, walk rate and speed. so he's a natural for the leadoff spot.

zeke
03-12-2008, 04:42 PM
you're making a fatal assumption that Eckstein's expected average, walk rate, or speed are anything special......or even enough to offset his lack in SLG relative to other hitters we could put in there.

mbow30
03-12-2008, 05:25 PM
your argument doesn't make sense.

it is little use putting a hitter with a high slg percentage in the leadoff spot. you are not going to reap the benefits of that player's full potential batting them leadoff. you don't need a home run hitter in the one spot.

and "anything speical" is a pretty vague measurement. i looked at it in real, relative terms.

eckstein's batting average and obp are both amongst the team's top four. the only players with higher obps from last year were all power hitters. his obp was even higher than rios's.

so it makes a ton of sense to put him in a position to get plenty of at bats to put himself on base for rios/overbay/thomas/rolen/wells. much more sense than it does to put hill, who barely topped a 330 obp last year, or rios, who needs to be in a position where his line drive power can be utilized to drive in runs.

zeke
03-12-2008, 05:31 PM
how often does a leadoff hitter actually leadoff an inning?

how is a double, triple, or homer in the leadoff spot less important than a single or a walk?

we've got plenty of depth of pop in this lineup, so there's no reason why you wouldn't move a power hitter into a non-traditional role here.

besiudes, the difference between eckstein's OBP compared to the likes of Rios and Hill this year will probably be marginal, and it would be no surprise to see both of the youngsters post a better OBP than him. that's because his OBP is only decent, not great.

Only one hitter on the team is likely to post an OBP significantly lower than Eckstein's, and that's Wells....and even that is far from a guarantee.


I like Eckstein, but you seem to think he's much better than he is.

mbow30
03-12-2008, 05:39 PM
how often does a leadoff hitter actually leadoff an inning?

what does this have to do with leading off an inning?

it has to do with 1) getting more opportunities at the plate and 2) having a consistent opportunity to hit in front of the teams better hitters.

a leadoff hitter averages 1 more at bat per game than the 8th or 9th hitters. you generally want a player with a high obp and speed in that spot. eckstein fits that role.

besides, how many comparable leadoff hitters can you find to rios?


ow is a double, triple, or homer in the leadoff spot less important than a single or a walk?

because the leadoff hitter is more likely to hit with nobody on base. because he usually either leads off the inning or hits behind the team's weakest hitters.


the difference between eckstein's OBP compared to the likes of Rios and Hill this year will probably be marginal, and it would be no surprise to see both of the youngsters post a better OBP than him. that's because his OBP is only decent, not great.

rios's, yep. but like i said, i'd rather rios hitting in the heart of the order, with some protection by the likes of overbay/thomas or rolen/thomas.

hill? it would be pretty unlikely. eckstein's career obp is .10 points higher. last year his was more htan 20 points higher. over the past three seasnos it's about 18 points higher.

zeke
03-12-2008, 05:49 PM
what does this have to do with leading off an inning?

when you say "wasting a power hitter" in the first place, I'm assuming you're talking about batting with the bases empty - i.e. leading off an inning.


it has to do with 1) getting more opportunities at the plate and 2) having a consistent opportunity to hit in front of the teams better hitters.

a leadoff hitter averages 1 more at bat per game than the 8th or 9th hitters. you generally want a player with a high obp and speed in that spot. eckstein fits that role.

Exactly - you want your better hitters getting 162 more at bats per year than your lesser hitters.

Exactly.

Giving your worst hitter more at bats than anyone doesn't seem like the best way to maximize offesne.


besides, how many comparable leadoff hitters can you find to rios?

from world series winners?

Johnny damon springs to mind. Bernie Williams as well.



because the leadoff hitter is more likely to hit with nobody on base.

not true. Like you said, he gets one extra at bat a game - so he gets that one extra at bat with the bases empty, but then gets the same number of at bats with runners on.


because he usually either leads off the inning or hits behind the team's weakest hitters.

So you have a problem with Rios hitting 1st with Eckstein ahead of him in the 9th spot, but have no problem with Rios hitting 2nd with Eckstein ahead of him at the 1 spot? that doesn't make sense.

Eckstein/Zaun gives you two .350+ obps at the bottom of the lineup, which means the leadoff guy will be getting plento of at bats with runners on base.



rios's, yep. but like i said, i'd rather rios hitting in the heart of the order, with some protection by the likes of overbay/thomas or rolen/thomas.

But this would mean that we're sticking a Rolen or an Overbay or a Stairs all the way down in the 7th spot, while giving a much lesser hitter in Eckstein the #1 spot and the extra at bats.


hill? it would be pretty unlikely. eckstein's career obp is .10 points higher. last year his was more htan 20 points higher. over the past three seasnos it's about 18 points higher.

Hill is a baby. He's nowhere near his best yet, and nobody would be surprised to see him improve signifcantly on his career OVP this season. in fact, many would expect it.

othermike
03-12-2008, 07:30 PM
Too bad about Casey Janssen, no like he was going to take the league by fire but his big chance to really prove himself and now he's gotta sit out the whole year.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hnIi4MaO_KY-kRUUyLoUJe7QD6EQ

Fitzgerald#11
03-12-2008, 08:10 PM
forget about just this year, torn labrum is death a pitcher's career.

rated
03-12-2008, 08:20 PM
more at bats for our best hitters means more offense overall.

i like rios in the leadoff spot, but if you knew anything about baseball you would know you want your best hitters in a spot in the lineup to drive in alot of runs. this wont come from the lead off spot.

that's why you got guys like eckstein who can get on base so guys like Rios can drive them in.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-12-2008, 08:30 PM
i like rios in the leadoff spot, but if you knew anything about baseball you would know you want your best hitters in a spot in the lineup to drive in alot of runs. this wont come from the lead off spot.

that's why you got guys like eckstein who can get on base so guys like Rios can drive them in.

THANK YOU! :worshippy:

Hoss
03-12-2008, 09:00 PM
I think Rios will have a little more pop in his shots this year.. last year he started to show that power, but apparantly in BP he is just letting them fly... Wells was talking about it and he thinks Rios will improve in his HR numbers

Fitzgerald#11
03-12-2008, 09:11 PM
Plus he is playing for long term deal and you have to think another all star year (3rd straight) with 30-100-20 along with GG defense is gonna get him a 8 figure salary. Motivation will be easy to come by for him.

clubbies
03-12-2008, 09:15 PM
Plus he is playing for long term deal and you have to think another all star year (3rd straight) with 30-100-20 along with GG defense is gonna get him a 10 figure salary. Motivation will be easy to come by for him.

Wow... you think Rios is going to get a billion dollars?

Seriously though, maybe 4 years 50 million if he has another great year. Still has 3 years of arbitration eligibility.

Fitzgerald#11
03-12-2008, 09:17 PM
my bad, long day

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-12-2008, 09:25 PM
Plus he is playing for long term deal and you have to think another all star year (3rd straight) with 30-100-20 along with GG defense is gonna get him a 10 figure salary. Motivation will be easy to come by for him.

And to think JP wants to deal this guy all the time. He has more raw ability than Wells.

Fitzgerald#11
03-12-2008, 09:32 PM
Well I do think if your getting a guy like Lincecum you have to consider it. But yeah of course I'm happy to have him. Him Wells and Snider in a couple years time will be a nice triplet of 1st rd picks for us. Heck throw Lind in there as well

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-12-2008, 09:49 PM
No doubt.

Lind can be the DH.

Snider-Wells-Rios (wow!)

Lind as DH, Hill at 2B

Not shabby

Wayward DP
03-12-2008, 11:24 PM
I'd keep Overbay around as well. Really just need a catcher and shortshop

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 12:13 AM
Well what about Adams....tee hee!

Nah, I think Eck will be good for another year or two so maybe a new youngster will emerge then? Dunno.

Studin
03-13-2008, 01:40 AM
Why do we have such horrible luck with injuries?
On a side note, Janssen just won the Cy Young on my MLB 07 game :D

zeke
03-13-2008, 12:03 PM
i like rios in the leadoff spot, but if you knew anything about baseball you would know you want your best hitters in a spot in the lineup to drive in alot of runs. this wont come from the lead off spot.

that's why you got guys like eckstein who can get on base so guys like Rios can drive them in.


the thing is, we have many guys who are comparable to Rios in terms of power and run production - all of Wells, Rolen, Thomas, Overbay, and even Stairs can give us similar production numbers in the middle of the lineup.

so, because we have a pretty impressive lineup overall, we can afford a luxury that most teams can't - putting a power hitter up top of the lineup.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 01:47 PM
Well whatever but it is not going to happen.

Maybe the odd time here and there but Rios is the #3 hitter, this has been said many times by JP/Gibbons.

hairnova
03-13-2008, 01:49 PM
And Rios should be the #3 hitter.

zeke
03-13-2008, 01:50 PM
actually, no it hasn't.

worm
03-13-2008, 01:53 PM
jays will win the cup this year....this is the year they put the hitting and pitching together
**** the sox and the yanks

MyNameIsJonas
03-13-2008, 01:58 PM
yes the jays will win that "cup"

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 03:15 PM
actually, no it hasn't.

Actually it has. Deal with it. Rios is the #3 hitter as he should be. The best hitter on the team belongs in the 3 hole.

zeke
03-13-2008, 05:05 PM
If you think the best hitter should be hitting #3, then you should be wanting Thomas in the 3-hole.

zeke
03-13-2008, 05:08 PM
oh, and BTW, I'm not sure where you heard that Rios is confirmed as the #3 hitter, because it's just not true.

In fact, I'm not sure if he's been in the 3-hole even once so far this spring. Verno has been in the 3-hole every game he's played.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 05:18 PM
Well either way, he won't be leading off and that is the point.

I did misspeak about him hitting third, I didn't mean to say that it was confirmed that he would be in that spot because it is not. That is my own opinion of where he should hit, but also during the second half of last year he spent most of his time there as well.

