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BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:06 AM
Let's keep it rolling. I'm putting my 4-0 record on the line to keep the Leafs streak moving forward!

Coyotes on tap. We beat them on the road last season. They are coming off a barnburner victory over the Capitals on Sunday. Mike Smith has been very weak this season, although his last two games were reasonably good. No elite offensive power on their forward lines, but some on the backend (Yandle and Ekman-Larsson).

If the Leafs can continue with their improved play over the past three games, this should be winnable. Expect Bernier in nets and no changes to the lineup. Leafs need to unleash their offensive prowess in this one. Rielly has been looking very dangerous lately.

number17
11-04-2014, 10:29 AM
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but for all intents and purposes this is a game the Leafs should and gotta win. I like the Leafs' chances on the road, free from all the pressure of playing at home. Coming off a 3 games winning streak, this can be a momtentum builder for the western swing as well. The Coyotes are 4-6-1 and have a 2.54 GFA but allowing 2.7 goals per game. Needless to say, this is a vulnerable team that we need to take advantage of.

PKForce81
11-04-2014, 10:29 AM
Hopefully you'll keep the streak going BL.

As mentioned before, it's rare for this team to put 4-5 good games(heck even less)so i'm trying to be cautious here and not get too excited. Hopefully what we've seen in the past few games is for real and it continues.

Coyotes are pretty weak all over but we shouldn't take them lightly. I'll say 3-1 Leafs.

BG
11-04-2014, 10:51 AM
Ekman-Larsson meet the "Russian Missle" (or is it "Finnish Missle", or does Finland have missles?).

http://thestar.blogs.com/.a/6a00d8341bf8f353ef019102129985970c-800wi

zeke
11-04-2014, 11:06 AM
Winnable game, but we can't take them too lightly.

The 'yotes have had their record sabotaged by awful goaltending so far, but either Smith or Dubnyk is capable of playing well in any given game. They have actually been a decent mediocre team 5v5, and OEL-Yandle have given them one of the best PPs in the league so far this year. This is no gimme, especially if their goalie steps up a bit.

PKForce81
11-04-2014, 11:46 AM
I remember in their last game one of the commentators mentioned they're very good at one thing and that's faceoffs. Best in the league apparently. Should be interesting to see how Bozie and Naz do in this one.

number17
11-04-2014, 11:50 AM
Bozie, last I checked, was at 53.6% and 6th best for FO in the league.

Kadri, OTOH, is worst on the team at 46% ... that is the only 1 area of Kadri's game he's REALLY gotta work on

zeke
11-04-2014, 03:50 PM
Ok, so I've added a 2nd possession number in now.

It's another zone-adjusted number, because I think that's a minimum context needed to make the stats make sense (zone adjustment means ignoring the first 10 seconds after any faceoff), and it doesn't hurt sample size too much.

I still think zone-adjusted 5v5 CLOSE is the best stat, only problem is that it really cuts the sample size - nearly in half for some players - and this early in the year we need all the sample size we can get.

So in addition to zone-adjusted 5v5 CLOSE (ccf%) i've added zone-adjusted 5v5 TOTAL (cf%). I still think the first number is best all things being equal but the 2nd numbers gives us a much bigger sample size to go off of, so it's probably similarly valuable at this point in the season.



Line 1

C N.Kadri (24): 11gms, 4gls, 5pts, 61.5ccf%, 58.2cf%, 16:28 (82gms, 30gls, 37pts) ---- 46.2fo%
C A.Vermette (32): 11gms, 2gls, 8pts, 44.8ccf%, 48.1cf%, 19:20 (82gms, 15gls, 60pts) ---- 56.5fo%

W P.Kessel (27): 11gms, 6gls, 14pts, 47.6ccf%, 45.8cf%, 18:48 (82gms, 45gls, 104pts)
W S.Doan (38): 11gms, 3gls, 8pts, 46.9ccf%, 49.6cf%, 19:08 (82gms, 22gls, 60pts)

W D.Winnik (29): 11gms, 1gls, 7pts, 61.6ccf%, 55.5cf%, 16:23 (82gms, 8gls, 52pts)
W T.Rieder (21): 1gms, 1gls, 1pts, 50.0ccf%, 56.5cf%, 11:30 (82gms, 82gls, 82pts)

Line 2

C T.Bozak (28): 11gms, 4gls, 10pts, 44.1ccf%, 43.7cf%, 18:58 (82gms, 30gls, 75pts) ---- 53.6fo%
C M.Hanzal (27): 8gms, 2gls, 6pts, 39.7ccf%, 54.1cf%, 16:44 (82gms, 21gls, 62pts) ---- 64.3fo%

W J.Vanryk (25): 11gms, 5gls, 7pts, 47.1ccf%, 44.7cf%, 19:29 (82gms, 37gls, 52pts)
W M.Erat (33): 11gms, 3gls, 5pts, 46.0ccf%, 51.8cf%, 16:14 (82gms, 22gls, 37pts)

W D.Clarkson (30): 11gms, 3gls, 4pts, 50.0ccf%, 50.0cf%, 15:44 (82gms, 22gls, 30pts)
W R.Klinkhammer (28): 10gms, 2gls, 2pts, 44.9ccf%, 50.8cf%, 12:27 (82gms, 16gls, 16pts)

Line 3

C P.Holland (23): 11gms, 1gls, 3pts, 49.3ccf%, 40.2cf%, 9:59 (82gms, 8gls, 22pts) ---- 48.3fo%
C S.Gagner (25): 11gms, 1gls, 3pts, 53.4ccf%, 54.0cf%, 16:41 (82gms, 8gls, 22pts) ---- 50.0fo%

