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PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-06-2013, 11:43 AM
This one should be fun.

2013/2014 Season
Updated Nov 28th 2013


Overall:

Reimer (11 gms)
.879 & Under: 2 Games (18.2%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 2 Games (18.2%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 7 Games (63.6%)
Overall SV%: .934

Bernier (17 gms)
.879 & Under: 2 Games (11.8%)
.880-889: 1 Games (5.9%)
.890-.899: 1 Games (5.9%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (5.9%)
.920-.929: 3 Games (17.6%)
.930 & Above: 9 Games (52.9%)
Overall SV%: .931

Team Overall (25 gms)
.879 & Under: 3 Games (12.0%)
.880-889: 2 Games (8.0%)
.890-.899: 1 Games (4.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 2 Games (4.0%)
.920-.929: 4 Games (16.0%)
.930 & Above: 13 Games (52.0%)
Overall SV%: .932


Team Record:

Reimer (9 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-1-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-1-0 (82 point pace)
.920-.929: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.930 & Above: 4-1-0 (131 point pace)
Overall: 6-3-0 (109 point pace)

Bernier (16 gms)
.879 & Under: 1-1-0 (82 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-1-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-1 (82 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 0-1-0 (0 point pace)
.920-.929: 1-2-0 (55 point pace)
.930 & Above: 6-1-1 (133 point pace)
Overall: 8-6-2 (92 point pace)

Team Overall (25 gms)
.879 & Under: 1-2-0 (55 point pace)
.880-.889: 1-1-0 (82 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-1 (82 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-1-0 (82 point pace)
.920-.929: 1-3-0 (41 point pace)
.930 & Above: 10-2-1 (132 point pace)
Overall: 14-9-2 (98 point pace)


Shots Faced:

Reimer (11 gms)
Under 20: 1 gms (1.000 SV%)
20-29: 2 gms (.762 SV%)
30-39: 5 gms (.950 SV%)
Over 40: 3 gms (.964 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 38.4

Bernier (17 gms)
Under 20: 2 gms (1.000 SV%)
20-29: 3 gms (.899 SV%)
30-39: 9 gms (.939 SV%)
Over 40: 3 gms (.924 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 33.8


GSSV% (Games Started SV%):

SV%
Reimer (11 gms): .934 SV%
Bernier (14 gms): .930 SV%


Even Strength:

SV%:
Reimer (11 gms): 271/287 (.944 SV%)
Bernier (17 gms): 393/417 (.942 SV%)


Penalty Kill:

Success Rate:
Reimer (11 gms): 27/35 (77.1%)
Bernier (17 gms): 50/62 (80.6%)

SV%:
Reimer (11 gms): 61/69 (.884 SV%)
Bernier (17 gms): 101/113 (.894 SV%)


Shootout:

Success Rate (Win/Loss):
Reimer (1 gms): 1/0 (100.0%)
Bernier (4 gms): 2/2 (50.0%)

SV%:
Reimer (1 gms): 3/4 (.750%)
Bernier (4 gms): 7/11 (.636%)

Cojo
09-06-2013, 01:40 PM
Really hope Bernier lives up to all this supposed hype.

I know i'm not convinced in the least, and really hope that changes quickly.

His game by game stats aren't flattering, not to mention im not sure if he's ever seen an NHL playoff game yet. To me he's got nothing on Reimer besides a higher draft position. Its Reimer's job to lose.

We'll see soon enough!

leafman101
09-06-2013, 01:50 PM
Bernier saved the kings season last year when quick was shitting the bed. All he has to do is be as good as he was last year.

zeke
09-06-2013, 03:05 PM
Leafs have played at a 99pt pace with Reimer in net the past 3 years, and at a 74pt pace with anyone else in net.

Kings have played at a 98pt pace with Quick in net the past 3 years, and at a 95pt pace with Bernier in net. (though in that case Bernier was likely getting at least slightly easier opposition).


As long as coach doesn't play favorites, we should be good to go. As much as we've ruined our last decade with bad starting goaltending, what's even worse is how even in the years we've had good goalies (Joseph, Belfour, Reimer) we've still sabotaged ourselves with bad backup goalies. But if Bernier can give us comparable goaltending to Reimer, and I think it should be at least close, then a 100pt season is within reach.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-07-2013, 01:57 PM
There will be a lot of buzz during the preseason about who plays the first game, but the Leafs start the season with a back to back, which means they will likely split the games. Who plays better in their reg season debut will determine who plays the 3rd game. Preseason won't mean all the much in the big picture.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-16-2013, 02:26 PM
13/14 Preseason:

Game 1:
Gibson: 1.000 SV% (13/13)
Reimer: .823 SV% (14/17)

hockeylover
09-16-2013, 04:00 PM
ESPN's goalie rankings:

Reimer 17th, Bernier 23rd

http://espn.go.com/nhl/notebook/_/page/2013_nhlrank_goaltenders/goaltenders

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-17-2013, 08:40 AM
13/14 Preseason:

Game 1:
Gibson: 1.000 SV% (13/13)
Reimer: .823 SV% (14/17)

Game 2:
Bernier: .938 (15/16)
MacIntyre: .929 (13/14)

Total:
Gibson: 1 gms, 1.000 SV% (13/13)
Bernier: 1 gms, .938 (15/16)
MacIntyre: 1 gms, .929 (13/14)
Reimer: 1 gms, .823 SV% (14/17)

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-21-2013, 08:36 AM
13/14 Preseason:

Game 1:
Gibson: 1.000 SV% (13/13)
Reimer: .823 SV% (14/17)

Game 2:
Bernier: .938 (15/16)
MacIntyre: .929 (13/14)

Game 3:
Bernier: .909 (10/11)
MacIntyre: .950 (19/20)

Total:
Gibson: 1 gms, 1.000 SV% (13/13)
MacIntyre: 2 gms, .941 (32/34)
Bernier: 2 gms, .926 (25/27)
Reimer: 1 gms, .823 SV% (14/17)

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-23-2013, 09:00 AM
13/14 Preseason:

Game 1:
Gibson: 1.000 SV% (13/13)
Reimer: .823 SV% (14/17)

Game 2:
Bernier: .938 (15/16)
MacIntyre: .929 (13/14)

Game 3:
Bernier: .909 (10/11)
MacIntyre: .950 (19/20)

Game 4:
Reimer: .950 (38/40)

Game 5:
Bernier: .893 (25/28)
MacIntyre: 1.000 (3/3)

Total:
Gibson: 1 gms, 1.000 SV% (13/13)
MacIntyre: 3 gms, .946 (35/37)
Reimer: 2 gms, .912 SV% (52/57)
Bernier: 3 gms, .909 (50/55)

leafman101
09-23-2013, 10:17 AM
You should include fight records.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-23-2013, 10:21 AM
Bernier: 1-0-0 (1 - TKO)
Reimer: 0-0-0 (0 - TKO)

Blueman
09-23-2013, 10:34 AM
Thanks for putting this together, appreciate it

zeke
09-23-2013, 12:16 PM
Bernier's fight has earned him a place in my heart for sure already. Gonna be hard to root against him now, even jokingly.

That being said, I still get an eerie Toskala vibe from Bernier. Beyond the similarity of trading for an slick undersized western conference goalie with questionable stats but a massive reputation, last night's game reminds me a little too much of when we first got Toskala....all sorts of great slick saves there, but then bam bam bam, 3 goals that would have been routine saves if he had stopped him, that just found their way through.

JaysCyYoung
09-23-2013, 12:32 PM
The key difference being that Bernier's stats are significantly better than Toskala's were. Nothing questionable about a .920+ save percentage at all.

zeke
09-23-2013, 12:38 PM
Bernier:

4gms, .864
3gms, .957
25gms, .913
16gms, .909
14gms, .922

= 62gms, .912


Toskala

1gms, 1.000
11gms, .927
28gms, .930
37gms, .901
38gms, .908

= 115gms, .914

leafman101
09-23-2013, 12:46 PM
Why can't we just be happy that we have two good young goalies. Who cares which one ends up being better.

The difference between Toskala nad Bernier is Toskala already got his shot and blew it by the time the Leafs got him. Can't just assume Bernier will blow his too just because he's also a goalie.

zeke
09-23-2013, 01:11 PM
I'm just very scared that we're going to hand Bernier the starting spot just because he plays prettier in there. Don't tell me it hasn't happened countless times before.

leafman101
09-23-2013, 01:14 PM
Yeah sure if Reimer is clearly better than Bernier but Bernier gets the playing time that would be bad.

I just think Reimer is so good that he won't be a guy that will play 20-30 games. Maybe I'm wrong though.

Blueman
09-23-2013, 01:17 PM
I'm just very scared that we're going to hand Bernier the starting spot just because he plays prettier in there. Don't tell me it hasn't happened countless times before.

Agreed, may the best goalie get the starting gig. With the plethora of back-to-back games this year, we will need them both to be good.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-23-2013, 02:50 PM
Reimer just looks so much bigger in goal.

There are times when I like what I see from Bernier, but I'm still more confident with Reimer in goal.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-25-2013, 08:31 AM
13/14 Preseason:

Game 1:
Gibson: 1.000 SV% (13/13)
Reimer: .823 SV% (14/17)

Game 2:
Bernier: .938 (15/16)
MacIntyre: .929 (13/14)

Game 3:
Bernier: .909 (10/11)
MacIntyre: .950 (19/20)

Game 4:
Reimer: .950 (38/40)

Game 5:
Bernier: .893 (25/28)
MacIntyre: 1.000 (3/3)

Game 6:
Reimer: .919 (34/37)

Total:
Gibson: 1 gms, 1.000 SV% (13/13)
MacIntyre: 3 gms, .946 (35/37)
Reimer: 3 gms, .915 SV% (86/94)
Bernier: 3 gms, .909 SV% (50/55)

hockeylover
09-25-2013, 11:01 AM
I didn't see last night's game and I LIKE Bernier but IMO, Reimer holds on to his starting job this year. Or at least should (will have better SV%, whether Carlyle plays him more, I don't know)

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-25-2013, 11:12 AM
It doesn't even really matter (the preseason), Randy's already said they're going to split the opening two games.

Wayward DP
09-25-2013, 11:19 AM
I'm with zeke. From the moment we trade for Bernier, I've been concerned we're just going to anoint him the starter, even if he's outplayed by Reimer. His contract adds to my concerns.

Hope I'm wrong though.

Artnes
09-25-2013, 11:20 AM
If anything this should push Reimer to be a better goalie. Never a bad thing having two quality goalies in net.

hockeylover
09-25-2013, 11:22 AM
If anything this should push Reimer to be a better goalie. Never a bad thing having two quality goalies in net.

Definitely true, as long as we play the better one.

leafman101
09-25-2013, 11:24 AM
What if Bernier is the better one and they play Reimer.

hockeylover
09-25-2013, 11:29 AM
What if Bernier is the better one and they play Reimer.

... that would be silly too?

zeke
09-25-2013, 12:31 PM
Not that they were easy saves in the least, and both came on point blank chances and one I think was deflected, but interesting to see two goals go fivehole on Reims so far. Losing the 5hole pads might affect him....though thye should affect everyone, really.

Volcanologist
09-25-2013, 01:03 PM
I think Bernier is a very good goalie from what I've seen. #teamreimer will have its hands full.

I think both will finish the year with higher save percentages than they had in preseason, but I have no clue which will win the starting gig.

great problem to have though.

Cojo
09-25-2013, 01:07 PM
Its going to be tough to always compare but hopefully they face similar competition as well. I don't know why there would ever be a sway to one side, but its something for us as a board to consider when we are evaluating their stats IMO.

zeke
09-25-2013, 01:10 PM
well, was it right to sway to one side in the Reimer-Gustavsson debate?

Volcanologist
09-25-2013, 01:29 PM
The whatnow?

zeke
09-25-2013, 02:12 PM
alzheimer's acting up again?

Montana
09-25-2013, 02:36 PM
The goalie who plays better and gives the team the best chance to win, will get the nod in the long run.....and it'll be Bernier, imo.



Unfortunately many will break this down to a simple sv% argument, but there's more to the goaltending and evaluating the position than just a straight sv% comparison...(as we know all sv%'s aren't created equal....if one is playing considerably better 5-5, but has a lower sv% overall because he's had to face considerably more PP's, and thus PP goal's against.....then a straight overall sv% comparison wouldn't show us who the better goalie was, for example.)

