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Metalleaf
02-24-2014, 10:16 PM
10 days away.....

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/38/Bob_McKenzie_at_Winter_Olympics.jpg


Brian Lawton
I am hearing that it is not likely that Ryan Miller will be traded by the Deadline and Sabres are turning attention towards re signing him.

axlsalinger
02-24-2014, 10:17 PM
Have they started their live coverage yet?

Rumpleforeskin
02-24-2014, 10:19 PM
Started last week I think

Metalleaf
02-24-2014, 10:19 PM
Well its all we'll hear about for the next week and then 12 hours of them sitting at a desk next Wednesday.

Volcanologist
02-24-2014, 10:34 PM
Trade deadlines have been horrible the past few years.

I think the Leafs will make at least one move though.

Metalleaf
02-24-2014, 10:36 PM
What will happen is what always happens, most of the big trades will happen before Wednesday and we'll get a few small trades and James Duthie telling shitty anecdotes...

MyNameIsJonas
02-24-2014, 10:54 PM
Every year after the trade deadline i tell myself...im not waking up for that shit the next year...yet i always do

trujaysfan
02-24-2014, 10:55 PM
I'm honestly surprised nothing happened today in terms of trades... the GM's have had 2 weeks to talk and facilitate movement but nothing so far.

Metalleaf
02-24-2014, 10:56 PM
I have a 1 hour class in the morning and then the rest of the day off, so yeah I'll have it on.

Preston_Mizzi
02-25-2014, 12:33 AM
Leafs have no flexibility to make a move. I doubt we do much, if anything.

Metalleaf
02-25-2014, 12:36 AM
They may have to with all the bodies coming back, won't be surprised if Franson's moved out...it will be interesting.

Preston_Mizzi
02-25-2014, 12:53 AM
I think they'll just squeeze under the cap with Bolland coming back and Smith coming off the LTIR in the next couple days. It's tight, but doable.

MindzEye
02-25-2014, 02:15 AM
Biggest type of move I see as having any sort of potential is a Franson + salary filler (expiring or otherwise...so think a few bodies like Orr, Smith, etc) for a ~3.5-4 million dollar defender to solidify the blueline.

A sneaky, sneak alternative move though would be to liberate Tom Gilbert from Florida. Only makes 900K, impending UFA. Also right handed. Would allow us to flip Franson for a similar salaried winger if there was a willing partner somewhere in the league, wouldn't have to be dealing with a "seller" necessarily at that point either, just anyone who wants a youngish, intriguing defender.

BeLeafer
02-25-2014, 06:54 AM
It's hard to see the Leafs making anything but a minor deal or two. Gleason may well have been their move ... and a damned good one, of course.

leafman101
02-25-2014, 07:16 AM
The success of the Gleason trade might encourage them to pick up another cheap vet.

MyNameIsJonas
02-25-2014, 09:02 AM
Alot of teams have cap issues, hard to see a ton of activity.

Hoss
02-25-2014, 09:38 AM
Someone asked on a radio station if Komorov has an out in his KHL contract, and could he play here this year. Dreger didn't know and couldn't answer but I was wondering if anyone here knew? Is he a complete UFA or is he still property of the leafs before this year.

I know that he'd have to be brought over by the deadline but could they offer him a cheap contract to see if wants to play fourth line minutes for a playoff team. I think with the amount of games coming up, we need to have four lines rolling a bit more and having a fourth line of Mclement, Komorov and Ashton/Damigo/Mclaren/Orr wouldn't be to bad to have out for 10 minutes a game.

leafman101
02-25-2014, 09:44 AM
No cap room to sign him even if it were possible, which I doubt.

BG
02-25-2014, 10:06 AM
I'm pretty sure if the Leafs convinced Komarov to return this season that he'd have to clear waivers.

Killer93
02-25-2014, 10:09 AM
I'm surprised the live coverage show isn't on yet

LeafGm
02-25-2014, 10:44 AM
I will be shocked if the Leafs do anything of note. And I'd be perfectly fine with them not making any moves at the deadline as well.

JackBurton
02-25-2014, 12:49 PM
Yeah, this is one year I see them doing nothing. If they make a move, it'll be a minor depth move.

Pronger84
02-25-2014, 01:58 PM
I don't see the Leafs doing anything at the deadline, the Leafs are in a solid playoff spot and are fighting for 2nd spot in their divison. Nonis is a smart guy I don't see him trading any major pieces, he's not going to anything to harm the playoff chances.

If anything maybe a minor deal (a guy like Ranger or an AHL player) to make room for Bolland to return, but other then that I think it'll be very quiet on the Leafs end. I do believe Franson is a goner in the offseason though, I would not be shocked to see Nonis deal him on draft day though in an attempt to move up in the draft position.

Volcanologist
02-25-2014, 02:29 PM
Bolland's an interesting situation.

I wouldn't mind keeping him, but he could want a lot of money to stay.

leafman101
02-25-2014, 02:30 PM
TSN said he wanted $4.5-5 mill if not more.

If that is the case we're fine without him. Bozak money max. And even that is probably an overpayment considering he is a third line center here, but centers cost a premium.

Pronger84
02-25-2014, 02:36 PM
TSN said he wanted $4.5-5 mill if not more.

If that is the case we're fine without him. Bozak money max. And even that is probably an overpayment considering he is a third line center here, but centers cost a premium.

Yea just..... no he's not worth anywhere near that price, not once has he cracked 20g/50pts and I know he's a really good shutdown centre who is clutch in the playoffs but that doesn't mean he's worth what he's asking for. Also another big dent is his horrible injury he suffered last season, there is no gurantee he even gets back to the player he was in 2010 or even the player that was solid before going down last season. If I'm Nonis at this point I don't over him anything more then a 1 year contract/$3.25M contract, if he shows he can get back to his previous form then I'd offer him a 4 year deal/15M deal ($3.75M/per) with a limited NTC.

Volcanologist
02-25-2014, 02:36 PM
yeah, the Leafs haven't had him all season, but they'd be a better team with him especially in the postseason where he's money. We're pretty much about speed goaltending and powerplay, Bolland would help at even strength and PK where we range between average and terrible.

on the other hand, he's injury prone and isn't a good faceoff man, and locking up another non-top centre to largish money would be a bad idea.

maybe we could squeeze a 1st round pick out of somebody at the deadline. when's the last time the Leafs traded FOR a 1st rounder??

JaysCyYoung
02-25-2014, 02:43 PM
yeah, the Leafs haven't had him all season, but they'd be a better team with him especially in the postseason where he's money. We're pretty much about speed goaltending and powerplay, Bolland would help at even strength and PK where we range between average and terrible.

on the other hand, he's injury prone and isn't a good faceoff man, and locking up another non-top centre to largish money would be a bad idea.

maybe we could squeeze a 1st round pick out of somebody at the deadline. when's the last time the Leafs traded FOR a 1st rounder??

2011 when they received a first rounder (and a third) for Versteeg and a first rounder from Boston in the Kaberle deal.

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 02:45 PM
But if Bolland's such an attractive piece for the playoffs that other top teams are willing to give up a first to obtain him, why aren't we just using him for the playoffs?

leafman101
02-25-2014, 02:54 PM
Yeah, given the way the Leafs have drafted in the 20s range lately I'll keep Bolland.

LeafOfFaith
02-25-2014, 02:54 PM
If we wouldn't get a mid-1st, then just keep him and evaluate things later.

Volcanologist
02-25-2014, 02:55 PM
or with 2 picks we could move up in the draft if there's somebody the Leafs like this year.

zeke
02-25-2014, 02:58 PM
Consider Bolland our trade deadline upgrade, and that late draft pick that we might be able to get for him being the cost of that trade deadline upgrade.

MyNameIsJonas
02-25-2014, 03:05 PM
Consider Bolland our trade deadline upgrade, and that late draft pick that we might be able to get for him being the cost of that trade deadline upgrade.

Sometimes you say smart things.

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 03:17 PM
Consider Bolland our trade deadline upgrade, and that late draft pick that we might be able to get for him being the cost of that trade deadline upgrade.

+1.

Exactly.

LeafGm
02-25-2014, 04:14 PM
Consider Bolland our trade deadline upgrade, and that late draft pick that we might be able to get for him being the cost of that trade deadline upgrade.
Yep. And you can extend that sentiment to any of our other pending UFA's.

This isn't a non-playoff rebuilding team. I'm much more interested in seeing our full roster compete in the playoffs than I am in picking up a couple of extra draft picks.

In the case of Bolland, seeing him compete for us in the playoffs will also give us a much clearer picture of what his value is, and if he's worth re-signing.

Volcanologist
02-25-2014, 04:32 PM
Consider Bolland our trade deadline upgrade, and that late draft pick that we might be able to get for him being the cost of that trade deadline upgrade.

well that plus what we gave up already to get him, if he walks.

There's pros and cons to both sides of this. He'd be a good player to have, but not at 5 million.

Habsy
02-25-2014, 04:32 PM
or with 2 picks we could move up in the draft if there's somebody the Leafs like this year.

Moving up in this year's draft is unlikely as it is not a good draft. After the top 6-7 players it's pretty much garbage. There may be a diamond there somewhere but who knows.

Habsy
02-25-2014, 04:33 PM
Bolland is a heck of a hockey player but $5m per is a stretch.

zeke
02-25-2014, 04:36 PM
He's been a pretty consistent 20gl/40pt type guy in his career and in recent years. I doubt he can ask for $5m, though I guess with the cap going up all prices might be inflated.

Personally I don't feel a burning desire to keep him (though let's see what he does the rest of the way), especially with Kulemin looking so good at C (and likely available for much cheaper), not to mention Holland/McKegg/Verhaeghe/Gauthier starting to give us a decent looking pipeline of C talent.

But I definitely don't want to trade him, either. I want to see what this team can do.

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 04:38 PM
well that plus what we gave up already to get him, if he walks.

There's pros and cons to both sides of this. He'd be a good player to have, but not at 5 million.