W L.Komarov (27): 11gms, 0gls, 7pts, 50.9ccf%, 51.0cf%, 15:28 (82gms, 0gls, 52pts)
W M.Boedker (25): 11gms, 5gls, 8pts, 45.2ccf%, 47.7cf%, 18:09 (82gms, 37gls, 60pts)

W M.Santorelli (29): 11gms, 1gls, 5pts, 51.4ccf%, 50.5cf%, 12:37 (82gms, 8gls, 37pts)
W L.Korpikoski (28): 11gms, 1gls, 2pts, 51.5ccf%, 48.5cf%, 16:03 (82gms, 8gls, 15pts)

Line 4

C S.Carrick (22): 1gms, 0gls, 0pts, 66.7ccf%, 66.7cf%, 4:15 (82gms, 0gls, 0pts) ---- 50.0fo%
C J.Vitale (29): 11gms, 0gls, 2pts, 40.2ccf%, 36.8cf%, 11:36 (82gms, 0gls, 15pts) ---- 45.4fo%

W R.Panik (23): 10gms, 1gls, 1pts, 38.5ccf%, 35.4cf%, 7:27 (82gms, 8gls, 8pts)
W B.McMillan (24): 11gms, 0gls, 1pts, 43.3ccf%, 41.5cf%, 10:07 (82gms, 0gls, 8pts)

W C.Ashton (23): 2gms, 0gls, 0pts, 70.0ccf%, 66.7cf%, 5:52 (82gms, 0gls, 0pts)
W B.Crombeen (29): 7gms, 1gls, 1pts, 38.9ccf%, 35.1cf%, 7:44 (82gms, 12gls, 12pts)



Pair 1

D D.Phaneuf (29): 11gms, 0gls, 4pts, 54.8ccf%, 53.0cf%, 22:09 (82gms, 0gls, 30pts)
D O.E-Larsson (23): 11gms, 2gls, 8pts, 51.0ccf%, 53.5cf%, 25:57 (82gms, 15gls, 60pts)

D C.Franson (27): 9gms, 1gls, 3pts, 56.4ccf%, 51.3cf%, 19:12 (82gms, 9gls, 27pts)
D Z.Michalek (32): 11gms, 0gls, 1pts, 48.7ccf%, 55.4cf%, 20:22 (82gms, 0gls, 8pts)

Pair 2

D M.Rielly (20): 11gms, 1gls, 4pts, 54.1ccf%, 49.0cf%, 19:00 (82gms, 8gls, 30pts)
D K.Yandle (28): 11gms, 1gls, 10pts, 46.0ccf%, 47.9cf%, 26:08 (82gms, 8gls, 75pts)

D R.Polak (28): 11gms, 1gls, 1pts, 52.8ccf%, 47.8cf%, 20:35 (82gms, 8gls, 8pts)
D C.Murphy (21): 11gms, 1gls, 1pts, 48.8ccf%, 48.0cf%, 13:43 (82gms, 8gls, 8pts)

Pair 3

D J.Gardiner (24): 9gms, 1gls, 2pts, 48.8ccf%, 50.3cf%, 20:27 (82gms, 9gls, 18pts)
D M.Stone (24): 11gms, 1gls, 3pts, 41.5ccf%, 42.9cf%, 20:59 (82gms, 8gls, 22pts)

D S.Robidas (37): 10gms, 0gls, 2pts, 46.0ccf%, 46.8cf%, 16:52 (82gms, 0gls, 16pts)
D B.Gormley (22): ------



Starting Goalie

G J.Bernier (26): 8gms, .917sv%
G M.Smith (32): 8gms, .873sv%

Backup Goalie

G J.Reimer (26): 5gms, .929sv%
G D.Dubnyk (28): 4gms, .879sv%



Injured / Suspended

W J.Lupul (31): 9gms, 2gls, 3pts, 65.1ccf%, 59.8cf%, 18:09 (82gms, 18gls, 27pts)
W D.Booth (30): -------------
W B.Kozun (24): 5gms, 0gls, 1pts, 32.3ccf%, 36.2cf%, 8:54 (82gms, 0gls, 16pts)

W D.Moss (33): 6gms, 0gls, 1pts, 60.0cf%, 11:51 (82gms, 0gls, 14pts)

Bleedsblue&white
11-04-2014, 06:02 PM
We haven't done so well in the desert in the recent past, but here's hoping.

Bleedsblue&white
11-04-2014, 06:05 PM
I forget all about Booth, wonder if he''l be this year's Clarkson? It's going to take a while for him to play himself into shape and he hasn't even started.

LeafGm
11-04-2014, 06:25 PM
I forget all about Booth, wonder if he''l be this year's Clarkson? It's going to take a while for him to play himself into shape and he hasn't even started.
He may be starting behind the eight ball, in terms of game readiness, as Clarkson did last year. But he at least won't be saddled with any expectations when he gets back. We got him for free via free agency, and paid next-to-nothing to get him when it comes to his cap hit. And a couple of our other "discount" signings (Santorelli & Winnik) are already working out quite well for us, so whether he's just slightly better depth for our fourth line or he rediscovers his scoring touch at all, whatever he does will be a complete bonus.

blacksheep
11-04-2014, 07:05 PM
The way Reimer has played lately, I'd much prefer if he started. Regardless, this SHOULD be a "gimme," and our game to lose.

Bleedsblue&white
11-04-2014, 08:05 PM
I just meant that Booth may take all year to get back into shape.

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 08:57 PM
Surprisingly, Reimer is starting tonight.

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
11-04-2014, 09:02 PM
Surprisingly, Reimer is starting tonight.

Bernier is a perfect 3-0 against the Yotes but Carlyle says he is rewarding Reimer.

