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View Full Version : Reimer vs. Bernier, round #368 - Good read



number17
10-01-2014, 12:31 PM
By now the Bernier vs. Reimer discussion should be all but over, and while I wasn't a big fan of Sportsnet (as compared to TSN) I have found a number of really good articles on SNET recently. This probably tops that list, and it's revisiting the Reimer vs. Bernier discussion again but with some interesting stats to back it up ...

Sportsnet Link here (http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/why-bernier-is-maple-leafs-best-bet-in-goal/)

There's no doubt Bernier's won the #1 job over Reimer. I still believe Reimer can establish himself with a starter in this league, maybe with another team, but the stats show he's got plenty of work cut out for him if he is to take that next step.

zeke
10-01-2014, 01:32 PM
if Bernier plays like he did last year, he'd win the #1 job over most any goalie in the league.

LeafGm
10-01-2014, 01:39 PM
if Bernier plays like he did last year, he'd win the #1 job over most any goalie in the league.
Yeah, not beating out Bernier for the starter's job last year isn't a big mark against Reimer. Bernier was top notch when healthy. I still think Reimer's inevitable fate will be to end up as the #1 goalie of the Winnipeg Jets, where he'll post top 10-15 stats and be a massive upgrade over the trash they currently have in their crease.

number17
10-01-2014, 01:54 PM
I'm just surprised how poor Reimer is with clean shots. I think a lot of this is Reimer is too 'floppy' and he isn't set for even clean shots. It's timing, and it's also his style where he needs to play a quieter style and let the shots come to him instead. It seems like Reimer needs a good goaltending coach to get to the next level.

MindzEye
10-01-2014, 02:10 PM
The comments section makes me sad.

Bleedsblue&white
10-01-2014, 02:32 PM
It bothers me how much Reimer appears to fight things; IMO an NHL goalie should be past most of that.

BeLeafer
10-01-2014, 02:33 PM
Last December, the same guy posted a rather elaborate article to make the point that Reimer was, statistically-speaking, the best option for Team Canada in Sochi, concluding: “Since the lockout Reimer has the best save percentage among the contenders and also the only above-average mark in every individual category of the shot quality project.” http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/p...i-goalie-race/

Now, he's second fiddle to a guy who the author did not even consider a contender for Team Canada just 9 months ago. How can this be? It's called cherry picking. As he says, “I ran into these sample-size issues with James Reimer when I wrote last season about Olympic goaltender contenders last December. My self appointed window focused on performance heading into the Sochi, a window of about 60 games. The time frame highlighted the best hockey of Reimer’s pro career and an assessment, about 30 percent of his career total, leading to a favourable assessment.”

Except, that’s not exactly true. He also said in that article: “James Reimer has had three seasons of .920-plus save percentage performances. In his one playoff appearance he put up a .924 save percentage, yet this data is nullified by a nine-minute stretch last spring that ended in an historic loss for the Maple Leafs.”

Funny thing is … Reimer had never posted three.920-plus save percentage seasons. The author completely overlooked his.900 performance for the 2011-12 season. Now that he wants to make the case that Bernier is a significant upgrade over Reimer, that season’s data figure in.

It’s a judgement call how you select data for statistical presentation. Why go from 60 game comparison to entire career numbers? Virtually all of Reimer’s pre-2013/14 numbers are as a starter, whereas all of Bernier’s numbers from that period are as a backup. Not a great frame for comparison.

So, like when he made the case for Reimer being the best option for Sochi, he’s relying on 55 games from Bernier as a starter to claim he’s a significant upgrade. Old habits die hard.

zeke
10-01-2014, 03:02 PM
yeah, i don't think the analytics community realizes how much of the backlash against them is from them blatantly abusing, or more likely just not knowing, basic statistical concepts.

for example, its scary how much of the grabo>bozak argument is based on one statistical breakdown based on an absolutely irrelevant tiny sample size of grabo playing with kessel.

thankfully, most of the grabo>>bozie hardliners have remained just bloggers... except for that last hire the leafs made, unfortunately.

but the first couple of leaf hires, based on their writings, at least seem to understand the basics of statistical analysis.

Montana
10-01-2014, 03:12 PM
if Bernier plays like he did last year, he'd win the #1 job over most any goalie in the league.

http://www.brianstempin.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/feels-good-man-thumb.jpg

worm
10-01-2014, 03:13 PM
The comments section makes me sad.

I got a few chuckles.