I don't think Zeke's even advocating resigning him for that amount though. Just that many teams would probably gladly take him as purely a rental, why not us?

Volcanologist
02-25-2014, 04:38 PM
Moving up in this year's draft is unlikely as it is not a good draft. After the top 6-7 players it's pretty much garbage. There may be a diamond there somewhere but who knows.

I've heard that said about a lot of drafts.

but you know what, our two biggest rivals have young Norris trophy winners on their bluelines, something we don't have. and where were those two players drafted?

Habsy
02-25-2014, 04:40 PM
Where do you eventually see Gauthier settling in?

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 04:40 PM
If we're gonna trade a useful playoff piece for a mid to late first, please, please, please... no more Biggs/Gauthier type picks.

Habsy
02-25-2014, 04:41 PM
If Bolland gets traded they should ask for a 2015 first.

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 04:43 PM
Where do you eventually see Gauthier settling in?

This isn't gonna be a popular opinion but 4th line C to bust.

LeafGm
02-25-2014, 04:43 PM
I've heard that said about a lot of drafts.

but you know what, our two biggest rivals have young Norris trophy winners on their bluelines, something we don't have. and where were those two players drafted?
So, we should just gut our roster depth for mid-level draft picks and not worry about the playoffs?

Volcanologist
02-25-2014, 04:44 PM
So, we should just gut our roster depth for mid-level draft picks and not worry about the playoffs?

what?

Habsy
02-25-2014, 04:46 PM
This isn't gonna be a popular opinion but 4th line C to bust.

I dunno about bust but yeah, checking line center is where I see him too.

UWHabs
02-25-2014, 04:46 PM
It's like the Habs with Markov - there's 3 options:
1. Trade him
2. Re-sign him
3. Keep him and let him walk.

For Bolland, the questions become - how much does he want? What return would you get? If he's willing to come back for 3-4M, you re-sign him and be glad about it. If he wants 5M, then your options are weighting the return you would get for him, vs. what it helps you to keep him around. And with him just coming back from injury, unless if someone offers the moon for him, it likely makes the most sense to just keep him and take your chances in the off-season.

Habsy
02-25-2014, 04:47 PM
I've heard that said about a lot of drafts.

but you know what, our two biggest rivals have young Norris trophy winners on their bluelines, something we don't have. and where were those two players drafted?

True, you do have Rielly improving though.

The Leafs problem is Ballard. I think an exorcism is required.

MindzEye
02-25-2014, 04:47 PM
Where do you eventually see Gauthier settling in?

Nasty, hard to play against 3C with the offensive potential to be a 50 point 2C in the same mold.

Habsy
02-25-2014, 04:47 PM
It's like the Habs with Markov - there's 3 options:
1. Trade him
2. Re-sign him
3. Keep him and let him walk.

For Bolland, the questions become - how much does he want? What return would you get? If he's willing to come back for 3-4M, you re-sign him and be glad about it. If he wants 5M, then your options are weighting the return you would get for him, vs. what it helps you to keep him around. And with him just coming back from injury, unless if someone offers the moon for him, it likely makes the most sense to just keep him and take your chances in the off-season.

I maintain the Habs would be stupid to let Markov walk. He's still a great second pairing D-man.

Habsy
02-25-2014, 04:48 PM
Nasty, hard to play against 3C with the offensive potential to be a 50 point 2C in the same mold.

I don't see it.

He's big and all but I'd take Bolland over him.

zeke
02-25-2014, 04:51 PM
not ready to dismiss Gauthier's 2nd line upside quite yet, but no doubt he's having a bad year. interesting thing is that if you like the corsis, his shots are way up this year, but his goals are down.

we'll see what happens, but him getting worse offensively from his draft year to his post-draft year is kind of weird.

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 04:56 PM
I don't think the numbers support a second line upside whatsoever...

Volcanologist
02-25-2014, 04:57 PM
It's more than kind of weird, it's bloody disappointing.

another Leaf 1st round pick up in smoke. that kid will be lucky to make it as a 10-12th forward with that skill level.

mbow30
02-25-2014, 05:03 PM
thing is, his less talented linemates have also seen some pretty marked declines in production. maybe something's up, or he's hurt. it would be one thing if his production just stagnated, but for a marked decline (especially in goals) -- that's strange.

leafman101
02-25-2014, 05:21 PM
His production really isn't down very much. 79 point pace last year vs 71 point pace this year.

Pretty disappointing.

MindzEye
02-25-2014, 06:37 PM
I don't think the numbers support a second line upside whatsoever...

With all due respect, I think you're making two pretty glaring mistakes here

1) Over rating what "2nd line" production is.
2) Due to #1, over rating the pedigree of the players who fill those roles in the NHL

2nd line level production is typically between 35-50 points in any given season. There's quite a few players in the NHL with that type of CHL offensive profile who have gone on to slot into 2nd line roles in the NHL. Off the top of my head, Versteeg, or a more apt comparison, Brouwer, weren't CHL studs. Don't get me wrong, it's not encouraging to see his scoring drop this season but his production levels are hardly at disaster levels.

I know you hated the Biggs selection from the onset, and I think you're letting that colour your opinion of Gauthier, who wasn't at all a similar pick. There's something to remember here, that at 17, Gauthier produced at a higher rate than Biggs did as a 19 yr old.

Gauthier is also a kid who has some extenuating circumstances attached to him. Huge and not quite grown into his frame yet, but still a plus skater, with a plus release. All the tools are there for him to be better as a pro, than he has been in the CHL this season.

Gauthier was always a bit of a home run swing (you know, the type of prospects most of us demand that we draft over safe crap like Biggs). He's a massive centre with plus skating, but incredibly raw without a lot of CHL experience prior to our drafting him. He was always going to be a bit of a project due to his size. It was going to take him more time to learn how to use that 6'5.

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 06:44 PM
With all due respect, I think you're making two pretty glaring mistakes here

1) Over rating what "2nd line" production is.
2) Due to #1, over rating the pedigree of the players who fill those roles in the NHL

2nd line level production is typically between 35-50 points in any given season. There's quite a few players in the NHL with that type of CHL offensive profile who have gone on to slot into 2nd line roles in the NHL. Off the top of my head, Versteeg, or a more apt comparison, Brouwer, weren't CHL studs. Don't get me wrong, it's not encouraging to see his scoring drop this season but his production levels are hardly at disaster levels.

I know you hated the Biggs selection from the onset, and I think you're letting that colour your opinion of Gauthier, who wasn't at all a similar pick. There's something to remember here, that at 17, Gauthier produced at a higher rate than Biggs did as a 19 yr old.

Gauthier is also a kid who has some extenuating circumstances attached to him. Huge and not quite grown into his frame yet, but still a plus skater, with a plus release. All the tools are there for him to be better as a pro, than he has been in the CHL this season.

I don't think I'm overrating what 2nd line production is at all - but you specified 50 points here, not me.

Earlier in the season, a few Habs fans asked me to look up how many players that were on pace for 50 pts or more this season hit either a PPG or 1.2 PPG in their CHL post-draft year. Almost all of them did, with few exceptions.

Then they asked me to do it for all the players that were on pace for 40+ points this year. Same result.

Then I did for for all of the players that were on pace for 30+ points this year. Again, almost all of them were able to hit at least a PPG and most even hit your 1.2 ppg. There were certainly a few exceptions. But geez, 30 point pace is setting the bar awfully low and most of those players even did it. It wasn't encouraging.

Of course, the player in question for them was McCarron who's only at a 42 point pace in the OHL in his post-draft year. Not a 71 point pace like Gauthier. At least he's closer.

number17
02-25-2014, 06:47 PM
The Leaf won't and shouldn't trade Bolland ... we traded for Bolland for the playoff, why not just 'rent' him for the playoff, see what he can do in the playoff, then determine our next step in the summer?

We can't keep stocking up on the future forever ... instead of a mid or late 1st, Bolland might exactly be the 'veteran' this team needs to take it to the next step.

MindzEye
02-25-2014, 06:52 PM
I don't think I'm overrating what 2nd line production is at all - but you specified 50 points here, not me.

Which of course, the high end of 2nd line production.


Earlier in the season, a few Habs fans asked me to look up how many players that were on pace for 50 pts or more this season hit either a PPG or 1.2 PPG in their CHL post-draft year. Almost all of them did, with few exceptions.

Then they asked me to do it for all the players that were on pace for 40+ points this year. Same result.

Surely if we were looking for exceptions, it would be for players who hit that mark a year earlier, no? I mean, you're not exactly playing with a large data set here, just from a quick glimpse at this year's list that would apply, there's a number of "exceptions". We're not talking anything remotely like 2 exceptions over the course of 12 seasons of data. We're talking about 2 easily found exceptions in 60 games of data.


Then I did for for all of the players that were on pace for 30+ points this year. Again, almost all of them were able to hit at least a PPG and most even hit your 1.2 ppg. There were certainly a few exceptions. But geez, 30 point pace is setting the bar awfully low and most of those players even did it. It wasn't encouraging.

Fair enough...but again, if we're looking for exceptions to a pretty loose analysis surely it's a 6'5 kid who was ppg as a 17 yr old, no? No offence, but that's a bit of a horseshit analysis to be drawing the type of conclusions you are.

I'll do a bit of work on this over the next few days.

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 07:56 PM
I looked up 112 players who were out of the OHL and on pace for 30+ points this year. 99 of them scored over a PPG in either their draft year or post-draft year and most of them were over 1.2 PPG. So yeah, it does concern me that Gauthier's only at a 71 point pace this year.

I'm not really sure if he has the offensive upside to be a 50 point 2nd line C as you implied earlier. If I had to put money on it, I think I'd say no. I'm not sure I'd put money on him being even a lower end second line center to be honest...

I don't think Biggs is clouding my judgment. I pointed out in the prospects thread all last year that Gauthier is significantly better than Biggs and I also pointed out, like you said, that he scored more in his draft year than Biggs did in his second post-draft year. But I'm disappointed in a 71 point pace this year for Gauthier.