However, the part that has come right from JP's and Gibbons own mouth going back to the second half of last season is Rios will not be leading off. His talents are better suited for the heart of the order. That is confirmed. And that is the point of this debate.

IMO, Rios should hit third because he is the best overall offensive player the Jays have and typically that third spot in the order is meant for that kind of player (ala Paul Moltior or a Robbie Alomar).

Wells has no business, until he proves he can play like he did in 2006, being in the third spot in the lineup. If Wells is healthy and productive than that is fine.

zeke
03-13-2008, 05:19 PM
Rios did hit in the 3-spot earlier on, but the past week or two he's been exclusively in the 1-2 spots.

So far this spring for Rios, games played in the:

1-hole: 1
2-hole: 4
3-hole: 3

hairnova
03-13-2008, 05:20 PM
If you think the best hitter should be hitting #3, then you should be wanting Thomas in the 3-hole.

Rios is the Jays best hitter.

zeke
03-13-2008, 05:23 PM
Rios is the Jays best hitter.

hasn't shown it yet.

hairnova
03-13-2008, 05:24 PM
When? This spring training?

zeke
03-13-2008, 05:27 PM
ever

zeke
03-13-2008, 05:50 PM
Spring Training Stats (only for players with a shot at a roster spot)

Starting Lineup

1) D.Eckstein (SS, 33): 20ab, 1hr, 6rbi, 0/0sb, .200avg, .333obp, .450slg, .783ops
2) A.Rios (RF, 27): 22ab, 0hr, 1rbi, 1/1sb, .136avg, .174obp, .227slg, .401ops
3) V.Wells (CF, 29): 23ab, 1hr, 6rbi, 1/2sb, .261avg, .292obp, .435slg, .727ops
4) F.Thomas (DH, 40): 24ab, 0hr, 1rbi, 0/0sb, .083avg, .083obp, .125slg, .208ops
5) L.Overbay (1B, 31): 25ab, 0hr, 2rbi, 0/0sb, .320avg, .414obp, .400slg, .814ops
6) S.Rolen (3B, 33): 18ab, 1hr, 1rbi, 1/1sb, .333avg, .429slg, .611slg, 1.040ops
7) M.Stairs (LF, 40): 15ab, 1hr, 2rbi, 0/0sb, .333avg, .333obp, .533slg, .866ops
8) G.Zaun (C, 37): 17ab, 1hr, 3rbi, 0/0sb, .235avg, .350obp, .471slg, .821ops
8) A.Hill (2B, 26): 20ab, 0hr, 5rbi, 2/3sb, .550avg, .625obp, .700slg, 1.325ops


Bench

R.Johnson (OF, 31): 27ab, 0hr, 1rbi, 0/0sb, .259avg, .333obp, .296slg, .629ops
R.Barajas (C, 33): 16ab, 0hr, 3rbi, 0/1sb, .313avg, .450obp, .500slg, .950ops
M.Scutaro (IF, 32): 18ab, 0hr, 2rbi, 1/1sb, .222avg, .286obp, .278slg, .564ops
J.McDonald (IF, 33): 17ab, 0hr, 1rbi, 0/0sb, .176avg, .211obp, .176slg, .387ops


Longshots

S.Stewart (OF, 34): 17ab, 0hr, 0rbi, 0/0sb, .294avg, .368obp, .529slg, .897ops
A.Lind (OF, 24): 20ab, 0hr, 3rbi, 0/0sb, .350avg, .350obp, .55oslg, .900ops
B.Coats (OF, 28): 22ab, 1hr, 3rbi, 2/3sb, .409avg, .480obp, .591slg, 1.081ops
J.Inglett (IF, 30): 23ab, 1hr, 4rbi, 1/2sb, .304avg, .333obp, .435slg, .768ops

CaptainBolduke
03-13-2008, 06:15 PM
Me thinks Stewart will make this team.

Wayward DP
03-13-2008, 06:21 PM
Stewart to me seems like the ideal pinch hitter, especially in situations with runners in scoring position and less than two out. He may not have the speed or power that he used to, but he's always been a very solid hitter overall, who can just about always put the ball in play.

hairnova
03-13-2008, 06:23 PM
ever

He was only your best player last season.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:19 PM
Frank Thomas is not the Jays best hitter.

Now your just arguing for the sake of arguing.

Leafin'
03-13-2008, 07:22 PM
Alex Rios is our best all-around hitter, but Vernon has shown in the past that he can outproduce anyone on this roster. This team has a ton of potential this year.

BUT, the same has been said the last 3 years and nothing, so im really not holding my breath for a playoff push just yet, as i dont really see any major improvements to the rotation, and same old question marks on our batting lineup.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:25 PM
Rios is a legit 5 tool talent and yes the best overall offensive talent on this team. Wells, as mentioned, has the potential to be as well.

Oh and Rios is only 26 years old.

da_next_kid
03-13-2008, 07:26 PM
Rios was the best hitter last season, it wasn't even close actually. Frank decided to take 90 games off.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:26 PM
I really don't understand you guys.

Thomas was a better hitter than Rios last year, has been a better hitter the past 3 years, and has been a better hitter his whole career.

IN what way is Rios a better hitter than Frank?

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:30 PM
Wow you love to twist things. You should be a politician Zeke.

Frank Thomas has had a legendary career and will be in the HOF without question.

However, at this stage in his career right now, Rios is a better hitter than he is. Thomas in his prime, trumps Rios obviously. But right now, 2007 and 2008, Rios is the better hitter.

Oh and, back to how this all started, Rios won't be leading off this year.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:32 PM
But Thomas was a better hitter than Rios last year.

Much higher OBP, and more home runs and rbi in far fewer at bats.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:35 PM
2007

F.Thomas: 531ab, 26hr, 95rbi, .277avg, .377obp, .480slg, .857ops
A.Rios: 643ab, 24hr, 85rbi, .297avg, .354obp, .498slg, .852ops

what are you guys talking about?

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:37 PM
Last 3 Seasons:

Thomas: 1102ab, 77hr, 235rbi, .269avg, .373obp, .518slg, .891ops
A.Rios: 1574ab, 51hr, 226rbi, .288avg, .339obp, .472slg, .811ops

clubbies
03-13-2008, 07:40 PM
Rios was 7th in the league in extra base hits, 6th in doubles, 5th in total bases. He had 117 runs created (9th in the AL). Thomas had 99.

They had very similar numbers last year. Thomas had the edge in OBP because he walked more often, but otherwise very similar. Thomas had more RBIs because he hit 4th every game.

Thomas is a hall-of-famer, but he's 40 and Rios is 27, just coming into his prime. The 3-year-split is really misleading because Rios hadn't developed his power 3 years ago and Thomas has regressed.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:40 PM
I'm not even saying that THomas will necessarily be better than rios this year, but he was last year, and most definitely over the past couple of years.

But the real point here is that the Jays have a lot of good hitters, all of whom have a chance to be our best hitter this year - Thomas, Rios, Wells, Rolen....even Overbay and Stairs (who was arguably actually our best hitter last year).

All those guys deserve to hit in the heart of the lineup - so the Jays now have the luxury of moving a very good hitter into a slot in the batting order that usually doesn't have that good an all-around hitter in it - and what I'm saying that it;s better to shift those good hitters UP a spot in the batting order than it is to shift them all DOWN the batting order, just to put a lesser hitter up top the order.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:41 PM
Rios had an AVG 20 points higher and a slugging precentage 18 points higher. Rios also scored 114 runs, hit 43 doubles, 7 triples, 17 stolen bases and had 10 outfield assits. He had 191 hits and also was made the all star team for the second straight year. He is only 26, Frank will be 40.

Also, Rios's RBI production is a tad lower only due to the fact he batted leadoff for half the year. If he had been in the heart of the order with more chances to drive in runs, he most likely would have topped 100.

More power, a 2 HR difference, better OPS a measly 5 point difference.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:42 PM
a 23 point better OBP, and more homers and rbi in far less at bats.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:43 PM
I will say this, Rios batting second doesn't bother me as much as him hitting 1st would.

He'd have good protection and most likely see more fastballs to drive in the 2 hole.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:43 PM
a 23 point better OBP, and more homers and rbi in far less at bats.

2 more homers, wow!

10 less RBI's only because he was batting leadoff for half the season.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:43 PM
He'd have plenty of protection in the 1-hole as well.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:44 PM
2 more homers, wow!

10 less RBI's only because he was batting leadoff for half the season.


again, in over 100 fewer at bats.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:45 PM
297 AVG, 114 RS, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 43 2B, 7 3B, 17 SB, 191 hits, 852 OPS (Thomas with 857).

Better overall hitter than Thomas in 2007.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:46 PM
Much higher OBP, higher OPS = better hitter

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:46 PM
Again, Rios leading off most of the year. If he was in the heart of the lineup, more chances to produce.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:46 PM
Much higher OBP, higher OPS = better hitter

BULL

clubbies
03-13-2008, 07:49 PM
Rios had a higher slugging. Ergo, more power. Part of the reason Thomas had less AB is because he walked more. Another reason is he is old and needs days off.

The stat with the closest correlation to runs scored is runs created per 27 outs or RC/G. Rios and Thomas were both at 6.6 RC/G last year. In other words, their offensive value was nearly identical. Obviously Rios is the better all around player because he plays a great RF and Thomas is a DH, but if you could isolate just the offensive side of the game, Rios was still a better player in 2007, mostly because of baserunning, also because of durability. But, it was very close.

However, I agree that Rios could bat 1st in this lineup. He doesn't NEED to hit in the middle in this lineup and he has a decent skill-set to hit at the top (speed, decent OBP, excellent SB ratio). 2nd behind Eckstein is maybe even more optimal. But when in doubt, give your best hitters more AB.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:50 PM
Again, Rios leading off most of the year. If he was in the heart of the lineup, more chances to produce.


interesting, though, that that's not true.