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:06 PM
Well, you just knew it wouldn't last. Apparently, Bozak is back with Kessel and JVR tonight. Please be wrong twitter people.

hockeylover
11-04-2014, 09:08 PM
"Which goalie do we play tonight? Idk, they're both so awesome."
- things I never thought I'd say again 5 years ago

hockeylover
11-04-2014, 09:09 PM
Well, you just knew it wouldn't last. Apparently, Bozak is back with Kessel and JVR tonight. Please be wrong twitter people.

I find it pretty strange that old school Randy would **** with a team that's just won three in a row.

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:10 PM
I find it pretty strange that old school Randy would **** with a team that's just won three in a row.

I'm truly stunned by this. It's just stupid.

hockeylover
11-04-2014, 09:12 PM
I'm truly stunned by this. It's just stupid.

Did it happen? I'm at work :(

Looks like JVR Bozak Clarkson on Icetracker to me. Much ado about nothing?

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:14 PM
Did it happen? I'm at work :(

Mirtle ... and he did start the game with them but seems to have returned to sanity.

How about this fourth line?!

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:19 PM
Let's get this pp going!

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:20 PM
5 on 3 ... get it done.

Volcanologist
11-04-2014, 09:23 PM
Franson is drunk.

hockeylover
11-04-2014, 09:23 PM
Shitty.

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:23 PM
Wow, this powerplay sucks.

Volcanologist
11-04-2014, 09:24 PM
Reim Time.

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:24 PM
Denied.

Helluva stop by Reimer.

hockeylover
11-04-2014, 09:24 PM
I'd like to see more Kadri-Kessel on the PP.

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:25 PM
Leafs are looking a bit stoned so far. Time for the smelling salts.

Killer93
11-04-2014, 09:26 PM
Just sloppy so far; Reimer keeping them in

hockeylover
11-04-2014, 09:26 PM
Well ****.

CRL
11-04-2014, 09:26 PM
Long overdue

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:27 PM
Geez.

Gardiner with the horrific giveaway.

Pass the bong, boys.

Killer93
11-04-2014, 09:27 PM
They totally deserved that one; wake the **** up *******s

Killer93
11-04-2014, 09:32 PM
Patience with Gardiner is starting wear thin

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:33 PM
Gardiner is too much pussy. He's really gotta grow a pair. Easily intimidated by physical play.

Killer93
11-04-2014, 09:35 PM
Arizona is clogging the neutral zone; same thing Boston and Detroit did to us

CRL
11-04-2014, 09:35 PM
I smell blowout

LeafGm
11-04-2014, 09:36 PM
It seems like 90% of this game has been played behind our side of center ice.

BeLeafer
11-04-2014, 09:36 PM
C'mon, James ... that's just weak.

The only Leaf playing remotely well is Ashton. Look for him to get scratched next game.

Killer93
11-04-2014, 09:37 PM
Yep looks like wont have to stay up late; zero intensity and lazy hockey

hockeylover
11-04-2014, 09:38 PM
Feels like we only really win when we score first otherwise we're too fragile mentally to pick up our socks.

PKForce81
11-04-2014, 09:47 PM
heh. I guess 101 was right. It was that meeting for sure that got them going. I turned it off after 15 min. They came out and started standing around and watching Coyotes cycle...Great ****ing job..Just get a new coach or someone who can get these ****ers prepared properly.

Killer93
11-04-2014, 09:48 PM
This is classic Leafs; best the blackhawks but take a nap for the yotes. 9 yrs of this shit

hockeylover
11-04-2014, 10:09 PM
Shots are 14-2? Yikes.

hockeylover
11-04-2014, 10:14 PM
... 3-0.

Ugh.

Killer93
11-04-2014, 10:15 PM
Reimer overplayed that huge

MapleLeafBlueJayBoy
11-04-2014, 10:18 PM
The team has been trash but Reimer gets a chance to take advantage in the starting goaltender race and fails. Again.

leaffan2005
11-04-2014, 10:19 PM
Please score here. My eyes are starting to bleed.

leaffan2005
11-04-2014, 10:20 PM
Thanks. See all you have to do is ask.

hockeylover
11-04-2014, 10:21 PM
They ARE alive!

MindzEye
11-04-2014, 10:22 PM
This ****ing team....it's been said a bunch by others, but so mentally weak. Get scored on...play like bitches, score a goal, play like they're all 7 feet tall.

leaffan2005
11-04-2014, 10:23 PM
Well, we haven't lost in regulation yet on the road and Phoenix loves giving up leads, so this one is far from over. But yes, not sure why these guys can't play consistent hockey.

leaffan2005
11-04-2014, 10:28 PM
Atta' boy Reims. Need him to shut the door here.

zeke
11-04-2014, 10:58 PM
nice of them to show up halfway through the game.

zeke
11-04-2014, 11:02 PM
welp, we can win this one with one good period. smith is rebound central.

reimer has to shut the door, though.

zeke
11-04-2014, 11:15 PM
the real kick in the nuts in this one is that as badly as we've been outplayed, two of their goals were just horrific giveaways in front of the net by us.

zeke
11-04-2014, 11:17 PM
the yotes will fold if we score one soon.

leaffan2005
11-04-2014, 11:18 PM
Hockey is so much fun with the trap!

leaffan2005
11-04-2014, 11:24 PM
Sucks to throw away points against a garbage team.

zeke
11-04-2014, 11:25 PM
we literally did give these ones away. textbook not showing up tonight.

edit: GOOOOOAAAAAALLLLLL

zeke
11-04-2014, 11:26 PM
sweet pass from jvr.

leaffan2005
11-04-2014, 11:32 PM
Atta' boy Dion you ****ing tool.

leaffan2005
11-04-2014, 11:33 PM
What a stupid ****ing captain we have. Bring back Mats.

zeke
11-04-2014, 11:34 PM
it's really embarassing how good we made this team look for the first 30 minutes.

zeke
11-04-2014, 11:39 PM
stupid team.

leaffan2005
11-04-2014, 11:39 PM
Thanks Dion. Can you tear something and stay home next time?

