Maple Leafs must keep first pick, deal Phil Kessel: Cox
By: Damien Cox Sports Columnist, Published on Mon Jan 28 2013
There’s only one untouchable on the Maple Leafs.
The man with no name.
Not Clint Eastwood, or his empty chair.
The 2013 first-round draft choice.
It is to be protected, retained and cherished, although other teams covet it and have already started suggesting it should be included in proposed trades.
Sucker trades. Like Ernie Hicke to help you now.
That ’13 pick, among many reasons, is why there won’t be an offer sheet from the Leafs for P.K. Subban. The Canadiens just might be willing to forgo matching and take the compensatory picks, after all, for a shot at Nathan MacKinnon or Seth Jones.
Beyond that, the betting here is that new GM Dave Nonis won’t do what Floyd Smith did, or what Cliff Fletcher did, or what Pat Quinn did, or what John Ferguson Jr. did, or what Brian Burke did.
There will be no trading away the first-rounder in an attempt to make the present more palatable.
The Leafs seemed to have learned — finally — that blue-chip youngsters are not to be rushed.
Similarly, surely they have learned through Tom Kurvers, the return of Wendel, Owen Nolan, Andrew Raycroft and Phil Kessel that the very definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and forecasting a different result.
At least when Kessel was acquired it could be imagined that one day he would be an untouchable. But it hasn’t happened, and worse,
in the early days of the shortened 2012-13 season it appears he may be poised to struggle through his most difficult season in a Leaf uniform yet.
Kessel appears ill-conditioned, isolated, troubled or simply massively unlucky, or some combination of those.
Whatever the case, it is becoming difficult to imagine a scenario in which Kessel remains a Leaf beyond the end of this season.
Part of that is, like Alex Anthopoulos with Vernon Wells, it becomes easier for the successor to exterminate the albatross than for he who attracted the burdensome seabird in the first place.
Unlike Burke, Nonis doesn’t have to defend the Kessel deal. No better way to cut ties with the past and move on than to move this player.
Some might suggest the same should apply to captain Dion Phaneuf, and there’s an argument to be made for that. The difference, however, is that Phaneuf was all but stolen in a trade with Calgary.
Kessel cost the Leafs a great deal, as much, perhaps, in prestige as in actual assets. Indeed, that deal may ultimately have cost Burke his job.
That’s not to blame Kessel for the state of the team, although as the star forward, he has to shoulder his fair share.
Personality-wise, this just hasn’t been a fit. Like Andrea Bargnani, he could be a nice secondary piece on a good team.
On a young, struggling team, however, he can’t be the front man.
Beyond that, if you’re the Leafs, you don’t want to be the team that has to figure out what to pay Kessel once his current deal ends at the conclusion of next season.
At a $5.4 million cap hit ($5.1 million in real money this season), he’s affordable given his stats and goal-scoring ability.
At $7 million, or $8 million, it will be much different. And that’s what he’ll be able to demand.
Moreover, the Leafs don’t want to lose him for nothing as an unrestricted free agent.
The ideal time to trade him would have been last summer, but Burke was still in charge and the lockout got in the way of everything.
Now, given the state of the team and the 25-year-old Kessel’s contractual status going forward, the April 3 trade deadline looms as the unofficial deadline to move this player, and there will be takers.
The kind of deal the Leafs should be looking for will be similar to that made by Columbus at last year’s deadline when Jeff Carter, then 27, was moved to the L.A. Kings for 25-year-old defenceman Jack Johnson and a first-round pick.
In 239 games with the Leafs, Kessel has potted 99 goals. Basically, that averages out to 33 goals per season, a number only 18 NHL players (2 per cent) hit last season and only 13 (1.4 per cent) did the season before that.
Kessel does well what very few NHLers do well. So, even with warts, he has great value, particularly to a team strong enough that he can play in a supporting role, as a secondary scoring threat.
Nonis, if he is to succeed, must put his stamp on this team in relatively short order, and must articulate a new direction fans can readily understand and embrace.
He has the patience and foresight to do that. Whether the new GM has the support of the new ownership, well, nobody knows.
But trading Kessel is the likeliest first step to the needed reset.