Rios -2007

As #1: 241ab, .835ops, 30rbi (.125rbi/ab)
As #3: 280ab, .811ops, 35rbi (.125rbi/ab)

He produced rbi at the identical pace in both the 1 and 2 slots, despite hitting just about the same at the plate.

another myth about the #1 hole shattered.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:52 PM
I'm more than fine with Rios in the #2 hole I'm fine with Rios in the 3 hole, too.

And I'm more than fine with Eckstein starting the year at leadoff - as long as Eckstein doesn't stay in the #1 slot if he's posting a .725ops while we've got guys with .800+ ops hitting down in the 7 or 8 slots.

clubbies
03-13-2008, 07:53 PM
interesting, though, that that's not true.

Rios -2007

As #1: 241ab, .835ops, 30rbi (.125rbi/ab)
As #3: 280ab, .811ops, 35rbi (.125rbi/ab)

He produced rbi at the identical pace in both the 1 and 2 slots, despite hitting just about the same at the plate.

another myth about the #1 hole shattered.

That's not a myth, that's an abuse of sample size. Run those numbers across the whole league and you'll get a different result. The #3 and #4 hitters come up with runners on base and RISP much more often than the leadoff guy. That's just a fact.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:54 PM
Wow Zeke, you just shattered over 100 years of Baseball history and tradition with regards to the leadoff hitter. :rolleyes(2):

You do not put your best overall offensive talent in the #1 spot. To maximize his offensive value you put him in a position to produce and that is in the heart of the order.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:55 PM
You make me out to be a radical for saying that Rios could hit in the leadoff spot - when he spent half the season at the leadoff spot last year already.

wow, how crazy of me.

zeke
03-13-2008, 07:56 PM
That's not a myth, that's an abuse of sample size. Run those numbers across the whole league and you'll get a different result. The #3 and #4 hitters come up with runners on base and RISP much more often than the leadoff guy. That's just a fact.

not in this lineup, I'd wager.

given that our bottom slot hitters have a similar OBP (or higher) as our top of the order hitters.

go up and down our lineup, and you can count on every hitter probaby posting between a .340-.360 obp, with the exceptions of Thomas (much higher) and Wells (much lower).

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 07:57 PM
And it is radical because the Jays have other options for the leadoff position now which they did not have last year due to injury.

Rios is the best overall offensive player this team has and now that we have other options should be used to maximize his offensive potential.

And it is the teams intention to this year use Rios in a more offensive minded role in the heart of the order.

And the team has said they don't want him leading off again this year.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 08:09 PM
Oh please, do you even remember Rios's 2006 campaign?

He was hitting 330 at the allstar break and on pace for over 30 HR's and over 110 RBI, his OPS was 968 at the break (330 AVG 15 HR 53 RBI in 270 AB).

If it wasn't for that that staff infection he got in his leg which caused him to miss 6 weeks and lose 23 pounds. Things would have been a lot different.

Look at his monthly splits and you can see July, August is when he returned from injury and wasn't the same. Then in September he was healthy and his OPS jumps back to 977 for that month.

April - 362 AVG .368 OBP .725 SLG 1.093 OPS 67 AB
May - 360 AVG . 413 OBP 596 SLG 1.009 OPS 114 AB
June - 264 AVG . 356 OBP 460 SLG .816 OPS 87 AB
[Injury starts at end of June, gone most of July)
July - 214 AVG .214 OBP .214SLG .428 OPS 14 AB
August - 198 AVG .245 OBP .281 SLG .526 OPS 96 AB
September - .333 AVG .371 OBP .606 SLG .977 OPS 66
October - 750 AVG 600 OBP 1000 SLG 1600 OPS 4 AB

He was well on his way to having a monster season and probably the best season of all the people you have on that list.

mbow30
03-13-2008, 08:12 PM
His 06 leadoff splits are noticeably absent.

He spent most of that season in either the 1 or 2 spot. batting first, 140 ab's, 27 rbi. batting 2nd 144 abs, 40 rbi.


and last year's a difficult season to use the jays splits, because at a lot of points during the year the #1/2 hitters were no better than the team's 7th and 8th batters, with the obp's posted by johnson/lind, overbay (the opening day #2 hitter), zaun and hill.

zeke
03-13-2008, 08:15 PM
You keep saying that "rios is the best overall offensive player on the team", when he's never posted a year close to what all of Wells, Rolen, Thomas, Overbay, and even Stairs have posted just within the last two years. hell, even Reed.

Here's each player's best offensive season, just from the last two years:

F.Thomas ('06): 466ab, 39hr, 114rbi, .270avg, .381obp, .545slg, .926ops
M.Stairs ('07): 357ab, 21hr, 64rbi, .289avg, .368obp, .549slg, .917ops
V.Wells ('06): 611ab, 32hr, 106rbi, .303avg, .357obp, .542slg, .899ops
S.Rolen ('06): 521ab, 22hr, 95rbi, .296avg, .369obp, .518slg, .887ops
L.Overbay ('06): 581ab, 22hr, 92rbi, .312avg, .372obp, .508slg, .880ops
Johnson ('06): 461ab, 12hr, 49rbi, .319avg, .390obp, .479slg, .869ops
A.Rios ('06): 542ab, 17hr, 82rbi, .302avg, .349obp, .516slg, .865ops
G.Zaun ('06): 290ab, 12hr, 40rbi, .272avg, .363obp, .462slg, .825ops
A.Hill ('07): 608ab, 17hr, 78rhbi, .291avg, .333obp, .459slg, .792ops
D.Eckstein ('07): 434ab, 3hr, 31rbi, .309avg, .356obp, .382slg, .738ops

This is just from the last two seasons.


Rios could easily be our 4th, 5th, or 6th best hitter this year.

The point is that there's no need to lock him in to the 3rd spot in any way - there's a lot of good players on this team with a ton of hitting potential, including two former MVPs.

Rios is a nice young hitter and all, but come on now.


and when you look at the above numbers, and see the top-end potential for all our hitters......I hope you guys can see why, if most of our hitters are hitting like they can, that it might be foolish to have David Eckstein getting more at bats than any other hitter on the team.

zeke
03-13-2008, 08:16 PM
Oh please, do you even remember Rios's 2006 campaign?

He was hitting 330 at the allstar break and on pace for over 30 HR's and over 110 RBI, his OPS was 968.

If it wasn't for that that staff infection he got in his leg which caused him to miss 2 months and lose 23 pounds. Things would have been a lot different.

Look at his monthly splits and you can see July, August is when he returned from injury and wasn't the same. Then in September he was healthy and his OPS jumps back to 977 for that month.

He was well on his way to having a monster season and probably the best season of all the people you have on that list.

you're absolutely right - but he had a better year overall at the plate in '06 than he did last year, other than a lesser amount of AB.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 08:23 PM
No Zeke, you said why was I calling Rios the best overall offensive talent when he has never shown he can be that over the last two years. Then you gave me a list from 06, 07.

Read my above post again and you'll most certainly see he would have had the best season out of them all if not for the infection in his leg.

Also, what kind of offensive team were the Jays last year as compared to 06?

zeke
03-13-2008, 08:30 PM
look, all I'm saying is that we have a whole bunch of hitters who have had fantastic years, just within the last two seasons, much better than Rios has ever had.

there's absolutely no reason why Rios should be a lock for the heart of the order, when you have these many potential slugging bats.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 08:33 PM
Now looking at his splits from 06 and 07, Rios seems to thrive as the #2 guy in the lineup which I'm not opposed to.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 08:35 PM
look, all I'm saying is that we have a whole bunch of hitters who have had fantastic years, just within the last two seasons, much better than Rios has ever had.

there's absolutely no reason why Rios should be a lock for the heart of the order, when you have these many potential slugging bats.

Well if everyone is healthy and rebounds then hopefully our offense will be cooking like it was in 2006. If all that stuff happens then maybe they can toy with it. Until that happens I don't think they can afford early on to have Rios leadoff.

Though Rios batting second really intrigues me.

clubbies
03-13-2008, 08:38 PM
Stairs was a beast last year. Just an absolute monster. I hope he can do it again, because he sure isn't pretty to watch on defence.

Zeke makes a good point that with Stairs, Zaun and Hill probably hitting 7-8-9, there is some solid OBP at the bottom of the lineup. If Rios leads off there will still be plenty of RBI opportunities, excluding his first at bat obviously. Not so much with Barajas or Johnny Mac in the lineup, though.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 08:40 PM
Well either way its going to be fun to see it shake out.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 08:41 PM
Eckstein
Rios
Wells
Rolen
Overbay (hitting 5th had a 862 OPS in 04, 863 in 05, 921 in 06)
Thomas
Stairs
Hill
Zaun

Johnson
Barajas
Stewart
Scutaro
McDonald

Fitzgerald#11
03-13-2008, 09:06 PM
I think Thomas has to be a little farther up there, cleanup for sure.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 09:41 PM
Well Thomas the last two years has gotten off to horrible first half starts. His 06, 07 numbers were largely because of big time post all star play. I'd start him 6th and if he gets off to a good start then you can move him up.

Though, unlike last year he is actually playing some spring training games. I was pleased to see the Jays didn't allow Thomas to do his own thing. Perhaps putting in the time is going to pay off?

Judging by the last 3 years (excluding 07 because he was hurt) Overbay hit very well from the 5 hole. I don't know why this is but that is what his trends show.

This whole idea of him hitting 2nd seems silly to me and he hasn't produced there. JP/Gibbons seem to want this very bad.

However, purely stats based Rios seems to be the logical #2 hitter and Overbay #5. They both seem comfortable there.

Just my thought's, we shall see.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-13-2008, 10:54 PM
Zeke, what do you think of Rolen thus far?

mbow30
03-13-2008, 11:09 PM
ya but even when thomas wasn't hitting he was still posting a good walk rate and thus a decent obp. he stretches pitchers, always works deep into counts plus there is an intimidation factor. you want him near the top of the order regardless of how well he's actually hitting the ball.

and to answer the question a few pages back about why not move thomas up from the 4th spot--he probably should be batting 3rd. the "cleanup spot" is more a pride thing than anything. how often does the cleanup hitter come to the plate with the bases loaded?

wiseguy1
03-13-2008, 11:38 PM
You keep saying that "rios is the best overall offensive player on the team", when he's never posted a year close to what all of Wells, Rolen, Thomas, Overbay, and even Stairs have posted just within the last two years. hell, even Reed.