Also, with the quality of our teams skaters and our offense, Bernier's puckhandling skills will bring an element to the game, both in helping the offense start the rush, and helping the defense neutralize the forecheck, that Reimer simply doesn't (or not at the same level anyway).

For that reason if Bernier gets more starts despite having a sv% a few negligible points lower (say 1-3) I'm not going to be overly concerned.

If Bernier gets more starts, despite Reimer having a considerably better save percentage?.....then yeah, that's a real f*cking issue.

number17
09-25-2013, 02:38 PM
I'm firmly in the Reimer camp, but getting Bernier is not a bad thing for Reimer, or for the Leafs, for as long as Carlyle can be a fair judge of goalies and play them according to their performance.

It's not a bad idea to bring in a 2nd goalie because 1. nothing pushes and improves a goalie more than pressure of competing and 2. judging from Reimer's injury history, and how tight it will be in the East to make the playoff this year, having a 2nd goalie is not a bad thing.

Montana
09-25-2013, 02:41 PM
speaking of which, anyone got Bernier/Reimer's 2012-13 and career 5-5 save percentages?.....

zeke
09-25-2013, 02:42 PM
Unfortunately many will break this down to a simple sv% argument, but there's more to the goaltending and evaluating the position than just a straight sv% comparison....

ok, no sv%:


Pts Pace:

TOR J.Reimer: 104gms, 99pt pace
LAK J.Bernier: 62gms, 95pt pace

Montana
09-25-2013, 02:43 PM
heh

zeke
09-25-2013, 02:51 PM
speaking of which, anyone got Bernier/Reimer's 2012-13 and career 5-5 save percentages?.....

not that I think it tells us anything, but anyways:

12/13

J.Reimer: 5on5: .9256sv%, 4on5: .9143sv%
J.Bernier: 5on5: .9378sv%, 4on5: .8679sv%

11/12

J.Reimer: 5on5: .9188sv%, 4on5: .8169sv%
J.Bernier: 5on5: .9065sv%, 4on5: .9250sv%

10/11

J.Reimer: 5on5: .9332sv%, 4on5: .8561sv%
J.Bernier: 5on5: .9201sv%, 4on5: .8804sv%

Montana
09-25-2013, 03:07 PM
not that I think it tells us anything

Well that's silly.

Goalie A could have a better save % than Goalie B 5-5, have the same sv% at 5-4, except have faced considerably more PK's due to the team in front of him, which would drag down his overall sv% and give you the false impression goalie B was equal to or better, than goalie A. Ditto if a goalie has a considerable number of 5-3's dragging his total down....


The more data you have, the more well informed you are in your evaluation...

Montana
09-25-2013, 03:08 PM
not that I think it tells us anything, but anyways:

12/13

J.Reimer: 5on5: .9256sv%, 4on5: .9143sv%
J.Bernier: 5on5: .9378sv%, 4on5: .8679sv%

11/12

J.Reimer: 5on5: .9188sv%, 4on5: .8169sv%
J.Bernier: 5on5: .9065sv%, 4on5: .9250sv%

10/11

J.Reimer: 5on5: .9332sv%, 4on5: .8561sv%
J.Bernier: 5on5: .9201sv%, 4on5: .8804sv%


You got shot totals on those by any chance?....intrigued to see how much the handful of 5-3's they have against them, impact their overall sv%'s.

zeke
09-25-2013, 03:19 PM
Well that's silly.

Goalie A could have a better save % than Goalie B 5-5, have the same sv% at 5-4, except have faced considerably more PK's due to the team in front of him, which would drag down his overall sv% and give you the false impression goalie B was equal to or better, than goalie A. Ditto if a goalie has a considerable number of 5-3's dragging his total down....


The more data you have, the more well informed you are in your evaluation...

the problem is that this actually gives us less data, not more data - i.e. it breaks it down into smaller, less significant sample sizes.

I bought into the ESsv% > PKsv% idea when I first heard it, but after comparing the lists over a few years I personally found both the ES and PK lists to produce much weirder and less consistent year to year lists than the straight up SV% lists.

but hey, I'm open to being persuaded otherwise.

they've got all sorts of these numbers here: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201213&sit=5v5&pos=goalies&minutes=100&teamid=0&type=shots&sort=ShPctA&sortdir=ASC

Montana
09-25-2013, 03:31 PM
the problem is that this actually gives us less data, not more data - i.e. it breaks it down into smaller, less significant sample sizes.

I bought into the ESsv% > PKsv% idea when I first heard it, but after comparing the lists over a few years I personally found both the ES and PK lists to produce much weirder and less consistent year to year lists than the straight up SV% lists.

but hey, I'm open to being persuaded otherwise.

I wouldn't even argue that I thinkn ES > PK.....so much as I'd argue that I think contextualizing the # of PK goals against, gives you a better overview of the quality of a goalie than simple straight sv%.

5-5
Goalie A ~ 910sv/1000sh = .910
Goalie B ~ 900sv/1000sh = .900

4-5
Goalie A ~ 400sv/500sh = .800 4-5
Goalie B ~ 240sv/300sh = .800 4-5

Overall sv%
Goalie A = .873
Goalie B = .877


So goalie B would have the higher overall save %....despite Goalie A having been 10 points better over 1000 shots at even strength, and having the identical sv% on the PK. ...but since Goalie A's team took more penalties, resulting in more PP goals against, his overall sv% is dragged down.

Now maybe the differentials in real world scenarios are never great enough to paint an inaccurate situation such as the one above....but in theory it could certainly occur, in which case overall sv% wouldn't give us the accurate picture we believed it had.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-25-2013, 03:31 PM
I find that team PK efficiency can be pretty random from year to year.

I prefer the overall SV% number -- for the simple fact of sample size, it's just larger.

In the end, a small point difference in SV% is negligible. If one goalie is 918 and one is 915, they are comparable.

Montana
09-25-2013, 03:36 PM
I'm not suggesting the sample size be reduced.

If we ignore the number of PK shots against though, and take into account how that may or may not have impacted a goalies overall sv%....then we're being willfully ignorant to the fact our totals might be skewed.

Goalie A was better than Goalie B, despite having a lower overall sv%....

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-25-2013, 03:38 PM
I'm not suggesting the sample size be reduced.

If we ignore the number of PK shots against though, and take into account how that may or may not have impacted a goalies overall sv%....then we're being willfully ignorant to the fact our totals might be skewed.

Goalie A was better than Goalie B, despite having a lower overall sv%....

But I wouldn't say goalie A is better than goalie B. I'd say goalie A and goalie B are comparable. Too close to call.

Montana
09-25-2013, 03:40 PM
Despite the fact Goalie A had a sv% ten points higher at regular strength, and identical 4-5?.....

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-25-2013, 03:49 PM
Looking at the numbers over the last few years, I no longer take such a strict approach with the numbers.

Even with SV%, factors such quality of team, quality of opponent, luck all play some role. I don't think it's huge role, but they play some role.

SV% helps to group goalies into different tiers imo -- elite, good, average, below average, poor. The difference of a few % points is within the margin of error of the stat imo.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-25-2013, 03:55 PM
That being said, I do think it's valuable to break it down per situation. More info the better.

Breaking it down also helps to point out team weaknesses/strengths For example the PK, whether it's the goalie or the team failing/succeeding.

The Leafs got very strong goaltending on the PK last year -- which is probably the biggest reason for it's success.

Montana
09-25-2013, 04:04 PM
Looking at the numbers over the last few years, I no longer take such a strict approach with the numbers.

You say no longer......did you evaluate/weigh the # of PK shots a goalie faced, previously?


Or are you just talking about when you would compare the less important 5-5 sv%/4-5 sv% numbers?...because while I agree, with the sentiment that flat 5-5sv% or 4-5sv% aren't hugely important in evaluation....


I do think the amount of PK shots a goalie faces can have an impact on what his final sv% looks like.



SV% helps to group goalies into different tiers imo -- elite, good, average, below average, poor.

For sure.....my argument would be though, that you're getting a less accurate picture painted, if you're ignoring/not-weighing the differentials in PK shots faced.

Maybe I'm wrong....but I'm guessing it does paint a different picture than the one straight sv% leads us to believe.



The difference of a few % points is within the margin of error of the stat imo.


I tend to agree......yet I suspect that if Bernier was getting the bulk of the starts while posting a .916 sv%, and Reimer was posting a .920 (mirroring the 4 point swing my example above showed)....I suspect people would be complaining that Carlyle wasn't playing the "better" goalie.

Montana
09-25-2013, 04:06 PM
The Leafs got very strong goaltending on the PK last year -- which is probably the biggest reason for it's success.

That's something I'm intrigued by as well....given how much we see team/goalie PK%'s swing year to year, I'm curious as to how much value a "good" PK is, versus being a team that plays smarter and takes fewer penalties overall.

MindzEye
09-25-2013, 04:12 PM
That's something I'm intrigued by as well....given how much we see team/goalie PK%'s swing year to year, I'm curious as to how much value a "good" PK is, versus being a team that plays smarter and takes fewer penalties overall.

Limiting penalties can be huge...you need to have an elite PK if you don't. The typical difference between league best and league worst in times short handed is 90-110. I think that sometimes we get a little too hung up on PK rate and not enough emphasis is put on TS.

Montana
09-25-2013, 04:14 PM
For example, how much of Chicago's success in net last year and the fact they gave up the fewest goals against....can be attributed to the fact that they had the fewest penalty minutes in the league (and I'm guessing least PK's).

That has to inflate your goalies overall sv%, no?

MindzEye
09-25-2013, 04:20 PM
For example, how much of Chicago's success in net last year and the fact they gave up the fewest goals against....can be attributed to the fact that they had the fewest penalty minutes in the league (and I'm guessing least PK's).

That has to inflate your goalies overall sv%, no?

Chicago was a bit of a perfect storm. 4th best in TS, 3rd in PK%, & 4th in SHG.

As an aside...I would love if they would start tracking 5 on 4, & 5 on 3 separately. I know it's available on the interwebs, but if it would become more popular, that would be great.

Montana
09-25-2013, 04:20 PM
The typical difference between league best and league worst in times short handed is 90-110.

Oh really?....if that's the case the impact of an extra 15-20 PK's might only work out to be an extra handful of goals against.....so maybe the impact on total sv% is negligible with the sample sizes we see.



I think that sometimes we get a little too hung up on PK rate and not enough emphasis is put on TS.


You talking goalies, or when evaluating teams as a whole?

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-25-2013, 04:21 PM
I'm not against normalizing PK opp's to account for the discrepancy of PK's.

If you have two goalies seperated by only a few % points though, I'm not sure either deserves to play the 'bulk' of the games, unless one goalie has a much better w/l record.

MindzEye
09-25-2013, 04:26 PM
Oh really?....if that's the case the impact of an extra 15-20 PK's might only work out to be an extra handful of goals against.....so maybe the impact on total sv% is negligible with the sample sizes we see.

Well, put another way...league best is usually aorund the 225-240 range and league worst is around the 340 range, and that's times shorthanded, not total shots against while shorthanded. I think it can be pretty statistically significant to a goalies overall SV%






You talking goalies, or when evaluating teams as a whole?

Teams as a whole. As it is, they (traditional hockey media) still aren't the point where they're breaking down SV% into situational numbers when discussing goaltending. I'm just pleased that SV% isn't a fight any more. Baby steps.

Montana
09-25-2013, 04:30 PM
I'm not against normalizing PK opp's to account for the discrepancy of PK's.

Yeah that's all I'm saying......I'd prefer a weighted sv% that normalized PK opp's, more than overall sv%.


Although I also concede maybe the differences would be negligible.....but if there were 3-4+ point swings in guys totals, then yeah I'd much prefer the more accurate metric of Pk weighted sv%.



If you have two goalies seperated by only a few % points though, I'm not sure either deserves to play the 'bulk' of the games, unless one goalie has a much better w/l record.


Agreed.

I'm not sure a straight split isn't the smartest thing anyway, if they're both playing at a .915-.920 level, play both of them a bunch and ride the hot hand when a guy catches fire. Keep them both fresh and rested all year.

That said, I do think the potential for Bernier to help the team in other ways, with his ability to move the puck.....might be under appreciated by some.

Montana
09-25-2013, 04:32 PM
Well, put another way...league best is usually aorund the 225-240 range and league worst is around the 340 range, and that's times shorthanded, not total shots against while shorthanded. I think it can be pretty statistically significant to a goalies overall SV%


Sorry, I was thinking you meant the difference was between 90pk's and 110pk's .....not the 340+ and 220+, yeah shit if that's the case then it could absolutely have a significant impact on a goalies overall SV%.

