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GDT - Leafs vs. Flightless Birds | 7:30PM EST TSN4

LeafGm

LeafGm

Well-known member
Well, this is a tough one tonight---the Leafs have to be careful not to look past the lowly Penguins to their game against the juggernaut Buffalo Sabres tomorrow night.

For the Leafs, Jonathan Bernier is the starter. The Penguins are keeping Marc-Andre Fleury on the bench and starting backup Thomas Greiss.

On the line for the Leafs is a three-game win streak, in which they've managed to score at least five goals in each game. The Penguins are coming off a Jekyll & Hyde-esque pair of games where they got blown out by the Rangers 5-0 in their last game, but beat the Sabres 6-1 three nights prior to that. Overall, the Penguins are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, which is the exact same mark as the Leafs in their past 10.

As far as lineups go, besides the goalies, I haven't seen any news, but it's probably safe to assume the lineup that pasted the Bruins will still be intact:

James van Riemsdyk - Tyler Bozak - Phil Kessel
Daniel Winnik - Nazem Kadri - David Clarkson
Leo Komarov - Peter Holland - Mike Santorelli
Josh Leivo - Trevor Smith - Richard Panik

Dion Phaneuf - Cody Franson
Jake Gardiner - Roman Polak
Morgan Rielly - Stephane Robidas

Jonathan Bernier
James Reimer

Go Leafs Go!
 
Bernier again and Reimer vs. Sabres tomorrow eh?

It's gonna be a tough one, and it's interesting how Randy plays against the Crosby line ... will he play fire with fire or will he assign the 3rd line the honourable duty of checking #87.

Let's not remember, it wasn't just the Bruins who embarrassed us early this season. The pens did too.

Back to back revenge will be extra sweet.
 
Pens starting Griess; gotta say having both Bernier and Reimer really helps in these back to back situations.
 
ccf% = Zone-start Adjusted 5v5 Close percentage
cf% = Zone-start Adjusted 5v5 Total percentage


Line 1

C T.Bozak (28): 16gms, 6gls, 15pts, 46.3ccf%, 45.1cf%, 18:56 (82gms, 31gls, 77pts) ---- 55.6fo%
C S.Crosby (27): 14gms, 7gls, 24pts, 62.0ccf%, 58.2cf%, 18:42 (82gms, 41gls, 141pts) ---- 48.2fo%

W P.Kessel (27): 16gms, 10gls, 21pts, 49.5ccf%, 47.4cf%, 18:25 (82gms, 51gls, 108pts)
W C.Kunitz (35): 14gms, 8gls, 16pts, 63.3ccf%, 57.0cf%, 17:58 (82gms, 47gls, 94pts)

W J.Vanriemsdyk (25): 16gms, 7gls, 14pts, 46.7ccf%, 44.4cf%, 19:44 (82gms, 36gls, 72pts)
W P.Dupuis (35): 14gms, 4gls, 9pts, 49.6ccf%, 48.8cf%, 16:21 (82gms, 23gls, 53pts)

Line 2

C N.Kadri (24): 16gms, 4gls, 7pts, 58.0ccf%, 54.5cf%, 16:03 (82gms, 21gls, 36pts) ---- 49.6fo%
C E.Malkin (28): 14gms, 6gls, 17pts, 47.3ccf%, 51.0cf%, 18:25 (82gms, 35gls, 100pts) ---- 46.3fo%

W D.Winnik (29): 14gms, 1gls, 7pts, 57.7ccf%, 51.1cf%, 15:19 (82gms, 6gls, 41pts)
W P.Hornqvist (27): 14gms, 9gls, 18pts, 62.6ccf%, 59.6cf%, 18:04 (82gms, 53gls, 105pts)

W D.Clarkson (30): 16gms, 4gls, 5pts, 47.7ccf%, 47.0cf%, 15:50 (82gms, 21gls, 26pts)
W N.Spaling (26): 14gms, 2gls, 4pts, 50.0ccf%, 49.4cf%, 14:12 (82gms, 12gls, 23pts)