Preston_Mizzi
02-25-2014, 08:01 PM
The Gauthier pick was definitely a high upside pick. There's a chance it may not work out, but I do like the chance they took. They should always make that kind of pick late in 1st rounds. Wish they were able to get Mantha, but I don't mind the intent of the pick. Now the second part is how well they scouted this player. At the moment it's not looking good, but it's still early. The idea was right.. the jury is still out on the execution.

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 08:07 PM
The Gauthier pick was definitely a high upside pick. There's a chance it may not work out, but I do like the chance they took. They should always make that kind of pick late in 1st rounds. Wish they were able to get Mantha, but I don't mind the intent of the pick. Now the second part is how well they scouted this player. At the moment it's not looking good, but it's still early. The idea was right.. the jury is still out on the execution.

High upside pick? What do you mean? Nonis said at the time they drafted him that they thought he'd likely be a third liner. That's not really high upside...

Preston_Mizzi
02-25-2014, 08:20 PM
6'5 center that was ppg in his rookie year? Yeah, I'll take that all day at 21.

MindzEye
02-25-2014, 11:14 PM
High upside pick? What do you mean? Nonis said at the time they drafted him that they thought he'd likely be a third liner. That's not really high upside...

At the time of the draft, there were only a handful of prospects taken in that range of the draft (next 10-15 picks) who had the statistical track record (or better) that Gauthier had.

Emile Poirier LW Decemeber 6'1 180 - 1.07ppg
Hunter Shinkaruk C October 5'10 180 - 1.34ppg
Shea Theodore D August 6'2 180 - .70ppg
Morgan Klimchuk LW March 5'11 180 - 1.05ppg
Adam Erne LW April 6'1 210 - 1.06ppg
Fred Gauthier C April 6'5 215 - .97 ppg

The obvious stats selection there is probably the worst pick of the bunch with questionable size and without the elite skating that can make up for it in smaller players. Others in that group have had better seasons that Gauthier had, but at the time it's a bit hard to argue that a 6'5 215 pound plus skater, who was the only CHL rookie of the bunch, that finished the season on an offensive tear, was in any way a step down from the rest for offensive potential.

zeke
02-25-2014, 11:21 PM
Issue here might be that it looks like gauthier is not on the top PP unit.

Which is a negative in itself, but still might explain his lack of production.

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 11:28 PM
You can argue til you're blue in the face about Gauthier being a good pick given what we have available, having second line potential (I wouldn't bet on it but I hope so) etc. That's fine.

But come on, it wasn't a "high upside pick". It's not a high upside first round pick to project as a third liner and that's what Nonis himself thought he'd be.

Volcanologist
02-25-2014, 11:33 PM
It's not even that they thought he was going to be a scorer. They knowingly picked a guy who they didn't think had much shot of being a top 6 player with a 1st round selection.

you can't ever do that. ever.

hockeylover
02-25-2014, 11:33 PM
Issue here might be that it looks like gauthier is not on the top PP unit.

Which is a negative in itself, but still might explain his lack of production.

Gauthier is the only forward on the Oceanic that has been drafted, correct?

MyNameIsJonas
02-25-2014, 11:35 PM
Gauthier is the only forward on the Oceanic that has been drafted, correct?

that can't be good that he gets no PP time.

BeLeafer
02-26-2014, 07:18 AM
Bob Gainey was selected 8th overall.

Cojo
02-26-2014, 07:57 AM
I dont understand why you'd ever pick someone in the 1st round if you are projecting him to be a third liner.

Can you not get third liners on the cheap yearly via free agency?

Why would we knowingly blow one of our main assets each year on that.

Its not to say he can't turn out better, but like HL said, if Nonis knowingly thought thats what he projects to be it seems like a silly 1st round selection. Shoot for the moon and hope for a gem. If it falls, its only paper to buy a 3rd liner 4 years from now.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 08:47 AM
If Gauthier can't play the PP as a post draft junior he will likely never be a PP guy at the NHL level. Which is a problem if you have hopes of him being a 2nd line center, with 2nd line production.

If he is some great defensive center, like Guastad there can still be value there. But it looks like they picked him because he is 6'5 and a center. Not because of some high end offensive ability.

zeke
02-26-2014, 10:01 AM
Let's not rewrite history.

Leafs scouts were crystal clear that they saw two-way 3rd line C as his reasonable floor, with 2nd line centre a good possibility. They used Hanzal as a direct comparison.

And based on his PPG production in his draft year (as a rookie no less), they were well justified in believing that.

His performance last year most definitely indicated 2nd line upside (maybe more, considering his inexperience and size and development curve).

His performance this year has been a dissappointment, but let's remember we're talking about 45gms here, in his 2nd year in junior. we've also got some interesting statistical issues that need to be considered - his shots are way up but his shooting percentage has been cut almost in half, and he doesn't seem to be on the top PP unit.

We have every reason to be disappointed in his production, but writing him off this quickly is not justified.

zeke
02-26-2014, 10:01 AM
Gauthier is the only forward on the Oceanic that has been drafted, correct?

Yes, they have a number of skilled midgets who are scoring well but will likely never be drafted.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 10:14 AM
Jonas Siegel
Dave Nonis says Gauthier projects as a second, but more likely, third-line centre.


``He's big,'' Toronto GM Dave Nonis said when asked about his first-round pick. ``He's a big man.''
...

Dave Morrison:

“I put him more as a two-way guy, but certainly he’s very, very good in his own zone. He’s responsible, he’s good on faceoffs. I would say he’s got a developing offensive game. His totals are good for a first year guy in the league. I thought in the tournament he came up with some pretty big plays at big times. We’re hopeful he can develop that part of his game, but yeah we like his size, we like his all-around game.

...

With Frederik Gauthier, we feel pretty comfortable with his potential as a third-line center. Could he better than that? Yeah, I think he could. But I don’t think at this point you could project him better than that. I think he’s going to be a really strong two-way player that is going to help your team win. I think he’s going to be one of these guys that down the stretch, playoff time, big situations, when you really need two-way strength – he’s going to be a player that really helps us down the road in that regard.

I think if you watch the playoffs and toward the end of the season, there is a type of player that starts to look a little more important and a little more valuable. I feel like Frederik will be one of those guys. I don’t think he’s going to be a flashy guy. He’s got a different type of skill set than a guy like Nazem Kadri. I think, in saying that, I still feel like Frederik has some offensive upside. But I wouldn’t ever say he’s going to be a guy like Nazem Kadri – he’s not. Frederick is going to be that strong two-way guy that will help you win hockey games.


They thought he had some untapped offensive potential. But they picked him because he was a big defensive center, with some offensive upside. Not because he had offensive upside.

This was a guy that was picked to be a 3rd line center... maybe better.

UWHabs
02-26-2014, 10:20 AM
I dont understand why you'd ever pick someone in the 1st round if you are projecting him to be a third liner.

Can you not get third liners on the cheap yearly via free agency?

Why would we knowingly blow one of our main assets each year on that.

Its not to say he can't turn out better, but like HL said, if Nonis knowingly thought thats what he projects to be it seems like a silly 1st round selection. Shoot for the moon and hope for a gem. If it falls, its only paper to buy a 3rd liner 4 years from now.

I'd pick a 6'5 checking centre who projects to be a solid 3rd line/potential 2nd line player late in the first round. But you have to:
1. be damn sure his worst case (absolute worst case) is that of an NHL 4th liner. There should be no doubt at all that he's an NHL player.
2. Be sure that he has the offensive upside to progress further.

That's why you don't pick a guy like Chipchura in the first round. Sure, he basically fits point 1, but he failed point 2. Gauthier looks like a slightly better version of Chipchura, but is still a bit questionable for point 2.

worm
02-26-2014, 10:53 AM
I don't think I'm overrating what 2nd line production is at all - but you specified 50 points here, not me.

Earlier in the season, a few Habs fans asked me to look up how many players that were on pace for 50 pts or more this season hit either a PPG or 1.2 PPG in their CHL post-draft year. Almost all of them did, with few exceptions.

Then they asked me to do it for all the players that were on pace for 40+ points this year. Same result.

Then I did for for all of the players that were on pace for 30+ points this year. Again, almost all of them were able to hit at least a PPG and most even hit your 1.2 ppg. There were certainly a few exceptions. But geez, 30 point pace is setting the bar awfully low and most of those players even did it. It wasn't encouraging.

Of course, the player in question for them was McCarron who's only at a 42 point pace in the OHL in his post-draft year. Not a 71 point pace like Gauthier. At least he's closer.

And that still didnt convince some of them.

Ugh.

worm
02-26-2014, 10:58 AM
Bob Gainey was selected 8th overall.

5th highest scorer in that draft

only 1 of those drafted after him

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 11:34 AM
With Frederik Gauthier, we feel pretty comfortable with his potential as a third-line center. Could he better than that? Yeah, I think he could. But I don’t think at this point you could project him better than that.

Thanks for digging up that article, Leafman. Thought I recalled Nonis saying he didn't think 2nd line was all that likely.

zeke
02-26-2014, 12:35 PM
He clearly says he feels comfortable with his floor as a 3rd line C, but with potential 2nd line C offense there as well. He uses Hanzal and J.Staal as his two direct comparisons.

Claiming that they didn't see realistic 2nd line upside in him is silly, especially since his PPG production in his draft year (as a rookie too) indicated that kind of potential as well.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 12:43 PM
No one is saying they didn't see some potential upside there. That just isn't why they drafted him. (he said Staal with less offense btw).

They drafted him as a big, defenisve 3rd line center... with maybe some upside. And obviously the issue is that upside hasn't materialized in a pretty important development year for prospects.