Yeah, we need to create a weighed sv% already and trademark that shit.

zeke
09-25-2013, 05:02 PM
I wouldn't even argue that I thinkn ES > PK.....so much as I'd argue that I think contextualizing the # of PK goals against, gives you a better overview of the quality of a goalie than simple straight sv%.

5-5
Goalie A ~ 910sv/1000sh = .910
Goalie B ~ 900sv/1000sh = .900

4-5
Goalie A ~ 400sv/500sh = .800 4-5
Goalie B ~ 240sv/300sh = .800 4-5

Overall sv%
Goalie A = .873
Goalie B = .877


So goalie B would have the higher overall save %....despite Goalie A having been 10 points better over 1000 shots at even strength, and having the identical sv% on the PK. ...but since Goalie A's team took more penalties, resulting in more PP goals against, his overall sv% is dragged down.

Now maybe the differentials in real world scenarios are never great enough to paint an inaccurate situation such as the one above....but in theory it could certainly occur, in which case overall sv% wouldn't give us the accurate picture we believed it had.

The logic makes sense to me too, but from the time I've spent looking at it, goalies jump all over the individual ES and PK lists from year to year much, much more than on the total SV% list. I've heard that ESsv% is more predictable than PK%, but it seems significantly less predictable than overal sv%.

Even in this simple Reimer vs. Bernier breakdown, you can see that the ES and PK lists just seem to confuse the issue, instead of giving a clearer answer.

zeke
09-25-2013, 05:07 PM
SV% helps to group goalies into different tiers imo -- elite, good, average, below average, poor. The difference of a few % points is within the margin of error of the stat imo.

I think it's less groups than that, even.

you've got a tiny handful of starting goalies who can consistently post an elite save percentage each year. (right now, actually, it's pretty much only Lundqvist....though Rinne and Luongo both get mulligans from me for last year's bad numbers, and guys like Rask and Schneider might be joining that group this year).

then you've got the majority of NHL starting goalies, a good 20 or so, that average around .915sv% but in any given year can post an elite .920+ sv% or a poor sub-.910sv%. This is the majority of goalies. For now, reimer slots in here (though, interestingly, if Reimer manages to post another .920+ sv% season, making it 3 times in 4 years, then he's suddenly in much more elite company than people think). You've got goalies with great reps in here (Price, Miller, Ward) and goalies with bad reps (Fleury, Reimer, Dubnyk) but really they're all likely going to give you similar goaltending, or at least have a similar chance of giving you good or bad goaltending in any given year.

Then you've got 5 or so every year, on the really stupid teams, that aren't NHL starting material, but maybe have jobs because they once had one starting calibre year at some point.

zeke
09-25-2013, 05:11 PM
Yeah that's all I'm saying......I'd prefer a weighted sv% that normalized PK opp's, more than overall sv%.


Although I also concede maybe the differences would be negligible.....but if there were 3-4+ point swings in guys totals, then yeah I'd much prefer the more accurate metric of Pk weighted sv%.

yeah that sounds good to me too. would probably be valuable.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-25-2013, 05:17 PM
There are two ways of looking at this -- in terms of evaluting goalies over longer stretches.

Either you take a goalie's combined SV% over a 2-3 year span, or you see how they rate in comparison to their peers each season.

The fact that Lundqvist ranks consistently in the top 10 in SV% each season makes him special imo, not the fact he has a 925ish combined SV% over a 2-3 year span. There are some goalies who've posted a 930 season then fall back to 910 the very next season. But over that two year span they have a 920 SV% which is very good overall, but it's only 1 very good season out of 2.

That's what I like about Reimer, the fact in 2 of 3 seasons he's posted top 10 numbers. That isn't easy and not many goalies have done it over that time frame.

MindzEye
09-25-2013, 05:17 PM
Sorry, I was thinking you meant the difference was between 90pk's and 110pk's .....not the 340+ and 220+, yeah shit if that's the case then it could absolutely have a significant impact on a goalies overall SV%.

Yeah, we need to create a weighed sv% already and trademark that shit.

We have an in house statistics nazi who does data analytics for a living I'm pretty sure....

MindzEye
09-25-2013, 05:21 PM
The logic makes sense to me too, but from the time I've spent looking at it, goalies jump all over the individual ES and PK lists from year to year much, much more than on the total SV% list. I've heard that ESsv% is more predictable than PK%, but it seems significantly less predictable than overal sv%.

Even in this simple Reimer vs. Bernier breakdown, you can see that the ES and PK lists just seem to confuse the issue, instead of giving a clearer answer.

That's a sample size issue though, for PKSV% I think you'd absolutely have to find a way to expand your sample for it to have any meaning, using 2-3 years (or a minimum shots faced, etc) to be able to determine if it's of any worth.

That in particular, is one I'd love to have heat mapping data for. I'm in the camp that generally believes that 5 on 5 shots even out over large enough sample sizes for the most part, but I wouldn't have a hard time believing that quality of shots faced while on the PK would be a large difference between teams.

zeke
09-25-2013, 05:35 PM
i think that link I posted has some breakdowns of "hard shots" and the like but I haven't looked too closely at it.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-25-2013, 05:35 PM
That in particular, is one I'd love to have heat mapping data for. I'm in the camp that generally believes that 5 on 5 shots even out over large enough sample sizes for the most part, but I wouldn't have a hard time believing that quality of shots faced while on the PK would be a large difference between teams.

PK's are very structured. Some teams are little more aggressive than others, but I'm not sure that effects the quality of shots. I think better PK units will allow less shots though.

This is only an educated guess on my part though.

MindzEye
09-25-2013, 06:11 PM
PK's are very structured. Some teams are little more aggressive than others, but I'm not sure that effects the quality of shots. I think better PK units will allow less shots though.

This is only an educated guess on my part though.

It's an interesting extension of topics there are already reasonable consensus on. I'd love to see data on it.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-26-2013, 09:43 AM
5 on 5:

12/13:
SV%: .919 (15th)
Shots Against Per 60: 33.7 (30th)

11/12:
SV%: .906 (27th)
Shots Against Per 60: 30.1 (20th)



4 on 5:

12/13:
SV%: .901 (2nd)
Shots Against Per 60: 41.8 (5th)

11/12:
SV%: .856 (27th)
Shots Against Per 60: 51.1 (18th)

Montana
09-26-2013, 10:20 AM
So if we were to try and normalize PK sv% can we get our hands on the requisite data, and how best do you think a formula for could weight the PK sv%?

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-26-2013, 01:45 PM
You'd just have adjust PK to the league average.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-28-2013, 08:30 AM
13/14 Preseason:

Game 1:
Gibson: 1.000 SV% (13/13)
Reimer: .823 SV% (14/17)

Game 2:
Bernier: .938 (15/16)
MacIntyre: .929 (13/14)

Game 3:
Bernier: .909 (10/11)
MacIntyre: .950 (19/20)

Game 4:
Reimer: .950 (38/40)

Game 5:
Bernier: .893 (25/28)
MacIntyre: 1.000 (3/3)

Game 6:
Reimer: .919 (34/37)

Game 7:
Bernier: .865 (32/37)

Total:
Gibson: 1 gms, 1.000 SV% (13/13)
MacIntyre: 3 gms, .946 (35/37)
Reimer: 3 gms, .915 SV% (86/94)
Bernier: 4 gms, .891 SV% (82/92)

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-28-2013, 08:34 AM
Preseason:
Scrivens: 2 gms, .900 SV%
Bernier: 4 gms, .891 SV%

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-28-2013, 08:38 AM
Playing Complete Game, Preseason:
Reimer: 2 gms, .935 SV%
Bernier: 2 gms, .877 SV%

LeafGm
09-28-2013, 08:50 AM
#TeamReimer

The opening game start should have been his to begin with, for what he's already proven here over the last few years. But if it wasn't, this pre-season should seal it.

UWHabs
09-28-2013, 10:08 AM
The other thing to consider on opening night is you're playing in Montreal. Really, no matter how they do in the pre-season, you have to go with the French Canadian goalie. History has shown that that's always the best call in Montreal.

leafman101
09-28-2013, 10:13 AM
Reimer earned it.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-29-2013, 10:41 AM
13/14 Preseason: Final Numbers

Game 1:
Gibson: 1.000 SV% (13/13)
Reimer: .823 SV% (14/17)

Game 2:
Bernier: .938 (15/16)
MacIntyre: .929 (13/14)

Game 3:
Bernier: .909 (10/11)
MacIntyre: .950 (19/20)

Game 4:
Reimer: .950 (38/40)

Game 5:
Bernier: .893 (25/28)
MacIntyre: 1.000 (3/3)

Game 6:
Reimer: .919 (34/37)

Game 7:
Bernier: .865 (32/37)

Game 8:
Reimer: .960 (24/25)

Total:
Gibson: 1 gms, 1.000 SV% (13/13)
MacIntyre: 3 gms, .946 (35/37)
Reimer: 4 gms, .924 SV% (110/119)
Bernier: 4 gms, .891 SV% (82/92)

hockeylover
09-29-2013, 10:57 AM
Reimer: 4 gms, .924 SV% (110/119)
Bernier: 4 gms, .891 SV% (82/92)

Only four games but ewww. Reimer please.

hockeylover
09-29-2013, 11:07 AM
The other thing to consider on opening night is you're playing in Montreal. Really, no matter how they do in the pre-season, you have to go with the French Canadian goalie. History has shown that that's always the best call in Montreal.

Bernier vs. Montreal 2gp, 0-2, .900 SV%
Reimer vs. Montreal 8gp, 4-3, .919 SV%

Reimer in Montreal 3gp, 2-0, .939 SV%
Bernier in Montreal 1gp, 0-1, .879 SV%

JackBurton
09-29-2013, 12:07 PM
It's the Leafs. Nobody cares about a French Canadian guy playing in Montreal. Reimer is the best goalie.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-30-2013, 10:29 AM
12/13 -- GPG of opponents faced:

Reimer: 2.70 (11th)
Bernier: 2.54 (19th)

MindzEye
09-30-2013, 11:03 AM
12/13 -- GPG of opponents faced:

Reimer: 2.70 (11th)
Bernier: 2.54 (19th)

Meaningless in pre season.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-30-2013, 11:04 AM
Numbers are from last years reg season.

MindzEye
09-30-2013, 11:07 AM
Numbers are from last years reg season.

I'm aware of what they are, but seeing as nobody plays their full NHL roster in pre season, why is the team scoring record from the previous season relevant?

PlayerToBeNamedLater
09-30-2013, 11:09 AM
I'm aware of what they are, but seeing as nobody plays their full NHL roster in pre season, why is the team scoring record from the previous season relevant?

Numbers have nothing to do with this preseason or this year.

It was the quality of opponent they faced last year.

MindzEye
09-30-2013, 12:16 PM
Ah, my bad.

Montana
09-30-2013, 01:39 PM
Reimer deserves to start opening night...

TimHorton
09-30-2013, 04:06 PM
Reimer deserves to start opening night...

For countless reasons......the biggest being he's better right now.

JackBurton
09-30-2013, 04:51 PM
Benier was so overhyped.

hockeylover
09-30-2013, 05:07 PM
Reimer >>

Picked him in my pool. #TEAMREIMER

Bleedsblue&white
09-30-2013, 05:14 PM
I think Bernier could end up the better keeper, but he doesn't deserve the start. Back to back to start the season works well IMO because you can get them both in quickly, so do what's right; start Reimer, give Bernier the next start...and after that I just want to win.


If they do not give Reimer the start, I hope he ends up having a great year and gives us the finger when it's time to sign up again. (I like Bernier, but Reimer doesn't deserve to be treated like shit)

JaysCyYoung
09-30-2013, 05:21 PM
Reimer is the better goalie.

He's not as flashy and he didn't get the backing of half the city because they're obsessed with one goalie fight, but he's quietly produced quality numbers at every single level he's played at.

He's less Hollywood and more Kansas, but there's nothing wrong with that. Kid has a fantastic personality and a great head on his shoulders. It's hard not to root for someone who has been doubted by everyone and still done well. To say nothing of the fact that he's been the superior goalie in camp of course...