Here's each player's best offensive season, just from the last two years:

F.Thomas ('06): 466ab, 39hr, 114rbi, .270avg, .381obp, .545slg, .926ops
M.Stairs ('07): 357ab, 21hr, 64rbi, .289avg, .368obp, .549slg, .917ops
V.Wells ('06): 611ab, 32hr, 106rbi, .303avg, .357obp, .542slg, .899ops
S.Rolen ('06): 521ab, 22hr, 95rbi, .296avg, .369obp, .518slg, .887ops
L.Overbay ('06): 581ab, 22hr, 92rbi, .312avg, .372obp, .508slg, .880ops
Johnson ('06): 461ab, 12hr, 49rbi, .319avg, .390obp, .479slg, .869ops
A.Rios ('06): 542ab, 17hr, 82rbi, .302avg, .349obp, .516slg, .865ops
G.Zaun ('06): 290ab, 12hr, 40rbi, .272avg, .363obp, .462slg, .825ops
A.Hill ('07): 608ab, 17hr, 78rhbi, .291avg, .333obp, .459slg, .792ops
D.Eckstein ('07): 434ab, 3hr, 31rbi, .309avg, .356obp, .382slg, .738ops

This is just from the last two seasons.


Rios could easily be our 4th, 5th, or 6th best hitter this year.

The point is that there's no need to lock him in to the 3rd spot in any way - there's a lot of good players on this team with a ton of hitting potential, including two former MVPs.

Rios is a nice young hitter and all, but come on now.


and when you look at the above numbers, and see the top-end potential for all our hitters......I hope you guys can see why, if most of our hitters are hitting like they can, that it might be foolish to have David Eckstein getting more at bats than any other hitter on the team.


One big flaw with this argument...many of those players on your list you would expect are likely to experience diminishing skills rather than improving.

I highly doubt it Thomas, Rolen, Eckstein, Stairs and Zahn will top those seasons...but Rios is a monster season waiting to happen...

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-14-2008, 02:33 AM
ya but even when thomas wasn't hitting he was still posting a good walk rate and thus a decent obp. he stretches pitchers, always works deep into counts plus there is an intimidation factor. you want him near the top of the order regardless of how well he's actually hitting the ball.

and to answer the question a few pages back about why not move thomas up from the 4th spot--he probably should be batting 3rd. the "cleanup spot" is more a pride thing than anything. how often does the cleanup hitter come to the plate with the bases loaded?

He is not a black hole like Glaus was or Wells. However, he was still an offensive hole the first half when it came in driving in runs which is his job.

A pride thing? Bases loaded? What are you talking about.

mbow30
03-14-2008, 11:41 AM
what am i talking about?

im' talking about the taboo surrounding the "clean up" spot.

it's silly. there's no real reason for putting your best power hitter in the 4 slot if that hitter also brings other good elements to the table. but the reason why thomas continues to hti there is because that's where he prefers to hit, for no other reason than that taboo.

mbow30
03-14-2008, 11:42 AM
He is not a black hole like Glaus was or Wells. However, he was still an offensive hole the first half when it came in driving in runs which is his job.


it doesn't matter.

he gets on base consistently, he stretches pitchers out and he makes it more difficult for teams to pitch around hitters in front of and behind him. it doens't matter if he's playing well or not, you want that type of hitter batting 3rd or 4th.

zeke
03-14-2008, 12:38 PM
One big flaw with this argument...many of those players on your list you would expect are likely to experience diminishing skills rather than improving.

I highly doubt it Thomas, Rolen, Eckstein, Stairs and Zahn will top those seasons...but Rios is a monster season waiting to happen...


If we were looking at seasons from years ago, I'd agree.....but given that this is just from the last 2 years, I don't think anyone would be shocked to see any of these players hit at those levels this year.

But let's be clear - I'm no way saying that we should EXPECT all these hitters to hit at that level. not at all.

zeke
03-14-2008, 12:39 PM
Zeke, what do you think of Rolen thus far?

knock on wood, the shoulder doesn't seem to be a problem.

and if it's not a problem at all, we might be able to expect a very good hitter.

mbow30
03-14-2008, 12:41 PM
if rolen is healthy, his ability to hit righties CANNOT be overlooked. it is very rare that you find a right handed hitting 30 hr, .300/.400/.500 guy who hits righties as well or even better than lefties.

Given To Fly
03-14-2008, 12:42 PM
Rolen could very well be our best hitter. Hes a stud. Great trade. His shoulder problem was one that could be healed [as it looks to be] where as glaus's injury can never be healed.

This trade was a steal for us, not to mention all the gold gloves Rolen has already won.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-14-2008, 12:42 PM
Yup, I like what I see from him but health (like Glaus) will always play a role.

msun your right, 4th hole is a myth for your best hitter to hit in. Usually your best hitter hits 3rd (Bond, Puljos, Ortiz, A-Rod).

Given To Fly
03-14-2008, 12:45 PM
Yup, I like what I see from him but health (like Glaus) will always play a role.

msun your right, 4th hole is a myth for your best hitter to hit in. Usually your best hitter hits 3rd (Bond, Puljos, Ortiz, A-Rod).

Health really shouldnt be an issue. Of course anyone can get hurt, but Rolen had a shoulder problem that had to be fixed. This is not a lingering injury that will dog him for the rest of his career.

Glaus on the other hand, has an injury that can NEVER be healed. Plus being shit in the field, this trade should work out in spades for us.

Rolen is also a real gamer. Hes a dirt-and-wood type player, a 'Dirtbag' as JP reference him to in his PC. Those are the kinds of guys you need to win championships.

zeke
03-14-2008, 01:00 PM
Health really shouldnt be an issue. Of course anyone can get hurt, but Rolen had a shoulder problem that had to be fixed. This is not a lingering injury that will dog him for the rest of his career.


Except that this same shoulder problem has dogged him for 3-4 years now.

They say it's fixed now, but they said that before.

fingers crossed.

and remember, even though he was injured, Glaus was still a damn good hitter for us while he was here. Probably the best Jays hitter over the course of both the last two years.

Given To Fly
03-14-2008, 01:16 PM
Except that this same shoulder problem has dogged him for 3-4 years now.

They say it's fixed now, but they said that before.

fingers crossed.

and remember, even though he was injured, Glaus was still a damn good hitter for us while he was here. Probably the best Jays hitter over the course of both the last two years.

Well the shoulder should now be 100%. He even said that he missed time not because of this shoulder but other things that came up just from playing the style that he does.

The shoulder took a step back due to scar tissue more then re-injuring it.

And Glaus might have provided power, but best 'hitter' only b/c of bad years from Wells, and Thomas with the slow start, but average wise Glaus has never provided anything to write home about. Rolen will get you 30/100 and hit .300

Plus with his play in the field, how can you not like this trade.

And if injury history is a concern, Glaus, as mentioned, has an injury history aswell, and one that can never be healed.

Rolen is going to be a leader for us, he will lead by example, and he simply just flat out loves the game. His attitude alone will provide so much for this team moving forward.

you can say the same about Eckstein, hes also cut from that cloth, hes a gamer, and he will give it 110% game in and game out.

Two superb additions for this club.

hairnova
03-14-2008, 02:44 PM
msun your right, 4th hole is a myth for your best hitter to hit in. Usually your best hitter hits 3rd (Bond, Puljos, Ortiz, A-Rod).

A-Rod hits fourth in the Yanks lineup.

Abreu is third in the lineup because he's an excellent hitter, walks a lot, etc.

mbow30
03-14-2008, 02:54 PM
Except that this same shoulder problem has dogged him for 3-4 years now.

They say it's fixed now, but they said that before.

fingers crossed.

and remember, even though he was injured, Glaus was still a damn good hitter for us while he was here. Probably the best Jays hitter over the course of both the last two years.

nah that would be rios. FT and rios both hit better than him last year, wells the year before.

but a healthy rolen is a mcuh more efficient, effective and better hitter than glaus. if rolen's healthy then the blue jays have a super star, top notch, hall of fame quality third baseman.

Given To Fly
03-14-2008, 03:07 PM
4th hole is a myth for your best hitter to hit in. Usually your best hitter hits 3rd (Bond, Puljos, Ortiz, A-Rod).

Your best hitter usually hits in the 3 hole. The 4th spot is for your 'power guy'

You should also have a typically 3 hole hitter as your number 5 as well. You need guys in your 3 and 5 hole that will not only hit homers, but has good gap power, but that can also take the walk.

but speaking of baseball myths, my two favorite are 'your worst OF plays in RF" when really your worst of is your LF. You need your strongest arm in RF as the longest throw in baseball is from the RF fence to 3b.

The other great myth is your worst hitter bats 9th. When really your worst hitters bats 8th, and your 9th hitter should have the qualities of your leadoff guy. A guy with speed who can get on base and be a 'table setter' for your best hitters, 2-5.

zeke
03-14-2008, 04:48 PM
encouraging first outing from ryan today - one perfect inning, 2 ks.

mbow30
03-14-2008, 05:24 PM
encouraging first outing from ryan today - one perfect inning, 2 ks.

here's hoping.

if he can come back, wiht league seemingly back to form they really aren't going to miss janssen out of the pen. of course, i was excited about seeing him move back to the rotation, but litsch pitched well last year and deserves another shot.

BG
03-14-2008, 10:42 PM
Not to hijack the thread, but I didn't want to start another OT Baseball thread here.

I've got a Yahoo draft coming up and was wondering if anyone had a good 2008 cheatsheet or an online resource to put a solid draft list together.

Also any advice would be appreciated.

It's a Yahoo H2H, 16 team, 25 player, 6off cats and 6pitching cats.

Thanks.