As for "realistic" Morrison blatantly said they cant project him better than a 3rd line center at that point (in June). Not sure why we should be putting greater expectations on the guy than the Leafs are. His play certainly hasn't warranted it.

zeke
02-26-2014, 12:53 PM
So he talks clearly about his offensive upside, which was supported entirely by his offensive production, compares him to Hanzal and Staal, and you're saying that's not a big part of why he was drafted?

don't be daft.

worm
02-26-2014, 12:55 PM
why you talking about where he should be drafted?

i thought the convo was about where he projects now?

leafman101
02-26-2014, 01:00 PM
So he talks clearly about his offensive upside, which was supported entirely by his offensive production, compares him to Hanzal and Staal, and you're saying that's not a big part of why he was drafted?

don't be daft.

Well first of all Jordan Staal with less offense...whcih isn't all that impressive from an offensive persepctive.

More importantly, no it wasn't. The big reason why he was drafted was he was a 6'5 center that they project as a 3rd line guy that is tough to play against.. They blatantly say they project him as a 3rd line guy... with maybe some upside.

They seemed pretty damn confident with what he can be as a checking line center, and that is what they were raving about him. Its only daft to ignore what they are saying, his production, and what he is as a player in the hopes of something that has not shown up.

zeke
02-26-2014, 01:15 PM
daft.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 01:17 PM
"With Frederik Gauthier, we feel pretty comfortable with his potential as a third-line center. Could he better than that? Yeah, I think he could. But I don’t think at this point you could project him better than that."

#bigreason

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 01:24 PM
Not really sure why there's an argument here. The people that drafted him are saying they don't think he projects as better than a third-line center.

zeke
02-26-2014, 01:26 PM
Yes they are. christ. read the words they say.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 01:26 PM
His performance this year has been a dissappointment, but let's remember we're talking about 45gms here, in his 2nd year in junior. we've also got some interesting statistical issues that need to be considered - his shots are way up but his shooting percentage has been cut almost in half, and he doesn't seem to be on the top PP unit.

This is just really worrisome to me. He's appears to be the only legit NHL forward prospect on that team.

Killer93
02-26-2014, 01:27 PM
This deadline could get interesting with St. Louis, Vanek, and Miller looking like there out the door

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 01:27 PM
Yes they are. christ. read the words they say.

"With Frederik Gauthier, we feel pretty comfortable with his potential as a third-line center. Could he better than that? Yeah, I think he could. But I don’t think at this point you could project him better than that."

... are they speaking in code or something? Sorry, zeke, I don't see it.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 01:27 PM
The words: "We project him as a 3rd liner...could he be better than that? Sure, he could, but we don't think he will be at the moment"

zeke
02-26-2014, 01:30 PM
keep removing words to hone it down to what you want it to say.

JaysCyYoung
02-26-2014, 01:35 PM
Yeah I don't understand how anyone could read that statement and come to the conclusion that the Leafs brass viewed Gauthier as a top two centre.

They clearly see him as a checking role type guy. He hypothetically could be more than that, but any player could too if you look at it in a theoretical sense. Prospects are hard to gauge by nature.

Metalleaf
02-26-2014, 01:36 PM
What happened to the trade deadline thread?

leafman101
02-26-2014, 01:36 PM
"...at this point I don't think you can project him better than that". #noedits

worm
02-26-2014, 01:37 PM
Yeah I don't understand how anyone could read that statement and come to the conclusion that the Leafs brass viewed Gauthier as a top two centre.

They clearly see him as a checking role type guy. He hypothetically could be more than that, but any player could too if you look at it in a theoretical sense. Prospects are hard to gauge by nature.

Factor in that teams normally oversell to the media/fans about draft picks, etc.

worm
02-26-2014, 01:37 PM
What happened to the trade deadline thread?

It died 3-4 years ago. Just like TSN Trade Deadline Day.

zeke
02-26-2014, 02:22 PM
"...at this point I don't think you can project him better than that". #noedits



"I think, in saying that, I still feel like Frederik has some offensive upside. But I wouldnít ever say heís going to be a guy like Nazem Kadri Ė heís not. Frederick is going to be that strong two-way guy that will help you win hockey games. Exactly, I think youíre not far off. I think thatís probably what youíre going to be looking at. That type of guy. Or a Martin Hanzal, another big guy down the middle. Maybe a Jordan Staal but perhaps not quite as developed offensively as Jordan. Itís hard to say at this point as Frederik has come such a long way. You have to remember that just a year ago he was playing basically midget AAA, and all of a sudden within a year he is almost a PPG in the QMJHL and helping Canada win a gold at the U18 tournament."

Not Kadri. Not quite Staal. More like Handzus.

#noedits

leafman101
02-26-2014, 02:24 PM
..maybe, but at this point I don't think you can project him as that.

No one is denying that they thought he might have some potential beyond that. You can't deny that isn't what they projected him as though. They said it isn't. No way around that.

Volcanologist
02-26-2014, 02:26 PM
"With Frederik Gauthier, we feel pretty comfortable with his potential as a third-line center. Could he better than that? Yeah, I think he could. But I donít think at this point you could project him better than that."

#bigreason

Ugh. Truculence!!!!1!

zeke
02-26-2014, 02:27 PM
..maybe, but at this point I don't think you can project him as that.

No one is denying that they thought he might have some potential beyond that. You can't deny that isn't what they projected him as. They say it isn't.

"I still feel like Frederik has some offensive upside"

#noedits

Killer93
02-26-2014, 02:27 PM
I propose Clarkson for St Louis straight up

leafman101
02-26-2014, 02:28 PM
"I still feel like Frederik has some offensive upside"

#noedits

"...at this point I don't think you can project him better than that". #noedits

zeke
02-26-2014, 02:30 PM
"but I'm gonna mention his offensive upside anyways"

#impliededit

leafman101
02-26-2014, 02:30 PM
And for the record Handzus was a 40 point center. "Maybe" he has that kind of offensive upside." #Bigreasontheydraftedhim

JaysCyYoung
02-26-2014, 02:31 PM
Hanzal kind of sucks offensively too. Not sure how comparing Gauthier to him in any way implies a high-end offensive upside.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 02:32 PM
"but I'm gonna mention his offensive upside anyways"

#impliededit

No one ever denied they hoped there was some offensive upside.

They also projected him as a 3rd line center from day one. People only seem to be denying that for some reason.

zeke
02-26-2014, 02:37 PM
Hanzal kind of sucks offensively too. Not sure how comparing Gauthier to him in any way implies a high-end offensive upside.

hanzal paces:

20: 40pts
21: 34pts
22: 33pts
23: 35pts
24: 44pts
25: 48pts
26: 57pts

zeke
02-26-2014, 02:38 PM
No one ever denied they hoped there was some offensive upside.

They also projected him as a 3rd line center from day one. People only seem to be denying that for some reason.

"we hope we're drafting the next Hanzal here"

#edit

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 02:40 PM
What's your projection for Gauthier then zeke? What type of player do you think he'll turn into?

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 02:42 PM
"...at this point I don't think you can project him better than that". #noedits

Note that "at this point" was even right after that strong draft year.

Then he followed it up with what to this point has been a shitty season.

JaysCyYoung
02-26-2014, 02:43 PM
hanzal paces:

20: 40pts
21: 34pts
22: 33pts
23: 35pts
24: 44pts
25: 48pts
26: 57pts

He has fewer 40 point seasons than David Clarkson.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 02:44 PM
Note that "at this point" was even right after that strong draft year.

Then he followed it up with what to this point has been a shitty season.

Well yeah, thats the salient point. Their projections certainly haven't improved this year.

zeke
02-26-2014, 02:57 PM
He has fewer 40 point seasons than David Clarkson.

If you wouldn't be happy with Martin Hanzal with a 21st overall pick, you're crazy.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 02:59 PM
I would be thrilled with Hanzal. Of course he scored 80 points in his only CHL year. He was a year older than Gauthier is now, so we'll have to see but not looking good at this point.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 03:02 PM
At the time of the draft, there were only a handful of prospects taken in that range of the draft (next 10-15 picks) who had the statistical track record (or better) that Gauthier had.

Emile Poirier LW Decemeber 6'1 180 - 1.07ppg 1.43ppg
Hunter Shinkaruk C October 5'10 180 - 1.34ppg0.89ppg
Shea Theodore D August 6'2 180 - .70ppg 1.13ppg
Morgan Klimchuk LW March 5'11 180 - 1.05ppg 1.35ppg
Adam Erne LW April 6'1 210 - 1.06ppg 1.29ppg
Fred Gauthier C April 6'5 215 - .97 ppg 0.87ppg

The obvious stats selection there is probably the worst pick of the bunch with questionable size and without the elite skating that can make up for it in smaller players. Others in that group have had better seasons that Gauthier had, but at the time it's a bit hard to argue that a 6'5 215 pound plus skater, who was the only CHL rookie of the bunch, that finished the season on an offensive tear, was in any way a step down from the rest for offensive potential.

Unfortunately they're all looking better this year except Shinkaruk who tried to play through that torn hip labrum.

JaysCyYoung
02-26-2014, 03:16 PM
If you wouldn't be happy with Martin Hanzal with a 21st overall pick, you're crazy.

I'd be ecstatic to get a Martin Hanzal at 21. Frederik Gauthier is no Martin Hanzal.

And Martin Hanzel isn't a stud either.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 04:50 PM
Fun fact: Martin Hanzal was barely a PPG player in the USHL at the same age Gauthier is now. Hanzel had a really impressive 19 yr old season in the WHL though, so I guess I'll start getting worried about Gauthier not living up to the Hanzal comparison if he's not ~1.3 ppg next season.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 05:01 PM
Pretty convenient that the guy who discovered the 1.2 ppg post draft year doesn't give a **** about that rule in this instance.

Preston_Mizzi
02-26-2014, 05:02 PM
6'5 center that scored at PPG in his rookie year. Project him as a 3rd line center, possibly more.

What the hell are you guys looking for with the 21st pick?

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 05:03 PM
Pretty convenient that the guy who discovered the 1.2 ppg post draft year doesn't give a **** about that rule in this instance.

When did I say that Gauthier would be a 30+ goal/60+ point scorer?

leafman101
02-26-2014, 05:04 PM
Not saying he was a bad pick. Just saying he was always a projected 3rd liner. And that he is having a really disappointing season.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 05:04 PM
When did I say that Gauthier would be a 30+ goal/60+ point scorer?