Line 3

C P.Holland (23): 16gms, 4gls, 8pts, 47.0ccf%, 45.4cf%, 12:12 (82gms, 21gls, 41pts) ---- 42.6fo%
C B.Sutter (25): 14gms, 4gls, 8pts, 51.8ccf%, 49.4cf%, 17:40 (82gms, 23gls, 47pts) ---- 53.0fo%

W L.Komarov (27): 16gms, 1gls, 11pts, 48.0ccf%, 49.3cf%, 15:59 (82gms, 5gls, 56pts)
W B.Comeau (28): 14gms, 3gls, 8pts, 51.3ccf%, 50.6cf%, 14:15 (82gms, 18gls, 47pts)

W M.Santorelli (29): 16gms, 2gls, 8pts, 48.3ccf%, 50.2cf%, 13:14 (82gms, 10gls, 41pts)
W S.Downie (27): 14gms, 2gls, 7pts, 48.9ccf%, 46.7cf%, 12:20 (82gms, 12gls, 41pts)

Line 4

C T.Smith (29): 2gms, 0gls, 1pts, 38.9ccf%, 41.2cf%, 12:19 (82gms, 0gls, 41pts) ---- 52.9fo%
C M.Goc (31): 14gms, 1gls, 1pts, 45.6ccf% 51.2cf%, 12:12 (82gms, 6gls, 6pts) ---- 55.7fo%

W R.Panik (23): 15gms, 3gls, 4pts, 49.2ccf%, 46.1cf%, 9:13 (82gms, 16gls, 22pts)
W C.Adams (37): 14gms, 1gls, 1pts, 43.4ccf%, 48.6cf%, 9:45 (82gms, 6gls, 6pts)

W J.Leivo (21): 3gms, 1gls, 1pts, 48.2ccf%, 48.7cf%, 8:30 (82gms, 27gls, 27pts)
W B.Bennett (23): 1gms, 0gls, 0pts, 00.0ccf%, 61.5cf%, 9:35 (82gms, 0gls, 0pts)




Pair 1

D D.Phaneuf (29): 16gms, 1gls, 8pts, 52.1ccf%, 49.7cf%, 23:14 (82gms, 5gls, 41pts)
D P.Martin (33): 14gms, 1gls, 4pts, 54.4ccf%, 53.1cf%, 22:00 (82gms, 6gls, 23pts)

D C.Franson (27): 14gms, 2gls, 10pts, 54.1ccf%, 50.1cf%, 19:37 (82gms, 12gls, 59pts)
D K.Letang (27): 14gms, 3gls, 12pts, 56.3ccf%, 56.5cf%, 24:20 (82gms, 18gls, 70pts)

Pair 2

D R.Polak (28): 16gms, 2gls, 3pts, 51.6ccf%, 47.1cf%, 21:30 (82gms, 10gls, 15pts)
D C.Ehrhoff (32): 14gms, 0gls, 4pts, 51.8ccf%, 50.7cf%, 20:57 (82gms, 0gls, 23pts)

D J.Gardiner (24): 14gms, 1gls, 4pts, 43.9ccf%, 45.0cf%, 19:08 (82gms, 6gls, 23pts)
D R.Bortuzzo (25): 4gms, 1gls, 2pts, 42.4ccf%, 45.2cf%, 14:32 (82gms, 21gls, 41pts)

Pair 3

D M.Rielly (20): 15gms, 2gls, 6pts, 53.0ccf%, 50.0cf%, 18:30 (82gms, 11gls, 33pts)
D S.Despres (23): 14gms, 1gls, 5pts, 54.1ccf%, 48.7cf%, 13:53 (82gms, 6gls, 29pts)

D S.Robidas (37): 15gms, 0gls, 3pts, 44.4ccf%, 47.6cf%, 17:10 (82gms, 0gls, 16pts)
D R.Scuderi (36): 14gms, 0gls, 2pts, 56.6ccf%, 50.2cf%, 17:32 (82gms, 0gls, 12pts)