Given To Fly
03-15-2008, 12:24 AM
Grab a fantasy magazine, spend a couple hours going over everything and that will help.

you can also google some of these magazine writers mock drafts.

with a magazine and a few online mock drafts you'll get a good handle on things.

zeke
03-15-2008, 03:11 PM
Seems like Gibbons is getting a handle on what he wants his lineup to look like.

Here's what it looks like today, with a full starting lineup for the 1st time all spring:

1) Eckstein
2) Rios
3) Wells
4) Rolen
5) Thomas
6) Stairs
7) Overbay
8) Hill
9) Zaun


not sure that it;s a good idea to put the two lefties back to back, but at least we're getting a look at what Gibbons general first-try ideas are.

mbow30
03-15-2008, 03:33 PM
i'd swap wells down to 6, overbay to 3 and stairs 7.

give wells some protection between either rolen and thomas and the lefty stairs. get overbay some more at bats higher in the order. i think overbay returning to form is even more important than wells because they need to improve vs. rhp and wells is never going to be great against righties. so give overbay every chance you can to get him back to where he was in 2006.

besides, if everybody gets going, thomas hitting behind three guys who can get on base (eckstein/rios/overbay) should provide him with plenty of opportunities to rack up those rbi.

zeke
03-15-2008, 03:42 PM
yeah, but it's a total feel-out process right now - we really have to see which guys are bouncing back the best out of Overbay, Wells, Rolen....and if Stairs and Thomas can pick up where they left off last season.

we're going to have to let their hitting determine the batting order, not our expectations.



nice outing from Halladay today - 5.0ip, 4h, 0bb, 4k, 0r

zeke
03-15-2008, 03:44 PM
In the somewhat unlikely (but possible) scenario where every one of our hitters is hitting like he "should" hit, I'd still go with this:

1) Rios
2) Overbay
3) Rolen
4) Thomas
5) Wells
6) Stairs
7) Hill
8) Zaun
9) Eckstein

Given To Fly
03-15-2008, 04:48 PM
I like the look of;

1) Eckstein
2) Rios
3) Wells
4) Thomas
5) Rolen
6) Overbay
7) Stairs
8) Zaun
9) Hill

Wayward DP
03-15-2008, 05:28 PM
Personally I like

Eckstein
Rios
Rolen
Thomas
Overbay
Wells
Stairs
Zaun
Hill

da_next_kid
03-15-2008, 06:55 PM
Eckstein
Overbay
Rios
Wells
Thomas
Rolen
Stairs
Zaun
Hill

JaysCyYoung
03-15-2008, 07:07 PM
Starting Line-up

1.) SS David Eckstein
2.) RF Alex Rios
3.) CF Vernon Wells
4.) DH Frank Thomas
5.) 3B Scott Rolen
6.) 1B Lyle Overbay
7.) LF Matt Stairs
8.) 2B Aaron Hill
9.) C Gregg Zaun

Bench

1.) LF Shannon Stewart
2.) OF Reed Johnson
3.) UT Marco Scutaro
4.) UT John McDonald
5.) C Rod Barajas
6.) DH/LF Adam Lind

Not a bad line-up. There's a deep bench and a lot of depth at various positions. It's nice to see that J.P. addressed the lack of serviceable role players that the team had last season and will now boast one of the deepest benches in the league (like the Jays had in 2006). This is going to be an integral component of the team considering the injury histories of a significant portion of the regular line-up.

If all goes well on the injury front and the team manages to stay healthy, however, that line-up could easily score enough runs to rank amongst the top five teams in the American League. The Jays boast one of the top three pitching staffs and an excellent bullpen, so that would be immensely helpful in determining the team's playoff chances in September. The Yankees pitching is unimpressive by comparison, although they can still rake, and Boston should once again be the class of the AL with an other-worldly offence and incredibly talented young prospects playing supporting roles.

hairnova
03-15-2008, 07:18 PM
The Jays boast one of the top three pitching staffs and an excellent bullpen, so that would be immensely helpful in determining the team's playoff chances in September. The Yankees pitching is unimpressive by comparison...

I still don't understand how people think the Jays pitching is so great.

JaysCyYoung
03-15-2008, 07:19 PM
The fact that they finished second in the American League in ERA behind Boston at 3.99 and had the best starting ERA in BASEBALL after July 1?

hairnova
03-15-2008, 07:23 PM
Fair enough.

mbow30
03-15-2008, 07:33 PM
according to espn mag pitching rankings, the jays are the only team in the league with 3 starters in the top 35.

very few top-3's are as good as halladay-burnett-mcgowan.

Wayward DP
03-15-2008, 07:58 PM
Except Burnett hasn't thrown a curve yet, Marcum is recovering from surgery, Halladay has had major injuries how many of the past seasons, and McGowan has had one good year.

This staff definitely has the potential to be fantastic, but there are still some question marks lurking around.

Wayward DP
03-15-2008, 07:58 PM
And Gibbons sucks

JaysCyYoung
03-15-2008, 08:06 PM
Except Burnett hasn't thrown a curve yet, Marcum is recovering from surgery, Halladay has had major injuries how many of the past seasons, and McGowan has had one good year.

This staff definitely has the potential to be fantastic, but there are still some question marks lurking around.

Halladay has not had any injuries that can be considered the "recurring type" or injuries that will likely occur again in the future. He has not had any shoulder or elbow problems to speak of and the two injuries that caused him to miss significant time were the result of:

1.) A liner back to the mound that broke his shin and caused him to miss being the AL starter in the All-Star Game in 2005 (ie. a freak injury).

and

2.) An appedectomy, which you can only have once and is also classified as a freak injury.

He is as durable as they come. Period.

hairnova
03-15-2008, 08:07 PM
I'm sure Halladay will probably take a bat off the leg or something this year.

Wayward DP
03-15-2008, 08:08 PM
Halladay has not had any injuries that can be considered the "recurring type" or injuries that will likely occur again in the future. He has not had any shoulder or elbow problems to speak of and the two injuries that caused him to miss significant time were the result of:

1.) A liner back to the mound that broke his shin and caused him to miss being the AL starter in the All-Star Game in 2005 (ie. a freak injury).

and

2.) An appedectomy, which you can only have once and is also classified as a freak injury.

He is as durable as they come. Period.

I remember recently he missed time basically because of fatigue and pain in his shoulder. Although I do generally agree about Halladay's durability, just seems he always finds a way to take himself out of the lineup.

mbow30
03-15-2008, 08:38 PM
at the end of '06 they shut him down, but said that it was the sort of fatigue they would have let him pitch through if they were still in the race. but he was 4th in ip in 06 and 3rd in 07, so there really aren't any concerns there.


as for burnett, apparently he has been throwing a wicked nasty change that he doesn't normally throw (and hey--teh fingernail will grow back). as for mcgowan's one good season... well, a few things.

first, he did what was expected of him before the tommy john. last year only snuck up on people because of his struggles post-tj. before the surgery he was seen as a cant miss prospect. he was at one time compared to a young halladay and considered by some to be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. in fact, some thought he had the potential to be even better than halladay (which probably won't happen at this point but it merely exemplifies his immense talents).

second, mcgowan got significantly better as the season progressed. teams got to see him two or three times around and they coudln't find any holes.

third, power pitchers with good breaking stuff aren't like pitchers like litsch, marcum, chacin who have some deceptive pitches but not overly great stuff. a lot of pitchers can start theri careers off well until a weakness is exploited or an out pitch stops fooling major leaguers. that simply isn't the case for mcgowan. his stuff is very hard and with tons of liveliness. he doesn't need pinpoint accuracy or just one pitch to be good. he started catching guys on fastballs with two strikes once he had confidence later in the year.

the only thing that can derail him at this point is injuries. i would be very, very surprised to see mcgowan fall off for any other reason. the kid's got an amazing arm.

not sold on marcum but then... even if he finds a median between his first half and second half, he's a pretty good pitcher, a passable 3rd starter and phenomenal as a 4th starter.

litsch has question marks, though. i am far from sold on him because he doesn't have much velocity. we coudl have a josh towers on our hands there, although he was very impressive last season.

hairnova
03-15-2008, 08:45 PM
So what will be the Jays starting rotation going into the season?

Fitzgerald#11
03-15-2008, 08:51 PM
Halladay
Burnett
McGowan
Marcum
Litsch

Wayward DP
03-15-2008, 08:56 PM
Hmm could really use a lefty in there, potentially in the five spot. I'm not too impressed with Litsch, but so far he's put up good numbers so who knows

Fitzgerald#11
03-16-2008, 01:56 PM
Hey anyone here intrested in joining a keeper league. I'm a league with a couple of guys here from this forum and were looking a for someone who wants to take over a team. The draft is all but done and the team you would get would look like this:

C - Geovany Soto

1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Brandon Phillips
3B - David Wright
SS- Yuniel Escobar

OF - Grady Sizemore
OF - Chris Young
OF - Eric Byrnes
OF - Matt Kemp
OF - Aaron Rowand

1B - Carlos Delgado
SS - Ryan Theriot

SP - Cole Hamels
SP - Fausto Carmona
SP - Roy Oswalt
SP - Chad Billingsley
SP - Phil Hughes
SP - Rich Harden

RP - Manny Corpas
RP - Rafeal Soriano
RP - Brandon Lyon
RP - CJ Wilson

Its standard H2H scoring and this league is in its 4th year now. Very competitive aswell. Just ask axslinger, montana, habspatrol, blueman. PM me if intrested.

hairnova
03-16-2008, 01:58 PM
That's a pretty good team.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
03-16-2008, 02:04 PM
You do not want Delgado what so ever. Not only was he brutal last year but he has a hip problem now. He is declining at a rapid rate.