LeafGm
11-04-2014, 11:40 PM
Nice that they made it close, but it was too little too late.

Hopefully they decide to start playing at the beginning of the game against Colorado.

BeLeafer
11-05-2014, 12:16 AM
On the replay (though I couldn't tell clearly) it looked like Reimer was interfered with on the second goal. I was perplexed as to how he ended up outside his crease and someone definitely caught him there. Looked like a Coyotes player.

In any event, just an awful showing in the first 30 minutes. Randy's solution -- go back to the Bozak as first line centre delusion and leave kadri to play with a couple of offensive plugs. It's amazing how quickly he will pull out the whip on this guy. He can't be fired soon enough.

I'm with you all the way, 2005 ... Dion is an incredibly stupid player. Taking that penalty at that point of the game is just pathetic beyond words.

But really, the game was decided in the first 30 minutes. The Leafs were just gliding out there. It was pretty disappointing.

BeLeafer
11-05-2014, 12:32 AM
Oh, can anyone possibly explain that little stunt where Randy started the game with Bozak up on the first line and then went back to Kadri on the next shift? Honestly, like WTF is that?

blacksheep
11-05-2014, 01:18 AM
heh. I guess 101 was right. It was that meeting for sure that got them going.

For sure. And now the season is all but ours to take... lol!
No captain.
No coach.
No heart.
Surprised Reimer got the start, but look for him to not get any more starts, thanks to Randy's skewed vision.
Say goodbye to to the Kadri-Kessel line. This coach couldn't even keep that change together long enough to get used to each other before breaking it up. So much for Randy actually changing.
What a waste of an effort. What a waste of what should have been two easy points. And many thanks to Randy for never, EVER calling a timeout.

leafman101
11-05-2014, 07:35 AM
heh. I guess 101 was right. It was that meeting for sure that got them going. I turned it off after 15 min. They came out and started standing around and watching Coyotes cycle...Great ****ing job..Just get a new coach or someone who can get these ****ers prepared properly.

Heh. I thought they never had problems with standing around and watching? They just need to switch up the lines again, right? Thats the only problem here.

Killer93
11-05-2014, 07:54 AM
And then there's this: Bozak 21:12, Kadri 14:10, Santorelli 7:37 & Carrick 6:01 last night. Carlyle's love affair with Bozak will be the hill he dies on

Leafyblue
11-05-2014, 08:29 AM
And then there's this: Bozak 21:12

Showcase?

zeke
11-05-2014, 09:30 AM
people rag on bozak too much. guy's one of the top-30 ppg players in hockey over this year and last. 60pts in 70gms now (70pt pace).

PKForce81
11-05-2014, 09:41 AM
Heh. I thought they never had problems with standing around and watching? They just need to switch up the lines again, right? Thats the only problem here.

You're saying that it's a huge issue their work ethic(which we've had for so long now) and you still think the team will make the playoffs(based on your analysis before season started). You talked about depth we have and so on..while i said it's pretty much the same team with a better cycle game and told you Phaneuf will look worse..which looks pretty spot on. I still think those lines made a difference but if they play shitty right from start(they basically started the game standing and looking so it's not really giving up..how the **** do you fix that?)..I refuse to think that these guys can't be more consistent with effort so the only thing they can do now is to fire Randy(maybe it's true what others said and they are giving up on him)..Not sure what else can be done really.

PKForce81
11-05-2014, 09:49 AM
people rag on bozak too much. guy's one of the top-30 ppg players in hockey over this year and last. 60pts in 70gms now (70pt pace).

It's mostly BL but yea. Lines should have stayed the same as Naz does look better up there.

zeke
11-05-2014, 09:53 AM
I will say that this is the first time this year they've pissed away points to a bad team. Hopefully it doesn't happen again.

leafman101
11-05-2014, 09:58 AM
You're saying that it's a huge issue their work ethic(which we've had for so long now) and you still think the team will make the playoffs(based on your analysis before season started). You talked about depth we have and so on..while i said it's pretty much the same team with a better cycle game and told you Phaneuf will look worse..which looks pretty spot on. I still think those lines made a difference but if they play shitty right from start(they basically started the game standing and looking so it's not really giving up..how the **** do you fix that?)..I refuse to think that these guys can't be more consistent with effort so the only thing they can do now is to fire Randy(maybe it's true what others said and they are giving up on him)..Not sure what else can be done really.

What are you talking about? You responded to me complimenting the teams leadership group for holding a closed door meeting with "the only problem with the Leafs has been their line combinations, effort was never a problem and switching up the lines was the only reason they turned things around." I tried to warn you how ridiculous that line of argument was.

But now you are calling me out because they lost a game because the effort level wasn't there? Come on. Why bother.

leafman101
11-05-2014, 10:03 AM
They had no answer for Phoenix's aggressive forecheck early in the game. Its an easy in-game asjustment from the coaching staff that didn't happen until the first intermission. Stop trying to chip pucks passed the two guys on you and even up the numbers. If Phoenix is putting two guys on the puck, you need two guys on the puck.

The Leafs weren't prepared last night. It was on Carlyle. The coach needs the team to know what they are in for from puck drop.

Also, as bad as Smith is at stopping pucks, he is a great asset in preventing the forecheck and really allows the Coyotes to be aggressive up ice because of how amazing he is handling the puck.

They aren't a great team by any means, but they are a tough team to play against. They make you work for it.

number17
11-05-2014, 10:13 AM
It's a bad game, but losing 1 after winning 3 is not the problem here. The problem is HOW we lost.