Wayward DP
09-30-2013, 05:47 PM
Reim's has earned the opening day start. Probably before we even played a game in the preseason if you ask me, but certainly after the preseason too.

zeke
09-30-2013, 05:49 PM
boo. I liked it better when you guys were all sucking bernier's balls.

much more of this and I'll have to start defending bernier.

hockeylover
09-30-2013, 06:01 PM
I'm not sure anyone here ever really sucked Bernier's balls, did they?

zeke
09-30-2013, 06:32 PM
I believe you were juggling his nuts in your mouth, IIRC.

Wayward DP
09-30-2013, 06:36 PM
I'm not sure anyone here ever really sucked Bernier's balls, did they?

At the time of the trade, a lot of people were choking on them

Bleedsblue&white
09-30-2013, 06:37 PM
boo. I liked it better when you guys were all sucking bernier's balls.

much more of this and I'll have to start defending bernier.


I don't see the sense in arguing something we are going to see for ourselves shortly. Jays can go ahead and say Reimer is better, but in two months he might have to change his stance.I said I think Bernier will be better, but I may be wrong.
This is a unique situation; neither keeper has years of quality NHL service behind them. We don't know, can't know...but will know.
As long as we get good goaltending, I don't care who's in net.

Wayward DP
09-30-2013, 06:44 PM
I don't see the sense in arguing something we are going to see for ourselves shortly. Jays can go ahead and say Reimer is better, but in two months he might have to change his stance.I said I think Bernier will be better, but I may be wrong.
This is a unique situation; neither keeper has years of quality NHL service behind them. We don't know, can't know...but will know.
As long as we get good goaltending, I don't care who's in net.

As long as we play the better goaltender, I don't care who's in net.

I won't lie though, I fully expect Reimer to be better. Won't be upset to be proven wrong, just want whoever gets handed the ball to have earned it.

hockeylover
09-30-2013, 06:52 PM
I believe you were juggling his nuts in your mouth, IIRC.

Try again, zeke. I've never been big on Bernier even since before the trade.

And since the trade, all I've said is that I didn't see a need to freak out about him splitting the first back to back.

MindzEye
09-30-2013, 07:16 PM
I'm not sure anyone here ever really sucked Bernier's balls, did they?

Zeke will continue on with his persecution fantasy regardless of what anyone says

I still think the Bernier move was brilliant, and that he has top flite starter potential. Reimer is a damn good goalie though, and frankly I don't give a **** which of the two plays best as long as we get awesome goaltending.

Montana
10-01-2013, 01:57 AM
I'm not sure anyone here ever really sucked Bernier's balls, did they?



*raises hand*



continue to....guy is going to be our franchise tender for the next decade......but Reimer deserves the first start.

hockeylover
10-01-2013, 01:58 AM
I don't see it.

I'd love to be wrong though.

Montana
10-01-2013, 02:04 AM
http://waitwhat.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/BernierComeAtMeBro.gif

hockeylover
10-01-2013, 04:11 PM
Mark Masters ‏@markhmasters 1m
1-on-1: Bernier tells @GinoRedaTSN that Reimer 'deserves' to start tonight http://bit.ly/151GUwJ (vid)

LeafGm
10-01-2013, 04:15 PM
After Reimer shuts out the Habs tonight, let the media-driven goaltender contraversy begin!

Montana
10-01-2013, 05:01 PM
Mark Masters ‏@markhmasters 1m
1-on-1: Bernier tells @GinoRedaTSN that Reimer 'deserves' to start tonight http://bit.ly/151GUwJ (vid)

#classact

leafman101
10-01-2013, 06:16 PM
17. One former Duck smiled when he heard Randy Carlyle planned to give James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier one game each in Toronto's back-to-back that opens the season. Apparently, that is a basic move in Carlyle's playbook. "He is starting the competition right away. He will make his goaltending decisions with only one interest in mind: who he thinks gives him the best chance to win."

18. Carlyle does, however, like playing more than one guy. Only once in his coaching career has a goalie played 60 games -- Jean-Sebastien Giguere in Carlyle's first Anaheim season. Also, there would be occasions where the starter would not find out until the morning of the game.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/hockey/opinion/2013/10/30-thoughts-kessel-others-set-market-for-nhls-elite.html

Montana
10-01-2013, 06:26 PM
#TeamCarlyle

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-02-2013, 08:44 AM
2013/2014 Season


Overall

Reimer (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (100.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 0 Games (0.0%)
Overall SV%: .919

Bernier (0 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 0 Games (0.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 0 Games (0.0%)
Overall SV%: 0.000

Team Overall (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (100.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 0 Games (0.0%)
Overall SV%: .919


Team Record:

Reimer (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
Overall: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)

Bernier (0 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
Overall: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)

Team Overall (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
Overall: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)


Shots Faced:

Reimer (1 gms)
Under 20: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
20-29: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
30-39: 1 gms (.919 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 37.1

Bernier (0 gms)
Under 20: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
20-29: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
30-39: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 0.00


GSSV% (Games Started SV%)

SV%
Reimer (1 gms): .919 SV%
Bernier (0 gms): 0.000 SV%


Even Strength

SV%:
Reimer (1 gms): 28/31 (.903 SV%)
Bernier (0 gms): 0/0 (0.000 SV%)


Penalty Kill:

Success Rate:
Reimer (1 gms): 4/4 (100.0%)
Bernier (0 gms): 0/0 (0.000%)

SV%:
Reimer (1 gms): 4/4 (1.000 SV%)
Bernier (0 gms): 0/0 (0.000 SV%)


Shootout:

Success Rate (Win/Loss):
Reimer (0 gms): 0/0 (0.0%)
Bernier (0 gms): 0/0 (0.0%)

SV%:
Reimer (0 gms): 0.0 (0.000%)
Bernier (0 gms): 0/0 (0.000%)

zeke
10-02-2013, 09:50 AM
I wonder at what point people will realize that reimer is a very, very, very good goalie.

bernier doesn't just have to be "good" to win the starting spot here, he has to be great.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-02-2013, 10:50 AM
I have a feeling Bernier's going to be a relatively expensive back-up this year.

I just hope Randy doesn't force feed him starts just because.

JaysCyYoung
10-02-2013, 10:52 AM
#teamreimer.

MindzEye
10-02-2013, 11:40 AM
Love him, but he really needs to work on the puck handling. He's beyond bad and into 'detrimental' with it.

leafman101
10-02-2013, 11:47 AM
I definitely think Reimer is going to win the job. What I don't get is why people feel the need to choose side, root for the other guy to fail and not even give the guy a game before making judgments.

Its ridiculous. Its in the best interest of the Toronto Maple Leafs that Jonathan Bernier is as good as he was last year. If he is the Leafs will have top 5 goaltending and be a contender. Where is the problem with that. its nonsensical.

MindzEye
10-02-2013, 11:49 AM
I definitely think Reimer is going to win the job. What I don't get is why people feel the need to choose side, root for the other guy to fail and not even give the guy a game before making judgments.

Its ridiculous. Its in the best interest of the Toronto Maple Leafs that Jonathan Bernier is as good as he was last year. If he is the Leafs will have top 5 goaltending and be a contender. Where is the problem with that. its nonsensical.


#TeamJust****ingWin

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-02-2013, 11:51 AM
But who is rooting for Bernier to fail?

People are just expressing their thoughts on who they think will be better. And just hoping Randy plays the best guy.

Given Reimer's performance last night and the W the team got, I think he should play tonight.

Volcanologist
10-02-2013, 11:55 AM
Zeke will continue on with his persecution fantasy regardless of what anyone says

I still think the Bernier move was brilliant, and that he has top flite starter potential. Reimer is a damn good goalie though, and frankly I don't give a **** which of the two plays best as long as we get awesome goaltending.

Agreed.

makes no difference to me either which one.

zeke
10-02-2013, 12:00 PM
again, I'm simply scared that we may forcefeed games to a lesser goalie for the wrong reasons.

I know how good Reimer is. And he's very good. I see very little reason to sit him out at all. I don't know why we wouldn't want him to be a full-time starter with a very heavy workload.

I just hope they make bernier earn his starts. if Bernier does earn those starts, then sweet. So far I have been less than impressed with him, at least compared to reimer, and really, this goes back for years now - bernier has had many chances to earn starts in his career, and has never really been able to.

leafman101
10-02-2013, 12:03 PM
He was able to last year.

Volcanologist
10-02-2013, 12:08 PM
You've already made up your mind that Bernier is the lesser goalie, and that any start he gets will be forced and undeserved.

You're already complaining that he starts game 2.

zeke
10-02-2013, 12:15 PM
well kind of. in addition to being a tiny sample, last year's performance doesn't really fit the narrative of what happened.

He was the clear backup for january and february and played real well. He played 6 of the club's first 20gms and played great, posting a .933sv% and a 5-1-0 record.

At that point, for the first time in the season, they decided to start him in back to back games....and in his 7th game, the first time he started two games in a row, he gave up 3 goals in 21 minutes and was pulled from the game (and the kings came back to win that game with quick in net). From then on, in his last 8gms, he posted a .912sv% and went 4-2-1, and never got back to back starts again.

zeke
10-02-2013, 12:17 PM
You've already made up your mind that Bernier is the lesser goalie, and that any start he gets will be forced and undeserved.

You're already complaining that he starts game 2.

I am worried that we are starting the lesser goalie tonight, yes.

Reimer played great last night, like he did in the preseason, and like he did last year, and most of his career. This team needs that level of goaltending to be good.

I am not sure that Bernier can give us that level of goaltending at the moment, and I'm not sold that we should be gambling he will.

Montana
10-02-2013, 12:40 PM
You can also rest assured zeke will pay no attention to other facets of the game like the puck handling skills of the two goalies, and solely rely on whatever favours Reimer and downplays Bernier.

Of that we can be sure.

Montana
10-02-2013, 12:42 PM
well kind of. in addition to being a tiny sample,


It's certainly no preseason game against Detroit which you're making your judgement on...no, that is somehow a worthwhile sample size.

leafman101
10-02-2013, 12:44 PM
well kind of. in addition to being a tiny sample, last year's performance doesn't really fit the narrative of what happened.

He was the clear backup for january and february and played real well. He played 6 of the club's first 20gms and played great, posting a .933sv% and a 5-1-0 record.

At that point, for the first time in the season, they decided to start him in back to back games....and in his 7th game, the first time he started two games in a row, he gave up 3 goals in 21 minutes and was pulled from the game (and the kings came back to win that game with quick in net). From then on, in his last 8gms, he posted a .912sv% and went 4-2-1, and never got back to back starts again.

Of course its a small sample. But he did it. He took starts away from one of the best goalies in the NHL. Period.

Can't say he's never done it.

Montana
10-02-2013, 12:45 PM
But who is rooting for Bernier to fail?

People are just expressing their thoughts on who they think will be better. And just hoping Randy plays the best guy.

Given Reimer's performance last night and the W the team got, I think he should play tonight.

We should ride the hot hand.....but handing Reimer the gig and giving him back to back starts before even giving Bernier a chance to show he's better, doesn't make sense.

Play Bernier tonight, compare his performance to Reimers, then play to hot hand going forward.....pretty simple.

zeke
10-02-2013, 12:47 PM
You can also rest assured zeke will pay no attention to other facets of the game like the puck handling skills of the two goalies

yes, actually, you can be assured that I won't care much about goalie puckhandling, because I don't.

Montana
10-02-2013, 12:49 PM
Except if the roles were reversed and Reimer was well above average and Bernier was an abortion.....then we'd never hear the end of it.

zeke
10-02-2013, 12:49 PM
Of course its a small sample. But he did it. He took starts away from one of the best goalies in the NHL. Period.

Can't say he's never done it.

well, he started 12 of 48gms last year, only once in back to back games, and was pulled in 2 of them.

zeke
10-02-2013, 12:49 PM
Except if the roles were reversed and Reimer was well above average and Bernier was an abortion.....then we'd never hear the end of it.

next time you hear me arguing against save percentage will be the first.

Montana
10-02-2013, 12:54 PM
I still think the Bernier move was brilliant, and that he has top flite starter potential. Reimer is a damn good goalie though, and frankly I don't give a **** which of the two plays best as long as we get awesome goaltending.

To add to this point, and to touch on one zeke made about us needing good goaltending to win.....that's precisely why this trade was such a smart one, because while we know fairly certainly that Reimer is a great goalie, we don't know he's a great goalie or can handle 50-60 starts, so we need a good back up. We also don't know he can stay healthy for a full season.