Starting Goalies

G J.Bernier (26): 11gms, .917sv%
G T.Greiss (28): 2gms, .923sv%

Backup Goalies

G J.Reimer (26): 7gms, .925sv%
G M.Fleury (30): 12gms, .924sv%




Injured / Suspended

W J.Lupul (31): 9gms, 2gls, 3pts, 65.1ccf%, 59.8cf%, 18:09 (82gms, 18gls, 27pts)
W D.Booth (30): ------
W B.Kozun (24): 5gms, 0gls, 1pts, 32.3ccf%, 36.2cf%, 8:54 (82gms, 0gls, 16pts)
W C.Ashton (23): 3gms, 0gls, 0pts, 56.3ccf%, 50.0cf%, 6:09 (82gms, 0gls, 0pts)

D O.Maatta (20): 10gms, 1gls, 6pts, 53.6ccf%, 55.6cf%, 19:59 (82gms, 8gls, 49pts)
 
I have a bad feeling about this one. I wonder why ... zeke, you stats monster!

Hope the Leafs surprise us.
 
number17 said:
zeke i always wondered ... how do u 'adjust for' zone starts? What do you do to tweak the %?
Click to expand...

I believe you take the Corsi for Offensive Zone, Neutral Zone, Defensive Zone starts individually and make sure the defensive and offensive are weighted equally.

Example:

paneug1.png
 
hockeylover said:
I believe you take the Corsi for Offensive Zone, Neutral Zone, Defensive Zone starts individually and make sure the defensive and offensive are weighted equally.

Example:

paneug1.png
Click to expand...

something is not right in those pie charts
 
number17 said:
zeke i always wondered ... how do u 'adjust for' zone starts? What do you do to tweak the %?
Click to expand...

I don't tweak them, but the guy running puckalytics.com does.

I believe he's running on a calculation that the first zone starts only really affect the first 10 seconds after each faceoff, so he just cuts out any data from those 10 seconds.

A little ham handed, but it's probably pretty effective and still better than just looking at raw unadjusted data imo.
 
zeke said:
I don't tweak them, but the guy running puckalytics.com does.

I believe he's running on a calculation that the first zone starts only really affect the first 10 seconds after each faceoff, so he just cuts out any data from those 10 seconds.

A little ham handed, but it's probably pretty effective and still better than just looking at raw unadjusted data imo.
Click to expand...

Doesn't that end up getting rid of a lot of data points though?

Seems like people calculate this kind of stuff in different ways, makes it kinda murky.
 
hockeylover said:
Doesn't that end up getting rid of a lot of data points though?
Click to expand...

yep, it does shrink the sample size.

Seems like people calculate this kind of stuff in different ways, makes it kinda murky.
Click to expand...

they're all trying to get to the same place. the best ones will win out in the end. though if baseball is any example, some disputes between competing stats never end.
 
I'm getting really tired of the new TSN channels....almost feels like life imitating art. How long until we're watching games on "The Ocho", TSN 8....followed by NCAA cricket.
 
hockeylover said:
Doesn't that end up getting rid of a lot of data points though?

Seems like people calculate this kind of stuff in different ways, makes it kinda murky.
Click to expand...

That's why I have to laugh at worshipping these things like they're gospel. A lot of these "adjustments" and weightings are totally arbitrary. Who says the adjustments are correct? who has vetted any of this stuff scientifically?

It's all very amateurish.
 
Volcanologist said:
That's why I have to laugh at worshipping these things like they're gospel. A lot of these "adjustments" and weightings are totally arbitrary. Who says the adjustments are correct? who has vetted any of this stuff scientifically?

It's all very amateurish.
Click to expand...

are you asking honestly to understand them, or just raising questions to csst doubt and ignore them.

the adjustments arn't arbitrary, but determined by pretty rigorous analysis of what the effects of zone starts actually are.

is it amateurish? maybe. not sure what it means, really..but the amateurs have been kicking the pros' butts.
 
zeke said:
are you asking honestly to understand them, or just raising questions to csst doubt and ignore them.

the adjustments arn't arbitrary, but determined by pretty rigorous analysis of what the effects of zone starts actually are.

is it amateurish? maybe. not sure what it means, really..but the amateurs have been kicking the pros' butts.
Click to expand...

But two people can say "CF adjusted for zone starts" and come to two different numbers... the example being that you just said the way this guy does adjustments for zone starts is to take away the 10 seconds after the faceoff... and another guy does it by simply weighting zone starts in the defensive zone/offensive zone. I think that makes things sort of difficult. Is there an agreed upon method?
 
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