And at least we made a game out of it after falling behind 0-3, but boy, what happened in the first half of the game? Someone should start lying to the Leafs about the start time from now on, to make them think games start 1 hr before they actually do??

- The 5 on 3 PP was PATHETIC. I have never seen a PP, never mind a 5 on 3, more static than ours. Everybody just stood around. the Pkers hardly have to move. Even then, when we finally setup for point-shots, Phaneuf broke his stick and Franson can't stay on his skates. We REALLY, REALLY gotta fix our PP system.

- Can someone explain to me why Holland was on the ice instead of Kadri, Santo, Clarkson ... and all the other players with more points than him in the dying seconds of the game pressing for a goal? And - I actually LIKE Holland but he shouldn't be the go-to-guy.

- And, given how much Gardiner has struggled in this game, can someone explain to me why was Gardiner on the ice in the dying minutes?? I'd take Franson (who scored) or Rielly (who is better skating through traffic for zone entry) over him.

- I am really beginning to worry about Gardiner now. He has been BAD thus far this season.

- I don't get Kadri's 14 min and Santo's 7 min of icetime

- Carrick can play

- It's painful watching how Smith killed our forecheck all game long with his stick handling, but we just kept trying the same dump in all game long. In-game adjustment is completely absent on this team.

- When the Leafs score the first goal, we're 5-0-0. When we don't? 1-5-1.



Pissing away points sucks, but worse is how we decided to take the 1st half off. I want to blame the coach too (and I think we can) but at some point, the players gotta take responsibilities too. Does the coach ahve to tell you the game starts now?

Leafyblue
11-05-2014, 10:38 AM
Randy and the team have no idea how to beat the trap.

blacksheep
11-05-2014, 10:45 AM
Pissing away points sucks, but worse is how we decided to take the 1st half off. I want to blame the coach too (and I think we can) but at some point, the players gotta take responsibilities too. Does the coach ahve to tell you the game starts now?

YES!
Especially when you have a young team, like ours, who has shown more than once that they don't bring it for the game. It is on the coach to get his players to bring it. When the coach can no longer get his players to bring it, or he chooses not to bother trying to get them to bring it, it's time for that coach to go.
How about a timeout to yell at the guys after the second goal? After the shoddy 5on3? Just let them off without saying a word??

PKForce81
11-05-2014, 10:46 AM
It's a bad game, but losing 1 after winning 3 is not the problem here. The problem is HOW we lost.

And at least we made a game out of it after falling behind 0-3, but boy, what happened in the first half of the game? Someone should start lying to the Leafs about the start time from now on, to make them think games start 1 hr before they actually do??

- The 5 on 3 PP was PATHETIC. I have never seen a PP, never mind a 5 on 3, more static than ours. Everybody just stood around. the Pkers hardly have to move. Even then, when we finally setup for point-shots, Phaneuf broke his stick and Franson can't stay on his skates. We REALLY, REALLY gotta fix our PP system.

- Can someone explain to me why Holland was on the ice instead of Kadri, Santo, Clarkson ... and all the other players with more points than him in the dying seconds of the game pressing for a goal? And - I actually LIKE Holland but he shouldn't be the go-to-guy.

- And, given how much Gardiner has struggled in this game, can someone explain to me why was Gardiner on the ice in the dying minutes?? I'd take Franson (who scored) or Rielly (who is better skating through traffic for zone entry) over him.

- I am really beginning to worry about Gardiner now. He has been BAD thus far this season.

- I don't get Kadri's 14 min and Santo's 7 min of icetime

- Carrick can play

- It's painful watching how Smith killed our forecheck all game long with his stick handling, but we just kept trying the same dump in all game long. In-game adjustment is completely absent on this team.

- When the Leafs score the first goal, we're 5-0-0. When we don't? 1-5-1.



Pissing away points sucks, but worse is how we decided to take the 1st half off. I want to blame the coach too (and I think we can) but at some point, the players gotta take responsibilities too. Does the coach ahve to tell you the game starts now?

For the first time i'm starting to agree with you guys on Carlyle. During the first 10 min or so, my thought was that Randy was trying to start the period playing cautious hockey so we dont' get scored on..Problem is, has he not learned anything about this team's defensive play and what happens when we just collapse? And so the first goal came and i knew the rest of the night would suck(even though they picked up their work ethic).

number17
11-05-2014, 10:51 AM
YES!
Especially when you have a young team, like ours, who has shown more than once that they don't bring it for the game. It is on the coach to get his players to bring it. When the coach can no longer get his players to bring it, or he chooses not to bother trying to get them to bring it, it's time for that coach to go.
How about a timeout to yell at the guys after the second goal? After the shoddy 5on3? Just let them off without saying a word??I did say we can, and we should blame the coach. His in-game adjustment is horrible (as always).

However, I don't think I can put the onus on the coach alone. Players showed up with no energy, and no jump in our game, and that is not (only) the coach's fault. You're all professionals making millions, you shouldn't be told to work hard when the game starts. We can't forever hide behind the 'young team' label. The core of this team is NOT that young anymore - Kadri, Rielly and Gardiner are the only 'young' guys in our core.

hockeylover
11-05-2014, 10:51 AM
- When the Leafs score the first goal, we're 5-0-0. When we don't? 1-5-1.

Yeah, you can see them wilt at the first sign of adversity. Troubling.

BeLeafer
11-05-2014, 10:56 AM
It's mostly BL but yea. Lines should have stayed the same as Naz does look better up there.

I didn't rag on Bozak once.