Well as HL pointed out, it might be a much lower mark than that.

Preston_Mizzi
02-26-2014, 05:06 PM
Not saying he was a bad pick. Just saying he was always a projected 3rd liner.

There's a reason players drop to the 20's in the 1st round. It's retarded for anyone to say a player picked that late is projected to be a 1st liner. Gauthier had as much of a chance at being a top six forward as anyone. It just so happens that his floor is better. That's where you guys are getting confused. High floor does not mean he doesn't have upside.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 05:07 PM
Well as HL pointed out, it might be a much lower mark than that.

She's more than welcome to work on a much, much more comprehensive data set than the one she discussed here.

MyNameIsJonas
02-26-2014, 05:08 PM
People are talking about this like it's a mistake made in the top 10....rarely do you see such a complete package taken in the 20's

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 05:10 PM
There's a reason players drop to the 20's in the 1st round. It's retarded for anyone to say a player picked that late is projected to be a 1st liner. Gauthier had as much of a chance at being a top six forward as anyone. It just so happens that his floor is better. That's where you guys are getting confused.

Yep...and though this is kind of the equivalent of pulling a godwin on the discussion, but as soon as I came across this "projection" talk, the first thought that jumped into my head was "I wonder what detroit projected 18 yr old Dastyuk & Zetterberg" to be.

Basically, I think you'd have a hard time finding too many clubs "projecting" any kid they got outside the top 10 with any sort of accuracy.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 05:11 PM
There's a reason players drop to the 20's in the 1st round. It's retarded for anyone to say a player picked that late is projected to be a 1st liner. Gauthier had as much of a chance at being a top six forward as anyone. It just so happens that his floor is better. That's where you guys are getting confused. High floor does not mean he doesn't have upside.

No. He's a low ceiling guy. Always was. Doesn't matter where he was picked, he was a 3rd line type of prospect. Not an offensive upside type of prospect. It is what it is.

Not every prospect picked in the 20s is a 6'5 defensive center.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 05:12 PM
People are talking about this like it's a mistake made in the top 10....rarely do you see such a complete package taken in the 20's

Yep..and when you're talking about a player who's going to be a bit of a project (as are most taken in that range...Percy is . 6'5 with plus skating and solid offensive skills, to go with a plus package of all the defensive skills you want out of a big centre, is the type of project you should like.

MyNameIsJonas
02-26-2014, 05:12 PM
People are talking about this like it's a mistake made in the top 10....rarely do you see such a complete package taken in the 20's

Man, if Jonas gets it...how aren't you getting it?

Preston_Mizzi
02-26-2014, 05:13 PM
No. He's a low ceiling guy. Always was. Doesn't matter where he was picked, he was a 3rd line type of prospect. Not an offensive upside type of prospect. It is what it is.

Not every prospect picked in the 20s is a 6'5 defensive center.
Yeah, I agree. Not every prospect picked in the 20s is a 6'5 center that scored at a ppg rate in his rookie year in the Q. Great value.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 05:13 PM
No. He's a low ceiling guy. Always was. Doesn't matter where he was picked, he was a 3rd line type of prospect. Not an offensive upside type of prospect. It is what it is.

Not every prospect picked in the 20s is a 6'5 defensive center.

For a defensive centre, he sure produced as at a similar rate pre draft to all of those offensive guys.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 05:14 PM
Yeah, I agree. Not every prospect picked in the 20s is a 6'5 center that scored at a ppg rate in his rookie year in the Q. Great value.

Value is irrelevant. I'm not complaining about the pick. I'm just pointing out that some peoples evaluations of it are off.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 05:15 PM
For a defensive centre, he sure produced as at a similar rate pre draft to all of those offensive guys.

But not in the more critical post draft year where the offensive guys historically separate themselves.

Preston_Mizzi
02-26-2014, 05:16 PM
The problem is people are interpreting the fact that he has a high floor as a negative. If he wasn't good defensively or had a complete game I think people would have been much happier, oddly enough. 6'5 center that can skate well and scored at a ppg in his rookie year? Sign me up! But he's good defensively so his floor is high, therefore we interpret it as a safe pick.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 05:18 PM
But not in the more critical post draft year where the offensive guys historically separate themselves.

We're about to argue in circles when I say that being a 40-50 point centre is still easily within his grasp, and you point to HL's fun with small data sets, and we rinse, then repeat. So I think this is enough key strokes on the matter personally.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 05:19 PM
The problem is people are interpreting the fact that he has a high floor as a negative. If he wasn't good defensively or had a complete game I think people would have been much happier, oddly enough. 6'5 center that can skate well and scored at a ppg in his rookie year? Sign me up! But he's good defensively so his floor is high, therefore we interpret it as a safe pick.

But thats not the problem. Thats not even something anyone is talking about. His floor isn't the issue here. People ignoring the Leafs staff explicitly labeling him a 3rd line guy is the issue and pretending like he wasn't selected for his size, position and defensive abilities.

Preston_Mizzi
02-26-2014, 05:21 PM
Am I missing something? Do people really think GM's project players as hall of famers with 21st overall picks?

Matrim
02-26-2014, 05:22 PM
But thats not the problem. Thats not even something anyone is talking about. His floor isn't the issue here. People ignoring the Leafs staff explicitly labeling him a 3rd line guy is the issue and pretending like he wasn't selected for his size, position and defensive abilities.

I'm sure the Leafs were just looking at it realistically. Saw a big centre who was already solid defensively but put up some decent numbers and figured it's worth a shot, he may only end up being a third line guy but who knows let's roll the dice.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 05:22 PM
Am I missing something? Do people really think GM's project players as hall of famers with 21st overall picks?

But they project players to be what they are i.e a defensive 3rd line center. And he has literally done nothing to suggest he is any more than that.

Preston_Mizzi
02-26-2014, 05:25 PM
But they project players to be what they are i.e a defensive 3rd line center. And he has literally done nothing to suggest he is any more than that.

Yeah, arguing in circles. The whole high floor thing is really messing with your brain. It's alright.

leafman101
02-26-2014, 05:26 PM
Its not even an argument. Its a bunch of blind hope being thrown around by people who would never do that with another prospect like this.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 05:26 PM
Well as HL pointed out, it might be a much lower mark than that.

You forgot my analysis is horseshit. :smilewinkgrin:

JaysCyYoung
02-26-2014, 05:28 PM
As a member of the anti-Biggs crowd that was vindicated, I put myself with hl and 101 in the realists regarding Gauthier.

JaysCyYoung
02-26-2014, 05:28 PM
Its not even an argument. Its a bunch of blind hope being thrown around by people who would never do that with another prospect like this.

If FG was a Sens prospect we would be rightfully mocking them for the selection instead of making a great pick in Lazar.

MyNameIsJonas
02-26-2014, 05:30 PM
You forgot my analysis is horseshit. :smilewinkgrin:

but you look cute giving said analysis.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 05:31 PM
She's more than welcome to work on a much, much more comprehensive data set than the one she discussed here.

I went through 112 players' junior stats. Do you know how long that took?

Not comprehensive, my ass. If it's not enough for you, do it yourself.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 05:32 PM
You forgot my analysis is horseshit. :smilewinkgrin:

He sure did

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 05:33 PM
If FG was a Sens prospect we would be rightfully mocking them for the selection instead of making a great pick in Lazar.

I don't know about mocking the selection. It wasn't that bad of a pick even if it doesn't really go with my philosophy to pick a player that you think will likely be a third liner with a 1st rounder. But I think we'd sure be looking at his numbers this year and questioning big time why the only legit NHL forward prospect on a CHL team isn't being given any PP time.

worm
02-26-2014, 05:37 PM
If FG was a Sens prospect we would be rightfully mocking them for the selection instead of making a great pick in Lazar.

After what I would call a disappointing draft year he is sure looking good.

worm
02-26-2014, 05:38 PM
I find it pretty baffling that ME is not on HLs side.

Maybe McCarron isnt so bad after all.


No...he is.

JaysCyYoung
02-26-2014, 05:39 PM
McCarron was an awful, awful pick. You don't take projects like him in the first round; not even at the end of the first round.

worm
02-26-2014, 05:41 PM
McCarron was an awful, awful pick. You don't take projects like him in the first round; not even at the end of the first round.

Im not very impressed with Fucale either.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 05:48 PM
I went through 112 players' junior stats. Do you know how long that took?

Not comprehensive, my ass. If it's not enough for you, do it yourself.

Oh simmer the **** down. I spent the better part of a ****ing month going over player data before I felt that I had done enough to bring up the 1.2 ppg thing I had a bit of a hunch about. 112 player's junior stats? Oh noes, the mother****ing horror, how did you survive the ordeal?

Just from this season:

Brandon Dubinsky: 18yrs 59 pts in 68 games (.87 ppg) - Best NHL 82 game pace: 58 points, This season: 57
Ondrej Palat: 18 yrs: 40 points in 59 games (.68ppg) - Best NHL 82 game pace: 48, This season: 48
Joel Ward: 18 yrs: 43 points in 63 games (.68ppg) - Best NHL 82 game pace: 46, This season: 46

So yeah, to be blunt I didn't even really try (and I stopped at guys who had 30 points currently) to be comprehensive. Just clicking on interesting names. So...if I can pull 3 exceptions out of a 5 minute scan of NHL.com, focusing on one season...what do you think would happen if I put the same care into it that I had put into my own work (which I've admitted on numerous occasions, I didn't really feel like I've even come close to finishing).

So yeah, not comprehensive at all. I'm sorry if you feel like you worked really hard on it and it took a lot of your time, but your hurt feelings does nothing to change the quality of the assertion.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 05:53 PM
I find it pretty baffling that ME is not on HLs side.

Maybe McCarron isnt so bad after all.


No...he is.