Fitzgerald#11
03-16-2008, 03:28 PM
I've found an owner so disregard my last post

leaffan2005
03-16-2008, 04:09 PM
Here is my team for the money league I participate in with my friends every year. (14 team, standard 5x5 H2H league)

C - Joe Mauer
1B - Mark Texeira
2B - Rickie Weeks
SS - Carlos Guillen
3B - Aramis Ramirez
OF - Matt Holliday
OF - Willie Tavares
OF - Jermaine Dye
Util - Yunel Escobar

Bench - Billy Butler

SP - Roy Oswalt
SP - A.J. Burnett
RP - Brad Lidge
RP - Joba Chamberlain
P - Jered Weaver
P - Tedd Lilly
P - Brian Wilson

Bench - Greg Maddux
Bench - Sean Hill
Bench - Andy Sonnanstine
Bench - Manny Parra

drewser
03-16-2008, 10:04 PM
Drafted my team for a keeper league yesterday...15 teams with 20 players each...we had to do the draft in auction format, which I'd never done, but pretty happy with my team:

1st-James Loney
CI-Paul Konerko
2nd- Rickie Weekes
3rd-A-Rod
MI- Yunel Escobar
SS- JJ Hardy
C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia
OF- Carl Crawford,Adam Jones, Rick Ankiel, Melky Cabrera
Util-Carlos Gomez
SP- Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Jeremy Bonderman, Derek Lowe, Micah Owings
RP- Joe Borowski, Rafael Soriano, Jason Isringhausen

zeke
03-17-2008, 12:34 PM
I still don't understand how people think the Jays pitching is so great.

the others have answered, but I'll just add:

1) The Jays have 3 ace-quality arms at the top of their rotation - not many teams have that.
2) The Jays' current 4-5 starters posted better numbers last year than any 4-5 starters for any team going into this season.
3) The Jays have an ace Closer in Ryan, and have a very good closer from last year as their setup man.
4) They were one of the best pitching staffs in baseball last year, an are for the most part pretty young.

zeke
03-17-2008, 12:37 PM
It's funny that the Jays seemed to have Janssen pencilled in as the #5 this year - not sure why that was. It's not like we haven't seen him start before.

Here's how he and Litsch compared as rookie starters:

C.Janssen (25): 91.1ip, 6-10, 5.22era, 4.13k/9, 2.07bb/9, 2.00k/bb, 1.30whip, .757oops
J.Litsch (22): 111.0ip, 7-9, 3.81era, 4.05k/9, 2.91bb/9, 1.39k/bb, 1.37whip, .759oops

Fitzgerald#11
03-17-2008, 12:43 PM
Tough to get a better 5th starter then we have with Litsch but it would of been nice to have one of our lefty 1st rounders, Romero or Purcey in the rotation by now.

zeke
03-17-2008, 02:10 PM
Spring Training Stats (only for players with a shot at a roster spot)

Starting Lineup

1) D.Eckstein (SS, 33): 26ab, 1hr, 6rbi, 0/0sb, .154avg, .267obp, .346slg, .613ops
2) A.Rios (RF, 27): 28ab, 0hr, 1rbi, 1/1sb, .179avg, .207obp, .393slg, .600ops
3) V.Wells (CF, 29): 29ab, 1hr, 6rbi, 1/2sb, .276avg, .300obp, .448slg, .748ops
4) F.Thomas (DH, 40): 27ab, 0hr, 0rbi, 0/0sb, .037avg, .037obp, .074slg, .111ops
5) L.Overbay (1B, 31): 30ab, 0hr, 3rbi, 0/0sb, .367avg, .441obp, .500slg, .941ops
6) S.Rolen (3B, 33): 21ab, 1hr, 1rbi, 1/1sb, .333avg, .481slg, .619slg, 1.100ops
7) M.Stairs (LF, 40): 19ab, 1hr, 4rbi, 0/0sb, .316avg, .350obp, .526slg, .876ops
8) G.Zaun (C, 37): 20ab, 1hr, 3rbi, 0/0sb, .200avg, .304obp, .400slg, .704ops
9) A.Hill (2B, 26): 23ab, 0hr, 6rbi, 2/3sb, .478avg, .552obp, .609slg, 1.161ops


Bench

R.Johnson (OF, 31): 31ab, 0hr, 1rbi, 0/0sb, .290avg, .353obp, .355slg, .708ops
R.Barajas (C, 33): 23ab, 0hr, 3rbi, 0/1sb, .261avg, .370obp, .435slg, .805ops
M.Scutaro (IF, 32): 24ab, 0hr, 4rbi, 1/1sb, .208avg, .259obp, .292slg, .551ops
J.McDonald (IF, 33): 21ab, 0hr, 2rbi, 1/2sb, .286avg, .333obp, .286slg, .619ops


Longshots

S.Stewart (OF, 34): 21ab, 0hr, 0rbi, 0/0sb, .238avg, .333obp, .429slg, .762ops
A.Lind (OF, 24): 20ab, 0hr, 3rbi, 0/0sb, .350avg, .350obp, .55oslg, .900ops
B.Coats (OF, 28): 22ab, 1hr, 3rbi, 2/3sb, .409avg, .480obp, .591slg, 1.081ops
J.Inglett (IF, 30): 23ab, 1hr, 4rbi, 1/2sb, .304avg, .333obp, .435slg, .768ops

mbow30
03-17-2008, 02:18 PM
word is that they're mulling a deal involving johnson (i think i heard with the mets) so that they can save some dough and platoon stairs/stewart. it hurts the team defensively but then again, when johnson returend last year he seemed to have lost a few steps and didn't look nearly as good in the field. and we all know how tricky back injuries can be.

as for comparing litsch/janssen, litsch looked great last year but then so did chacin in his rookie year. i'm certainly not against giving litsch another look, but he has very limited stuff adn relies way too much on location for my liking. which doesnt' mean he can't forge a great career based on his location, but pitchers like that who do are rare

CaptainBolduke
03-17-2008, 03:03 PM
Thomas is tearing the cover off the ball this Spring

zeke
03-17-2008, 03:04 PM
as for comparing litsch/janssen, litsch looked great last year but then so did chacin in his rookie year. i'm certainly not against giving litsch another look, but he has very limited stuff adn relies way too much on location for my liking. which doesnt' mean he can't forge a great career based on his location, but pitchers like that who do are rare

you can say the exact same thing about Janssen.

zeke
03-17-2008, 03:05 PM
today's batting order:

1) Eckstein
2) Rios
3) Wells
4) Rolen
5) Thomas
6) Stewart
7) Overbay
8) Hill
9) Zaun

clubbies
03-17-2008, 03:46 PM
It's funny that the Jays seemed to have Janssen pencilled in as the #5 this year - not sure why that was. It's not like we haven't seen him start before.

Here's how he and Litsch compared as rookie starters:

C.Janssen (25): 91.1ip, 6-10, 5.22era, 4.13k/9, 2.07bb/9, 2.00k/bb, 1.30whip, .757oops
J.Litsch (22): 111.0ip, 7-9, 3.81era, 4.05k/9, 2.91bb/9, 1.39k/bb, 1.37whip, .759oops

Janssen pitched with a back injury in his rookie year. He concealed it from the team and they ended up getting pretty upset at him about it. His numbers looked much better before he got injured.

And the main reason people wanted Casey in there is his stuff. He throws harder than Litsch and induces even more ground balls... and Litsch is a solid groundballer.

I like them both though. I think Litsch will be fine. Too much is made of the fact that he doesn't light up the radar gun. The pitch f/x data shows he has more movement on his sinker, cutter and change than almost anyone in baseball.

Fitzgerald#11
03-17-2008, 04:31 PM
Looks its only a matter of time till Reed is traded. Stairs and Stewert platoon should be pretty effective but hopefully Lind tears it up in AAA and is playing full time by June.

mbow30
03-17-2008, 05:46 PM
you can say the exact same thing about Janssen.

janssen's fastball tops off at 92-94. litsch's at 84-88, so no, you can't say the same thing about janssen.

zeke
03-17-2008, 06:23 PM
except for that's not true, as both top out at around 91-92mph, of course.

mbow30
03-17-2008, 07:01 PM
except for that's not true, as both top out at around 91-92mph, of course.

except it is true.

litsch legitimately hit 90 less than five times last year. he doesn't throw 91-92. and janssen topped out at 91-92 a few years back but last year adjusted his mechanics and was topping out at 93-94.

JaysCyYoung
03-17-2008, 07:08 PM
except it is true.

litsch legitimately hit 90 less than five times last year. he doesn't throw 91-92. and janssen topped out at 91-92 a few years back but last year adjusted his mechanics and was topping out at 93-94.

Really? Everything that I've read seems to support what Zeke is saying here.

From Battersbox.ca (interview with one of the Jays scouts):

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050814190025330


He (Janssen) did give up three runs in one inning last night, but I thought one ball should have been caught in the outfield, one was a broken bat single and the third was a little quail down the right field line, so it wasn’t like they were hitting him around the park. And after he gave up the three runs he still had a runner on third with no outs, and he struck out a couple to get out of it, then he struck out two in each of the next two innings after that. He throws 90-92, has a good cut fastball, he has a good idea out there.


On Jesse Litsch, another scouting report: He is pretty advanced guy for a 20 year old. He can throw his breaking ball for strikes and locates his fastball well for that level. He has a good mound presence, he is the type of guy who could move quickly through the system, although he is younger. His fastball is around 91-93.

zeke
03-17-2008, 07:11 PM
zeke > mbow

mbow30
03-17-2008, 07:18 PM
no, i'm positive.

litsch's fastball averages 88. he very, very rarely hit 90 and usually, after 3-4 innings, dropped off to about 86.

and janssen was routinely hitting 94 last year. maybe not if he's in the rotation, but part of the big adjustment last year was that his fastball picked up 2-3 mph

PlayerToBeNamedLater
03-17-2008, 07:28 PM
Baseball America's top 20 Prospects of 2008:

1. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds
2. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays
3. Joba Chamberlain RHP, Yankees
4. Clay Buchholz, RHP, Red Sox
5. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cards
6. Cameron Maybin, OF, Marlins
7. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers
8. Franklin Morales, LHP, Rockies
9. Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds
10. David Price, LHP, Rays

11. Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays
4: Major categories in which he led the Midwest League in 2007: slugging percentage (.523), doubles (35), extra-base hits (58) and RBIs (93).