So getting a goalie who can be damn good for 20-30 starts, or even challenge Reimer for the full time gig is precisely the kind of move you want your GM to make. We'd all prefer if it was for a lower cap number, but I'll accept paying a little more for the potential upside that comes with Bernier and doesn't with a guy like Scrivens.

I'm exponentially more confident in our goaltending with Reimer + Bernier than I would have been with Reimer + Scrivens......I've also zero concern Carlyle will do anything but play the tender who gives us the best chance to win, given his track record.

Cojo
10-02-2013, 02:07 PM
I'd just like to bring up the saying, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

I'm not saying Bernier isn't good, but Reimer has been great and i still don't get what we were trying to do there. We don't need an all-star backup, Scrivens got the job done when he was called upon and he gave us great cap flexibility. Not to mention there was nothing wrong with Frattin either or the draft pick.

The cap we spent on Bernier has already cost us giving up Colborne at a discount. I guess at the end of the day if Colborne, Frattin, Scrivens and the draft pick don't pan out it was a good trade.

I hope Bernier does help us forget about the cost, but I really can't see him out duelling Reimer, and if he doesn't i dont think the cost was really justified - both in what we gave up and the cap cost.

And no, puck skills are not that important. Untill Bernier is racking up a bunch of assists its really not something you can use if you're trying to compensate for lesser numbers in sv % etc.

I am looking forward to seeing the guy play tonight though, haven't had the chance to watch him.

Montana
10-02-2013, 02:13 PM
#cringeworthy

MindzEye
10-02-2013, 02:24 PM
And no, puck skills are not that important.

They absolutely are. There's nothing harder for a defender to do than go retrieve the puck with his back to the forecheck, there's nothing easier for a defender than accepting a pass from his goalie with full vision of the forecheck. A good puckhandling goaltender can completely short circuit an opposition forecheck, and I think if we really looked into it, there would be a significant Corsi bump for players on teams with strong puck handling goalies.

Of course, a goalies main role is to stop the puck, but if you have two ~.920 goalies, and one is abysmal with the puck, the other is spectacular, I think you'll find that the team plays better and is more successful with the puck handling goalie in net.

leafman101
10-02-2013, 10:34 PM
So yeah, our goaltending is pretty ridiculous and will make us legit contenders.

#TeamLeafs

Volcanologist
10-02-2013, 10:37 PM
This is a legit battle. Who do you start against little brother on Saturday?

I honestly don't know.

I'd lean reimer because he seems to own them... but it's not like I'd complain if they put Bernier back in there.

leafman101
10-02-2013, 10:37 PM
Go back to Reimer. You platoon them until one of them gives you a reason not to.

hockeylover
10-02-2013, 10:53 PM
I honestly don't care.

I could see you going back to Reimer and saying "You saw what Bernier did. Match it."

Or I could see rewarding Bernier.

Either way, I'm cool.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-02-2013, 10:54 PM
2013/2014 Season


Overall

Reimer (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (100.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 0 Games (0.0%)
Overall SV%: .919

Bernier (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 0 Games (0.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 1 Games (100.0%)
Overall SV%: .969

Team Overall (2 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (50.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 1 Games (50.0%)
Overall SV%: .942


Team Record:

Reimer (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
Overall: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)

Bernier (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
Overall: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)

Team Overall (2 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
Overall: 2-0-0 (164 point pace)


Shots Faced:

Reimer (1 gms)
Under 20: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
20-29: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
30-39: 1 gms (.919 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 37.1

Bernier (1 gms)
Under 20: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
20-29: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
30-39: 1 gms (.969 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 32.0


GSSV% (Games Started SV%)

SV%
Reimer (1 gms): .919 SV%
Bernier (1 gms): .969 SV%


Even Strength

SV%:
Reimer (1 gms): 28/31 (.903 SV%)
Bernier (1 gms): 19/19 (1.000 SV%)


Penalty Kill:

Success Rate:
Reimer (1 gms): 4/4 (100.0%)
Bernier (1 gms): 6/7 (85.7%)

SV%:
Reimer (1 gms): 4/4 (1.000 SV%)
Bernier (1 gms): 12/13 (.923 SV%)


Shootout:

Success Rate (Win/Loss):
Reimer (0 gms): 0/0 (0.0%)
Bernier (0 gms): 0/0 (0.0%)

SV%:
Reimer (0 gms): 0.0 (0.000%)
Bernier (0 gms): 0/0 (0.000%)

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-02-2013, 10:59 PM
I'd probably go Reimer on Saturday because he's owned the Sens, but I wouldn't have an issue if Bernier plays.

hockeylover
10-02-2013, 11:01 PM
I'd probably go Reimer on Saturday because he's owned the Sens, but I wouldn't have an issue if Bernier plays.

:grouphug:

#TEAMBERNIER&REIMER

Montana
10-03-2013, 12:07 AM
Bernier was so overhyped.


*ahem*

Metalleaf
10-03-2013, 12:08 AM
#TeamLeafGoalies

hockeylover
10-03-2013, 02:34 AM
Reimer vs the Sens 8-1-1 with a .949 SV%.

:eek6:

Cojo
10-03-2013, 06:16 AM
Well, that was the first game I've got to watch Bernier and I was definitely impressed. If the guy keeps this up we have quite a goaltending controversy after this season.

I noticed his rebound control a lot more than his puck handling skills though!

Montana
10-03-2013, 09:46 AM
Reimer vs the Sens 8-1-1 with a .949 SV%.

:eek6:


I'm curious if the stat heads believe this kind of thing has much meaning......does a goalie "raise" his game against certain teams, or does such a statistical outcome simply happen when we're dealing with sample sizes of this nature, and really hold little value overall?

ie: would you folk.....if in a coaching position.....use something like a goalies career track record vs a certain team to make your decisions on who to start vs how they've performed most recently (which in itself, is liable to be a comparably small sample size)

Similarly, would you want Reimer getting all the starts vs Ottawa for example, or would you prefer to give them a different look in net every time we play them?

leafman101
10-03-2013, 09:58 AM
If its one game like how Bernier played Philly once and gave up 6 goals, who cares.

But if a guy is 8-1-1 with an .949 over 3 years why not ride with him. Something is working.

Montana
10-03-2013, 10:04 AM
I'm just not sure that "something" is anything real relevant......a goalie could be 8-1-1 with a .949 sv% in games played on Mondays that are a full moon, but I'm not sure there's any real correlation between the two.

Not to mention the Sens aren't the same team Reimer's played in those 10 contests.



Not saying by any stretch that I think Reimer sholdn't start, it's literally a coin flip for me, so his history against them is more than fine to decide such a 50/50 call......but I just see goalies record against an opponent referenced so often, and to me it likely means virtually nothing. I don't believe Reimer plays any differently against Ottawa than he is against any other opponent.


...but maybe there's something to be said for him being in the Sens head?

leafman101
10-03-2013, 10:08 AM
Yeah, but its not mondays on a full moon. Its playing against the same team over a relatively short period of time that also happens to be a big rival.

Maybe Reims just gets up for big games. Either way he's given you every reason to play him against the Sens and no reason not to.

Montana
10-03-2013, 10:09 AM
Reimer shouldn't need a specific opponent to "get up" for a game.....nor do I think he does. Kid brings it regardless of the opponent.

leafman101
10-03-2013, 10:12 AM
He doesn't need anything. Thats just what has happened. I bet if you asked most players they'd have a favourite team to play against. Just feel good going up against certain teams for whatever reason. The mental aspect is huge in sports.

Like I said, Reims has given every reason to play him against Ottawa and no reason not to.

Montana
10-03-2013, 10:15 AM
The other thing of course is that it's the "same team" in name only.....three of his starts against them last year (.960 sv%) was against a Sens team without Spezza, Karlsson or Bobby Ryan.

Like I say, I just don't think such data ever really tells us much of anything......or at the very least, isn't the indicator of future success some believe it to be.

Montana
10-03-2013, 10:16 AM
Like I said, Reims has given every reason to play him against Ottawa and no reason not to.


The reason to play him, is because he's a good goalie who played great in the opener.....his record against a specific jersey in the past (imo) is just a trivial piece of data.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-03-2013, 10:22 AM
If you have two relatively equal goalies -- record against a certain opponent might help you sway in one direction. But it shouldn't be the primary way to base a goalie decision imo.

leafman101
10-03-2013, 10:22 AM
The numbers are what they are. Reims has played well against Ottawa. It doesn't tell you anything else, and it doesn't need to.

Montana
10-03-2013, 10:24 AM
If you have two relatively equal goalies -- record against a certain opponent might help you sway in one direction. But it shouldn't be the primary way to base a goalie decision imo.


Yep, agree 100%.....if it's basically a coin flip decision, something trivial like past record is as good a tiebreaker as any.


I'm just talking about the use of said history as anything more....

Montana
10-03-2013, 10:26 AM
It doesn't tell you anything


Agreed.

Reimer was 5-0 against the Sens going into the last two meetings of 2011-12 with a stellar sv %......he went 0-1-1 with a .850 sv% in those two match ups. Past history meant literally nothing.

....and this team we're about to play Saturday, had even less in common with those Sens he went 5-0 against, than the team he went 0-2 against.

Montana
10-03-2013, 10:28 AM
...can't stress enough here either, I've no issue with Reimer starting Saturday, in fact I'd start him myself. I'm just using this as an example to discuss the larger point of using goalies records against a team as a predictor of future success, or as a primary rationale for giving a specific goalie the start. (also not saying hl posted said information for that purpose, I don't think she did.)

Just seen past record against a team used a ton as a reason goalie X should start against team Y (hell, I've heard coaches reference it), and imo it's not really a relevant piece of data.

leafman101
10-03-2013, 10:28 AM
One game is too small a sample size to matter. Its those repeat performances over a long period of time that start to possibly suggest something.

Montana
10-03-2013, 10:31 AM
Possibly over a long period.....but even then, the longer the period of time, the less the actual teams he's facing have in common. 10 games definitely isn't a relevant amount of games to draw much of anything, imo.

It makes for a nice substitute for a coin flip, that's about it.

leafman101
10-03-2013, 10:33 AM
Ignoring trends is just as silly as placing too much importance on them.

They are what they are, whether you understand them or not.

Montana
10-03-2013, 10:36 AM
I understand them completely... And recognize that a ten game sample ( or less in most cases) really doesn't mean much.

Just as Reimers 5-0 record, 2 shutouts and unreal sv% didn't mean anything the next two times he faced them and went 0-1-1 with a .850 sv%.


You're the one that seems insistent on it having real tangible value....when it's likely trivial at best over 10 or less game sample sizes.

Montana
10-03-2013, 10:40 AM
Ignoring trends is just as silly as placing too much importance on them.


Correlation doesn't imply causation....a goalie could be 10-0 on Mondays after the Patriots play the Bills on Sunday, that would be a trend, and it would be one I would gleefully ignore, because it would be irrelevant.

Silly would be believing that just because it's a trend, that h has meaningful value.

leafman101
10-03-2013, 11:08 AM
Correlation doesn't imply causation....a goalie could be 10-0 on Mondays after the Patriots play the Bills on Sunday, that would be a trend, and it would be one I would gleefully ignore, because it would be irrelevant.


Yeah, but obviously thats not what we are talking about here. You keep going back to that though for some reason.

Bottom line is players just play well against certain teams. I know the concept is baffling to you, and I'm sorry for your confusion, but its just the way it is. Crosby kills the Flyers and Islanders. Kessel destroys the Sens. And Reimer seems to eat up the Sens. At least to this point.

These kinds of things aren't novel in sports. You're right though, it doesn't having meaningful value. It just is.

Montana
10-03-2013, 11:18 AM
No, bottom line is that people take small sample sizes and extract from it that some players "are" playing better against certain teams, when it's far more likely that it's just a random distribution of the data that it will look better versus some teams than others.... Just performances will fall on certain days of the week more than others.

Just as I've pointed out numerous times, Reimer's previous history against the Sens didn't have any impact on him going 0-1-1 with a .850 sv% in his next two starts against them.....because it's not that he "gets up" for the Sens, as much as it's just random. Good goalies have more good performances than bad ones, but the random distribution of games will also mean that ultimately he'll have below career averages versus certain teams, doesn't mean they "have his number"



These kinds of things aren't novel in sports.

There's plenty of novel little trivial things in sports that fans and media have long put too much stock in, this is no different.



You're right though, it doesn't having meaningful value.