She's got an interesting idea as a spin off of what I did a few years ago. I just don't see anything resembling the strength there is behind my assertion, in hers. 12 years (16 now I think) produced 2 outliers. I've pulled 3 easy ones out from a quick run at NHL.com from just this season.

That's without getting into stuff like Hanzal who was PPG, but in the USHL...which is shite, at 18. Craig Smith who was also in the USHL, and scored 23 ****ing points in 58 games in the USHL at 18...but is on pace for 52 points this season for the Preds. Or even posing the argument concerning the functional difference between a .87 ppg guy like Gauthier (so far) and numerous .95-1.0ppg post draft CHL'ers that I haven't brought up.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 05:55 PM
Im not very impressed with Fucale either.

Depending on what SV%'s are like in the Q, I'd tend to agree.

JaysCyYoung
02-26-2014, 05:56 PM
Junior save percentages aren't a reliable measure of goaltending quality at all. There is virtually no relationship to the quality of the goalie and their save percentage in many cases.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 05:57 PM
Oh simmer the **** down. I spent the better part of a ****ing month going over player data before I felt that I had done enough to bring up the 1.2 ppg thing I had a bit of a hunch about. 112 player's junior stats? Oh noes, the mother****ing horror, how did you survive the ordeal?

Just from this season:

Brandon Dubinsky: 18yrs 59 pts in 68 games (.87 ppg) - Best NHL 82 game pace: 58 points, This season: 57
Ondrej Palat: 18 yrs: 40 points in 59 games (.68ppg) - Best NHL 82 game pace: 48, This season: 48
Joel Ward: 18 yrs: 43 points in 63 games (.68ppg) - Best NHL 82 game pace: 46, This season: 46

So yeah, to be blunt I didn't even really try (and I stopped at guys who had 30 points currently) to be comprehensive. Just clicking on interesting names. So...if I can pull 3 exceptions out of a 5 minute scan of NHL.com, focusing on one season...what do you think would happen if I put the same care into it that I had put into my own work (which I've admitted on numerous occasions, I didn't really feel like I've even come close to finishing).

So yeah, not comprehensive at all. I'm sorry if you feel like you worked really hard on it and it took a lot of your time, but your hurt feelings does nothing to change the quality of the assertion.

I think you would find around 10 guys who don't meet PPG, Dubinsky and Ward being two of the ~10 guys I found when I searched earlier in the season.

worm
02-26-2014, 05:57 PM
Junior save percentages aren't a reliable measure of goaltending quality at all. There is virtually no relationship to the quality of the goalie and their save percentage in many cases.

Good to know.

That makes me feel better.

worm
02-26-2014, 06:01 PM
She's got an interesting idea as a spin off of what I did a few years ago. I just don't see anything resembling the strength there is behind my assertion, in hers. 12 years (16 now I think) produced 2 outliers. I've pulled 3 easy ones out from a quick run at NHL.com from just this season.

That's without getting into stuff like Hanzal who was PPG, but in the USHL...which is shite, at 18. Craig Smith who was also in the USHL, and scored 23 ****ing points in 58 games in the USHL at 18...but is on pace for 52 points this season for the Preds. Or even posing the argument concerning the functional difference between a .87 ppg guy like Gauthier (so far) and numerous .95-1.0ppg post draft CHL'ers that I haven't brought up.

Thought it was .71 PPG for him.

My logic tells me 1.2PPG = 60 points that 10 points less would be around a PPG.

Of course the fact that tons of 1.2PPG end up doing nothng at the NHL level.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 08:00 PM
I think you would find around 10 guys who don't meet PPG, Dubinsky and Ward being two of the ~10 guys I found when I searched earlier in the season.

Currently sitting at 22, going into 2009/10 (working up from 97/98). It's getting a lot more common now that I seem to be beyond the era where CHL scoring was insane and everyone seemed to have a 100 point season post draft.

Highlights so far: Dubinsky, Scott Walker, Andrew Ladd, Matt Lombardi, Ryan Callahan, Ryan Clowe, Versteeg, James Neal

I didn't include anyone over .95ppg in their 18 yr old season in my count.

My general feeling on it though, is that there's a **** of a lot of good hockey players that are in the ~ppg range. If you normalize the leagues for scoring (as there are disparities), does Gauthier's .87 in the Q this season get a bunch closer to having the impact of Lucic's .97 in the higher scoring WHL? is 3-4 assists at this point (which would get Gauthier up into the .95 range, where all of a sudden there's a lot of 2nd line scorers, that I haven't included in my count, in the same neighbourhood...) really the difference between him having the upside of a 25 point plug or a 50 point centre?

Another interesting thing I've noticed, is the issue with trajectory. In the vast majority of cases, the post draft season is a CHL'ers 3rd and in quite a lot of them, there's a big jump from 2nd to 3rd season.

Yet another, is that there's a group of solid NHL hockey players that were sub PPG USHL players as 18 yr olds, with everything I've read on Behindthenet suggesting that players who leave the USHL for the CHL see their stats remain the same...but of course, that's the following season where we should be seeing an uptick (as is being right suggested here by the Gauthier doubting crowd). It's hard to think that those players, at that age, would have done any better in the CHL, than they did in the USHL and guys like Wheeler & Ryan Malone (among others) turned out just fine

Based on just this extended glimpse I took, when you get outside of the "impact" group of offensive performers, there are a lot of goofy career trajectories found in the 2nd line scoring range. It's not even remotely as neat and tidy as the higher end performer are.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 08:16 PM
Thought it was .71 PPG for him.

For who? Gauthier? no. 39 points in 45 games


My logic tells me 1.2PPG = 60 points that 10 points less would be around a PPG.

As a rule of thumb, sure. To use it as a method to dismiss the upside of a player that is actually quite close statistically to a lot of players we would simply allow in as ~ppg though, there's just too many quality hockey players in that range for question of difference in league scoring, strength of team, etc to be answered before I'm willing to ignore this many exceptions personally.


Of course the fact that tons of 1.2PPG end up doing nothng at the NHL level.

Yep. Which is why I've never pushed the 1.2 as a predictive tool, just as an aid in gauging ultimate upside.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 08:42 PM
Ryan Clowe had 73 points in 53 games in his post-draft year. He was on my list of guys who hit.

The others were on my list of around 10 guys who didn't and were on pace for 30+ points when I checked (not including Lombardi and Walker).

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 09:03 PM
Ryan Clowe had 73 points in 53 games in his post-draft year. He was on my list of guys who hit.

Clowe was drafted as a 19 yr old. His 18 yr old season was 25 points in 32 games.


The others were on my list of around 10 guys who didn't and were on pace for 30+ points when I checked (not including Lombardi and Walker).

I kept it to 35+, and only under .95ppg in the 18 yr old season. So I'm being pretty kind on the fringes of the analysis (I mean, I could claim Lucic is sub PPG at .97, but what's the point)

Regardless, there's a lot of exceptions so far, I've been pretty kind in what I would consider an exception to be, and I still have a few years worth of data to go through. This is all of course, besides the point of questioning the actual difference between .87 and .95 when clearly quite a few good hockey players failed to hit .95 in their post draft season. Unless we're adjusting for league and era, it's really difficult to hang your hat on .08ppg being the difference between potential top 6 upside, or being a plug who will be really lucky to score 30 points.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 09:17 PM
Hang my hat? I'm not really hanging my hat on anything. If I look at this years numbers and find that basically around 9 out of every 10 guys I looked at were able to hit a PPG, then I'm not sure I feel too good about his chances.

I feel like you guys are making excuses for him. I hope you're right, I'd really rather be wrong in this case.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 09:28 PM
Currently sitting at 22, going into 2009/10 (working up from 97/98). It's getting a lot more common now that I seem to be beyond the era where CHL scoring was insane and everyone seemed to have a 100 point season post draft.

Curious, 22 exceptions out of how many?

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 09:41 PM
Curious, 22 exceptions out of how many?

Don't know, didn't count. Again, as I mentioned in my previous post, without normalizing CHL scoring across league and eras, it's hard to take the fringey PPG guys who played in the CHL in the 90's seriously, when guys like Jan Bulis were ringing up 100 point seasons.

I've tried to track down CHL league scoring numbers in the past and haven't found a good source yet. It's something that I noticed when I did the digging that lead to my posting about 1.2. The different leagues all seemed to have periods of time where scoring went nuts.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 09:42 PM
Don't know, didn't count. Again, as I mentioned in my previous post, without normalizing CHL scoring across league and eras, it's hard to take the fringey PPG guys who played in the CHL in the 90's seriously, when guys like Jan Bulis were ringing up 100 point seasons.

I've tried to track down CHL league scoring numbers in the past and haven't found a good source yet. It's something that I noticed when I did the digging that lead to my posting about 1.2. The different leagues all seemed to have periods of time where scoring went nuts.

Don't you think that part is kind of important though?

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 09:51 PM
Don't you think that part is kind of important though?

I don't recall you counting either...I've been told that it's important.

zeke
02-26-2014, 09:57 PM
Freddy with a couple more goals tonight. On a bit of a hot streak now.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 09:58 PM
I don't recall you counting either...I've been told that it's important.

Sure, I did count. 112. I got around 10 exceptions out of the 112 guys I checked.

22 actually doesn't seem like that much if it's hundreds of guys from '97-'10.

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 09:59 PM
46GP, 41PTS - .89ppg

MindzEye
02-26-2014, 10:07 PM
Sure, I did count. 112. I got around 10 exceptions out of the 112 guys I checked.

There are 112 CHL alumnus that are on pace for more than 35 points this season? There's only ~150 forwards on pace for that period. Seems awful high.


22 actually doesn't seem like that much if it's hundreds of guys from '97-'10.

It's almost like you didn't read the part about difference in era scoring.

hockeylover
02-26-2014, 10:12 PM
There are 112 CHL alumnus that are on pace for more than 35 points this season? There's only ~150 forwards on pace for that period. Seems awful high.

More than 30 points when I checked earlier this season, yes.


It's almost like you didn't read the part about difference in era scoring.

I did read that part... you could always have not gone back that far...?