12. Matt Wieters, C, O's
13. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox
14. Andrew McCutchen, OF Pirates
15. Jake McGee, LHP, Rays
16. Brandon Wood, 3B/SS, Angles
17. Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
18. Mike Moustaka, SS, Royals
19. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers
20. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets


Good to see Snider doing very well. Also, the Rays got a ton of quality arms -- 3 in the top 20.

JaysCyYoung
03-17-2008, 07:32 PM
From Wikipedia (not the greatest source I realize, but it helps to illustrate the point):
Janssen throws six different pitches: a four-seam fastball that tops out at 92 mph, a two-seamer, a cutter, a curveball, a change-up and a slider. Although he is not an overpowering pitcher, thus far in his career Janssen has been very successful in upsetting hitters' timing and inducing weakly hit balls. In his first two months in the majors, he proved to be a groundball pitcher who allows few line drives.

From Sporstnet.ca:


Assets: Throws a deep arsenal with good command, including a 90-m.p.h. two-seamer, a slider, change-up and curveball. Induces a lot of groundballs.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/players/Casey_Janssen

mbow30
03-17-2008, 07:35 PM
once again, janssen USED TO top out at 92. last year he changed his mechanics and was topping out at 94.

and if litsch was really throwing 91-92 regularly do you REALLY think that there would be questions about his velocity? i mean, just be logical. litsch seldom hit 90 last year. very, very seldomly and that was with the sometimes generous skydome gun.

zeke
03-17-2008, 08:51 PM
well, yeah, there would be questions - because 91-92 isn't all that great, unless you've got a big hook.

Litsch's lack of heat is a strike against him, but it's also a strike against Janssen.

clubbies
03-18-2008, 04:01 AM
no need to speculate or cite wikipedia.

Fangraphs has all kinds of pitch data from the last 3 years. They have average pitch velocity and the percentage of each pitch they threw.

Jesse Litsch's (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3688&position=P)fastball averaged 88.3mph last year. He threw less than 20% fastballs because he throws mostly cutters (40%+). His cutter averages 84.6 mph, which is why it looks like he's throwing junk, but that pitch dances.

Janssen's (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7355&position=P)fastball averaged 90.9mph in 2007, but he threw harder in the bullpen. In 2006, when he was in the rotation it was 89.2 mph average. His cutter is about 3-4 mph harder than Litsch's.


Having said that, Janssen can throw harder, there's no doubt. I remember seeing him hit 95mph last year at least a couple of times. Litsch can't do that, but he can dial it up into the low 90s if need be. But he's most effective with that mid-80s cutter.

Fangraphs.com is awesome by the way. Check out the projections. It has projections from 5 different systems. The best page for baseball stats out there in my opinion.

mbow30
03-18-2008, 09:20 AM
ZEKE YOU JUST GOT F'ED IN THE A

clubbies
03-18-2008, 09:54 AM
Speaking of throwing hard...

Justin Verlander has the highest average fastball velocity in the majors (among starters)

#2: A.J. Burnett

#3: Dustin McGowan

mbow30
03-18-2008, 10:01 AM
if mcgowan's arm holds up he is going to be one hell of a pitcher. love that guy's makeup. the 98 mph heater and the guzman-like slider make him tough to hit.

clubbies
03-18-2008, 10:06 AM
also, the chops.

I think he has top-5 stuff in baseball. That doesn't mean much, in a way, because he could get hurt or just never put it together, or only put it together once he's moved on (like Kelvim Escobar). But the potential is there.

zeke
03-18-2008, 11:19 AM
As Starters:

Litsch: 88.3
Janssen: 89.2

zeke > mbow

hairnova
03-18-2008, 11:23 AM
So what's the argument anyway?

mbow30
03-18-2008, 11:32 AM
As Starters:

Litsch: 88.3
Janssen: 89.2

zeke > mbow

well, no, the point i was making was that janssen has the ability to kick the heat up and throw a harder pitch.

if he would rather sit on hsi cutter, or if he can get by without the extra velocity so be it but he can do it if he needs to make outs.

velocity was a concern for janssen a few years ago but not any more.

and even still, a 1 mph difference in average could actually be quite significant, especially since, as we now know, he can manipulate how much shoulder he gets into that particular pitch.

zeke
03-18-2008, 11:32 AM
of course, a guy I'm worried about this year is actually Marcum. seemed like hitters really figured him out last year.

and, according to that sight, Marcum's heater averaged 87.6.

zeke
03-18-2008, 11:33 AM
great site, btw, CLUBBIES.

mbow30
03-18-2008, 11:33 AM
So what's the argument anyway?

that little zeke has the mental capacity of a beagle.

mbow30
03-18-2008, 11:35 AM
of course, a guy I'm worried about this year is actually Marcum. seemed like hitters really figured him out last year.

and, according to that sight, Marcum's heater averaged 87.6.

there is definite concern around marcum, although he also usually throws harder than litsch (he has more movement on the fastball so he sits on it more, too).

but his out pitch is that changeup which hitters had a ton of problems with. it's also tough to get a read on him since he was fatigued adn then hurt late in the season.

definitely question marks, though. i don't think he'll be as godo as he was in the first half last year, and if he can settle on the median (between where he started the year and where he finished it) he should be a perfectly fine 4th starter.

zeke
03-18-2008, 11:36 AM
So what's the argument anyway?


it's just adorable little mbow trying to explain how an 88.3 mph fastball average means a pitcher can't bring the heat, while an 89.2 mph fastball average means a pitcher has no issues with a lack of speed.

mbow30
03-18-2008, 11:38 AM
it's just adorable little mbow trying to explain how an 88.3 mph fastball average means a pitcher can't bring the heat, while an 89.2 mph fastball average means a pitcher has no issues with a lack of speed.

which is, of course, statistically incorrect since last year janssen averaged 91mph on his fastball.

which proved that he can, in fact, throw significantly harder than litsch.

hairnova
03-18-2008, 11:40 AM
The best thing I've read all morning is the season previews written on sportsnet by Blue Jays third man in the booth, Scott Carson. He basically rips up everything about the Yankees, saying everything is a question mark (how they don't have a bench...which they do, etc), but brags up the Jays and how they have so much potential...yet still picks the Yanks to finish second in the division. Nice one.

zeke
03-18-2008, 11:49 AM
what a great site.

Halladay (4ptch): 91.1fb (47.0%), 89.8cut (25.2%), 77.7crv (21.9%), 83.3chg (6.0%)
Burnett (3ptch): 95.1fb (66.7%), 82.1crv (26.3%), 88.1chg (7.1%)
McGowan (4+ptch): 94.7fb (59.2%), 87.0sld (19.1%), 86.5chg (10.7%), 81.0crv (9.6%), 92.2cut (1.4%)
Marcum (5ptch): 87.8fb (40.3%), 81.5chg (20.4%), 85.4cut (15.2%), 80.8sld (14.3%), 74.2crv (9.8%)
Litsch (5ptch): 84.6cut (40.6%), 88.3fb (18.9%), 76.2crv (16.3%), 80.4chg (13.2%), 81.5sld (11.0%)


well, here's why Litsch looks slower - he just rarely ever throws a straight fastball. he relies on his cut fastball more than most anyone.

zeke
03-18-2008, 11:50 AM
which is, of course, statistically incorrect since last year janssen averaged 91mph on his fastball.

which proved that he can, in fact, throw significantly harder than litsch.


cute little mbow doesn't understand how a 1 inning pitcher's average velocity will obviously be significantly higher than a 6 inning pitcher.

Volcanologist
03-18-2008, 11:54 AM
I'm disturbed by your use of adorable and cute in reference to dudes.

zeke
03-18-2008, 11:56 AM
not sure what to think of Litsch using his straight fastball so rarely.

does that make his lack of heat a bigger or smaller issue.

I mean, Towers had no heat, but he still had to rely on his straight fastball 60% of the time, which is why he stunk.

zeke
03-18-2008, 11:57 AM
I'm disturbed by your use of adorable and cute in reference to dudes.

by "disturbed", of course, you mean "jealous".

zeke
03-18-2008, 11:58 AM
I can' find any other pitcher in the league, save the knuckleballer Wakefield, who isn't at least around 40% with the straight fastball.

meanwhile Litsch hovers under 20%. that can't be a good thing.

hairnova
03-18-2008, 12:01 PM
Litsch isn't even good, why does it matter so much? lol.

mbow30
03-18-2008, 12:04 PM
cute little mbow doesn't understand how a 1 inning pitcher's average velocity will obviously be significantly higher than a 6 inning pitcher.

and silly old zeke doesn't seem to understand that one pitcher has proven he can throw the ball 93-94 mph while the other can barely touch 90.

it doesn't matter what their averages are.

halladay can hit 96 with his fastball. he uses it when he needs to, but not always. doesn't mean he needs to rely on it, you just need to be able to do it.

janssen CAN THROW 93-94. litsch cannot. therefore, as my initial argument stated, janssen's fastball tops out at 93-94. and litsch's does not.

zeke
03-18-2008, 12:09 PM
we have yet to have any official source confirming your 94mph top speed for Janssen.

mbow30
03-18-2008, 12:12 PM
spare an average of 91mph last year, which should make it pretty clear that he was routinely topping 92.. which would be 93, or possibly even.... 94.

actually he was clocked as high as 96 last year, although i suspect that was the dome's gun being a bit generous. (there's an article about it, i read it yesterday).

zeke
03-18-2008, 12:19 PM
the "Marcel" projections on that site sure don't like the Jays' hitters:


F.Thomas: .826ops
A.Rios: .823ops
L.Overbay: .793ops
M.Stairs: .788ops
V.Wells: .785ops
A.hill: .788ops
S.Rolen: .777ops
A.Lind: .766ops
R.Johnson: .751ops
G.Zaun: .745ops
C.Thigpen: .735ops
R.Barajas: .727ops
D.Eckstein: .726ops
S.Stewart: .725ops

zeke
03-18-2008, 12:25 PM
"CHONE" projections aren't much better:

F.Thomas: .851ops
A.Rios: .813ops
S.Rolen: .802ops
M.Stairs: .783ops
L.Overbay: .781ops
V.Wells: .780ops
A.Lind: .774ops
A.Hill: .770ops
S.Stewart: .742ops
G.Zaun: .742ops
R.Barajasa: .738ops
R.Johnson: .724ops
D.Eckstein: .714ops


both these projections have Glaus higher than any jay hitter.