PKForce81
11-05-2014, 11:03 AM
101, i apologize. I was mostly being sarcastic with my initial post but then went overboard with it because i'm sick and tired of watching this team fail year after year. Montreal just had a few games stretch where they got outworked by every team(and so it happens, it's not just us) so this 1 game isn't necessarily indicative of whether the changes worked or not. We simply will have games(again like every other team) where we're not on our best. Let's give it 10-15 more games and then we'll see if anything is different. I'm definitely not happy with Randy right now.

PKForce81
11-05-2014, 11:06 AM
I didn't rag on Bozak once.

Yea you said Toolzak. :D..Nah i think it was CRL actually. You did say how Randy gave Bozak time on first line last night though..which is ok i actually agree that Naz should be up there. In fact i think Naz should be put up on the first PP with Phil as they'll probably find each other easier(never really saw the whole "chemistry with Bozak and Kessel" stuff). While i do like Bozak i'd much prefer him playing along the wall and more cycle game then a game that is about open room and using skill. That's meant for Kessel and Kadri.

blacksheep
11-05-2014, 11:07 AM
I did say we can, and we should blame the coach. His in-game adjustment is horrible (as always).

However, I don't think I can put the onus on the coach alone. Players showed up with no energy, and no jump in our game, and that is not (only) the coach's fault. You're all professionals making millions, you shouldn't be told to work hard when the game starts. We can't forever hide behind the 'young team' label. The core of this team is NOT that young anymore - Kadri, Rielly and Gardiner are the only 'young' guys in our core.

I was responding to your question about the coach needing to remind the players to get going. On a team that regularly puts out the effort, the coach wouldn't have to.
THIS team is not one of those teams, however. So the answer is yes, he should.
Sure, the players didn't bring it, so some of the blame is theirs. But in that case, that's a great time for the coach to call a timeout.
When's the last time Carlyle called a timeout?
Lord knows he's had plenty of reasons to call one in games prior, and chose not to. He just lets his team flounder around until they figure it out themselves? Is he not the coach?

Volcanologist
11-05-2014, 11:27 AM
Inconsistent performances are the hallmark of a mediocre team...which is what we are right now.

I just want this season to end so I can see which players Shanahan wants to go forward with.

ForeverTML
11-05-2014, 11:40 AM
Inconsistent performances are the hallmark of a mediocre team...which is what we are right now.

I just want this season to end so I can see which players Shanahan wants to go forward with.

He's the same guy who tried exceptionally hard to retain Dave "IR" Bolland. So I dont really have too much confidence in his decision making at this point.

But yeah, this team continues to confound carlyle into saying that it is "unfathomable" on how they start / finish / playout some games. Its really hard to understand as a fan how a team that had the capacity to have Chicago on their heels for 40 minutes, can play so differently just period to period.

BeLeafer
11-05-2014, 11:56 AM
Yea you said Toolzak. :D..Nah i think it was CRL actually. You did say how Randy gave Bozak time on first line last night though..which is ok i actually agree that Naz should be up there. In fact i think Naz should be put up on the first PP with Phil as they'll probably find each other easier(never really saw the whole "chemistry with Bozak and Kessel" stuff). While i do like Bozak i'd much prefer him playing along the wall and more cycle game then a game that is about open room and using skill. That's meant for Kessel and Kadri.

I was clearly ragging on Carlyle and I've been complimentary of Bozak's play over the past year.

zeke
11-05-2014, 12:42 PM
Inconsistent performances are the hallmark of a mediocre team...

interestingly, they're also a hallmark of good teams.

Volcanologist
11-05-2014, 12:57 PM
He's the same guy who tried exceptionally hard to retain Dave "IR" Bolland. So I dont really have too much confidence in his decision making at this point.


True but I like the rest of what he's done. This franchise's #1 problem is failure at the draft, has been for decades, and bringing in a guy like Hunter into a top job will hopefully help fix that.

number17
11-05-2014, 01:14 PM
In the post-game interview, Carlyle called the start to the game "turtle start" ... "it's slower than slow and we could not recover from it."

That, Randy, sounds awfully like a broken record to me.

LeafOfFaith
11-05-2014, 01:44 PM
I hated Carlyle from the first moment I saw his fat face behind our bench.

The guy stinks and it annoys to no end to think about what we might've been had we not had this guy pulling the strings.

MyNameIsJonas
11-05-2014, 02:14 PM
Why did Randy go back to old lines?

Leafin'
11-05-2014, 02:22 PM
Thats what i don't get.

The minute the lines new lines are struggling, he goes right back to the old ones.

MindzEye
11-05-2014, 02:48 PM
Because old people are creatures of habit with most entirely unwilling to accept that once worked for them, no longer works for them.

MyNameIsJonas
11-05-2014, 03:31 PM
Because old people are creatures of habit with most entirely unwilling to accept that once worked for them, no longer works for them.

Especially if they have won a cup.

leafman101
11-05-2014, 03:34 PM
Coaches stacking a line when down in the third isn't an unusual thing. Say what you want about JVR-Bozak-Kessel but that has been one of the most prolific lines in hockey the last few years.

Carlyle isn't the first coach, and won't be the last coach to do that.

MyNameIsJonas
11-05-2014, 03:36 PM
Coaches stacking a line when down in the third isn't an unusual thing. Say what you want about JVR-Bozak-Kessel but that has been one of the most prolific lines in hockey the last few years.

Carlyle isn't the first coach, and won't be the last coach to do that.

are you his son?

leafman101
11-05-2014, 03:38 PM
I critcized Carlyle in this thread.

Thats just a weird thing to criticize. Carlyle didn't invent stacking a line when trailing.

number17
11-05-2014, 03:38 PM
When things aren't working, there's a natural tendency to go back to what 'worked' in the past.

I don't have a huge issue with Carlyle reverting back to Bozie - Kessel.

I wish he had more patience though.