I was just wondering how much 22 was out of.

BeLeafer
02-27-2014, 07:48 AM
5th highest scorer in that draft

only 1 of those drafted after him

Go back and look at Gainey's junior production. It was way below everyone in the first round that year. Pollock drafted him because of his defensive game to add that dimension to the Habs forward lines back when.

The point here is that sometimes you go for guys like this in the first round. Gauthier looks like he could develop into an awesome two-way forward. So, basing assessment on his offensive numbers only is not going to work to project his potential NHL upside and role.

BeLeafer
02-27-2014, 07:48 AM
Oh, why the fluck is this discussion in this thread rather than the prospects thread?

Habspatrol
02-27-2014, 07:53 AM
Shit happens

hockeylover
02-28-2014, 12:09 PM
Tim Murray of the Sabres says they haven't made Miller an offer and he hasn't asked for one. He says it seems like they want to move.

number17
02-28-2014, 12:23 PM
Erhoff has been asked to submit 8 teams he's willing to lift his NTC clause for, and he's already done that. He expects to wear another jersey after the trade deadline.

The 31 years old signed on with the Sabres as an UFA to a 10 years, $40M contract 3 years ago when he hit the UFA market, coming off a 50 points season with the Canucks. He's been a ~ 35 points dman for the Sabres since then.

Question is, how many teams are wiling to take a 31 years old dman still with $28M left over 7 yrs.

leafman101
02-28-2014, 12:25 PM
What a terrible signing. Dump him after 3 useless seasons and they are going to take a $10 million cap penalty when he retires.

hockeylover
02-28-2014, 12:28 PM
I still don't know how Bolland gets off asking for the price he is. Crazy.

Pronger84
02-28-2014, 01:04 PM
Tim Murray of the Sabres says they haven't made Miller an offer and he hasn't asked for one. He says it seems like they want to move.

Murray was asked about the Miller situation last week and he said Miller wants a trade and the Sabres are doing everything to accomdate him but as long as it makes sense for them to do (aka assets).

Pronger84
02-28-2014, 01:05 PM
Erhoff has been asked to submit 8 teams he's willing to lift his NTC clause for, and he's already done that. He expects to wear another jersey after the trade deadline.

The 31 years old signed on with the Sabres as an UFA to a 10 years, $40M contract 3 years ago when he hit the UFA market, coming off a 50 points season with the Canucks. He's been a ~ 35 points dman for the Sabres since then.

Question is, how many teams are wiling to take a 31 years old dman still with $28M left over 7 yrs.

I bet u the Oilers are stupid enough to trade for him...

LeafGm
02-28-2014, 01:33 PM
I still don't know how Bolland gets off asking for the price he is. Crazy.
Two words: David Clarkson.

Dave Nonis only has himself to blame.

UWHabs
02-28-2014, 01:53 PM
What a terrible signing. Dump him after 3 useless seasons and they are going to take a $10 million cap penalty when he retires.

Don't think the Sabres will ever care about a cap penalty. I imagine they care more the fact that they've paid him 21M for the past 2.5 years of playing time.

Hoss
02-28-2014, 02:03 PM
The one player I hope is on the block because he's controllable at 4 mill or so is Giordano. He provides the offense and defense that is needed on this team. You won't get him for Franson, but I think Burke would do it for Gardiner and something.

Myers is still young but his cap hit is 5.5 Sure it aint bad, but with Giordano you know what you are going to get.

leafman101
02-28-2014, 02:06 PM
Burke said Giordano and Monahan are the only two players he probably wouldn't move yesterday.

Hoss
02-28-2014, 02:46 PM
I did not know that (said in the best Carson impression)

Pronger84
02-28-2014, 02:51 PM
Burke said Giordano and Monahan are the only two players he probably wouldn't move yesterday.

Burke also said a few months prior to joining the Leafs that he wasn't coming here, yet he did.... my point is don't take him at face value. Everyone is untouchable and available for the right price, I doubt he moves Monahan but Giorando could be moved if some team gives Burke a tempting offer.

Volcanologist
02-28-2014, 03:03 PM
He "probably" wouldn't move.

oh Burkie...

leafman101
02-28-2014, 03:06 PM
It was the same answer Nonis always gives. "Gretzky was traded so no one is untouchable...but these guys are untouchable."

Volcanologist
02-28-2014, 03:12 PM
Would love to see us get Myers. A basketball player-sized dude who can skate and has significant offensive upside? yes please.

Habsy
02-28-2014, 03:24 PM
Erhoff has been asked to submit 8 teams he's willing to lift his NTC clause for, and he's already done that. He expects to wear another jersey after the trade deadline.

The 31 years old signed on with the Sabres as an UFA to a 10 years, $40M contract 3 years ago when he hit the UFA market, coming off a 50 points season with the Canucks. He's been a ~ 35 points dman for the Sabres since then.

Question is, how many teams are wiling to take a 31 years old dman still with $28M left over 7 yrs.

You sure that's correct? I read somewhere he had to submit 8 teams he wasn't willing to play for.

Killer93
02-28-2014, 04:31 PM
Girardi resigns with NYR 6 yrs @ 5.5 aav

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 06:11 PM
Elliotte Friedman
Ryan Miller is expected to be a scratch...@andystrickland had Steve Ott, too.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JUCfX1P1ik

hairnova
02-28-2014, 06:12 PM
Sounds like Miller is going to the Blues.

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 06:15 PM
Good for the Blues, bad for Halak.

Jeremy Rutherford
Confirming reports that Ryan Miller is a late scratch tonight. It's believed that a deal is imminent and STL is the likely destination.

rated
02-28-2014, 06:16 PM
Miller on the blues...damn that's legit.

Hoss
02-28-2014, 06:18 PM
apparently Steve Ott is also a scratch.... I hope that Ott goes out west as well... I wonder if the Blues made it a bigger deal and got Ott as well.

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 06:18 PM
Ott could be going to the Blues as well, making them the most annoying team in the West.

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 06:23 PM
Bob McKenzie
Not saying this is it, but one scenario that has definitely been discussed: 3-way trade involving BUF, STL and OTT. A # of variations. STL would get Miller, OTT would get Chris Stewart, BUF would get prospects from OTT. If Ott (the player) included to STL, 1st rder to BUF.

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 06:37 PM
Renaud Lavoie
Jaroslav Halak traded to Sabres. #blues

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 06:37 PM
Renaud Lavoie
Jaroslav Halak traded to Sabres for Ryan Miller #blues

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 06:44 PM
St. Louis Blues
BREAKING: The Blues have acquired Miller & Ott from Buffalo for Halak, Stewart, Carrier & two picks. INFO >>> http://bit.ly/1fPaGKk

Hoss
02-28-2014, 06:51 PM
thank god Ott is going out west. this is not a three team deal??

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 06:56 PM
thank god Ott is going out west. this is not a three team deal??

No, that was just speculation from Bob Mac.

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 07:02 PM
That said, sounds like Stewart could be traded again...to Ottawa or Colorado.

Hoss
02-28-2014, 07:05 PM
yeah read it on tsn...

I actually don't think they paid too much. Halak was a salary throw in and not needed in Buffalo. Chris Stewart is a nice piece and I am not sure on Carrier, but its a first and third for a goalie that could put you over the top, and Ott could be amazing for you in the playoffs

Good deal for the blues

Wayward DP
02-28-2014, 07:09 PM
Tim Murray is dumb. He packages his two best deadline assets and gets a 1st round pick, a shitty contract for an underperforming player (Stewart), and a downgrade in net.

Is Carrier any good?

soco22
02-28-2014, 07:10 PM
Don't get why people are so hyped about miller. Meh. Guy hasn't proved a shitload to say he could put any team over the top.

Ott on the other hand is a dude that could be a nice additional piece.

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 07:13 PM
Tim Murray is dumb. He packages his two best deadline assets and gets a 1st round pick, a shitty contract for an underperforming player (Stewart), and a downgrade in net.

Is Carrier any good?

Stewart will probably get flipped, Halak is a UFA....complete rebuild in Buffalo.

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 07:14 PM
And they'll probably ship out Moulson and Ehrhoff.

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 07:15 PM
Bob McKenzie
I'm told there aren't likely to be any more BUF moves tonite. I'd say BUF will try to flip Jaro Halak to MIN and Chris Stewart to OTT.

Hoss
02-28-2014, 07:21 PM
I do hope Stewart stays away from Ottawa....

If the leafs trade Kulemin before the deadline, I would see what Buff wants for Stewart... but then I would just offer Kule 4 mill max, as Stewart is getting 4.1

rated
02-28-2014, 07:25 PM
Don't get why people are so hyped about miller. Meh. Guy hasn't proved a shitload to say he could put any team over the top.

Ott on the other hand is a dude that could be a nice additional piece.

Miller put up some good numbers this year on a crappy buffalo team, be interesting to see what he does with a much better defense in st louis.

Hoss
02-28-2014, 07:54 PM
Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 18m

Potential targets for BUF if it flips Stewart to OTT: Mark Stone, Matt Puempel, Mark Borowiecki, Fredrik Claesson. Tim Murray knows em all.

What are your calls Sens fans on who you would deal for Stewart or Moulson.

I hope to god the Sens don't pick up Moulson. He'd be the leaf killer that they have sorely missed. in forever

hockeylover
02-28-2014, 08:04 PM
Sens are buyers? Interesting. 5 points out of a wild card spot. Thought they'd stand pat.

MindzEye
02-28-2014, 08:50 PM
Girardi resigns with NYR 6 yrs @ 5.5 aav

Thank ****. He had "Leaf Mistake" written all over him.

MindzEye
02-28-2014, 08:56 PM
Tim Murray is dumb. He packages his two best deadline assets and gets a 1st round pick, a shitty contract for an underperforming player (Stewart), and a downgrade in net.

Is Carrier any good?