Glad to see you come around to the more logical side of the ledger.

leafman101
10-03-2013, 11:21 AM
Again. No one is saying because the guy statistically plays well against the Sens that he will never have a bad game against them. That would be silly.

Just like completely ignoring the fact that the guy tends to play well against the Sens would be silly.

For some reason people here don't seem to get that there is a middle ground to things. Its not always all or nothing. Its odd.

A player either sucks or he's awesome. A stat is either great or its useless. Unfortunately thats not how the world works.

LeafGm
10-03-2013, 11:27 AM
Even as a member of #TeamReimer, I'd be fine with either goalie starting on Saturday. But with both goalies having played great, the tie goes to the incumbent. Reimer's record against Ottawa, while it may not signify anything, also should add some weight to the decision. Moreso because Reimer's "earned" the start againt the Sens both his his strong start against the Habs and his performances against the Sens, than anything.

Montana
10-03-2013, 11:27 AM
Straw man.



No one is arguing that a player sucks or is awesome , not does anyone say stats are flawless or useless, quite the opposite in fact as I'm consistently arguing the importance of context to stats and the nuisances within then (look no further than this thread where I brought up the idea of weighing PK sv% to get a more accurate read on of overall sv% rankings.)


Christ, in this specific instance I'm doing precisely that, pointing out that people put far too much weigh into past record, against teams that are made up of completely different players, as some sort of tool to decide it goalie X, should start against team Y.


You're the one trying to argue it should hold more value than it deserves....which as me and PTBNL have said, is probably little more than use as a tiebreaker.

rated
10-03-2013, 11:30 AM
Both goalies had a good start to the year, but Bernier was a bit better so he should start saturday.

hockeylover
10-03-2013, 11:41 AM
I think if it were me I'd go back to Reimer and issue a challenge to him to try and top or match what we just saw out of Bernier.

But if Carlyle decides to go with Bernier, I won't be upset.

Montana
10-03-2013, 11:56 AM
I think if it were me I'd go back to Reimer and issue a challenge to him to try and top or match what we just saw out of Bernier.

But if Carlyle decides to go with Bernier, I won't be upset.


Agreed. Way way too early to say either goalie deserves to start Saturday, so nothing wrong with going back and forth until such time as one shows they deserve consecutive starts.

It's likely in the teams best interest to keep both guys as fresh as possible.

zeke
10-03-2013, 12:50 PM
Bernier's game last night was awesome.

Even though it's one game, it's good enough for me that I'm immediately comfortable going with a pure platoon for the first couple of weeks....and I'll even admit that if he can play like that consistently, this is going to be a much tougher competition for Reimer than I thought. Of course, one game isn't enough to say much (and maybe just maybe the flyers helped him out a wee bit with some rusty finishing) but I'm very impressed that he was able to do this in his first game in the blue and white. That says a lot.

I'd go right back with Reims vs. OTT, but I'm ok either way.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-03-2013, 01:10 PM
I'd go Reimer game 3, Bernier game 4. Whoever plays best gets game 5. If they're both relatively equal again, just keep alternating games.

Montana
10-03-2013, 01:13 PM
I'd go Reimer game 3, Bernier game 4. Whoever plays best gets game 5. If they're both relatively equal again, just keep alternating games.


sounds perfect.

Wayward DP
10-03-2013, 01:39 PM
I'd go Reimer game 3, Bernier game 4. Whoever plays best gets game 5. If they're both relatively equal again, just keep alternating games.

Yup, this.

BeLeafer
10-03-2013, 04:24 PM
Bernier will be made the starter soon enough.

Bleedsblue&white
10-03-2013, 05:29 PM
Bernier will be made the starter soon enough.

Probably, but Carlyle has been here before and all he wants is to win.It's possible a good competition all season is what's best for the team. My feeling is that Bernier has tools Reimer does not, and in the end that may decide things. His rebound control is better, his puck handling is not just better...Reimer's a padawan to Bernier's Yoda here...and I'm not sure Reimer can catch up.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-04-2013, 11:35 AM
Eventually they will have to choose one. But that likely won't happen this season. Both are still young, cheap and relatively unproven (in terms of playing a true starters workload), so until that changes, they don't have to officially name anyone the starter.

zeke
10-04-2013, 12:13 PM
David Alter @DavidAlter590
Carlyle on starter for tomorrow, wouldn't say who it is but "made that decision long ago"

Montana
10-04-2013, 12:18 PM
nice. I suspect that means it'll be Reimer.

LeafGm
10-04-2013, 12:51 PM
Yeah, it's gotta be Reimer. Unless Carlyle is just ****ing with the media.

hockeylover
10-04-2013, 12:53 PM
I learned yesterday that the way my pool is set up if you don't get three goaltender starts in a week, you lose all your goaltender points. Was pretty nervous there for a bit because my goalies are okay but are both in platoon situations so not ideal for that rule. Reimer playing again would save me my points.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-04-2013, 12:57 PM
Randy should walk up to the mic during the media scrum and announce drew macintyre will be starting just to **** with them

hockeylover
10-05-2013, 02:41 AM
Found this on HFtards. It's perfect.

http://i.imgur.com/wDKWPo7.gif

Montana
10-05-2013, 05:02 AM
#TeamDaffy

Kritter
10-05-2013, 07:15 AM
If people here want to argue for one guy over the next based on talent level, that's fine. I get the "they are both good goalie" arguments. But, IMO, simple based on how much better Bernier handles the puck, he should be, without a doubt, our #1.
If you could calculate such a thing, I wonder how much Brodeurs puck handling skills contributed to his GA average and SV% over his career.

KingTucker
10-05-2013, 10:43 AM
If you could calculate such a thing, I wonder how much Brodeurs puck handling skills contributed to his GA average and SV% over his career.

Try this article by the Cult of Hockey, they took a bunch of his touches and measured scoring impact, etc.
http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/05/25/tender-touches-an-attempt-to-measure-martin-brodeurs-puckhandling-impact/

Bleedsblue&white
10-05-2013, 01:13 PM
If you could calculate such a thing, I wonder how much Brodeurs puck handling skills contributed to his GA average and SV% over his career.

At the very least he negated opposition scoring chances.

MindzEye
10-05-2013, 01:30 PM
If people here want to argue for one guy over the next based on talent level, that's fine. I get the "they are both good goalie" arguments. But, IMO, simple based on how much better Bernier handles the puck, he should be, without a doubt, our #1.
If you could calculate such a thing, I wonder how much Brodeurs puck handling skills contributed to his GA average and SV% over his career.

We've touched on this in some earlier discussions on Bernier V Reimer, but I think the biggest difference would show up in Corsi/Fenwick. I think you'll find over time that the team will have better possession numbers when Bernier is on the ice. The question for me is, will the difference be significant enough to make up for any SV% advantage Reimer could have over Bernier.

I love Reimer, but dude needs to work on his puck handling badly. Hopefully having Bernier around to practice with will be helpful in that regard.

Montana
10-05-2013, 01:32 PM
Try this article by the Cult of Hockey, they took a bunch of his touches and measured scoring impact, etc.
http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/05/25/tender-touches-an-attempt-to-measure-martin-brodeurs-puckhandling-impact/

It's a Saturday, I got shit to do.....someone give me a TL : DR

MindzEye
10-05-2013, 01:45 PM
I gave it a skim and this seems to be the TL:DR version

The author tracked goalie touches for one playoff series (NJ-PHI from 2 playoffs ago) and Brodeur is a beast with the puck. Completes 92% of his passes successfully (measured as successful by either passing it by an opposition player or a subjective "making it easier for a team mate"), he cleared dump ins by himself 32 times in the series to Bryzgalov's 13, and while Bryzgalov "fielded" (set it up for a team mate behind the net) the puck 3 times for every clearance on his own, Brodeur had more clearances than "fields".

Basically, Brodeur handled the puck a lot more than Bryzgalov and due to that, was forced to make 20 fewer saves through out the course of the series, despite seeing a lot more of the puck in his end (total touches of the puck was 155 to 78)

LeafGm
10-06-2013, 10:31 AM
Reimer: GP 2, 1-0-0, 4.62 GAA, 0.879 SV%
Bernier: GP 2, 2-0-0, 0.64 GAA, 0.979 SV%

Well, statistically, the game last night didn't help James much. Bernier could really gain some momentum if he puts in another strong start on Tuesday.

zeke
10-06-2013, 01:42 PM
expect some weeping and gnashing of teeth when Randy goes with Reimer vs. nashville no matter what happens tuesday.

Montana
10-06-2013, 02:08 PM
...and well he should.



Deciding the competition this early would be ridiculous.



I'm shocked by how many think that one game has basically decided it.

BeLeafer
10-06-2013, 02:17 PM
I personally think it's a faux competition. Bernier will eventually be made the starter unless he really craps the bed.

Montana
10-06-2013, 02:28 PM
The better goalie will be made the starter......there are no conspiracies against Reimer at work. As much as people would love to believe there are.

Why people would think the organization (and Carlyle in particular) would see any value in giving the starting job to someone who doesn't deserve it, is beyond me.

BeLeafer
10-06-2013, 02:33 PM
I didn't say anything about conspiracy. It's pretty obvious they don't see Reimer as a long-term starter.

Montana
10-06-2013, 02:36 PM
You didn't have to, your words implied it for you.


If you think it's a "faux competition" then you clearly believe it's a conspiracy against Reimer and he isn't going to get a fair shot at it.

BeLeafer
10-06-2013, 02:37 PM
You didn't have to, your words implied it for you.


If you think it's a "faux competition" then you clearly believe it's a conspiracy against Reimer and he isn't going to get a fair shot at it.
I think they're lying when they say it's an up in the air competition. Yes, that's true.

I just hope Bernier is as good as he's looked early.

JaysCyYoung
10-06-2013, 03:48 PM
I'm guessing MLSE is banking on Bernier taking the number one job...

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/1382150_10100606367666941_1569652073_n.jpg

Montana
10-06-2013, 03:56 PM
Can you elaborate a bit on that Jays....is - where that's located, how man similar murals (for lack of a better term) there are, what other players do have them, if Reimer has one anywhere in the building, etc.

JaysCyYoung
10-06-2013, 04:09 PM
That's one of the sixth floor elevators (gondola and suite level), each with a Leaf or Raptor player on the door (there's three - one left, one middle, and one right). I haven't seen any Reimer ones to date, but I'll check on each floor on Wednesday (Raptors game) and let you know.

Pretty sure they alternate between Raptors and Leafs by floor though, so that might not be true.

Montana
10-06-2013, 04:11 PM
How many floors?....and fair to assume it's an even split between Raps/Leafs?

JaysCyYoung
10-06-2013, 04:13 PM
How many floors?

Six floors, each with three elevators on each level for fan/employee use. There are other service elevators for employees only in the loading and cargo areas.

So there are a total of eighteen elevators that fans can directly access, each emblazoned with a specific player mural. I'll go searching for one of Reimer next time, but to date I didn't notice one of him.

Montana
10-06-2013, 04:17 PM
So I'm guessing there are probably 9 Leafs, 9 Raps.

Bernier
Kessel
Lupul
Phaneuf
JVR
Kadri
Gardiner
Reimer
Clarkson

Would be my guess of the 9, but it while it's obviously only anecdotal, it would be kinda intriguing if Reimer wasn't one of them and Bernier was.

JaysCyYoung
10-06-2013, 04:26 PM
They put four or five new framed pictures of current Leafs in the ramp leading up to the Leafs dressing room as well. They now compliment all of the old championship photos of guys like Mahovlich, Keon, Horton, etc. and former Leafs stars like Sundin, Clark, Gilmour, and Salming.

The guys in the pictures are Bozak and Kessel celebrating in one of them, Lupul scoring, an action shot of Phaneuf, and a close-up of Clarkson during a face-off.

It's pretty obvious that the pictures/murals are reflecting which players the corporate guys best want to promote.

Montana
10-06-2013, 04:34 PM
You should definitely snag some more photos and post them up......and yeah it's not surprising that corporate would want to promote some of the new additions in Bernier, Clarkson etc....that makes some sense.

...be kinda gross if Reimer wasn't up there tho, he clearly deserves to be.