And I have a bigger problem with Kadri's 14 min of icetime, in the same game that Holland got 15.

PKForce81
11-05-2014, 04:45 PM
Because old people are creatures of habit with most entirely unwilling to accept that once worked for them, no longer works for them.

Pretty much this.

At first i thought the guy knows what he's doing but lately im thinking he has no clue. I watched last night's game again and i can't figure out why he would go back to JVR Bozak Kessel especially when you're playing against a team that is mostly about board play and in your face type hockey...So what happened? As usual they had a hard time getting much done as Coyotes easily outmuscled all 3 and didn't allow much skating room. The third line did it's thing with good cycle but it just wasn't enough.

The guy literally has no clue and he even admits it pretty much by saying same shit over and over.

LeafGm
11-05-2014, 04:47 PM
I dunno, I'm as big a Carlyle critic as anyone, but I don't have much issue with Kadri's 14 minutes of ice-time. The dude's got 5 points (and one assist) in 14 games, and is playing with none of the physical intensity that he showed over and over in his "break-out" season. He also blows on faceoff again this year---by far the worst out of all of our centers.

At a certain point, it's up to Naz to earn more ice-time than he's getting.

PKForce81
11-05-2014, 04:48 PM
As for this line being best in the league last year. Come on, this line is becoming so easy to figure out and most teams have. When you take away space pretty much every team will be able to shut them down. They aren't able to give teams different looks out there and that's a huge issue imo.

PKForce81
11-05-2014, 04:52 PM
I dunno, I'm as big a Carlyle critic as anyone, but I don't have much issue with Kadri's 14 minutes of ice-time. The dude's got 5 points (and one assist) in 14 games, and is playing with none of the physical intensity that he showed over and over in his "break-out" season. He also blows on faceoff again this year---by far the worst out of all of our centers.

At a certain point, it's up to Naz to earn more ice-time than he's getting.

I've never been the one to criticize players when it comes to production(unless it's really bad). To me he's doing a really good job on the defensive end and clearly has more ability(vision, skill, board play) than Bozak. It might take more than a few games to get him going but i'm confident he can do it. I literally see no reason why Carlyle decided to drop his minutes. I was seeing Bozak have a chance after chance last night and he messed up all of them..Naz would have buried those i'm pretty sure. I just hope now Carlyle doesn't revert back to the old lines for good..The new ones were working..and will continue as long as the effort is there.

MindzEye
11-05-2014, 04:59 PM
I dunno, I'm as big a Carlyle critic as anyone, but I don't have much issue with Kadri's 14 minutes of ice-time. The dude's got 5 points (and one assist) in 14 games, and is playing with none of the physical intensity that he showed over and over in his "break-out" season. He also blows on faceoff again this year---by far the worst out of all of our centers.

At a certain point, it's up to Naz to earn more ice-time than he's getting.

He's been a dominant possession player, regardless of who has been on his wing. The production will come, and who gives a **** about faceoffs if he's driving possession? The 4 times out of 100 that he loses in compared to a dead even guy on the draws is **** all.

BeLeafer
11-05-2014, 05:05 PM
45.9% is hardly blowing. It's better than, say, Matt Duschene and Nathan McKinnon and only slightly behind such plugs as Stamkos and Tavares.

Deckie007
11-05-2014, 05:11 PM
He's been a dominant possession player, regardless of who has been on his wing. The production will come, and who gives a **** about faceoffs if he's driving possession? The 4 times out of 100 that he loses in compared to a dead even guy on the draws is **** all.

Yeah this. Possession is where it is at. People make way too big a deal out of faceoffs where the difference between a mediocre and "good" faceoff guy is minimal.

MindzEye
11-05-2014, 05:14 PM
Hey Reefer, take a look at this and tell me what you think of their methodology and analysis

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

a pertinent excerpt:



First, we looked at the average faceoff differential required to yield a goal differential. Overall this value is 76.5. This means that a player must win about 76 more faceoffs than they lose in order to obtain a goal differential for his team. A team that moves from winning 50% of their faceoffs to winning 60% of them gains just over 12 goals per season which is equivalent to two additional wins.


There's a ****ton more. But assuming that they're on point for a minute, if it takes 10% of a team's total faceoffs to move the dial 2 wins into the positive, then that would require a player like Kadri who at most would take 20% of his team's faceoffs, to be at 40% to be costing his team .4 wins. He's not of course, so his below average faceoff% would appear to be negatively effecting the team (based on the analysis on the PDF...and assuming he takes 20% of total faceoffs...which he probably doesn't but I leave for a flight soon and don't care enough to check right now) approx .16 wins

Yeah...seriously ****ing negligible.

Bleedsblue&white
11-05-2014, 05:16 PM
Some of the same people bitching that Gardiner was on the ice late in the game complained when Randy treats him harshly...I like the idea of letting the kid know you still have confidence in him.

Besides, he's getting too much grief for that one play that directly caused the goal. Nobody to that point was responding well to Arizona's fore check, and he didn't exactly receive the puck at the best time either. He obviously meant to swing it behind the net and around to whoever was standing there (can't remember now) and he screwed it up royally. I don't like those kind of mistakes, but one-offs don't concern me as much as some of the other things I see him starting to do too often.

BeLeafer
11-05-2014, 05:53 PM
Hey Reefer, take a look at this and tell me what you think of their methodology and analysis

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf
It looks sound and I'm not surprised by many of the results or conclusions. The one surprising one is that teams fare better on faceoffs when at home. But the idea that this provides an advantage and that it is situational is precisely what I'd expect.


a pertinent excerpt:





There's a ****ton more. But assuming that they're on point for a minute, if it takes 10% of a team's total faceoffs to move the dial 2 wins into the positive, then that would require a player like Kadri who at most would take 20% of his team's faceoffs, to be at 40% to be costing his team .4 wins. He's not of course, so his below average faceoff% would appear to be negatively effecting the team (based on the analysis on the PDF...and assuming he takes 20% of total faceoffs...which he probably doesn't but I leave for a flight soon and don't care enough to check right now) approx .16 wins

Yeah...seriously ****ing negligible.