I don't think the downgrade in net matters much at all, Miller was really likely to walk shortly and Halak/Enroth is solid enough as the smallest tandem in the league. Chris Stewart is under performing, but there's only 1 more year at 4.1 million left on his deal and he was kind of buried on a deep St Louis team. A bit of 1st unit PP minutes and a prime time role, and Buffalo should be able to flip him for a pretty decent return next year.

Basically, Buffalo traded two impending UFA's that they would have had to overpay terribly to keep, and got a mixture of cap relief if they don't keep Halak, or a solid 1A if they pony up to re sign him as well as an intriguing power forward that when he's on his game, would be a tremendously valuable trade chip. Then add picks and stuff.

Not a bad deal for them at all.

MindzEye
02-28-2014, 08:57 PM
Sens are buyers? Interesting. 5 points out of a wild card spot. Thought they'd stand pat.

I could see them in on Stewart, who has another year remaining on his deal. Moulson though, no.

IrishWolfman
02-28-2014, 08:59 PM
I'd demand Puempel for Moulson or Stewart if I was the Sabres.

hockeylover
02-28-2014, 08:59 PM
I could see them in on Stewart, who has another year remaining on his deal. Moulson though, no.

Bobby Mac seemed to think there was a possibility of Stewart AND Moulson. That's a lot of futures they'd be giving up.

MindzEye
02-28-2014, 09:08 PM
Bobby Mac seemed to think there was a possibility of Stewart AND Moulson. That's a lot of futures they'd be giving up.

I don't see it. Surprised Bobby Mac thinks it's possible. Moulson is going to cost 1st rounder +, and right now Ottawa's 1st could pretty easily end up top 10-12. Throw into that mix the fact that Moulson isn't taking a discount on this contract. He's 30 already, has made **** all (relatively) in his career, and this is his one chance to cash in with a 5-6 year, 5-6+ million dollar deal. This is his retirement contract ostensibly...he's not leaving millions on the table, and Eugene isn't likely to open the wallet with playoff revenue very much in doubt right now.

I would imagine, that to get both, Buffalo is going to be asking for stuff like '14 1st, Ceci, Lazar, etc...and some form of package with 2 of those things in it. Buffalo will get their 1st + for Moulson from about ~8 teams at the deadline, so the question is whether or not they feel they're getting the right value for Stewart. If Ottawa isn't willing to pay for 30 goal Stewart, then Buffalo's best bet is to play him 19-20 minutes a game down the stretch, and to start next season and wait for someone to come calling. He's still only 26, brings legit size, skill and toughness to any top 6/9 forward group. ****...he's the kind of forward we're missing in our top 9 quite frankly. Big, mean, can work the walls and with 16-17 mpg, will give you 20+ goals.

Nonis should definitely be kicking tires on that.

hockeylover
02-28-2014, 09:11 PM
I don't see it. Surprised Bobby Mac thinks it's possible. Moulson is going to cost 1st rounder +, and right now Ottawa's 1st could pretty easily end up top 10-12. Throw into that mix the fact that Moulson isn't taking a discount on this contract. He's 30 already, has made **** all (relatively) in his career, and this is his one chance to cash in with a 5-6 year, 5-6+ million dollar deal. This is his retirement contract ostensibly...he's not leaving millions on the table, and Eugene isn't likely to open the wallet with playoff revenue very much in doubt right now.

I would imagine, that to get both, Buffalo is going to be asking for stuff like '14 1st, Ceci, Lazar, etc...and some form of package with 2 of those things in it. Buffalo will get their 1st + for Moulson from about ~8 teams at the deadline, so the question is whether or not they feel they're getting the right value for Stewart. If Ottawa isn't willing to pay for 30 goal Stewart, then Buffalo's best bet is to play him 19-20 minutes a game down the stretch, and to start next season and wait for someone to come calling. He's still only 26, brings legit size, skill and toughness to any top 6/9 forward group. ****...he's the kind of forward we're missing in our top 9 quite frankly. Big, mean, can work the walls and with 16-17 mpg, will give you 20+ goals.

Nonis should definitely be kicking tires on that.

They don't even still have their first. They already traded it in the Ryan deal. Good post though - I too question whether they'll open the bank for Moulson. The next year they'd have Spezza, Methot, Ryan, MacArthur up as UFAs and Stewart if they get him.

MindzEye
02-28-2014, 09:15 PM
They don't even still have their first. They already traded it in the Ryan deal. Good post though - I too question whether they'll open the bank for Moulson. The next year they'd have Spezza, Methot, Ryan, MacArthur up as UFAs and Stewart if they get him.

Good catch...and oh snap

Yeah...they'd have to foolishly gut their system to get that type of a deal done.

Moulson is the type of a player that has landed 1st + 3rd or better at the deadline, and Chris Stewart being a pretty consistent 20+ goal scorer with age and size on his side, with a year of a reasonable contract left isn't going to be particular cheap in prospect currency either.

I can't see Ottawa getting involved when they two players could easily cost them a combined ~10.5 million to keep around next season, and that's if Moulson doesn't just bolt to a higher bid.

corksens
02-28-2014, 09:46 PM
Sell. Don't buy.

The Sens never ****ing sell and sometimes thats the right move. Phillips isn't a key cog on this team. Trade him for a 2nd. Michalek too.

Metalleaf
02-28-2014, 09:48 PM
Don't forget Bob Macs son works for the Sens on sportsnet.

MindzEye
02-28-2014, 09:53 PM
Sell. Don't buy.

The Sens never ****ing sell and sometimes thats the right move. Phillips isn't a key cog on this team. Trade him for a 2nd. Michalek too.

With where the Sens are, hard to argue with that. If you can get someone like Stewart that you have under control for another year, for the right price, you do it....but no rentals, and get rid of your vets.

MyNameIsJonas
02-28-2014, 10:05 PM
Sell. Don't buy.

The Sens never ****ing sell and sometimes thats the right move. Phillips isn't a key cog on this team. Trade him for a 2nd. Michalek too.

Who in the **** is giving a 2nd for Phillips?

MyNameIsJonas
02-28-2014, 10:05 PM
With where the Sens are, hard to argue with that. If you can get someone like Stewart that you have under control for another year, for the right price, you do it....but no rentals, and get rid of your vets.

Yeah Stewert makes sense, rentals do not.

MindzEye
02-28-2014, 10:06 PM
Who in the **** is giving a 2nd for Phillips?

Hawks

MyNameIsJonas
02-28-2014, 10:07 PM
Hawks

Dick.

Deckie007
02-28-2014, 10:31 PM
Dick.

Offer or request?

JohnnyHolmes
02-28-2014, 10:47 PM
I read that Boston has / had interest in Phillips. I totally expect Murray to hand him a two / three year deal though. That would fit into his history of moronism.

Apparently Shane Prince wants out as well. He supposedly is considering signing in the KHL if he doesn't get an NHL opportunity, so I could see him in a deal for someone like Moulson.

I don't think the team should even be thinking of buying at this point. Unless Moulson signs an extension...and why would he...why bother?

The team needs D anyway. Outside of Karlsson and Methot, who is also supposedly in the doghouse himself, we are AHL caliber on a good day.

I expect Bryan Murray to do something stupid. Business as usual.

LeafGm
03-01-2014, 01:06 AM
I sincerely hope that Bryan Murray goes whole hog as a buyer at this year's deadline.

BeLeafer
03-01-2014, 07:23 AM
He might well be in ass-saving mode.

MindzEye
03-01-2014, 08:06 AM
That would be awesome, if he traded off good pieces for Stewart & Moulson, missed the playoffs still, only to have Moulson bolt in the off season.

zeke
03-01-2014, 11:31 AM
The blues have always been the shining exampleof how to get good goaltending at an efficient cost, but they've paid for the name goalie. Interesting to see whether he's even an upgrade at all for them.

Nice trade for buf, imo. They got a legit starting goalie back, who is younger and cheaper and signed and arguably not a downgrade, with some other legit talent pieces on top of that.

Matrim
03-01-2014, 11:33 AM
The blues have always been the shining exampleof how to get good goaltending at an efficient cost, but they've paid for the name goalie. Interesting to see whether he's even an upgrade at all for them.

Nice trade for buf, imo. They got a legit starting goalie back, who is younger and cheaper and signed and arguably not a downgrade, with some other legit talent pieces on top of that.

Halak isn't signed though he's a UFA and may very well be flipped again. Though grabbing a young power forward is always a good thing.

leafman101
03-01-2014, 11:38 AM
Overall Miller might not be better than Halak, but this year Miller is on fire. And if you are trying to win a cup that is a great thing.

MindzEye
03-01-2014, 11:46 AM
The blues have always been the shining exampleof how to get good goaltending at an efficient cost, but they've paid for the name goalie. Interesting to see whether he's even an upgrade at all for them.

The difference between the "name goalie" and Halak in this case is that Miller has shown the ability to be heavily leaned upon and maintain a good to high level of play. Halak tends to break down both physically and in quality of play when he's leaned on with a heavy workload.


Nice trade for buf, imo. They got a legit starting goalie back, who is younger and cheaper and signed and arguably not a downgrade, with some other legit talent pieces on top of that.

Can you really call a goalie who has been able to play more than 50 games once in a his career (also his worst full season), a "legit" starting goalie? I'd call him an good 1A at most.

I do agree though overall, Buffalo did really well in the deal. Though I fully expect them to flip Halak and Stewart for additional assets.

MyNameIsJonas
03-01-2014, 11:55 AM
Stewert they do not have to flip now.

The Wild or Capitals make a ton of sense for Halak.

MindzEye
03-01-2014, 12:17 PM
Also, a team that should be interested in Halak as long as they could get a window to negotiate an extension...the Brooklyn Islanders.

JohnnyHolmes
03-01-2014, 12:18 PM
Miller is seriously underrated on this board. On a good team, he is going to excel.

JaysCyYoung
03-01-2014, 12:19 PM
Miller is good enough to be the difference between a possible Stanley Cup run and a first round exit for the Blues. He was legitimately the one key piece that they were missing.

Halak is a solid goalie who can periodically play lights out but he lacks the consistency and workhorse ability to rely on.