Volcanologist
03-18-2008, 12:27 PM
The proliferation of stats with baseball is ridiculous. I can remember when they didn't even have WIP, let alone all this other stuff...

zeke
03-18-2008, 12:31 PM
"ZIPS" looks even worse.

A.Rios: .844
F.Thomas: .808
V.Wells: .784
A.Lind: .783
L.Overbay: .774
M.Stairs: .770
R.Johnson: .741
R.Barajas: .733
G.Zaun: .721
A.Hill: .715
S.Rolen: .711
D.Eckstein: .679

clubbies
03-18-2008, 12:33 PM
I can' find any other pitcher in the league, save the knuckleballer Wakefield, who isn't at least around 40% with the straight fastball.

meanwhile Litsch hovers under 20%. that can't be a good thing.

His cutter is his best pitch, so it makes sense that he throws it that much. Litsch's fastball is more of an outpitch. He just tosses it in there to change speeds and keep the batter guessing. He's totally the exception to the rule. He throws a slow cut fastball with wicked movement that gets him all kinds of groundballs. It can't look very intimidating to the hitter coming in, but it is really tough to centre up. It breaks like a screwball a lot of the time, and hitters aren't used to seeing movement in that direction from a RHP.

The other exception, the biggest one, is Mariano Rivera. He threw 73.2% cutters last year, averaging 93.2 mph and 26.8% fastballs averaging 93.6mph. Sometimes he'll throw 15 cutters in a row. The hitter knows exactly what is coming, but can't hit it solidly. Litsch is like a baby version of Rivera--he loses 8 mph but his ball jumps around more.

Two other guys from the past that threw primarily cutters were Al Leiter and Andy Hawkins. Both guys threw no-hitters on days when their cutter was just diving all over the place (unfortunately, Hawkins lost his no-no 4-0)


Litsch's repertoire isn't a recipe for a hall-of-fame career and there is a solid chance he loses movement or gets hurt and turns into a launching pad, but there's no reason why Litsch won't succeed if he keeps doing what he does--hit spots, mix speeds and let the ball dance around the corners.

zeke
03-18-2008, 12:36 PM
"MINER"

A.Rios: .822
L.Overbay; .814
V.Wells: .799
F.Thomas: .793
A.Hill: .765
M.Stairs: .761
S.Rolen: .749
R.Barajas: .736
D.Eckstein: .705
A.Lind: .695
G.Zaun: .676
S.Stewart: 668

zeke
03-18-2008, 12:39 PM
His cutter is his best pitch, so it makes sense that he throws it that much. Litsch's fastball is more of an outpitch. He just tosses it in there to change speeds and keep the batter guessing. He's totally the exception to the rule. He throws a slow cut fastball with wicked movement that gets him all kinds of groundballs. It can't look very intimidating to the hitter coming in, but it is really tough to centre up. It breaks like a screwball a lot of the time, and hitters aren't used to seeing movement in that direction from a RHP.

yeah, obviously the cutter's his best pitch - but man, he leans on it heavily.


The other exception, the biggest one, is Mariano Rivera. He threw 73.2% cutters last year, averaging 93.2 mph and 26.8% fastballs averaging 93.6mph. Sometimes he'll throw 15 cutters in a row. The hitter knows exactly what is coming, but can't hit it solidly. Litsch is like a baby version of Rivera--he loses 8 mph but his ball jumps around more.

I don't feel very good about Mariano being the comparison, mostly because of Mariano's role and his velocity.


Two other guys from the past that threw primarily cutters were Al Leiter and Andy Hawkins. Both guys threw no-hitters on days when their cutter was just diving all over the place (unfortunately, Hawkins lost his no-no 4-0).

I like these comparisons.....was Hawkins a lefty as well, though?

clubbies
03-18-2008, 12:45 PM
Also, you've got to remember that Litsch has an excellent change and 2 other decent breaking pitches. The fact that he throws 1 straight fastball in 5 doesn't really concern me.

I was really skeptical about Litsch, but I think he deserves another shot. He just has a feel for pitching like few others. If he could throw 95, he'd quite honestly be Roy Halladay and there aren't that many guys you can say that about.

clubbies
03-18-2008, 12:50 PM
I like these comparisons.....was Hawkins a lefty as well, though?
No, Hawkins was a RHP. He was pretty bad though. Career K:BB ratio is close to 1:1 and usually a K/9 and BB/9 of about 4. Litsch has much better control.

Still, Hawkins managed to have a couple of good years:
25y.o.: 18-8, 3.15 ERA, 113 ERA+, 1.286 WHIP in 228.2 IP. 65BB, 69K:puke:

120 ERA+ in 119 innings as a 23 year old.

zeke
03-18-2008, 12:51 PM
If we do a rough average of those predictions:

A.Rios: .826
F.Thomas: .820
L.Overbay: .791
V.Wells: .787
M.Stairs: .776
S.Rolen: .760
A.Hill: .760
A.Lind: .755
R.Johnson: .739
R.Barajas: .734
G.Zaun: .721
S.Stewart: .712
D.Eckstein: .706


not looking so hot.

zeke
03-18-2008, 12:52 PM
Also, you've got to remember that Litsch has an excellent change and 2 other decent breaking pitches. The fact that he throws 1 straight fastball in 5 doesn't really concern me.

I was really skeptical about Litsch, but I think he deserves another shot. He just has a feel for pitching like few others. If he could throw 95, he'd quite honestly be Roy Halladay and there aren't that many guys you can say that about.

I like Litsch quite a bit.....but I didn't realize just how reliant he was on the cutter.

clubbies
03-18-2008, 01:08 PM
If we do a rough average of those predictions:

A.Rios: .826
F.Thomas: .820
L.Overbay: .791
V.Wells: .787
M.Stairs: .776
S.Rolen: .760
A.Hill: .760
A.Lind: .755
R.Johnson: .739
R.Barajas: .734
G.Zaun: .721
S.Stewart: .712
D.Eckstein: .706


not looking so hot.

A number of these guys are coming off unexpected bad years and the systems all tend to weight the most recent year really heavily, often without adequately taking injuries into account (Wells, Overbay, Rolen in particular).


I also think all the systems are unfairly harsh on Rios and Hill. I'm not exactly sure why, but they were both probably brought up a bit early, in terms of offence anyway, and so instead of piling up big numbers in AAA, they put up low-.700 OPS in MLB. Now maybe they're penalized for that. They tend to have equalizing formulas for AA-AAA-MLB numbers, but I don't think that accounts for a young player struggling to get their footing in MLB.

zeke
03-18-2008, 01:31 PM
seems a bit strange - while the guys who slumped badly last year are clearly being punished for their bad years last year (wells/overbay), and others are clearly being punished simply for being older (thomas/stairs/zaun) at the same time you're right - guys like Hill and Rios don't seem to be getting credit, neither for their high quality years last year, nor for their younger age.

obviously they don't interfere with their formulas, but it's hard at first glance to see how this all balances out.

mbow30
03-18-2008, 02:38 PM
it seems pretty silly to project an .820 ops from a 26 year old coming off consecutive .850 ops seasons.

Montana
03-18-2008, 08:05 PM
If we do a rough average of those predictions:

A.Rios: .826
F.Thomas: .820
L.Overbay: .791
V.Wells: .787
M.Stairs: .776
S.Rolen: .760
A.Hill: .760
A.Lind: .755
R.Johnson: .739
R.Barajas: .734
G.Zaun: .721
S.Stewart: .712
D.Eckstein: .706


not looking so hot.

To be fair, all of their projections (Zips, Chone, Marcel etc) are normally considered to be very conservative.......I believe they each project something like 1 or 2 players to top 1.000 OPS this year.......while since the 2000 season, we've been seeing on average 9.6 players per season top that.

So take these low projections with a grain of salt.



.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
03-23-2008, 02:11 AM
All you can eat seats...



Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack. And some more. And more.

A growing trend in all-you-can-eat seating at sports venues is making baseball's summer chorus sound more like "Take Me Out to the Buffet.''

Dozens of arenas, stadiums and tracks are offering tickets that come with unlimited snacks. The seats have been a hit with fans, a money-maker for the venues and a worry for obesity-conscious health officials.

Now the Toronto Blue Jays are testing out the concept for a weekend series of games in May. For $39, fans attending a game on May 23, 24 or 25 at the Rogers Centre will score a 200-level outfield seat and a pass to stuff themselves with an endless stream of iconic baseball treats. The cost is $10 above a regular 200-level ticket. On the menu, hotdogs, peanuts, popcorn, nachos and soft drinks.

Beer will be extra.

It's the first time the ticket option has been offered by the Jays.

"We know from the research that it has been successful with other sports teams in the U.S. market," said Nadia Flaim, manager of communications at the Rogers Centre.

"If fans come out and say this is a ticket option we want to have, which will be gauged by ticket sales by that section, then the ticket office will offer that option again."

At the Rogers Centre, 1,600 seats are available in the all-you-can-eat sections for each of the three games. Ticket holders will be given wristband identification, Flaim said.

It is expected the offer will appeal to individuals who like stadium food but don't want to fish for change or haul out a credit card every time they get peckish or thirsty, Flaim said. And, if you book with more than 20 people, the all-you-can-chew seats drop to $36, she said. Nearly half of the major league baseball teams in the U.S. have added the "all-inclusive" seats. Nine NHL teams offer them, six NBA teams have them and NASCAR is selling the tickets at several of its racetracks.



http://www.thestar.com/News/article/349685

da_next_kid
03-23-2008, 02:51 AM
Beer is extra :(, not that I drink but still.