Not as bad as a habs article on the NHL site where some guy is telling everyone waivers only exist after Oct 8.

MindzEye
10-01-2014, 03:22 PM
yeah, i don't think the analytics community realizes how much of the backlash against them is from them blatantly abusing, or more likely just not knowing, basic statistical concepts.

for example, its scary how much of the grabo>bozak argument is based on one statistical breakdown based on an absolutely irrelevant tiny sample size of grabo playing with kessel.

thankfully, most of the grabo>>bozie hardliners have remained just bloggers... except for that last hire the leafs made, unfortunately.

but the first couple of leaf hires, based on their writings, at least seem to understand the basics of statistical analysis.

Got into a short facebook tiff with the Ricecake side of Too Much Starch the other day and something I found amusing when going over the "advanced" stats that proved how good Grabo is and how stupid anyone who disagrees is.....is that his infamous 2010-11 season had a massive PDO accompanying it. Funny that I've never heard the pro grabo crowd mention that before. Both Grabo & Kulemin had huge PDO numbers that season and oddly, neither have come that close to being that good again.


Weird.

zeke
10-01-2014, 05:02 PM
yup.

TheCountofMonteCristo
10-02-2014, 07:15 PM
if Bernier plays like he did last year, he'd win the #1 job over most any goalie in the league.

I can think of two in our division alone he wouldn't beat out

Wayward DP
10-02-2014, 07:19 PM
I can think of two in our division alone he wouldn't beat out

your reading comprehension is better than that.

MindzEye
10-02-2014, 07:22 PM
I can think of two in our division alone he wouldn't beat out

One of the two never strings 2 good seasons together, so Bernier would probably beat him. Rask though, yeah agreed.

TheCountofMonteCristo
10-02-2014, 07:26 PM
Ok add I Lundquist there's 3, probably not Miller, there's 4, probably not Luongo so 5, not Renne so 6.... not Quick not Bishop Harding too. I guess it is still most but certainly not as one sided as Zeke made out. Granted I know he is a Reimer guy.

Montana
10-02-2014, 07:31 PM
His sv% was better last year than literally every guy you just mentioned, except Bishop who beat him out by 0.001.......further supporting zeke's claim, not refuting it.

zeke's not saying Bernier is the best goalie in the league.....he's saying if he plays at the obscene level he did last year, "he'd win the #1 job over most any goalie in the league."

Which isn't just accurate.....it's irrefutable.

MindzEye
10-02-2014, 07:41 PM
Ok add I Lundquist there's 3, probably not Miller, there's 4, probably not Luongo so 5, not Renne so 6.... not Quick not Bishop Harding too. I guess it is still most but certainly not as one sided as Zeke made out. Granted I know he is a Reimer guy.

So very, very weak.

Montana
10-02-2014, 07:45 PM
The comments section makes me sad.


I expect better from you......people like us aren't supposed to mix with those common folk.

MindzEye
10-02-2014, 08:11 PM
I expect better from you......people like us aren't supposed to mix with those common folk.

Every one has a dirty habit. Some people smoke, do drugs, or watch wrestling. I read comments sections. I don't post in them, but I read them.

zeke
10-03-2014, 02:38 AM
I can think of two in our division alone he wouldn't beat out

goaltending in our division rocks.


last year goalies with at least 40gms played:

1.Rask 58gms, .930sv%
2.Varly 63gms, .927sv%
2.Price 59gms, .927sv%
4.Bishop 63gms, .924sv%
5.Bobrovsky 58gms, .923sv%
5.Bernier 55gms, .923sv%

SundinsTooth
10-03-2014, 11:12 AM
Every one has a dirty habit. Some people smoke, do drugs, or watch wrestling. I read comments sections. I don't post in them, but I read them.

So do I. I particularly love any comments on stories that link from the Drudge Report. The slight mix of paranoia and racism and a dash of 'Murica are delicious.

MindzEye
10-03-2014, 11:35 AM
So do I. I particularly love any comments on stories that link from the Drudge Report. The slight mix of paranoia and racism and a dash of 'Murica are delicious.

It really stuns me that these people exist. I think I subconsciously use it as a mechanism to keep my natural optimism in check. We're never going to have hover cars with this many morons running around.

Kritter
10-03-2014, 11:37 AM
It really stuns me that these people exist.


Listen, someone has to pick up your garbage, deliver your pizza and fill your Tim's coffee with cream and sugar.