JaysCyYoung
10-06-2013, 04:41 PM
I'll take some shots next time and put them up.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-06-2013, 09:23 PM
2013/2014 Season


Overall

Reimer (2 gms)
.879 & Under: 1 Games (50.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (50.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 0 Games (0.0%)
Overall SV%: .879

Bernier (2 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 0 Games (0.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 2 Games (100.0%)
Overall SV%: .979

Team Overall (3 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 1 Games (33.3%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (33.3%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 1 Games (33.3%)
Overall SV%: .924


Team Record:

Reimer (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
Overall: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)

Bernier (2 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 2-0-0 (164 point pace)
Overall: 2-0-0 (164 point pace)

Team Overall (3 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
Overall: 3-0-0 (164 point pace)


Shots Faced:

Reimer (2 gms)
Under 20: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
20-29: 1 gms (.810 SV%)
30-39: 1 gms (.919 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 38.4

Bernier (2 gms)
Under 20: 1 gms (1.000 SV%)
20-29: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
30-39: 1 gms (.969 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 30.0


GSSV% (Games Started SV%)

SV%
Reimer (2 gms): .879 SV%
Bernier (1 gms): .969 SV%


Even Strength

SV%:
Reimer (2 gms): 44/51 (.863 SV%)
Bernier (2 gms): 34/34 (1.000 SV%)


Penalty Kill:

Success Rate:
Reimer (2 gms): 5/5 (100.0%)
Bernier (2 gms): 6/7 (85.7%)

SV%:
Reimer (2 gms): 5/5 (1.000 SV%)
Bernier (2 gms): 12/13 (.923 SV%)


Shootout:

Success Rate (Win/Loss):
Reimer (0 gms): 0/0 (0.0%)
Bernier (1 gms): 1/0 (100.0%)

SV%:
Reimer (0 gms): 0.0 (0.000%)
Bernier (1 gms): 2/2 (1.000%)

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-06-2013, 11:25 PM
Tiny sample size of course, but the Leafs are allowing a lot less shots with Bernier in goal. We will see if this trend continues.

Montana
10-06-2013, 11:27 PM
fewer rebounds allowed + better puck handling = fewer shots against.


The current discrepancy won't hold, but I fully expect Bernier to see fewer shots per 60, over the course of the season.

BITTER BUD
10-07-2013, 08:29 AM
They put four or five new framed pictures of current Leafs in the ramp leading up to the Leafs dressing room as well. They now compliment all of the old championship photos of guys like Mahovlich, Keon, Horton, etc. and former Leafs stars like Sundin, Clark, Gilmour, and Salming.

The guys in the pictures are Bozak and Kessel celebrating in one of them, Lupul scoring, an action shot of Phaneuf, and a close-up of Clarkson during a face-off.

It's pretty obvious that the pictures/murals are reflecting which players the corporate guys best want to promote.

well, that (with the exception of Phaneuf, but he is the captain) are all signed to longer term contracts so less chance of having to take them down prematurely and have to color up some new ones ...LOL

number17
10-07-2013, 09:07 AM
I wouldn't read too much into the elevator door ... i mean, they had Luke Schenn's picture all over ACC before ... :)

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-10-2013, 09:59 AM
2013/2014 Season


Overall

Reimer (2 gms)
.879 & Under: 1 Games (50.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (50.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 0 Games (0.0%)
Overall SV%: .879

Bernier (3 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 0 Games (0.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 3 Games (100.0%)
Overall SV%: .963

Team Overall (4 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 1 Games (25.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (25.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 2 Games (50.0%)
Overall SV%: .928


Team Record:

Reimer (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
Overall: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)

Bernier (3 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 2-1-0 (109 point pace)
Overall: 2-1-0 (109 point pace)

Team Overall (4 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 1-1-0 (82 point pace)
Overall: 3-1-0 (123 point pace)


Shots Faced:

Reimer (2 gms)
Under 20: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
20-29: 1 gms (.810 SV%)
30-39: 1 gms (.919 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 38.4

Bernier (3 gms)
Under 20: 1 gms (1.000 SV%)
20-29: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
30-39: 2 gms (.954 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 31.3


GSSV% (Games Started SV%)

SV%
Reimer (2 gms): .879 SV%
Bernier (2 gms): .954 SV%


Even Strength

SV%:
Reimer (2 gms): 44/51 (.863 SV%)
Bernier (3 gms): 61/63 (.968 SV%)


Penalty Kill:

Success Rate:
Reimer (2 gms): 5/5 (100.0%)
Bernier (3 gms): 9/10 (90.0%)

SV%:
Reimer (2 gms): 5/5 (1.000 SV%)
Bernier (3 gms): 16/17 (.941 SV%)


Shootout:

Success Rate (Win/Loss):
Reimer (0 gms): 0/0 (0.0%)
Bernier (1 gms): 1/0 (100.0%)

SV%:
Reimer (0 gms): 0.0 (0.000%)
Bernier (1 gms): 2/2 (1.000%)

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-10-2013, 02:48 PM
The whole 'win and you're in thing' is sort of funny because only 1 time this year has a Leafs goalie started the next game after a win. And if Reimer didn't shit the bed against the Sens which allowed Bernier to get the win in relief, it wouldn't have happened at all.

Not that I disagree with how Randy has handled the goalies though...

leafman101
10-10-2013, 05:15 PM
I think its more of a play better and youre in, than win and you're in.

KingTucker
10-10-2013, 09:55 PM
Doug Norris (AKA Taco MacArthur at HFTards) has an excellent goalie resource page here:

(I've linked to the Leafs section as it interests us more.)
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/toronto.html

Note that Reimer saves around 26 GA above an average replacement goaltender, and his best season is about 1.3 standard deviations above average. Laughingly, we hadn't had a goaltender in that range since...Eddie Belfour's 30+ goals above replacement in the early 2000s. TEN YEARS OF STEAMING CRAP.

I'm curious to see where Bernier tallies at end of year. Just as a note, the completely nutso Goals Prevented Above Replacement?
Dominic Hasek in 96-97 was 89 goals prevented better than average. Patrick Roy in 93-94 was 74.9 and just for shits and giggles, I looked up Henrik Lundqvist, who was 55.6 goals prevented better than average at his best. (Craig Anderson has been 30 or so the past few years, well below Ray Emery's 48 in 2006-07, but still nothing to sneeze at!)

The stats also cover standard deviations above average performance and so on. Great stuff and the guy is thorough, even defunct franchises are analyzed.

CTheBigPicture
10-10-2013, 10:03 PM
Feeling awful for Reimer. Randy just can't take Bernier out tum the next back to back. He's been too good.

hockeylover
10-10-2013, 10:06 PM
Don't feel awful for Reimer. He's probably sitting happily on the bench. Great guy.

He'll get another chance. It's a long season. Bernier's not gonna have a great night every single start.

Jeremy
10-10-2013, 10:07 PM
Can't complain with having 2 great goalies.

hockeylover
10-10-2013, 10:49 PM
Randy Numbers ‏@randynumbers 57s
Jonathan Bernier is the first #Leafs goaltender in over 50 years to allow three or fewer goals over his first four games with the team.

leafman101
10-11-2013, 12:22 AM
Yeah no need to feel awful for Reimer. Bernier won't play this well all season. he has like a .970 save percentage. And when he starts to falter we can throw Reimer in there and hopefully he gets hot. Then when he falters you go back to Bernier. That is how teams end up with crazy .930 goaltending.

Montana
10-11-2013, 12:52 AM
.974

Montana
10-11-2013, 01:08 AM
.923 sv% for Bernier over his last 34 games.

hockeylover
10-11-2013, 01:10 AM
Here's hoping Nonis was as right about Clarkson as he's looked about Bolland, Bernier and Raymond thus far.

Montana
10-11-2013, 01:17 AM
I've been saying it to my buddies since the moment it happened.....the silver lining to the Clarkson suspension is that it's a like having a present that's coming in the mail the week after Christmas.

It's going to be fun having that jolt of excitement at game 11.

LeafGm
10-11-2013, 06:37 AM
Sochi watch: Canadian goalies

Jonathan Bernier: 3-1-0, 0.85 GAA, .974 SV%, 1 SO
Marc-Andre Fleury: 3-0-0, 1.00 GAA, .963 SV%, 1 SO
Steve Mason: 1-2-0, 2.02 GAA, .935 SV%, 0 SO

Mike Smith: 2-2-0, 3.01 GAA, .911 SV%, 0 SO
Carey Price: 1-2-0, 2.70 GAA, .907 SV%, 0 SO

Roberto Luongo: 2-2-0, 2.74 GAA, .899 SV%, 0 SO
Cam Ward: 0-1-1, 3.90 GAA, .893 SV%, 0 SO
Corey Crawford: 1-1-1, 2.92 GAA, .890 SV%, 0 SO
Martin Brodeur: 0-0-2, 3.23 GAA, .868 SV%, 0 SO

JackBurton
10-11-2013, 09:09 AM
And people ripped Dreger for saying Bernier could get Olympic consideration.

Artnes
10-11-2013, 09:14 AM
Hard to say who they will consider at this point but do you even bother to take Fleury at this point regardless of his numbers this season.

Why take the chance given his tendency to shit the bed.

MindzEye
10-11-2013, 09:20 AM
We need to annex Finland or something, the state of our goaltending is horrific.

JackBurton
10-11-2013, 09:20 AM
I'd feel bad for Reimer, but he still makes so much money and bangs that hot wife of his. Plus, with no electricity to pay for, he has even more money than we imagine.

LeafGm
10-11-2013, 09:59 AM
Hard to say who they will consider at this point but do you even bother to take Fleury at this point regardless of his numbers this season.

Why take the chance given his tendency to shit the bed.
I'd rather leave Fleury at home too, but the pickings are pretty slim, especially with Ward, Luongo and Price all looking less than stellar. The bottom line is that recent choking aside, he does have a Cup ring that he earned as a starting goaltender. Crawford and Brodeur are the only other ones on that list that can make that claim, and they've got plenty of question marks of their own, with Brodeur looking done and Crawford only having one season as an above-average starter under his belt. If Fleury is still putting up decent numbers by the new year, I don't think you have much of a choice.

Still, hopefully someone else (selfishly, we all hope it's Bernier) can outplay him and take away any consideration of giving him the starting gig.

JaysCyYoung
10-11-2013, 11:50 AM
I'd feel bad for Reimer, but he still makes so much money and bangs that hot wife of his. Plus, with no electricity to pay for, he has even more money than we imagine.

I feel like this post isn't getting enough love. Nice Mennonite quip there. :lol

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-11-2013, 11:52 AM
2013/2014 Season


Overall

Reimer (2 gms)
.879 & Under: 1 Games (50.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (50.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 0 Games (0.0%)
Overall SV%: .879

Bernier (4 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 0 Games (0.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 4 Games (100.0%)
Overall SV%: .974

Team Overall (5 gms)
.879 & Under: 0 Games (0.0%)
.880-889: 1 Games (20.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (20.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 3 Games (60.0%)
Overall SV%: .943


Team Record:

Reimer (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
Overall: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)

Bernier (4 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 3-1-0 (123 point pace)
Overall: 3-1-0 (123 point pace)

Team Overall (5 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 2-1-0 (109 point pace)
Overall: 4-1-0 (131 point pace)


Shots Faced:

Reimer (2 gms)
Under 20: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
20-29: 1 gms (.810 SV%)
30-39: 1 gms (.919 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 38.4

Bernier (4 gms)
Under 20: 1 gms (1.000 SV%)
20-29: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
30-39: 3 gms (.970 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 32.6


GSSV% (Games Started SV%)

SV%
Reimer (2 gms): .879 SV%
Bernier (3 gms): .970 SV%


Even Strength

SV%:
Reimer (2 gms): 44/51 (.863 SV%)
Bernier (4 gms): 88/90 (.978 SV%)


Penalty Kill:

Success Rate:
Reimer (2 gms): 5/5 (100.0%)
Bernier (4 gms): 12/13 (92.3%)

SV%:
Reimer (2 gms): 5/5 (1.000 SV%)
Bernier (4 gms): 25/26 (.962 SV%)


Shootout:

Success Rate (Win/Loss):
Reimer (0 gms): 0/0 (0.0%)
Bernier (1 gms): 1/0 (100.0%)

SV%:
Reimer (0 gms): 0.0 (0.000%)
Bernier (1 gms): 2/2 (1.000%)

leafman101
10-11-2013, 03:31 PM
"It doesn’t surprise me at all," Lombardi told ESPN.com Friday. "We knew this guy. After the trade, he sent me a text to thank me for trading him. I replied back, 'I just wish I could have been Glen Sather and had Moog and Fuhr but that is impossible today.'"