Not sure about this, but this is the key conclusion they draw:


The results here suggest that there are strategic advantages to be gained by having the best faceoff
players take faceoffs outside the neutral zone and on special teams.

A lot of it is situational. I'm not wild about extrapolating data like this to broad generalizations of the outcome over a season. However, it is only one of many variables to consider when deploying players and not a wildly important one. In the instance of Bozak vs. Kadri, it almost certainly does not compensate for the large possession difference. In other words, Kadri's possession advantage > Bozak's faceoff advantage.

One thing they don't do in their logistic modelling is to look at the relationship between possession and faceoffs. It's quite interesting to my mind that while Kadri has significantly less success than Bozak, he's got much better possession numbers. It seems utterly counterintuitive ... should it not be the case that winning faceoffs improves possession? It seems almost self-evident. Thus, Bozak is a really shitty possession player.

zeke
11-06-2014, 09:51 AM
How many faceoffs does a top-6 player take in a game? 15 maybe?

so the difference between a 45% and 55% faceoff guys is 1-2 draws per game. Hard to see how that could be too important.

LeafGm
11-06-2014, 10:00 AM
Faceoffs aren't as important as they're made out to be---you won't get any disagreement from me there. But regardless of exactly how important faceoffs are, it's still a part of Kadri's game that's disappointing to see little-to-no improvement in.

As for him being a "dominant possession player", again, that's good to see and a nice improvement in his game. But since, at present, teams can't pick up points in the standings by out-CORSI'ing their opponents in lieu of out-scoring them, that doesn't make up for Kadri scoring at a 34 point pace about 15% of the way into this season. He has to be much better.

leafman101
11-06-2014, 10:08 AM
Yeah, the difference between a 45% and 55% faceoff guy may only be 1-2 draws a game, but those draws could be situationally important.

If you have a defensive zone faceoff with a minute left you are going to put Bozak on the ice, not Kadri. As a result Bozak has ~100 more draws this year than Kadri, which is an extra 7 draws a game. And that comes with ice time too.

You want your best centers to be good on faceoffs so you can have them on the ice.

MindzEye
11-06-2014, 10:11 AM
Faceoffs aren't as important as they're made out to be---you won't get any disagreement from me there. But regardless of exactly how important faceoffs are, it's still a part of Kadri's game that's disappointing to see little-to-no improvement in.

As for him being a "dominant possession player", again, that's good to see and a nice improvement in his game. But since, at present, teams can't pick up points in the standings by out-CORSI'ing their opponents in lieu of out-scoring them, that doesn't make up for Kadri scoring at a 34 point pace about 15% of the way into this season. He has to be much better.

The underlying point though is that if he's possessing the puck heavily, the points will come. He's on pace for 27 goals...roughly his customary pace. If you're concerned that Kadri is going to finish the season with 7 assists, well, I'd pick a different concern because that one is silly.

LeafGm
11-06-2014, 11:35 AM
The underlying point though is that if he's possessing the puck heavily, the points will come. He's on pace for 27 goals...roughly his customary pace. If you're concerned that Kadri is going to finish the season with 7 assists, well, I'd pick a different concern because that one is silly.
Where did I say anything about how many assists Kadri will finish with? All I'm saying is that he hasn't been nearly as good enough so far this season.

If you disagree because you think, in terms of performance, a good CORSI rating is fine and points are a secondary concern, then more power to you.

MindzEye
11-06-2014, 11:39 AM
Where did I say anything about how many assists Kadri will finish with? All I'm saying is that he hasn't been nearly as good enough so far this season.

If you disagree because you think, in terms of performance, a good CORSI rating is fine and points are a secondary concern, then more power to you.
You're extrapolating kadris point totals bases on his existing stats...and claiming that it's not good enough when the only category he's struggling in is assists. Everything else suggests that he's been strong so far this season. You're stating that he hasn't been good enough based on his assist total alone. So yeah, if you're concerned that he's going to finish with 7 assists, knock yourself out.

He's possessing the puck at an excellent rate and his goal totals are on point, you're really worried about his lack of assists to this point?

LeafGm
11-06-2014, 11:52 AM
You're extrapolating kadris point totals bases on his existing stats...and claiming that it's not good enough when the only category he's struggling in is assists. Everything else suggests that he's been strong so far this season. You're stating that he hasn't been good enough based on his assist total alone. So yeah, if you're concerned that he's going to finish with 7 assists, knock yourself out.

He's possessing the puck at an excellent rate and his goal totals are on point, you're really worried about his lack of assists to this point?
I'm not extrapolating anything. You're the one that keeps on bringing up the number of assists/points Kadri's going to finish with this season. All I'm talking about is how he's performed so far.

Nazem Kadri, our most talented offensive center, who scored at a ~PPG pace the last time we made it into the playoffs, has scored at a 34 point pace thus far this season. That's not good enough, and we need him to do better. I don't really see what's so difficult to grasp here.

leafman101
11-06-2014, 12:25 PM
Kadri's peripheral stats suggest the production will come. Not only is his corsi good, but his Onice SH% is 8.16 (9.12 last year, 14.02 the year before) and his PDO is 993.

He has to produce more though.

zeke
11-06-2014, 12:35 PM
He's been pretty poopy with the puck the last couple of games, IMO. He was creating more earlier on.

Though his defensive game has been good all year.