Kritter
10-03-2014, 11:38 AM
I apologize in advance to anyone that picks up garbage, delivers pizza and works at Tims.

MindzEye
10-03-2014, 11:39 AM
Listen, someone has to pick up your garbage, deliver your pizza and fill your Tim's coffee with cream and sugar.

Robots bro, robots. It's the only way to be sure that my garbage doesn't get dumped on my driveway, my pizza isn't cold and my coffee order isn't ****ed up.

Kritter
10-03-2014, 11:42 AM
Robots bro, robots. It's the only way to be sure that my garbage doesn't get dumped on my driveway, my pizza isn't cold and my coffee order isn't ****ed up.


Nice in theory but don't we already have enough deadbeats on ****ing welfare? You put robots in the position for these jobs and then your taxes go up.

Volcanologist
10-03-2014, 12:33 PM
Listen, someone has to pick up your garbage, deliver your pizza and fill your Tim's coffee with cream and sugar.

If you're lucky. double double they understand, anything more complex and good luck to you sir.

Kritter
10-03-2014, 12:40 PM
If you're lucky. double double they understand, anything more complex and good luck to you sir.

No doubt.

Stopped going to the Tim's thats a 3 minute drive down the road cause they were working on a 15-20% success rate with our orders. Went to the one on coverdale rd that gave us a whopping 50/50 chance of getting what we wanted. We were spoiled.
I think since they opened up Codiac Coffee and the other fancy place a few minutes from here, I have gone to Tim's maybe twice in the last 2 years. And that was only cause I was up way too early for anything else to be opened.

Mind you, someone brought me the new dark roast from Tim's the other last week and it wasn't all that bad.

MindzEye
10-03-2014, 01:23 PM
If you're lucky. double double they understand, anything more complex and good luck to you sir.

I have seen everything that a medium 2 milk, 1 sugar could possible become in alternate universes.....

Volcanologist
10-03-2014, 01:26 PM
I have seen everything that a medium 2 milk, 1 sugar could possible become in alternate universes.....

...are you a wizard?

MindzEye
10-03-2014, 01:27 PM
Nope...just limited to Timmies due to the geography of my work place.

BeLeafer
10-03-2014, 03:07 PM
Pretty sure they use robots for customers at Tims ... no idea how a human could drink that sludge.

Montana
10-03-2014, 03:13 PM
Pretty sure they use robots for customers at Tims ... no idea how a human could drink that sludge.


Have you ever had Kona coffee beans from Hawaii?

MindzEye
10-03-2014, 03:40 PM
Pretty sure they use robots for customers at Tims ... no idea how a human could drink that sludge.

No other option....welcome to the Sands man, where there's a Timmies in almost every camp and the only other option is the camp coffee....which is all sorts of no.

BeLeafer
10-03-2014, 05:46 PM
No other option....welcome to the Sands man, where there's a Timmies in almost every camp and the only other option is the camp coffee....which is all sorts of no.

https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fimage.made-in-china.com%2F2f0j00LerQihYFOVof%2FElectric-Kettle-UK-18A-.jpg&f=1

https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.physorg.com%2Fnewman%2Fgfx%2Fn ews%2Fhires%2F2013%2Fpeoplewillin.jpg&f=1

https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2F1220hslthemooncafe.files.wordpress .com%2F2011%2F05%2Farabica_catura_coffee_bean.jpg&f=1

https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sturbridgeyankee.com%2Fmedia%2 Fcatalog%2Fproduct%2Fcache%2F1%2Fimage%2F9df78eab3 3525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95%2Fc%2Fl%2Fclassic_hand-churn_coffee_grinder.jpg&f=1

https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fthumbs.dreamstime.com%2Fz%2Ffrench-press-coffee-22034242.jpg&f=1

BeLeafer
10-03-2014, 05:47 PM
Have you ever had Kona coffee beans from Hawaii?

Not that I can recall, but it sounds like, if I had, I would remember. Pretty sure I've had some bud from that area though!

Deckie007
10-03-2014, 06:08 PM
I usually just use my Keurig. Still trying to figure out why coffee from literally any kind of cafe/convenience store/hostel/airport in Europe is better than anything I've tasted in Canada.

Wayward DP
10-03-2014, 07:21 PM
Have you ever had Kona coffee beans from Hawaii?

I'm a bit of a coffee snob, and Kona beans are some of my favourite. There's also a brewery that uses them to make one of the best porters I've encountered, think it may be called Kona brewery actually. Good stuff.