...

"I don’t think any general manager wants to be in that position where you have to trade a player and he’s a really good player," Lombardi said.

"What makes this tough is that it’s procedural, you have to move him, it’s not even a hockey deal, you’re looking for an asset deal."

What made it worse for Lombardi is that he doesn’t feel other NHL teams fully realized Bernier’s potential and value.

"You’ve got something that’s valuable that you have to move, but the market doesn’t recognize it," Lombardi said.

"(Toronto GM) Dave Nonis was really the only one who was seriously interested in him. Everyone else was just tire-kicking. I was shocked at the lack of real interest. He had proven himself again last season. The other reason I think people overlook Bernier is because he is small; they overlook his hockey sense which is his best asset.

"I give Nonis a lot of credit. A week after he got the (GM) job (in Toronto), he was all over Bernier."

At the time, however, Lombardi didn’t want to pull the trigger with Toronto early in the lockout-shortened season.

"We almost had a deal at the beginning of last season, but I was really nervous about Quick coming back from his back surgery," Lombardi said. "And thank God we didn’t make the deal then because sure enough, we don’t make the playoffs without Bernier. But I had to move him after the season."

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nhl&id=27109&src=desktop&wjb

Artnes
10-11-2013, 04:11 PM
Nonis>

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-11-2013, 04:13 PM
Scrivens has a 1.000 SV% this season.

:smilewinkgrin:

Montana
10-11-2013, 04:15 PM
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nhl&id=27109&src=desktop&wjb


Great read, cheers for posting it up.

LeafGm
10-11-2013, 04:38 PM
It's interesting that Nonis set his sights on Bernier as soon as he got the top job here.

It makes all of Mike Gillis's phony bluster about the trade market for Luongo and last minute desperate trade attempt at the deadline last season all the more funny.

Leafin'
10-11-2013, 05:31 PM
So far so good.

If Bernier wins the Vezina, the Cup and Gold Medal for Canada i will personally build a shrine outside the ACCin Nonis' honor.

MindzEye
10-11-2013, 05:43 PM
Nonis definitely seems to have rule 1 of general managing down pat....drop everything, and go get a ****ing goalie.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-13-2013, 11:29 AM
2013/2014 Season


Overall:

Reimer (2 gms)
.879 & Under: 1 Games (50.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (50.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 0 Games (0.0%)
Overall SV%: .879

Bernier (5 gms)
.879 & Under: 1 Games (20.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 0 Games (0.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 4 Games (80.0%)
Overall SV%: .946

Team Overall (6 gms)
.879 & Under: 1 Games (16.7%)
.880-889: 1 Games (16.7%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (16.7%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 3 Games (50.0%)
Overall SV%: .927


Team Record:

Reimer (1 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
Overall: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)

Bernier (5 gms)
.879 & Under: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 3-1-0 (123 point pace)
Overall: 4-1-0 (131 point pace)

Team Overall (6 gms)
.879 & Under: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.880-.889: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 2-1-0 (109 point pace)
Overall: 5-1-0 (137 point pace)


Shots Faced:

Reimer (2 gms)
Under 20: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
20-29: 1 gms (.810 SV%)
30-39: 1 gms (.919 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 38.4

Bernier (5 gms)
Under 20: 1 gms (1.000 SV%)
20-29: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
30-39: 4 gms (.939 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 32.1


GSSV% (Games Started SV%):

SV%
Reimer (2 gms): .879 SV%
Bernier (4 gms): .939 SV%


Even Strength:

SV%:
Reimer (2 gms): 44/51 (.863 SV%)
Bernier (5 gms): 106/112 (.946 SV%)


Penalty Kill:

Success Rate:
Reimer (2 gms): 5/5 (100.0%)
Bernier (5 gms): 15/17 (88.2%)

SV%:
Reimer (2 gms): 5/5 (1.000 SV%)
Bernier (5 gms): 33/35 (.943 SV%)


Shootout:

Success Rate (Win/Loss):
Reimer (0 gms): 0/0 (0.0%)
Bernier (1 gms): 1/0 (100.0%)

SV%:
Reimer (0 gms): 0.0 (0.000%)
Bernier (1 gms): 2/2 (1.000%)

zeke
10-14-2013, 07:11 PM
http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2013/10/14/4835042/nhl-stats-goalies-performance-predictions

Forecasting a goalie's future has proven to be quite difficult, and Brian Macdonald has published some really nice work on goalie analysis that I'd like to highlight.

From Cristobal Huet to Rick DiPietro to Ilya Bryzgalov, recent history is littered with laughably bad goalie contracts. My favorite example is the Tim Thomas double-bluff, in which his contract was briefly placed in the hysterically bad category, a year before he set the all-time record for highest save percentage.

Why are goalies so tough to predict? It's not because they're all crazy; it's a pretty simple issue of sample size.

A save percentage of .920 is a top-ten performance, while .910 would be nothing more than a good backup. But the difference between the two is just one save every 100 shots. That's an awfully narrow margin, and it takes an awfully large sample size to reliably identify differences that small. Much larger than you might expect -- several thousand shots, and even more if you want finer distinctions than top-ten versus good backup.

An 18th century minister's thoughts on goalies

So let's say we have a goalie who's posted a strong save percentage in his rookie year and we want to figure out how likely he is to keep it up. The best way to handle situations like this is usually with Bayesian analysis, a method that accounts for two things:

How rare would it be to find a goalie who's really as good as the player in question seems to be?
How rare would it be to see a performance like this just from a random hot streak?
Brian's done that in his series and has put together some beautiful illustrations of how it works. He's looking specifically at even strength save percentage, so the numbers are a bit different from the more common overall save percentage, but the principles are exactly the same. He's done a really nice job of explaining it, so I encourage you to read his series.

I'll just skip to the fantastic illustration of how our estimate of a goalie's true skill evolves with sample size. In this case, we're using Roberto Luongo as an example.

Luongo_medium

In this image, the red curve is Brian's estimate of the league-wide distribution of talent and the red dot is for the league-wide average. The blue dot is for Luongo's performance over the period in question. The black curve is for the estimated range of possibilities for his true talent, and the black dot is for the most likely guess of his true talent.

You can see that as he faces more shots, we get more confidence that what we've seen from him tells us how good he really is -- the black dot (our best estimate) moves closer to the blue dot (his observed performance), and the curve representing the range of possibilities gets narrower and narrower.

It's really nice work.

Neat. How do I do that?
Here's a do-it-yourself table. Brian kindly shared with me his estimate of the underlying talent distribution, which I used to calculate the following:

Even strength shots faced
500 1000 2500 5000 7500
Even
strength
sv% .900 91810 91510 9118 9077 9056
.905 91910 91710 9138 9107 9096
.910 92010 9189 9168 9147 9136
.915 92110 9209 9198 9176 9176
.920 92210 9219 9218 9216 9215
.925 92310 9239 9248 9246 9245
.930 92310 9249 9267 9276 9285
.935 92410 9269 9297 9316 9325
.940 92510 9279 9317 9346 9365
The rows represent the even strength save percentage posted by the goalie you're interested in; the columns represent the number of shots he's faced.

For example, if your goalie has posted a .930 even-strength save percentage over 1,000 shots, you'd look at the .930 SV% row and the 1,000 shot column. There, you'd see "9249", which means that we'd guess his true long-run talent is .924, and that there's a 95% chance he'll be within .009 of that (i.e. between .915 and .933). So you can use this table to estimate how confident your team should be in their young goalie, or which free agent they should pursue.

The fine print

There is one caveat about the assumed underlying distribution of talent. Brian is using a curve that is roughly bell-shaped, centered at about .922. This is fairly reasonable if we're talking about players who will get prolonged opportunities as starters or career backups.

The table above probably breaks down for replacement level guys -- this calculation will markedly overestimate the chances that the Alex Stalock's and Jeff Frazee's of the world are .922 goalies. Since we don't often get called on to forecast their careers, I'm not too worried about that; If you're bothering to wonder about a goalie's future, it's probably someone for whom the table above will apply reasonably well.

But Stalock and Frazee are examples of a broader issue that is worth thinking about. The reason they don't work out right is that this analysis doesn't use anything except the goalie's NHL history to date, and in the absence of data to the contrary, it assumes that the goalie is league average. But for Stalock and Frazee, things like their AHL performance and depth chart position tell us they're probably much worse than that, so in reality our prior assumption on them is very different from what this calculation assumes.

In a similar vein, pre-NHL performance can make us more optimistic about a goalie than we might otherwise be, as with (for example) Viktor Fasth's .929 save percentage on almost 3,000 shots in Sweden, or Jonathan Bernier's .927 on over 3,000 AHL shots. In general, these corrections will be smaller -- it's easy to see how a goalie's AHL performance would make you quite sure that he's not going to make it in the NHL, but it's harder for his AHL performance to make you sure that he will.

Still, it's worth bearing in mind that while NHL performance is the most useful evidence of how good a goalie is, it's not the only factor.

I think it's important to acknowledge these minor caveats so that those who pursue this line of analysis can be as thorough as possible. Nevertheless, I don't want to distract from the major point here: Brian has written a very nice series laying out a strong approach to evaluating goalies, and has done it in an easy-to-read style with some fantastic graphics.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-15-2013, 09:59 AM
Good article. Maybe need to use a 3 year sample size on goalies. Bigger sample the better.

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-16-2013, 09:33 AM
2013/2014 Season


Overall:

Reimer (3 gms)
.879 & Under: 1 Games (33.3%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (33.3%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 1 Games (33.3%)
Overall SV%: .916

Bernier (5 gms)
.879 & Under: 1 Games (20.0%)
.880-889: 0 Games (0.0%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 0 Games (0.0%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 4 Games (80.0%)
Overall SV%: .946

Team Overall (7 gms)
.879 & Under: 1 Games (14.3%)
.880-889: 1 Games (14.3%)
.890-.899: 0 Games (0.0%)
.900-.909: 0 Games (0.0%)
.910-.919: 1 Games (14.3%)
.920-.929: 0 Games (0.0%)
.930 & Above: 4 Games (57.1%)
Overall SV%: .934


Team Record:

Reimer (2 gms)
.879 & Under: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.930 & Above: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
Overall: 2-0-0 (164 point pace)

Bernier (5 gms)
.879 & Under: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.880-.889: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 3-1-0 (123 point pace)
Overall: 4-1-0 (131 point pace)

Team Overall (7 gms)
.879 & Under: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.880-.889: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.890-.899: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.900-.909: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.910-.919: 1-0-0 (164 point pace)
.920-.929: 0-0-0 (0 point pace)
.930 & Above: 3-1-0 (123 point pace)
Overall: 6-1-0 (141 point pace)


Shots Faced:

Reimer (3 gms)
Under 20: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
20-29: 1 gms (.810 SV%)
30-39: 2 gms (.946 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 37.8

Bernier (5 gms)
Under 20: 1 gms (1.000 SV%)
20-29: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
30-39: 4 gms (.939 SV%)
Over 40: 0 gms (0.000 SV%)
Shots Faced Per 60 Minutes Played: 32.1


GSSV% (Games Started SV%):

SV%
Reimer (3 gms): .916 SV%
Bernier (4 gms): .939 SV%


Even Strength:

SV%:
Reimer (3 gms): 68/75 (.907 SV%)
Bernier (5 gms): 106/112 (.946 SV%)


Penalty Kill:

Success Rate:
Reimer (3 gms): 9/10 (90.0%)
Bernier (5 gms): 15/17 (88.2%)

SV%:
Reimer (3 gms): 15/16 (.938 SV%)
Bernier (5 gms): 33/35 (.943 SV%)


Shootout:

Success Rate (Win/Loss):
Reimer (0 gms): 0/0 (0.0%)
Bernier (1 gms): 1/0 (100.0%)

SV%:
Reimer (0 gms): 0.0 (0.000%)
Bernier (1 gms): 2/2 (1.000%)

PlayerToBeNamedLater
10-16-2013, 09:54 AM
Top 10 Canadian Goalies, 13/14:

1 J. Harding: 5 gms, .952
2 J. Bernier: 5 gms, .946
3 C. Price: 5 gms, .944
4 B. Scrivens: 3 gms, .939
5 M. Fleury: 5 gms, .926
6 S. Mason: 5 gms, .926
7 C. Crawford: 5 gms, .917
8 J. Reimer: 3 gms, .916
9 C. Ward: 5 gms, .913
10 M. Smith: 6 gms, .905